Barry Zito

by booyahcaveman on Aug 7, 2006 8:53 PM CDT Comment 48 comments

The more I look at it the more I realize that Barry Zito should be this team's TOP offseason priority. Just look at his numbers.

He has pretty good strikeout numbers. He will give you at least 200 innings a year. Prior to this year his ERA was a full run less than the league average. His WHIP is ninth best among active pitchers. He is still pretty young and perhaps is just entering his true prime. Just close your eyes and think of what signing Zito would mean.

Assuming they re-sign, lets say, Eaton and Wells.
Rotation:
Millwood, Zito, Eaton, Wells, and most likely Volquez

PLUS this move would take away a top pitcher from the A's. I would sign Zito for up to 5 years and up to 15.5 mil per yr if that is what it takes.

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x

Give him five years, 75 million. We would have two aces, that would be sweet.

Not all is Wells...

by miles on Aug 7, 2006 8:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Who is the other one?

by Chris Martin on Aug 8, 2006 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Karonka.

by Athos on Aug 8, 2006 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Millwood

in a sense...

Not all is Wells...

by miles on Aug 8, 2006 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What sense?

The amount of money he makes?

by Chris Martin on Aug 8, 2006 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

Hes a work horse, he has two less innings pitched than Randy Johnson. Hes a leader to our young pitchers, he helps them out. And he is a very good pitcher, if only he could pitch well at home...

Not all is Wells...

by miles on Aug 8, 2006 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's his road numbers?

by Longhorn on Aug 8, 2006 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They are very good

Overall he is a pretty decent pitcher. He is not however an "ace" or worth the money he is being paid.

by Chris Martin on Aug 8, 2006 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

His most valuable asset

has been his durability. I'd love to see the Rangers sign him.

by mdickson on Aug 7, 2006 8:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

agree

on the durability. It's so much easier to give a pitcher lots of money when you're 95% sure he'll pitch the whole season and the whole contract for you.

by Brett Perryman on Aug 7, 2006 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ziti

I never looked at him and thought he was an ace, but he's definitely a very good pitcher and one I'd like to see play for Texas. That rotation you posted doesn't excite me much, though. Only the top two are good...the Rangers have that this year and look how far it's gotten them.

by Dustin on Aug 7, 2006 8:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

we had a topic on this not long ago

http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2006/7/10/201136/543

This is what I said then:

"His WHIP and flyball tendency indicates that he wouldn't be a great fit in Texas. Frankly, I think he's benefited from that spacious foul territory more than anyone in the stadium's history.

I wouldn't be on board with giving him Millwood money. Of course, I wasn't incredibly thrilled about giving Millwood Millwood money, either.

I have always(and I do mean always) said that the Rangers should focus their money on hitting(Carlos Delgado would have been nice), and build their pitching staff from within. The free agent market is so awful for pitchers right now, and has been for several years. It's simply not cost-efficient to spend ace-money on guys who aren't really aces, like Millwood and Zito."

and this:

"Zito does have one thing going for him that I like a lot: he's been very durable. He's on pace to throw 200+ innings for the sixth straight season(and he'll have come close to or exceeded 230 innings four times). Which is why I think he's, as you say, a solid #2/3, and thus deserving of solid #2/3 money."

by Ian Cobb on Aug 7, 2006 9:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Furthermore, 5 years, 15.5 mil per year

is the kind of money you give to Johan Santana, or Roy Halladay. Pitchers who are young, but more importantly, among the four or five best pitchers in baseball every year. Hall of Fame type pitchers.

Giving Barry Zito that kind of money is insane.

by Ian Cobb on Aug 7, 2006 9:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

But if

you want a guy like that, you have to give them that kind of money. Someone will pay it, costs have gone up.

Not all is Wells...

by miles on Aug 7, 2006 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no you don't

there haven't been more than a couple of pitchers who have ever gotten $15 mil/year contracts.

by Ian Cobb on Aug 8, 2006 1:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we

want someone that quality to come to Texas, we are going to have to pay that.

What we could do....

Brad Radke- 1 year 4 million
Gil Meche- 2 years 12 million
Craig Wilson- 2 years 12 million

We could get all that for the same price, and that would be a great offseason... But I would love to have a dominationg guy like Zito in there to have two aces in our rotation

Not all is Wells...

by miles on Aug 8, 2006 1:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Radke

That would work except Radke plans on retiring after this season. At least those are the reports I have heard.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 1:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

I would agree with you, but Zito hasn't been an "ace" since '02, and given his walk rates and flyball tendencies, it seems unlikely that he would dominate here in Texas.

Brad Radke isn't a dominator or an ace either, but he was better than Zito over the two year span of '04-'05.

As I said before, and will continue to say in the future, the Rangers best course of action is to continue to try to develop cheap pitching from within, and use their free agent dollars on the much more moderately priced positional areas.

by Ian Cobb on Aug 8, 2006 2:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dominating ?.........

except for the fact his KO's are going down and his BB's are going up.......2 very "telling" stats for a pitcher......5/$75M is too much and he's likely to get at least that.

by tklawless on Aug 8, 2006 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

Actually the "telling" stats you refer to are used to try and predict how propects will do in the major leagues. These are not very "telling" when you have a pitcher that is well established in the major leagues. Refer to any John Sickels book for more on this.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Contradiction

There are actually several right now who have the type of contracts that Zito desires. A millwood type contract, plus you said you should only give those type of contracts to pitchers like Halladay and Santana. Well, look at Zito's numbers compared to Halladay's. If anything Zito has the advantage.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 1:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

according to ESPN's salary listings

the only pitchers who are going to earn $15 million or more this season are Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and (yes, indeed)Chan Ho Park.

by Ian Cobb on Aug 8, 2006 3:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forget a few

Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettite. Also Pedro Martinez and Bartolo Colon and Mike Hampton also. I know that these three will be making 15+ mil next year. Halladay will be making 14.25 mil in 2009 and 15.75 mil in 2010. Maddux received his last deal and made around 15 mil a yr. As did Curt Schilling. Also remember the Kevin Brown deal? So if you are counting, and I know you are, that is 9 at least that I know. You also have to think that Zambrano and Oswalt will get similar deals when they are up after 2007. That puts the number at 11. You also have Chris Carpenter who also may get a similar deal.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re-examine please

With that post I assume you are saying that Roy Halladay is a HOF type of pitcher. I just wanted to compare his numbers with Zito's.

Halladay: 79-43 3.70 ERA 1.256 WHIP
Zito: 86-53 3.50 ERA 1.222 WHIP

This yr

Halladay: 13-3 3.21 ERA 1.13 WHIP
Zito: 12-7 3.50 ERA 1.34 WHIP

Now, here is the kicker though. Halladay is injured more frequently. He is on his way to 200+ innings this year which will only be his 3rd time to do so (with 9 full seasons in the majors and 8 of those being a full time starter). Zito is on pace for his 7th (out of 7 full seasons) straight 200+ inning year. Also Zito is one year younger than Halladay.

As you can see just these numbers dont tell the whole story but why is one considered an ace and one is not? Apparently, if Halladay is worth the money(according to you) so is Zito.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 7, 2006 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

era+

zito career = 129
halladay career= 127

"I'm sick of hearing about the DVD and how they are untouchable." - Dan McDowell

by Agreen07 on Aug 7, 2006 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

That ranks Zito 7th among active pitchers.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 1:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zito v. Halladay

Their career averages are a bit misleading, since Halladay was a late bloomer and Zito peaked early and has regressed since.

Here are their numbers from '02 through today:

Zito-1059 IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Halladay-942.67 IP, 3.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

This, of course, doesn't take into account the fact that Zito plays in a fairly extreme pitchers park(and is an extreme flyball pitcher, while Halladay is a groundball specialist).

Also, the difference between the two would be even more dramatic if you were to make the starting point '03, as '02 was by far Zito's best season, and the kind of year he hasn't come close to reproducing.

I'm not saying Halladay will make the Hall of Fame. My point was simply that $15.5 million a year is the kind of money you give to a pitcher who is undeniably among the leagues best(as I said, someone who is in the top four or five every year). Zito, while a valuable guy to have, simply is not that kind of guy anymore, and clearly is not a good fit in Ameriquest Field.

by Ian Cobb on Aug 8, 2006 2:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can do that too

look at 04' through today. The big number that jumps out at me is the fact that zito has pitched roughly 165 MORE innings than Halladay. My point is that Halladay is always an elite pitcher but he is much more of a risk than a Zito would be. Zito would give you 200+ innings every year. Halladay may or may not. 15 million is well spent on a pitcher who is consistent. Halladay is BUT he is injury prone. Zito is worth up to 15 mil or so a year and he will get it.

Zito's ERA has actually fallen from a career high 4.48 in 2004 to 3.50 this year. Not the sign of a regressing pitcher in my eyes. Also Halladay has an ERA a full run higher in Arlington that Zito.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 2:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

I have watched both in person in Arlington this year. I have to give the full edge to Zito, He might even be one of the best pitchers to pitch in Arlington with that 4.00 ERA here.

Not all is Wells...

by miles on Aug 8, 2006 2:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

"look at 04' through today."

Ok. Halladay is still has the better ERA, WHIP, and HR rate.

As to your comment about the innings pitched difference: If you remember, Halladay's injury in '05 was from Kevin Mench's linedrive to the leg, a freak occurence no more likely to befall Halladay than anyone else. So, since being recalled from the minors in '01, Halladay has had one throwing related injury. Hardly "injury prone".

"Zito's ERA has actually fallen from a career high 4.48 in 2004 to 3.50 this year. Not the sign of a regressing pitcher in my eyes."

I said that Zito has regressed since his career year in '02. If he was still that pitcher, then you could make the argument that he deserved that kind of money, but he's not(not even close).

by Ian Cobb on Aug 8, 2006 2:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately

freak injuries are still injuries. I guess you decided to ignore his success in Arlington (relative to other pitchers of course because I would never say a 4.00 is a total success). Also we are forgetting one crucial point. Zito will be available and Halladay will not be. He will get anywhere from 12-15 mil per year and he will earn it. Just think about him pitching with Texas' offense (nothing special this year but usually very good and much better than the A's). If lets say he is worth Millwood money (12 mil per yr), I would not mind signing him for 2 mil or so per yr than he is worth to finally have two top of the rotation starters. Also the ability to weaken a division foe is easily worth the marginal amount we MAY overpay for him.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 3:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

"I guess you decided to ignore his success in Arlington (relative to other pitchers of course because I would never say a 4.00 is a total success)."

According to ESPN's '03-'05 splits(I'm too lazy to find more), in seven starts at the ballpark, Zito went 5-1, but with a 4.64 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 38/24 K-BB ratio.

That's certainly not awful(actually, it's fairly decent), but it's far from great. Padilla has been better in his 12 home starts this year. Is Padilla worth Millwood money, too?

"Also we are forgetting one crucial point. Zito will be available and Halladay will not be."

I hadn't forgotten that. I only mentioned Halladay offhand as the kind of pitcher worth that money(in contrast to Zito). I never suggested the Rangers had a shot at getting him.

"If lets say he is worth Millwood money (12 mil per yr), I would not mind signing him for 2 mil or so per yr than he is worth to finally have two top of the rotation starters. Also the ability to weaken a division foe is easily worth the marginal amount we MAY overpay for him."

I don't think Zito is worth Millwood money, though. To be honest, I didn't think Millwood was worth Millwood money.

Zito is almost certain to leave Oakland, so they'll be weakened no matter where he goes.

by Ian Cobb on Aug 8, 2006 3:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who knows

Who says that he definitely does leave Oakland. Remember the A's did lock up Chavez. Although I do concede it is highly unlikely that he stays. Halladay has 5.56 ERA at Arlington during the same time and has allowed the same amount of HRs in 20 less innings. These past three years are also supposedly during Zito's regression period too. Millwood is definitely worth his money. You will see his worth tomorrow as he halts the losing streak. Not everyday do you get an ERA title winner, a leader and a durable starter like that. I have a feeling the Rangers will probably add 15-20 mil to the payroll and I would want them to spend it in no other way than to lock up Zito. Of course, this is all probably moot as they will find a way to sign Carlos Lee to 5 yr 250 mil contract haha.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 3:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Thanks for jinxing Millwood.

by Ian Cobb on Aug 8, 2006 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zito's best factor is.....

durablity. But, before we're too quick to throw out $75-$80M, just thought I'd throw out these stats:

Zito (last 4 years)

51-43 avg. ERA of 3.79 KO/9 down from nearly 7 to just above 6

Mystery pitcher (5 years)

75-49 avg ERA of 3.70 KO/9 avg. over 8 for 5 years

Any guesses ?

Chan Ho Park.........free agency........great......usually for the player !

by tklawless on Aug 8, 2006 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Home-Road

You failed to post the home road splits of either pitcher. This is something that everyone, that wasnt involved with the Rangers, was clamoring about. You and everyone else know this sent up a red flad. Looking at Zito's splits they are eerily similar plus his success at the ballpark. Basically no matter where Zito pitches he has success, not the case for Park obviously. Also the market did not dictate that type of deal for Park as the Rangers overpaid by at least 3-5 mil a yr. This market is dictating this type of deal for Zito.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you really believe............

the Ranger's can sign ANY free agent (especially a pitcher) without money whipping them.......you seem to believe if Zito is offered $75M from the Ranger's & Yankee's, he'll come to Arlington.

Can I have a hit of what you're smoking ?

by tklawless on Aug 8, 2006 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cali guy in NY? riiiiiiiiiiight

If you read what I have posted earlier you would have seen that the Rangers will possibly have to overpay i.e. if the Yankees offer 5/60 (what Zito wants) the Rangers will have to offer 5/70. But this overpayment will be justified considering the type of history that Zito has. Do you really think that a laid back guy like Zito will want to go to New York? Texas will probably be as far east as he is ever willing to go. Trust me Zito is not a NY guy.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

NY was just a euphymism for..........

nearly any other team.......just saying the Ranger's will have to overpay simply to get into the running......and as history shows......

"Woodrow, but this is a BAD start" !!!

by tklawless on Aug 8, 2006 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

First of all spell euphemism correctly. It cannot be a euphemism either because the two NY teams are the ones that will probably offer huge contracts other than perhaps the Dodgers. As history shows it is bad to pay 3-5 mil more per yr than any other team is even thinking about offering for a guy that pitches terribly away from his notoriously pitcher friendly park (Zito pitches well wherever). That is history, along the lines of the great Annales School. Sorry you probably didnt get the Annales School reference, wouldnt expect you to.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excuse me, Professer..........

Hope you don't make any mistakes (I'll be watching !)

Hope you get this ASSHOLE reference and BTW, how's that Annales School of thought workin' out for ya ?

By your way of thinking Zito should sign with the Cancun Lobstermen so he could lay on the beach for 4 outta 5 days........who needs money, right ?

by tklawless on Aug 8, 2006 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

tsk tsk

Name calling, didnt your mother teach you that name calling is rather impolite? Read Adam Morris' post about civil disagreements and name calling before posting again. Also if you wanted to know the Annales school is an early 20th century school of history. It is based about individualistic history. The suscribers to the Annales hold that if you believe history will repeat itself, then you are quite short-sighted. There are always different variables that exist. This is also in line with the Augustinian view of history as not being cyclical. Marx, actually, was the one of the first big advocates of history repeating itself.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

professor not professer

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching is more important than hitting.

The idea that we should pursue hitting first is ridiculous. That's like going and getting two really great strikers, but a run of the mill goalkeeper. We've learned a great offense + mediocre pitching gets you nowhere. (It gets you to the playoffs, only to be destroyed by the Yankees.)

We need a new focus...pitching. Even if Zito signs here and goes 5-11 with a 5.50 ERA next year, some NL team will still covet him. We'd have no trouble trading him.

"I felt that I could've written it, so the fact that it already existed is really a technicality." - Walt Berkman

by orton1227 on Aug 7, 2006 10:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

"We need a new focus...pitching. Even if Zito signs here and goes 5-11 with a 5.50 ERA next year, some NL team will still covet him. We'd have no trouble trading him."

Zito would have an awful contract, which would mean we'd trade him to an NL team for another awful contract. Most likely an aging power hitter.

...sound familiar?

by Ian Cobb on Aug 8, 2006 3:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

Zito is not Chan Ho Park and it is comical that you would even attempt to suggest that. Zito does not have the awful home-road splits that Park did and Zito has a longer track record of success. Also, the Rangers offered far more than any other team was offering at that point. Zito also has a career 10-1 record at the ballpark so he has some experience there and it will not get into his head. Zito will not have any years like that for the duration of a 5 year contract that I have suggested. I think he was just trying to suggest that even if Zito falters initially he will still be valuable. It is moot point though because Zito will not falter like that.

by booyahcaveman on Aug 8, 2006 3:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs