FanPost

Win Expectancy for 4/25 vs Oakland

Didn't do it last night due to going to the Stars game, and that I can tell you sucked, but oh well, back to the grind today of watching baseball.

Just got in and got caught up on the top of the first.

[7:10ish] Rangers finish top first with 55.3% to win.  Nothing too exciting about that this early.

[7:14] Matthews draws a lead off walk worth .024, then gets thrown out at second stealing worth -.048

[7:19] Nevin smacks a double off the wall putting men 2nd & 3rd worth .026. Blalock with a shot to get some in.

[7:23] Zito plunks Mench with bases loaded. That play was worth .077 for netting a run. Rangers at 64.3% to win now.

[7:25] Wilkerson strikes out to end the inning bases loaded and is worth -.060. After 1 inning, Rangers at 58.3% to win it.

[7:33] Padilla makes it through the top 2nd only allowing the lone walk which ends up not affecting much. Rangers at 64.1% to win and Padilla already up to a .111 WPA on the day.

[Bot 3rd] I'll do this all in one entry since I had to run out for cooking supplies (Eggs and Milk) to make dinner. Anyways, Young getting thrown out stealing was worth -.038. However, then the 2 out rally happened. Blalock hit a 2 run homer worth .155. Then Mench followed it with a solo homer worth .061 before Wilkerson finally ended the inning. Rangers at 83.3% to win game.

[8:10] Thomas draws a lead off walk worth .020. Bradley draws antoher walk worth .043.

[8:21] Phone call disrupted updates, nothing more of note happened top of 4th as Padilla got out of it unscatched. As for bottom of the 4th, 4 up, 3 down. Rangers at 85.6% to win the game after 4 innings. [8:23] After four innings, Padilla is the MVP of the game with a WPA of .220 over 4 innings. Meanwhile Zito is the dog of the game at -.179. Blalock and Mench also above .100 and Nevin only other above 0 on the Rangers.

[8:28] Payton hits a double and Kotsay follows up hitting an RBI double. Kotsay gets .074 on the play.

[8:29] Swisher smacks it back up the middle and Padilla runs down the running going to 3rd. Worth .052

[8:35] Nevin goes yard with a moonshot of a homer to LF. Worth .054 and puts the Rangers at 89.4% to win the game.

[8:48] Jason Kendall hits an RBI single. Worth .057 to bring the A's back to within 5-2.

[8:52] Jay Payton hits a hard grounder at Jimenez who lets it go into RF to make it 5-3. Worth .080. Padilla gets yanked with the win expectancy falling to 76% for the Rangers.

[8:57] Benoit gets out of inning and is worth .057.

[9:13] Alfonseca gets out of the 7th and Rangers at 86.2% to win the game after 6 1/2 innings.

[9:27] Got a meeting to head to at 9:30 but after 7 innings, Rangers at 82.7% to win it with Otsuka coming in.

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