Expectations and the AL West

by Mahon on May 14, 2005 8:41 PM CDT

Do the Rangers have a shot at winning the West?

A few things would have to go right for Texas to take the West.

1) Oakland will have to be a non-factor.
Right now, Oakland is struggling with injuries. Crosby, Swisher, Bradford, and Harden are out. Their hitters are slumping terribly; as it stands, Chavez is 4 for his last 32 and is hitting a paltry .190. Byrnes isn't hitting. And the strength of the A's team over the first few weeks, the young pitching, is proving inconsistent. Blanton and Haren have been hit-or-miss lately, and Saarloos has been terrible. With Harden probably missing time, their rotation stands to get a whole lot worse. I thought Oakland would finish second, but it is looking like they will struggle to be a .500 team. I'd peg them for 78-82 wins.

2) The Angels will have to underperform.
With Escobar headed to the DL, the Angels' rotation is getting worse. Stoneman's offseason moves probably made their offense worse (and more expensive). This Angels team will probably win 85-89 games.

3) The Rangers' starting pitching will have to remain consistent.
I expect Drese to be at least an average pitcher, and Rogers to be above average. Young seems to be becoming a solid number three man in the rotation. CHP may have finally found a little of what he lost. Astacio/RicRod/??? are wild cards. If the rotation can pick up the ailing bullpen, Rangers' pitching will be in good shape.

4) Offensive holes need to be filled.
FREE GERALD LAIRD. Barajas is killing this team, and Alomar is playing way over his head. Bring Laird up and give him a month or two to show that he belongs. If Hidalgo doesn't start producing (he seems to be heating up), trade from depth (Adrian Gonzalez) to acquire a bat at the deadline. I worry that Hart will screw this up, but his trading resume hasn't been all that bad.

I fully expect the Rangers to finish the year with 82-86 wins. If all of the above goes right, the Rangers could be in the playoff hunt once again come September.

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That seems reasonable to me...

Laird and Botts replacing Barajas and Hidalgo would be pretty fair upgrades. Dellucci isn't going to continue to play like this all season (he's 5 for his last 26, and today's walk was his first in a week), so relying on him is problematic.

If they aren't going to go with Botts, they should be kicking the tires on guys like Nevin, Klesko, Giles, Cameron, Sweeney, Durazo and Lawton come the trade deadline. With Hidalgo looking like a bust, that's the biggest hole that needs addressing offensively.

As for Oakland, I think I overestimated them coming into this year. Their offense has been abysmal, and while Dan Johnson could help, I don't see that they have the horses to rip off a hot streak like the one they pulled off back in 2001 to dig out of their early hole.

This team could actually win the division, which makes the failure to improve this offseason even more damning. But they are going to have to make a couple of moves if they are going to take advantage...

by Adam J. Morris on May 14, 2005 9:36 PM CDT reply actions

10 games over

I think 10 games over .500 is within reach, and the only question is whether the Angels can beat that. In my wildest dreams, we pull off a good run in May against some beatable teams, then float at about 10 games over until the trade deadline, at which point some holes get addressed, then we hang on for dear life.

I sure hope the farm system is deep enough to keep the bullpen in working order. It's nice not having to worry about our starters, that's for damn sure. And the hitting seems fine, too. Dellucci has been playing like an alien, sure, but on the flip side, we've managed to survive carrying Barajas, Matthews and Hidalgo for this far.

by Observer on May 14, 2005 11:00 PM CDT reply actions

This would be terrible

Now, don't get me wrong, I am a huge Rangers fan, but this would be terrible. This would send the message that what management has done are steps in the right direction. The AL West has suddenly gone from one of the most competitive divisions to one of the least. Winning the AL West is not much of a feat anymore unless you win by a large margin. No team is doing that right now, which means an early exit for the team that wins. I want the Rangers to win, but I don't want the status quo. Hicks wants to build a competitive team on a minimal budget. This can not be done with long-term success. Look at the A's, they are struggling mightily right now. If they keep this up, I think it would be difficult to believe that they will bounce back to form next year. Personally, I find it hard to root for the Rangers this year because every win supports the status quo, but I hate to see them lose.

by pfe1223 on May 15, 2005 9:31 AM CDT reply actions

RE:Expectations and the AL West

Are you rethinking this yet?

1) Oakland will have to be a non-factor.
Right now, Oakland is struggling with injuries. Crosby, Swisher, Bradford, and Harden are out. Their hitters are slumping terribly; as it stands, Chavez is 4 for his last 32 and is hitting a paltry .190. Byrnes isn't hitting. And the strength of the A's team over the first few weeks, the young pitching, is proving inconsistent. Blanton and Haren have been hit-or-miss lately, and Saarloos has been terrible. With Harden probably missing time, their rotation stands to get a whole lot worse. I thought Oakland would finish second, but it is looking like they will struggle to be a .500 team. I'd peg them for 78-82 wins.

by Texasportsfan on May 27, 2005 10:05 AM CDT reply actions