An almost-final payroll situation update

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 28, 2006 1:23 PM CST in News

With Zito now off the board, time to do a look at what should be just about the last update of the roster and payroll situation...

The following players are under contract for 2007:

Kevin Millwood -- $9.45 million (prorating deferred signing bonus and discounting deferral)

Mark Teixeira -- $9.4 million

Vicente Padilla -- $9 million

Kenny Lofton -- $6 million

Eric Gagne -- $6 million (plus possible incentives)

Hank Blalock -- $4.75 million

Frank Catalanotto -- $3.5 million

Michael Young -- $3.5 million

Ron Mahay -- $1.25 million

Marlon Byrd -- $750,000 (estimate)

Miguel Ojeda -- $450,000

That's $54.05 million. Add in the $7 million or so for ARod, and the team is at around $61.05 million.

The Rangers have two significant arbitration-eligible players...Brad Wilkerson and Akinori Otsuka. The Rangers are looking at about $4.5 million for Wilkerson and $3.5 million for Otsuka.

The Rangers have also indicated offered arbitration to Rick Bauer and Joaquin Benoit. I'd estimate that those two would come in at about $1.25 million apiece, although I expect one of those two to be dealt this spring.

That gets the payroll to $70.3 million, if either Benoit or Bauer gets moved.

The starting catcher, right fielder and second baseman are going to be Laird, Cruz and Kinsler, and those three are looking at about $400K apiece.

You are going to have at least 3 more bullpen guys to go with Otsuka, Benoit/Bauer, Gagne and Mahay. My guess is that they will go with Wilson, Littleton, and Francisco in the pen. Those three will come in at about $1.5 million, combined. Brandon McCarthy and Robinson Tejeda each seem slotted in rotation slots, at about $400K. The Rangers seem committed to going with a fifth starter from within the organization -- Josh Rupe or Kam Loe would be my guess.

That gets the payroll to about $74.2 million, with a backup infielder and another positional player still needed.

With Marlon Byrd in the fold, I think Jason Botts will be the "another positional player," getting about 300 ABs at DH, although the Rangers are supposedly still looking at adding a righthanded bat. Craig Wilson is the name that jumps out at me, of the guys still out there.

With the Rangers out of the running for Zito, they may also be willing to spend a little more on a utility infielder. Not sure who is out there at this point, though. They could also conceivably splurge on a more expensive backup catcher option than Ojeda.

Anyway, let's assume the Rangers spend $2 million on those two slots, combined.

That gets payroll to $76.2 million, for a team that looks like this:

Cat DH
Lofton CF
Young SS
Teixeira 1B
Wilkerson LF
Kinsler 2B
Blalock 3B
Cruz RF
Laird C

Rotation:

Millwood
Padilla
McCarthy
Tejeda
Rupe

Pen:

Otsuka
Gagne
Francisco
Littleton
Wilson
Mahay
Benoit/Bauer

Bench:

Byrd
Botts/C. Wilson
Mystery infielder
Ojeda

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Comments

I was just thinking about Craig Wilson.

I thought the Giants should've picked him up instead of Aurilla.

I would hold out for something better, if I were JD.

by rooster on Dec 28, 2006 1:32 PM CST reply actions

hmmm

I'd still like another proven starter, but I really like the way the bullpen and starting lineup looks... come on spring training!

Chuck Norris grinds his coffee with his teeth and boils the water with his own rage.

by hotshot215 on Dec 28, 2006 1:38 PM CST reply actions

meh

I felt like Daniels faced a very, very difficult task this offseason, going in (although partly because of his mistake in dealing Young and Gonzalez), and I think that he took a reasonable approach to the offseason and avoided some much worse decisions. But all in all, looking at what they are fielding and what they're paying for it, meh.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 28, 2006 1:39 PM CST reply actions

Meh

I like their top three starters, although I'm not sure the third is ready to be third. I'd really like to see another pitcher added, or at least a bat. I don't like the lineup at all.

If they field that team going into the season, I think they may end up a little better than .500 and that's about it. If lightning strikes they could do better, but it could always be worse, too. If you look at what would have to happen for that group to win even 90 games, it's pretty daunting.

http://tinyurl.com/vxkvz

by Dustin on Dec 28, 2006 2:32 PM CST up reply actions

So

Why doesn't Hicks take that $14-$16 million a year he was willing to blow on Zito and immediately put it towards contract extensions offers to Young and Teixeira? Our front four in the rotation is set for the next few years. Why not nail down our two best players for a long time too when Hicks now has the money to do so?

by Rangerchick on Dec 28, 2006 1:52 PM CST reply actions

He may

However, I don't know that either Young or, in particular, Teixeira is all that hyped on talking extension right now.

If we're going to do extensions, I'd target Kinsler, and maybe Laird.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 28, 2006 1:58 PM CST up reply actions

im praying

that lineup doesnt totally bomb

by kumar75150 on Dec 28, 2006 2:00 PM CST reply actions

Wilkerson and Cruz...

..will go a long way in determining how good the Rangers can be. I think a healthy Wilkerson will be noticeably better next season (an OPS back in the .800s). I am not as optimistic about Cruz, he wasn't all that impressive last season, IMO.

by bflood36 on Dec 28, 2006 2:02 PM CST reply actions

Perceptive

Those guys in the 5 and 8 spots (either way) are going to have some opportunities with RISP. How they fare may be an indicator of how well the Rangers produce runs, at that.

On Cruz - - this really is his golden opportunity, given age, being held back once or twice in MKE, etc.

by Ed Coffin on Dec 28, 2006 5:39 PM CST up reply actions

seems like...

a so-so lineup, good pen, and so-so rotation to me. Should be competitive due to our division , however.

rage against the gold club

by erikj07 on Dec 28, 2006 2:31 PM CST reply actions

Meh is right.

To echo Zwica's comments earlier JD had a tremendous challenge this off season. While he did accomplish stability in the rotation by resigning Padilla and trading for McCarthy, I see little hope for this team to win the west. It is possible but not probable. Too thin in the rotation, offense is not stellar as in the past. I guess $70M does not buy what it used to buy.
All in all I have no specific compaints about JD and Hicks decisions this off season other than they did not do enough. There is still time to improve the team but as of now it lools like another 3rd place finish and 80-86 wins.
I wonder how the Ranger payroll will stack up against the league.

by Bigfan16 on Dec 28, 2006 2:33 PM CST reply actions

The lineup

The thing about it that is encouraging, to me, is that there shouldn't be any black holes out there.

Nate Silver had a post about the Padres today, and how their lineup probably makes them the favorite in the N.L. West, because even though there's no one there that figures to be great, they all project to be better than average (above .260) in terms of EQA.

Cruz and Wilkerson are question marks, but even factoring that in, I think every Ranger starter should be a .260+ guy in terms of EQA.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 28, 2006 2:44 PM CST reply actions

Botts

Adam do you see Botts having the potential for a .260+ EQA?

by brian mac on Dec 28, 2006 2:54 PM CST up reply actions

Absolutely

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 28, 2006 3:03 PM CST up reply actions

In AAA

by BurntOrange on Dec 28, 2006 3:48 PM CST up reply actions

Hells

yes.

Jason Botts: 500+ AB's in '07, or bust!!!

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2006 3:14 PM CST up reply actions

#11?

;)

by Brett Perryman on Dec 28, 2006 3:17 PM CST up reply actions

agree on offense

I agree and was arguing this case with a Mets fan friend of mine. He said that the lineup lacked punch, and while I agree, I see a lot of solid bats up and down that lineup.

Lofton and Cat should be on base at least 35% of the time each, so MY and Tex will rarely be batting with the bases empty. Behind Tex, you'll have a r/l combo of Kinsler, Laird, Cruz, Blalock and Wilkie. All of those guys are reasonable bets for a 275/350-ish/450 season line.

So instead of a Boston-esque lineup where 2 guys drive in 125 runs each and the rest of the team helps on occasion, we'll likely have a lineup with 5+ guys with 80+ RBIs

by The other Thomas on Dec 28, 2006 6:15 PM CST up reply actions

Hicks

Has he ever came out and said a figure he was looking at for payroll? Last I heard he was still saying was contingent on how many fans come out.

by brian mac on Dec 28, 2006 2:51 PM CST reply actions

I like Craig Wilson

but if we pick him up, we'd be doing so for the express purpose of taking AB's away from my boy Botts. We'd be essentially banishing Botts to OKC for eternity in favor of an older, more expensive, no switch-hitting version of what we already have.

This would cause me to eat a live kitten in protest.

Jason Botts: 500+ AB's in '07, or bust!!!

by thedirkatron on Dec 28, 2006 2:54 PM CST reply actions

ya know...

...we've really been slacking with the "baby-punching/cute animal-eating" metaphors...

Your Texas Rangers...laying the foundation for 2007, in a winnable AL West. Never thought I'd say that!

by RangerMoto on Dec 28, 2006 3:54 PM CST up reply actions

I know

This is my attempt to begin a grass roots campaign to bring that whole thing back.

If it doesn't take I'm going to set a lemur on fire and throw it at my sickly grandmother.

Jason Botts: 500+ AB's in '07, or bust!!!

by thedirkatron on Dec 29, 2006 11:57 AM CST up reply actions

Don't do it!

If you bring back that tired habit, I might have to bulldoze an elderly nun holding a baby while firebombing an orphanage.

by t ball on Dec 29, 2006 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

2 spots - the rotation 5-spot and a pen guy ...

... to be divvied up between Loe, Rupe, Bauer and Benoit in ST comp - Volquez a distant chance. Figure an injury might open up at least a temp spot for somebody ... but then again, a surprise mystery arm could have a sizzling camp [Diamond?, NRI?] and het the comp right back up. Not to mention EG [or was it TR?] wondering whether the Rangers might break camp with a 6-man pen and go with an additional utility glove/bat of some sort. The squeeze could be on, Jack - imagine Masset in that mix as well. phew

Some decent pitchers are due to be disappointed at the end of ST - or else traded away just before the season opens.

Rangers Farm Probables

by shroomer on Dec 28, 2006 3:21 PM CST reply actions

Personally...

...I'd be fine with Loe and Rupe filling the 5th starter/middle-long man role, and Benoit and Bauer shipped out for whatever magic beans we can get from a team need a bullpen arm in late March.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 28, 2006 3:24 PM CST up reply actions

middle relief arms

JD could move plenty of RHed arms in ST if he needs to.

by The other Thomas on Dec 28, 2006 6:19 PM CST up reply actions

I would think

that 2005 taught us never to take your pen depth for granted. I'd rather hang on to them and see how they perform. If they fail, you can release, send them down. If they succeed and you've got guys pushing for jobs in the minors, you can trade them for better value.

I'd just as soon hold onto our depth in the pen rather than moving guys for the sake of moving them.

by FirebatM3 on Dec 28, 2006 6:39 PM CST up reply actions

Options

The option situation makes it a challenge to keep all of them.

Benoit and (I assume) Bauer are out of options, so, to keep both of them, unless someone is injured out of Spring Training, you would have to option out everyone who didn't win the 5th starter spot (i.e., all but one of Rupe, Loe and Koronka) and all but one of Francisco, Littleton and Feldman. I don't know how much sense that makes.

by BurntOrange on Dec 28, 2006 7:09 PM CST up reply actions

The more I've thought about it

I think I like Loe in that 5th spot, especially given that Danks is gone (with the idea that McCarthy is in place of some yahoo like Lieber). Koronka might actually be my second choice.

Also, whichever of Rupe and Loe doesn't get that rotation spot could be a real asset to the pen, not just some random middle guy. Loe is very tough on righties, and I don't know that the Jeff Nelson type comparisons that he was getting earlier on are that far off base, if he drops back down and is throwing 3/4's or whatever.

And last thing, I like Volquez in the pen. I may look really stupid if they keep him starting in AAA, he figures some FB command and a breaking ball out, and becomes a quality starter sooner rather than later. And Benoit/Bauer may be valuable enough that you don't want to give one of them away to keep Volquez early in the season, but I like him in middle relief. I think that he has more upside in that role than some of these other guys and could be a real asset to the team that way.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 28, 2006 3:54 PM CST up reply actions

Koronka

Knew I was forgetting somebody ... BGL was hyping his odds the other day for the 5th spot - decent endorsement that. Likewise, IIRC, he seemed down on Volquez' odds to stick outta ST, FWIW.

Adding names I forgot just accentuates my 'squeeze' point though. Maybe instead of Meno's 'magic beans' we can replace Rasner in the system with our ST pen castoffs. [sniff, I miss Jake]

Benoit's recent Ranger career = http://tinyurl.com/yyjdld

Rangers Farm Probables

by shroomer on Dec 28, 2006 4:16 PM CST up reply actions

Pitching staff

I don't really see how there's room for Koronka, Benoit, Bauer, and/or Volquez to start the season, if everyone pitches the way I would expect them to.

I would go with a rotation of Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Tejeda, and Rupe, with Loe as the long man, Mahay and Wilson as the lefthanders, Francisco and Littleton in middle relief, and Gagne and Otsuka for the 8th and 9th. That seems to me to be the best combination of 12 guys we have.

I would try to trade Benoit and Bauer for whatever I could get for them.

Then, in AAA, the rotation might look like Volquez, Diamond, Koronka, Rheinecker and I guess Dickey, with Hurley starting the year back in AA (although I don't know the option situation with either Koronka or Rheinecker).

And I guess you would also have Feldman in the bullpen in AAA as well.

I've probably left someone out, as well.

by BurntOrange on Dec 28, 2006 4:43 PM CST up reply actions

Koronka and Rheinecker

still have an option I think. There isn't room for all of those guys on the staff, and that's why you might not want Volquez in the pen. But from a competitive standpoint, I think it's possible that he's a big upgrade over a Benoit or Feldman (even though Feldman's pretty good) or maybe Bauer. You don't really know how it would go, I'd just be interested to see it. Lots of guys with two excellent pitches and so-so command excel in that role.

I'm not a fan of Rheinecker, so I don't really care whether he's in the AAA rotation, but he probably will be. I agree that Hurley will need to start in AA. Murray may have a shot at the AAA rotation, although I guess I could see him starting in AA too just to get his feet wet.

You could also have Haigwood, Galarraga, Mathis and Kometani in the AA rotation, and Herrera should be on that staff in some capacity.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 28, 2006 5:07 PM CST up reply actions

Volquez

I don't think it's Beniot or Feldman (or Bauer, for that matter) that he would need to be an update over.

I think your five righthanders in the bullpen, right now, should be Gagne, Aki, Francisco, Littleton, and Loe. I'm not sure, right now, he's an upgrade over any of them, so you might as well let him keep trying to start in AAA.

by BurntOrange on Dec 28, 2006 5:23 PM CST up reply actions

If they

are 100% with no injuries and keep Mahay as the second lefty, rather than a sixth righty, I agree. If anything goes wrong or changes, particularly if they struggle in the 6th or 7th inning for any reason, I'd be interested in him getting that shot, along with Feldman.

But looking at the last two years, I don't think that there's any reason to think that their entire pitching staff will be healthy at the start of the season.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 28, 2006 5:32 PM CST up reply actions

injuries and relievers

I agree that it's impossible to foresee the couple injury issues which will ultimately adjust the shape of the pen. Having Rupe, Feldman and Loe as 3 guys you like with options may be a factor as well. They may try to hoard RHed relievers and keep Benoit and Bauer to start the season, meaning a bunch of guys who are good enough to stick in the ML are headed to AAA.

by The other Thomas on Dec 28, 2006 6:36 PM CST up reply actions

Also

meant to add that I'm pretty discouraged by Volquez' inability to cope in the majors after pitching well in AAA and the seeming lack of progress in his weak spots over the past year. And that plays significantly into my feeling that rather than beating your head against the wall, you could use him in the pen and revisit starting later on.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 28, 2006 5:09 PM CST up reply actions

Volquez

70 walks in that many innings is just way too much. I think they have promoted him too aggressivelly last year (as well as of course the year before). That walk rate will never play at the big league level, so it seems he would have to work that out down there till he got another chance up here.

And if he doesn't work out his walk rate at AAA starting, then they can try relief

by The other Thomas on Dec 28, 2006 6:48 PM CST up reply actions

He will probably keep struggling as a starter

it's hard for a guy with only 2 pitches to make it as a starter in the bigs (and especially with his lack of command on his FB) but a fastball(?) change-up guy can have a lot of success in the 'pen.....so I agree with Zy.

But also, (as Brian's brother points out) because of the option/out of options situation, I could see Benoit and/or Bauer in and a couple of guys with options left being shuttled back to AAA, awaiting an injury.

by tklawless on Dec 29, 2006 12:16 AM CST up reply actions

Koronka

Am I the only one who likes him?

http://tinyurl.com/vxkvz

by Dustin on Dec 28, 2006 5:17 PM CST up reply actions

Koronka

I'm fine with him, although more as a 6th starter -- a guy down in OKC ready to come up if needed.

by BurntOrange on Dec 28, 2006 5:24 PM CST up reply actions

I think...

...he may end up being better than that.

http://tinyurl.com/vxkvz

by Dustin on Dec 28, 2006 5:29 PM CST up reply actions

I like him

as long as he has options. I don't love the idea of him being my first option as a fifth starter. Maybe he can be a swing guy once he's out of options. The A's got more out of converted/failed lefty starters than I thought they would, so maybe Koronka could match that.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 28, 2006 5:34 PM CST up reply actions

krunk

I like him. Better than league average in the #5 starter spot, apparently. I think he's a good guy to have around in the John Wasdin role, as Burnt Orange said.

CJ Wilson for Cy Young in 2012.

by trza on Dec 28, 2006 5:29 PM CST up reply actions

All in all,

a pretty good offseason in my book. I believe the new direction and approach from the manager will get more from this group than previous leadership.

What's more, I don't think Daniels is through. I think he knows he's close, but not quite there. I expect we see something else before opening day.

by ncrangerman on Dec 28, 2006 3:53 PM CST reply actions

lineup

I just pray that Teixeira doesn't get hurt.

CJ Wilson for Cy Young in 2012.

by trza on Dec 28, 2006 3:53 PM CST reply actions

x

Mark Mulder is still a possibility. Zito to the Giants may have even helped the odds of him ending up with Texas.

I'd be quite happy if it happens.

by alon91 on Dec 28, 2006 4:39 PM CST reply actions

it still is a possibilty

to get both Ohka and mulder

by myoungfan11 on Dec 28, 2006 4:46 PM CST up reply actions

Lineup

I agree for the most part that the lineup is dependent on at least a couple of players being better than they were last season. However, I am for test driving the current lineup, for the first month or so, in order to get a better feel for how each player is going to most likely perform.

I think JD has set himself up pretty nice for making a trade early on in the season, as he still has Otsuka as a potential trade chip(especially if Gagne pans out), and he should have enough budget room to possibly take on another team's salary dump. This way, if none of the group of Wilkerson/Cruz/Botts hits as well as hoped, then JD can make a move to make the necessary improvements.

Also, I don't know if he's signed anywhere yet, but I'd be interested in picking up John Thompson on a one year deal (or NRI if he doesn't get any offers), to fight it out for the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation, as I'd be more confident in Tejeda as a #5 starter.

No more Buck in 2007

by jcir454 on Dec 28, 2006 5:42 PM CST reply actions