Scott Lucas on the Danks/McCarthy trade

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 29, 2006 9:32 PM CST in News

Scott Lucas weighs in on The Trade, and appears to be more bullish on McCarthy than a lot of other commentators have been...

Good stuff...check it out...

Tweet Comment 12 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

That is good stuff

Scott always does a good job of breaking things down with harts and graphs.

by boomer1 on Dec 29, 2006 9:42 PM CST reply actions

Good Stuff, but.....

"Luck
....Giving him a team-average hit rate in 2006 results in ten more hits allowed and a full run added to his ERA."

I find it extremely hard to believe that 10 hits over the course of an entire season would raise his ERA by a full run.

by Topgun22 on Dec 29, 2006 9:44 PM CST reply actions

Thunder-stealer

Penalty Box? DONT THINK SO!!!!!!! And i wish everyone could stop writing that crap cause its gay...SUPER GAY!!!! NYTXfan!!!

by Brian Thomas on Dec 29, 2006 9:47 PM CST up reply actions

Ok, can someone explain to me

How does 10 extra hits on the season add up to a full run added to his ERA?

Am I reading that right?

Penalty Box? DONT THINK SO!!!!!!! And i wish everyone could stop writing that crap cause its gay...SUPER GAY!!!! NYTXfan!!!

by Brian Thomas on Dec 29, 2006 9:46 PM CST reply actions

it wasn't the 10 hits, it was something more to do with the unearned runs. The comment was "ten more hits and a full run added to his ERA." (emphasis mine). In other words, he didn't say, 10 hits, and therefore a full run added to his ERA.

Scott, care to help us understand that better?

by t ball on Dec 29, 2006 10:19 PM CST up reply actions

FWIW

I did the component ERA calculations. First I verified his 4.10 calculation as the stats stand. Then I added 10 hits, turning outs into hits essentially, with the assumption that two of the ten hits would be home runs (this is consistent with his 2006 home run rate), and calculated a 5.10 component ERA, one run higher exactly.

Now, adding two home runs may be inaccurate, given that the issue was his BABIP, and home runs aren't generally in play for fielders to turn into outs. When I did it with the ten hits but without the two home runs, it came out to 4.77.

by a bebop a rebop on Dec 29, 2006 10:45 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks for that work

we forgot about the outs, that is actually a swing of 20, not 10, and makes a lot more sense.

by t ball on Dec 29, 2006 10:49 PM CST up reply actions

Love Scott's breakdowns

Some stuff to feel good about in there.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 29, 2006 10:41 PM CST reply actions

WOW

that really helped sell me on this trade, I was a little skeptical

"I freakin' love Derosa... What a beast..... what a beastly laugh.." -miles

by dstar442005 on Dec 30, 2006 12:15 AM CST reply actions

Comments

I'm actually ambivalent about the trade. I wish I was better at evaluating minor leaguers. In this case, I'm a little skeptical of anyone who says Chicago or Texas "won" the trade. We won't know for quite a while. There's also a decent chance the outcome won't favor either team very strongly.

I guess my one sentence summary would be: "There's some interesting information hiding in McCarthy's stats, and the good outweighs the bad."

Regarding the one-run jump in ERA, that does seem awfully high, but I checked the calculations and they're correct. Here's some explanations:

--- I keep the number of batters faced as a constant in my calculations. If McCarthy allows ten more hits, he must retire ten fewer batters. Instead of pitching 84.2 innings, he has only 81.1.

--- Eighty-plus innings isn't that much. Ten extra hits increases McCarthy's WHIP from 1.30 to 1.48 (110 baserunners in 84.2 innings versus 120 in 81.1). That's a huge difference.

--- Per James's formula, the effect of extra baserunners on ERA is geometric, not additive. There's a "total bases allowed" component that is multiplied by a "total baserunners allowed" component.

For what it's worth, my Component ERA formula varies slightly from James. I found a way to incorporate doubles and triples allowed and have tweaked some of his multipliers based on recent seasons. It doesn't make a substantial difference.

by Lucas on Dec 30, 2006 2:34 AM CST reply actions