FanPost

Win Expectancy for 4/23 vs Tampa Bay

Going to do it a little different today, plan to do it more play by play, but moreso big play by big play.

Todays Chart:

Todays Leader Board
MVP of the Game: Mark Teixeira .160
Dog of Game: Casey Fossum -.399

John Koronka at .100
Joaquin Benoit at .013

Casey Fossum at -.399
Doug Waechter at .019
Shawn Camp at .006
Dan Miceli at .003

Top 5 for Tampa Bay
Cantu .069
Hollins .060
Waechter .019
Camp .006
Gomes .005

Miceli only other positive DRay

Bottom 5 for Tampa Bay
Fossum -.399
Wigginton -.080
Perez -.060
Branyan -.053
Hall -.031
Top 5 for Texas
Teixeira .160
Blalock .101
Mench .100
Koronka .100
Nevin .074

Bottom 5 for Texas
Young -.077
Hyzdu -.036
Jimenez -.019
Benoit .013
Laird .022

Young, Hyzdu, Jimenez only Rangers in the negative.

Pitcher Contribution: 11.3%
Batter Contrbution: 38.7%

[1:07] Koronka starts off strong striking out Crawford for .024.  

[1:11] Gomes singles but since it's 2 outs it's only worth .011.  

[1:14] Koronka strikes out Wigginton to get out of the first unscatched. Not all that meaningful now but Rangers at 55.3% to win.

[1:21] Casey Fossum mows down the Rangers in the bottom half of the inning and both pitchers sit at .056 for the day and at 50% to win.

[1:23] Damon Hollins goes deep to lead off the second for .087 credit. Devil Rays at 58.7% to win now.

[1:27] Koronka comes back after the homer and retires the next 3 pretty quickly. Despite the homer, Koronka still sitting at .019 on the game, the only Ranger in the positives.

[1:31] Blalock answers the call and returns the HR by knocking one out for .092 credit to tie the game up.

[1:36] Through 2 innings now and both teams at 50% to win, and both teams have 3 players in the positive on WPA (Blalock, Mench, Koronka Rangers; Hollins, Fossum, Gomes for DRays)

[1:42] Jorge Cantu smashes an RBI double to the right field alley scoring the go ahead run. Worth .104 due to getting in scoring position while knocking in a run.

[1:44] Koronka comes back after giving up a run and strikes out Gomes for .032 and getting Wigginton to ground out for another .032. Devil Rays at 53.7% to win. Koronka falls into the negatives for the game at -.018

[1:47] Gasp, a Ranger bunt hit! Laird gets the job done for .030 credit by getting on base as the lead man. Matthews follows it up with a double to the alley that doesn't score Laird. Matthews double worth .102

[1:53] Young drops by .052 for popping out with 2 men on, no one out. Mark Teixeira cleans it up for Young though knocking out a 3 run homer. Rangers up 4-2 now. Teixeira's homer worth .172 and Rangers now 71.6% to win. Nevin follows up going back to back worth .072 and Rangers now at 78.9%.

[1:57] Mench hits the 3rd homer in 4 batters knocking a 2 run jack for .090. Rangers now at 89.2% to win.

[2:00] Fossum finally gets out of the game, but is the dog of the game at the moment with a -.383.

[2:04] Koronka comes out strong yet again and pushes Rangers win chances above 90% for the first time today with the K of Hollins, up to 90.1%

[2:12] After the first two batters go down quick, Tex singles and then Nevin hits an RBI double worth .032. Rangers up to 94.1% to win

[2:18] Koronka mows them down in short order to get through 5 innings, .044 score for the game. Rangers at 96% to win now so there's not many points for the Rangers left to earn this game unless the DRays were to get some runs on the board.

[2:26] Laird smacks a double to the left field corner to make men on 2nd & 3rd, 2 outs. Of course with the game in hand pretty well, it's only worth .004.

[2:33] Jonny Gomes smashes a homer into the visitors bullpen for a grand total credit of .022, Rangers still 94.2% to win.

[2:36] Koronka comes back and gets the next two hitters. Definitely showing some resolve in this game. Koronka still only 6th on the Rangers today in WPA at .050.

[2:56] 7th inning is over and Rangers sit at 96.8% to win it. Jimenez, Hyzdu, and Young are only 3 Rangers in the negative and hopefully none of them have the shot to pull it above positive. Young still needs a hit to extend the hit streak.

[3:03] Looks like John Koronka will probably be done as he's right at about 100 pitches through 8 innings. Only 3 runs, but finishes with a WPA of .100 due to that offensive outburst in the 3rd zapping most of the WPA possibilities from him.

[3:11] Going to Top 9th with a 8-3 lead, Rangers with a 98.7% expectancy to win it and Benoit relieves Koronka.

[3:13] Benoit strikes out Wigginton to start off the 9th, that K drives the win expectancy up to 99.7%

[3:15] Hollins K drives win expectancy up to 99.9%. Nearly all she wrote.

[3:16] Benoit strikes out Branyan to close out the game. Rangers win 8-3.

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