AL West Projections

by SethSpeaks on Feb 4, 2006 8:34 PM CST Comment 15 comments

If you're looking for one more look at what players may or may not do in 2006 (for fantasy purposes, or just to see who is where), be sure to check out my 2006 Projections for the AL West. (I have some very positive outlooks for several Angels hitters) It was Part 1 of my Fantasy Perspectives. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

You can find it by going to http://www.sethspeaks.net/012506.htm.

Thanks,

You can find it by going to http://www.sethspeaks.net/012506.htm.

Thanks,

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Kinsler

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Kinsler 151 597 73 163 29 2 19 253 76 45 92 14 5 .273 .324 .424 .748

Thats high honors for someone that hasnt played in the majors yet, I hope your right...

My style is to keep folks in place who are good managers and want to win.-Tom Hicks

by miles on Feb 4, 2006 10:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Kinsler

If he gets 600 AB's, I don't think those projections are out of line.

I like this quote about Kinsler at the end, too:

"I don't foresee him putting up Soriano numbers in 2006, but then again, I don't see Soriano putting up Kinsler's numbers in 2006!"

I really and truly agree with that.

Somebody's got to win the West in '06. Why not Texas???

by thedirkatron on Feb 5, 2006 2:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No sh#t !.......

Let's hope those projections come true !!!

I figure he'll have the normal rookie struggles and hit more like .250-.260

by tklawless on Feb 4, 2006 11:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Kinsler

I'm thinking somewhere around .245 or .250 with an OBP of around .300. Lots of strikeouts. I don't think his power will impress, either. 12 to 15 home runs and some 20 to 25 doubles, which isn't bad.

For a rookie hitting 9th, you could do a lot worse. I look for him to improve as the years go by, but thinking he'll hit like those projections is a little unrealistic, I think. Expect him to hit like a bottom of the order guy.

It's hard to predict what Soriano will do. The guy still hits the ball hard when he hits it, and might drive a lot of balls into those huge gaps at RFK. His HR numbers will suffer and I don't see why his OBP would change much either way. It wouldn't surprise me to see Soriano and Kinsler post very similar numbers in the end, only with Soriano having a few more homers and a lot more doubles. Then again, he may never see any strikes and just totally fall apart.

by Dustin on Feb 5, 2006 2:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I still think

that Kinsler wont even do that his rookie year, 12-15 hr is kind of high.

My style is to keep folks in place who are good managers and want to win.-Tom Hicks

by miles on Feb 5, 2006 3:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he can

Just about anybody with a pulse can hit at least a few out of the Ballpark. Kinsler has a little power and probably a full-time job, so 12 to 15 isn't unreasonable. It goes without saying that probably 75 percent of them would come at home.

by Dustin on Feb 6, 2006 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW...

BP's PECOTA system puts Kinsler at .270/.328/.451 for 2006, with 27 doubles and 17 homers in 504 plate appearances, good for a .261 EQA.

I think that's a not unreasonable expectation for Kinsler. And if he puts up that line, he'll be a better player in 2006 than Soriano will be.

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 5, 2006 4:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

let's not forget which ballpark Kinsler gets to play in! That is a huge factor.

by SethSpeaks on Feb 5, 2006 7:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA

I don't know what that is, but I have a hard time believing he'll be able perform that well. A rookie is still a rookie no matter how his home ballpark plays.

by Dustin on Feb 6, 2006 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Kinsler

Does that mean that all rookies automatically suck? Why bother with a Rookie of the Year award then? Is that just for the guy who sucked the least? I think the PECOTA and Preview projections are a bit on the optimistic side but to just randomly make claims with no support save "a rookie is still a rookie" seems a bit ridiculous.

by FirebatM3 on Feb 6, 2006 8:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

pretty funny comment

Most rookies struggle, and that's a fact, not a random comment.

I never said Kinsler would suck. What I predicted of him would be a pretty decent season for a rookie. As far as his OBP goes, I just don't think he'll walk as much in the majors as he did in AAA. Guess I'm crazy or something.

I'm glad you're high on him, but he's not the caliber of prospect that usually comes in and sets the league on fire right away. I hope he does, but he probably won't.

by Dustin on Feb 7, 2006 8:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

I am curious as to why everyone thinks Kinsler's OBP will only be a few points above his BA. He took 53 walks (14 less than Botts, who is praised for his ability to draw walks) in Oklaholma in 530 ABs, and his stance gets him a few HBPs. I think a Khalil Greene Rookie Year line of .273/.350/.430 is certainly possible given homeparks.

by FirebatM3 on Feb 6, 2006 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Without any recalculation

It looks like Seth's projections are based on aggregate performance, trended by shifts in the differential between BA and OBP. Don't seem out of line, but yeah, you'd take those estimates to the bank right now. Scanning, that overall projection should produce a lot of runs, contingent on the OBP's in it.

by Ed Coffin on Feb 4, 2006 11:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

We need to change Eds name.....

to the Professor... and Im not talking the Craig Miller esque Professor.

by JJStuart on Feb 4, 2006 11:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Nah .. plenty here know I'm a rationalizer and analyzer, not a calculator. Lots of true sabermetricians around, I depend on them for trends, projections, and most comparisons.

But if you mean I articulate stuff that wasn't clearly said in somebody's hypothesis ... yep, guilty!

by Ed Coffin on Feb 4, 2006 11:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs