Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Jon Jones, Rashad Evans Reignite Rivalry

The Rangers and the A's

I was ruminating about this today, thinking about a small (but vocal) group of fans who see the Rangers as facing an insurmountable task in trying to catch the A's and Angels in 2007, who view the Rangers as a team locked into third place yet again.

Setting aside the Angels for a moment...what, exactly, is it about the A's that makes them a better team right now than the Rangers?

First of all, the A's weren't any better than the Rangers last season.  The Rangers outscored their opponents by 51 runs last season, while the A's outscored their opponents by 44 runs.  The Rangers' Pythagorean winning percentage -- generally more accurate than actual winning percentage in predicting future performance -- was better than the A's' last season.  

On top of that, the A's lost their best hitter and best starting pitcher from last season.

I'm not writing the A's off, by any means...but at the same time, I have a hard time seeing why Oakland should be considered a playoff contender in 2007 if the Rangers are not a playoff contender.

Comment 44 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

The A's
The most worrisome thing about them is their ability to win against us so easily. The Rangers seem to push their selves so hard to beat the A's that they do not let their superior talent take over.

I feel that the A's manage their games well and do the best with what they have.

I am interested, does anyone else get a sense of hopelessness when we play the A's?

The Angels, just like every club, have major ifs. We know the feeling all to well of prospects not panning out and it can be overly demoralizing. The Angels lack of success recently with their abundance of minor league talent will eventually wear them down.

Their lineup is much like ours, one truly great slugger along with a surrounding cast of good hitters. Their starting staff is where they take the cake.

1.Lackey vs. Millwood Advantage Rangers
2. Colon vs. Padilla Advantage Rangers because of injury and pure fatness concerns
3 Santana vs McCarthy Advantage Angels
4. Weaver vs. Tejeda Advantage Angels
5 Escobar vs. Rupe  Advantage Angels

by Allen13 on Dec 30, 2006 10:01 PM CST reply actions  

Giving us
an advantage in two of five spots is a little generous.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 30, 2006 10:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Colon
Given his health, I might think of him as the 5th starter.  I don't see him being nearly as important to their rotation this year as the other four.  They have a heck of a rotation, and are far more worrisome than the A's this year.

by t ball on Dec 31, 2006 6:02 AM CST up reply actions  

Yep
And if Colon is out they plug Joe Saunders in the fifth spot and probably don't miss a beat. Very solid rotation.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2007 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

MLB.com previews
The team preview of the Angels gave me a chuckle (gallows humor) regarding their rotation.  Of course, every team preview lists a likely starting five, but for the Angels they went ahead and listed 6 slots for the rotation.  Not 5 slots with two candidates for the 5th spot (like they did for the Rangers), but 6 actual slots.  Appropriate I suppose.  Oh, for that kind of depth.

by t ball on Jan 1, 2007 10:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Washington gives me hope..
not despair. So, yes, I was "hope-less" when we played the A's last year...but we didn't have Washington.
When all else fails, there's always delusion. - Conan O'Brien

by mtex on Dec 31, 2006 8:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Not the Angels, maybe the A's
I can see the argument their with the A's, but the Angels are definetly better.  Lackey is their best pitcher and probably the best pitcher in the AL West (if Harden is hurt).  I really don't think there's a single pitcher we have that wins the matchup with their counterpart on the Angels.  And is our hitting really that much better than the Angels?  I would say that it's deeper, which is good, but I'm not sure how much of a difference it makes.  Especially when they hold 4 or 5 pitching edges and have a bullpen that is proven and very good.

Now the A's are another story.  I think that it all depends on the health of players who have not been healthy for them.  They are just such a different team with Harden at the top of the rotation and Chavez, Crosby, and Swisher living up to reasonable expectations.  However, it seems a good bet that at least one of those guys will get hurt or disappoint.  Again, the Ranger's lineup is deeper than the A's (it is unquestionably butter), but pitching wins.  You have to give them the bullpen edge.  Their guys have done it while we have a lot of rookies.  So it comes down to the starting rotation.

Harden beats Millwood  
Loiaza beats Padilla
Haren and McCarthy are similar
Blanton beats Tejeda
Sarloos and Rupe are about equal

BUT

Loiaza loses to Millwood
Haren loses to Padilla
Blanton and McCarthy are similar
Sarloos loses to Tejeda
Kennedy? and Rupe are similar

At least, that's how I read it.  I still think the Angels are the team to beat, but I don't think it's unreasonable to put the Ranger's on par with the A's.

by GhettoBear04 on Dec 30, 2006 10:14 PM CST reply actions  

Bullpen
If Gagne's healthy, I'll take the Rangers pen over both Anaheim and Oakland.  And if he's hurt, I'd put our pen on par with the A's.  They have Street and Duch... Who else is that much of an advantage?  A lot of the value in a bullpen is depth, and the Rangers have a lot of talented pitchers that are somewhat interchangeable.  That goes a long way towards weathering the inevitable injuries and poor performances that come with what may be the most unpredictable part of any team.

by AZranger on Dec 30, 2006 10:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Both the A's and Rangers
have plus pens and are deep.  Both had 7 guys with ERA's under 4.00.  Granted Gagne could be a big difference maker but so would getting 900 to 1000 IP out of the rotation.
Harden was injured last year so there is a question mark on him but he has demonstrated he can pitch when healthy.  

by Bigfan16 on Dec 30, 2006 10:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I think your wrong
on Loiaza beating Padilla Loiaza had a 4.89 Era last season it should be

Padilla beats Loiaza

by myoungfan11 on Dec 30, 2006 11:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Dan Haren
You are under-rating him in both scenarios.

He's better than McCarthy and certainly at least equal to Padilla.

by BurntOrange on Dec 31, 2006 12:00 AM CST up reply actions  

I love the McCarthy trade (as all know)
but, if he's equal to Haren, then JD IS a genius. Haren may end up being the best starter in the AL West.

by tklawless on Dec 31, 2006 8:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Not sure
If Millwood puts together another season like he had in 2005, 2003, or 2002, an argument could certainly be made for him.  I think we forget how good that guy can be.
http://web.archive.org/web/20030210121425/http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=tex

by Dustin on Dec 31, 2006 10:36 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm going sharky this...
...and reply to my own post.

And before anybody brings up Haren's and Harden's ages, I'd like to remind them that Millwood, at age 24, set career bests in ERA , innings, strikeouts, and WHIP.  They may regress, too, if you want to call it that.

http://web.archive.org/web/20030210121425/http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=tex

by Dustin on Dec 31, 2006 10:40 AM CST up reply actions  

That's fair
Just think Haren's getting better.  At 26, he has two full seasons:

217-212-53-163
223-224-45-176

Wouldn't surprise me to see the BB/K ratio continue to improve.

by AZranger on Dec 31, 2006 10:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Not to be argumentative
...but it wouldn't surprise me if he got hurt, either.  See Millwood and his 200+ IP season at age 24, and look what happened after that.  He seems to have recovered, thankfully, but that's alot of innings at a young age.
http://web.archive.org/web/20030210121425/http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=tex

by Dustin on Dec 31, 2006 10:45 AM CST up reply actions  

Age/innings
I tend to agree with that, and with regard to McCarthy this year, it will be interesting to see how he holds up late in the season.  After pitching 172 innings in '04, and 186 in '05, he pitched only 84.2 last year out of the bullpen.

If the Rangers make the playoffs, he would likely be up around 180 or 190 innings and should get some careful handling and extra rest.

by t ball on Dec 31, 2006 10:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Don't disagree
I'd lean more towards the healthy/improve side of the spectrum, and be comfortable he avoids the injury/decline side.  But your point is fair.

by AZranger on Dec 31, 2006 12:04 PM CST up reply actions  

a
When are people going to realize that crosby blows. There are no reasonable expectations for him. He is either going to be hurt or he is going to suck so bad that all a's fans are going to wish he was hurt.

by BillyG on Dec 31, 2006 1:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Looking Back
The 2004 AL ROY was a really weak crop.  I guess if the White Sox had been better maybe you could have given it to Takatsu.  Maybe Rios or Greinke, but jeez, there wasn't much to choose from.

by jtts on Dec 31, 2006 1:56 AM CST up reply actions  

AJM are you calling me vocal?

As my Dad would say, "If the shoe fits then wear it." I'll defend the A's for a minute as long as I can root for the Rangers.

As for the A's.  Lets start with recent history.  Since 2000 their worse season has been 88 wins.  The Ranger best season was 89 wins.  The A's averaged 94.8 wins in the past 7 seasons.  The Rangers have had one season over .500 and averaged 76.4 games won in the same 7 seasons.

Right now the A's have a better rotation top to bottom.  Haren, Harden, Blanton, Loaizza and Saarloos all can pitch and keep their ERA under 5.00.  Assuming the Rangers go with Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Tejeda and Rupe then it is a good bet that 1 or 2 of those guys have an ERA above 5.00.  Granted our rotation is getting better but lets not discount the A's young staff.

Their pen is not too shabby either.  The team did have a 4.21 ERA last year as compared to the Rangers' 4.61.  I'll let you do the math on the park effect.

The A's also comitted 14 fewer errors last year than the Rangers.  It's a marginal difference but one that makes a difference.  One defensive edge the Rangers had was on double plays.

Given the fact that they won 13 more games last year, have a more solid rotation IMO, and generally play a little better defense, I would say they are a team to beat until we beat them.

Let's not forget the Angels who won 9 more games last year and suffered some significant injuries along the way.  

Bottom line is the Rangers will have to prove they can win.  I will agree the line-up is as good as last year, the defense may be better, the pen is looking great and the rotation is about the same as we entered ST last year. (For all the screaming at the last comment, Eaton was healthy going into ST.)  I will also concur that our rotation has more potential than in many, many, many years.  I will not agree that we are a favorite over either the A's or Angels at this point.  But that is why they play the games.

by Bigfan16 on Dec 30, 2006 10:17 PM CST reply actions  

I fail.....
to see what the 2000-2003 A's and the 2000-2003 Rangers have to do with this season.  This Ranger team is COMPLETELY different than those four years.  So are the A's for that matter.

I'd say it's a stretch to even look at the 2004-2005 seasons.  

That said clearly the A's were better last year.  The Rangers are maybe slightly better going into next season on paper.  The A's are surely worse.  the gap has narrowed.  With a little less bad luck (the pythagorean record as exhibit A) for us and a little less good luck for them (exhibit B) and I'd say we're the better team.  

Adam....I was going to bring up the Pythagorean record earlier today but got lazy.  DAMN!  I could have beat you to this arguement.

Everyone just needs to chill.  We haven't mortgaged the future.  We have a solid looking rotation.  We have an average looking lineup.  We have a great looking pen.  I like our chance...God willing and if the creeks don't rise.

by bdavison94 on Dec 30, 2006 10:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Just pointing out recent history
I had a History prof who would always ahve an extra credit question which was good cause his exams were tough.  

Q:What happens to those who do not learn from History?
A:  They are doomed to repeat it.

Yes the Rangers are better and more importantly are positioned to get better beyond just the 07 season.  As you astutely pointed out they have not mortaged their future.  However they are still weak in the rotation and the line-up is not as powerful as it once was.  They needed to get "more better"  (That will drive the grammar police nuts) to overtake the A's and Angels.

by Bigfan16 on Dec 31, 2006 2:16 AM CST up reply actions  

So
we have determined that we can't buy a WS championship. It has been said before and occasionally needs to be reinforced, we need to develop good cheap options for the ML roster from the farm system and bring in free agents at positions of weakness. If we are to become good enough to be champions it will not be because we outbid everyone on the best players on the market but because our internal options elevated the team to championship caliber and our budget was flexible enough to fill all the holes in the off-season because we did not strap ourselves with bad contracts. The organization has been a perennial failure and the blame lies all around the organization but for the first time in as long as I can remember I feel confident about the manager and the GM. We are better positioned better in 07, at this point I can't ask for much more than that.

by shallrelicme on Dec 31, 2006 9:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh yeah Adam
Another great post.  I forgot to add that.

by Bigfan16 on Dec 30, 2006 10:22 PM CST reply actions  

Before last season
you said the same thing about the Angels and they proved to be a better team.  I'm not buying it at all.  The Rangers will have inconsistent pitching and overrated hitting (like they always do).  

We need a new category for you - not lightside, not darkside, but "Brightside"...

by zackaryl on Dec 30, 2006 11:47 PM CST reply actions  

A's
Harden returning healthy would make up for the loss of Zito.

They signed Piazza to replace Thomas.  While he wasn't as good as Thomas last year, he did have an EqA of .289, while having to catch instead of being able to DH.

Getting more than 100 healthy games from Crosby and Bradley would be a big help as well.

The A's were quite fortunate last year to be so much better than their Pythagorean winning percentage, but, at the same time, I think they have reason to expect to be as good in 2007 as they were in 2006.

by BurntOrange on Dec 31, 2006 12:06 AM CST reply actions  

Harden and Bradley
Given their injury history, the chances of both of them coming back and giving the A's a full season doesn't seem to be real great.

And I don't know that I'm real bullish on Mike Piazza right now.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 31, 2006 12:12 AM CST up reply actions  

He found out...
that Piazza wasn't actually drinking a secret cocktail made from Barry Bonds' sweat, Manny Ramirez's jerry curl activator, and JD Drew's man-juice which would make him as powerful as 10 mortal men (or 0.1 JD Drew).  

Adam has been secretly working on a sabermetric device for determining how much worse than JD Drew a given player will be in a given season.  It's called DEqA (pronounced DOO-ka), the Drew Equivalent Average.  Essentially it compares a theoretical JD Drew against a player, comprehensively, and assigns numerical values to everything from projected OPS to marketing value of hair style, and condenses it to one easily digested number.  Frank Catallanato has a DEqA of .001, meaning it would take 1000 of him to equal 1 of JD Drew.  Paradoxically, JD Drew Himself projects to a 10 DEqA next season, i.e. he will actually be 10 times better than his theoretical self.  Interestingly, Mickey Mantle only had a career DEqA of 0.2

by benmor78 on Dec 31, 2006 5:34 AM CST up reply actions  

Early Riser?
That must be where all this Zen-like thinking comes from....keep it up, Ben....you keep me in stitches....and I'm sure Adam REALLY appreciates it!

by tklawless on Dec 31, 2006 8:13 AM CST up reply actions  

All three teams have significant health questions
Crosby, Kotsay (back), Bradley, Harden

Wilkerson, Blalock, Gagne

Guerrero, Colon, Anderson

The health of those guys will likely decide the division.

by AZranger on Dec 31, 2006 10:12 AM CST up reply actions  

Angels
The group I would worry about being healthy for a whole year.

by Allen13 on Dec 31, 2006 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Great Post
I might be in the minority here, but I think the moves by JD this offseason puts the Rangers over the top. The pen was already good and now a healthy Gagne will make it dominant. The starters only have to go 6 innings with this pen. The offense does need another bat to come through which Botts is more than capable of doing. There isn't a team in our division that scares me at all. We match up a lot better than some think. Washington will be a difference maker in the fact that the Rangers won't be pressing next season like they did when Buck was calling the shots. A looser, more talented Rangers squad is more than capable of winning this thing. Is it April yet?
"My theory of hitting was just to watch the ball as it came in and hit it." --Tommy Lasorda

by BReed on Dec 31, 2006 9:09 AM CST reply actions  

Where the Rangers faltered in 2006
It wasn't against the A's; the Rangers were 10-9 against Oakland. Where the wheels came off was in interleague play where they were 7-11 and against the Yankees where they 2-8.   Reverse those records and you add 10 wins for the Rangers.

The A's owe their AL West title largely to their domination of the Mariners against whom they were 17-2.  The Rangers, on the other hand, really didn't dominate any team and failed to beat some teams as often as they should have, e.g. they were 3-3 against the Royals and only 11-8 against the M's.    

by doolindalton on Dec 31, 2006 10:13 AM CST reply actions  

Glad
I read through the entire thread, because this is exactly what I was going to post.  

Reality is that A's are not likely to repeat this #, thereby closing the gap some.  I view the rotation as 5 wins better and the Washington effect as +5 as well, meaning the club is in this through the end.

by ncrangerman on Dec 31, 2006 12:31 PM CST up reply actions  

What's funny to me is
Alot of people here are dismissing any possibility of our rivals' players who have had injury problems in the past remaining healthy, while simultaneously assuming our guys will all be injury-free.

Heh...

Penalty Box? DONT THINK SO!!!!!!! And i wish everyone could stop writing that crap cause its gay...SUPER GAY!!!! NYTXfan!!!

by Brian Thomas on Jan 1, 2007 2:37 PM CST reply actions  

who do the Rangers have
that has the kind of injury history Milton Bradley, Bobby Crosby, and Rich Harden have?

Each of those players has exactly one full healthy major league season, and all of them were in 2004.

by jtts on Jan 1, 2007 10:09 PM CST up reply actions  

The obvious answer
Setting aside the Angels for a moment...what, exactly, is it about the A's that makes them a better team right now than the Rangers?

The A's, and Billy Beane, have a history of making moves or not making moves that have their team surging towards the end.  The Rangers have a history of wilting in the stretch.

Hopefully Ron Washington and JD can change that trend.

3002 Americans dead in Iraq. More Americans have died due to George Bush's stupidity than died on 9/11.

by DJCahill on Jan 2, 2007 8:21 AM CST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Texas Rangers.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

180px-angry_dome_small
Tailgate IV Update
Matchstick_small
NBA Thread: 2/13/2012
Ijnq0k_small
The Hunt for Mike E

Recent FanPosts

Neftali_old_timey_small
12/17/2012 OT 2
1280x800_1047_small
LoneStarBall Fitness Geeks Unite!
Macho_man_randy_savage_small
2/17 OT
110307_1802_00__small
Hall Of Fame Catcher Gary Carter dies
Fishing_small
OT II
Texas-rangers_small
2/16/12 Morning OT
Small
OT: Vegas Baby - 30th Birthday
Fishing_small
OT III
129806053_57baf34b4c_small
LSB DFW Dynasty Keeper League

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Manager

Th_buckykatt_small Adam J. Morris

Editor

477845_small ghostofErikThompson

Author

Matchstick_small matchst1ck