The Rangers and the A's
I was ruminating about this today, thinking about a small (but vocal) group of fans who see the Rangers as facing an insurmountable task in trying to catch the A's and Angels in 2007, who view the Rangers as a team locked into third place yet again.
Setting aside the Angels for a moment...what, exactly, is it about the A's that makes them a better team right now than the Rangers?
First of all, the A's weren't any better than the Rangers last season. The Rangers outscored their opponents by 51 runs last season, while the A's outscored their opponents by 44 runs. The Rangers' Pythagorean winning percentage -- generally more accurate than actual winning percentage in predicting future performance -- was better than the A's' last season.
On top of that, the A's lost their best hitter and best starting pitcher from last season.
I'm not writing the A's off, by any means...but at the same time, I have a hard time seeing why Oakland should be considered a playoff contender in 2007 if the Rangers are not a playoff contender.
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The A's
I feel that the A's manage their games well and do the best with what they have.
I am interested, does anyone else get a sense of hopelessness when we play the A's?
The Angels, just like every club, have major ifs. We know the feeling all to well of prospects not panning out and it can be overly demoralizing. The Angels lack of success recently with their abundance of minor league talent will eventually wear them down.
Their lineup is much like ours, one truly great slugger along with a surrounding cast of good hitters. Their starting staff is where they take the cake.
1.Lackey vs. Millwood Advantage Rangers
2. Colon vs. Padilla Advantage Rangers because of injury and pure fatness concerns
3 Santana vs McCarthy Advantage Angels
4. Weaver vs. Tejeda Advantage Angels
5 Escobar vs. Rupe Advantage Angels
Giving us
by Brett Perryman on Dec 30, 2006 10:48 PM CST up reply actions
Any of the five spots, really
by a bebop a rebop on Dec 31, 2006 12:23 AM CST up reply actions
Colon
Yep
by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2007 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
MLB.com previews
Washington gives me hope..
Not the Angels, maybe the A's
Now the A's are another story. I think that it all depends on the health of players who have not been healthy for them. They are just such a different team with Harden at the top of the rotation and Chavez, Crosby, and Swisher living up to reasonable expectations. However, it seems a good bet that at least one of those guys will get hurt or disappoint. Again, the Ranger's lineup is deeper than the A's (it is unquestionably butter), but pitching wins. You have to give them the bullpen edge. Their guys have done it while we have a lot of rookies. So it comes down to the starting rotation.
Harden beats Millwood
Loiaza beats Padilla
Haren and McCarthy are similar
Blanton beats Tejeda
Sarloos and Rupe are about equal
BUT
Loiaza loses to Millwood
Haren loses to Padilla
Blanton and McCarthy are similar
Sarloos loses to Tejeda
Kennedy? and Rupe are similar
At least, that's how I read it. I still think the Angels are the team to beat, but I don't think it's unreasonable to put the Ranger's on par with the A's.
Bullpen
Both the A's and Rangers
Harden was injured last year so there is a question mark on him but he has demonstrated he can pitch when healthy.
I think your wrong
Padilla beats Loiaza
by myoungfan11 on Dec 30, 2006 11:09 PM CST up reply actions
Dan Haren
He's better than McCarthy and certainly at least equal to Padilla.
by BurntOrange on Dec 31, 2006 12:00 AM CST up reply actions
I love the McCarthy trade (as all know)
Haren is the best starter on either staff
Not sure
by Dustin on Dec 31, 2006 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
I'm going sharky this...
And before anybody brings up Haren's and Harden's ages, I'd like to remind them that Millwood, at age 24, set career bests in ERA , innings, strikeouts, and WHIP. They may regress, too, if you want to call it that.
by Dustin on Dec 31, 2006 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
That's fair
217-212-53-163
223-224-45-176
Wouldn't surprise me to see the BB/K ratio continue to improve.
Not to be argumentative
by Dustin on Dec 31, 2006 10:45 AM CST up reply actions
Age/innings
If the Rangers make the playoffs, he would likely be up around 180 or 190 innings and should get some careful handling and extra rest.
Don't disagree
a
Looking Back
AJM are you calling me vocal?
As my Dad would say, "If the shoe fits then wear it." I'll defend the A's for a minute as long as I can root for the Rangers.
As for the A's. Lets start with recent history. Since 2000 their worse season has been 88 wins. The Ranger best season was 89 wins. The A's averaged 94.8 wins in the past 7 seasons. The Rangers have had one season over .500 and averaged 76.4 games won in the same 7 seasons.
Right now the A's have a better rotation top to bottom. Haren, Harden, Blanton, Loaizza and Saarloos all can pitch and keep their ERA under 5.00. Assuming the Rangers go with Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Tejeda and Rupe then it is a good bet that 1 or 2 of those guys have an ERA above 5.00. Granted our rotation is getting better but lets not discount the A's young staff.
Their pen is not too shabby either. The team did have a 4.21 ERA last year as compared to the Rangers' 4.61. I'll let you do the math on the park effect.
The A's also comitted 14 fewer errors last year than the Rangers. It's a marginal difference but one that makes a difference. One defensive edge the Rangers had was on double plays.
Given the fact that they won 13 more games last year, have a more solid rotation IMO, and generally play a little better defense, I would say they are a team to beat until we beat them.
Let's not forget the Angels who won 9 more games last year and suffered some significant injuries along the way.
Bottom line is the Rangers will have to prove they can win. I will agree the line-up is as good as last year, the defense may be better, the pen is looking great and the rotation is about the same as we entered ST last year. (For all the screaming at the last comment, Eaton was healthy going into ST.) I will also concur that our rotation has more potential than in many, many, many years. I will not agree that we are a favorite over either the A's or Angels at this point. But that is why they play the games.
I fail.....
I'd say it's a stretch to even look at the 2004-2005 seasons.
That said clearly the A's were better last year. The Rangers are maybe slightly better going into next season on paper. The A's are surely worse. the gap has narrowed. With a little less bad luck (the pythagorean record as exhibit A) for us and a little less good luck for them (exhibit B) and I'd say we're the better team.
Adam....I was going to bring up the Pythagorean record earlier today but got lazy. DAMN! I could have beat you to this arguement.
Everyone just needs to chill. We haven't mortgaged the future. We have a solid looking rotation. We have an average looking lineup. We have a great looking pen. I like our chance...God willing and if the creeks don't rise.
Just pointing out recent history
Q:What happens to those who do not learn from History?
A: They are doomed to repeat it.
Yes the Rangers are better and more importantly are positioned to get better beyond just the 07 season. As you astutely pointed out they have not mortaged their future. However they are still weak in the rotation and the line-up is not as powerful as it once was. They needed to get "more better" (That will drive the grammar police nuts) to overtake the A's and Angels.
So
by shallrelicme on Dec 31, 2006 9:51 AM CST up reply actions
Oh yeah Adam
Before last season
We need a new category for you - not lightside, not darkside, but "Brightside"...
A's
They signed Piazza to replace Thomas. While he wasn't as good as Thomas last year, he did have an EqA of .289, while having to catch instead of being able to DH.
Getting more than 100 healthy games from Crosby and Bradley would be a big help as well.
The A's were quite fortunate last year to be so much better than their Pythagorean winning percentage, but, at the same time, I think they have reason to expect to be as good in 2007 as they were in 2006.
by BurntOrange on Dec 31, 2006 12:06 AM CST reply actions
Harden and Bradley
And I don't know that I'm real bullish on Mike Piazza right now.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 31, 2006 12:12 AM CST up reply actions
Piazza
by BurntOrange on Dec 31, 2006 12:30 AM CST up reply actions
He found out...
Adam has been secretly working on a sabermetric device for determining how much worse than JD Drew a given player will be in a given season. It's called DEqA (pronounced DOO-ka), the Drew Equivalent Average. Essentially it compares a theoretical JD Drew against a player, comprehensively, and assigns numerical values to everything from projected OPS to marketing value of hair style, and condenses it to one easily digested number. Frank Catallanato has a DEqA of .001, meaning it would take 1000 of him to equal 1 of JD Drew. Paradoxically, JD Drew Himself projects to a 10 DEqA next season, i.e. he will actually be 10 times better than his theoretical self. Interestingly, Mickey Mantle only had a career DEqA of 0.2
Early Riser?
All three teams have significant health questions
Wilkerson, Blalock, Gagne
Guerrero, Colon, Anderson
The health of those guys will likely decide the division.
Great Post
by BReed on Dec 31, 2006 9:09 AM CST reply actions
Where the Rangers faltered in 2006
The A's owe their AL West title largely to their domination of the Mariners against whom they were 17-2. The Rangers, on the other hand, really didn't dominate any team and failed to beat some teams as often as they should have, e.g. they were 3-3 against the Royals and only 11-8 against the M's.
Glad
Reality is that A's are not likely to repeat this #, thereby closing the gap some. I view the rotation as 5 wins better and the Washington effect as +5 as well, meaning the club is in this through the end.
by ncrangerman on Dec 31, 2006 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
What's funny to me is
Heh...
who do the Rangers have
Each of those players has exactly one full healthy major league season, and all of them were in 2004.
The obvious answer
The A's, and Billy Beane, have a history of making moves or not making moves that have their team surging towards the end. The Rangers have a history of wilting in the stretch.
Hopefully Ron Washington and JD can change that trend.

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