Nate Silver on the Rangers offseason

by Adam J. Morris on Oct 18, 2007 1:30 PM CDT in News

Nate Silver previews the coming offseasons for the A.L. West teams, and the news (short-term) for the Rangers isn't really good.

Silver suggests that the Rangers shouldn't really buy or sell...they don't have a good enough team right now to buy, and all the veteran pieces that would be worth selling have already been sold.

The Rangers are currently in a little different situation than in past years. For much of the 21st century, they've had a few very good or great players surrounded by quite a few gaping holes. That's made the short-term view more positive, because you generally figure that if you can fill gaping holes with just mediocre/sub-par players, which should be relatively easy to find, then you can compete.

Now, though, the Rangers don't have that group of high-level players any more. Looking to 2008, I see one Ranger positional player who I think is a good bet to be an above-average player...Ian Kinsler.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia might be an above-average catcher, if he gets his bat going. Michael Young might be an above-average shortstop, if he hits more like he did in 2005 and 2006 and less like he did in 2007. Hank Blalock could be an above-average third baseman, if his offensive improvement this year is real.

The rotation is hard to say...Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Edinson Volquez, and Brandon McCarthy all have the ability to be above average major league starters, but I'd be hard-pressed to say that any of them is much better than a 50/50 bet to be an above-average starting pitcher next year.

Whereas in past years, you could say that the team just needs to get decent production from a few spots that were awful, what this team needs to be competitive is impact players, a couple of true All Star level studs, particularly in the outfield.

Now, the Rangers do have a great bullpen, and that can sometimes carry you a ways...just look at the D-Backs. They made it to the NLCS with the worst average and OBP in the N.L. (despite playing in a hitters park) because they had a great bullpen, one dominant starter, and one solid starter. In fact, the D-Backs' problem with their lineup is similar to the Rangers' problem...what positional player on their team is a solid above-average major league regular?

The lack of a stud is why Silver thinks that the Rangers will end up as strong buyers, paying a premium for a premium free agent. I'd feel better about that, though, if I felt that there was a premium free agent on the market this offseason (other than ARod)...

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Bonds

premium

by ab03 on Oct 18, 2007 1:30 PM CDT reply actions

why do you fel there are no

premium outfielders? Rowand is good enough to be. So is Hunter even though you don't like him. Hunter and Rowand could move to a corner if needed. Yah, I dont want to see the rangers spend 80 mil on Hunter or Rowand but anything less and I'm ok. I'd bet that Kinsler is our best trading chip and if no contract can be made I wouldnt be suprised to see him traded. Do I like that? NO:( But if we could get an all star outfielder or prospect for right or center then I'm okay with trading Kinsler. No I dont like it but Kinsler has a potential replacement in Duran, and at this point sell high on Kinsler to get a premium outfielder.

"I'd need a picture of Jamey with a shotgun saying "This is my Boomstick!" before I could see that one." DJCahill

by NYTXFAN on Oct 18, 2007 1:34 PM CDT reply actions

Okay

Hunter and Rowand could move to a corner if needed.

If you move one of them to a corner, then they are an average, at best, player.

I'd bet that Kinsler is our best trading chip and if no contract can be made I wouldnt be suprised to see him traded. Do I like that? NO:( But if we could get an all star outfielder or prospect for right or center then I'm okay with trading Kinsler. No I dont like it but Kinsler has a potential replacement in Duran, and at this point sell high on Kinsler to get a premium outfielder.

Kinsler isn't eligible for free agency until after 2011, so I doubt whether or not he'd agree to a contract will have much bearing on their decision.
You aren't selling high on Kinsler right now.
I am hard pressed to think of an outfield prospect that it would make sense to trade Kinsler to acquire. Jay Bruce or Cameron Maybin, sure. But that's not going to happen.

by Adam J. Morris on Oct 18, 2007 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Positional EqA

07 Averages:

LF: .269
CF: .263
RF: .272

Hunter 07: .279
Rowand 07: .293

I guess if you assume Hunter/Rowand would match their offensive production from this year, then either would be above average at any of the OF spots.

Some professionals get better with age and experience. Lawyers, professors, engineers. Hookers? Not so much. -- DJ Cahill

by tricer on Oct 18, 2007 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

But,

as I think you're implying, they will very likely not match that production again. Both have a good shot at being above average CF bats for at least a couple years, but not enough to justify the huge contracts they'll get this winter.

My thinking a couple of months ago was that the Rangers should try to plug one major hole this winter, via free agency or trade, then one or two more during 2008 via trade, then see what they need going into 2009.

Now I'm thinking that I'd rather see them take a little bit slower approach and only add players that can help them in the long term as above average contributors. More difficult, slower, but probably the way to go.

Baseball Fever - catch it!

by t ball on Oct 18, 2007 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed with that approach

I was just curious what the average EqA was for the different OF spots and I looked it up and thought it was interesting enough to share.

Wasn't really trying to make a point or anything.

Some professionals get better with age and experience. Lawyers, professors, engineers. Hookers? Not so much. -- DJ Cahill

by tricer on Oct 18, 2007 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions

"Trading Kinsler"

You just invited Sharky to spit all over this thread.

"When you see me smash somebody's skull, you enjoy it." - Mike Tyson

by inactive lsb user on Oct 18, 2007 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Very interesting

by rldwb on Oct 18, 2007 1:42 PM CDT reply actions

Yah,

for more years of kinsler is valuable. But you'd trade him for a maybin. How aren't we selling high on Kinsler? Id take an average corner outfielder then Cruz and Byrd.

"I'd need a picture of Jamey with a shotgun saying "This is my Boomstick!" before I could see that one." DJCahill

by NYTXFAN on Oct 18, 2007 1:49 PM CDT reply actions

Cruz and Byrd

don't cost $15 mil per

by jparks77 on Oct 18, 2007 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions

What makes you think

We're selling high on Ian?

sportsdeals.blogspot.com

by BudLight on Oct 18, 2007 1:56 PM CDT reply actions

2008 AL West

Unlike last winter, it seems like the Angels would be the hands down pick to win the west in 2008 even if they do nothing. The other three teams have major question marks. If the Angels do indeed land one or both of Arod and Bonds, I cannot imagine how far behind the Rangers will finish.

Hmmm, how's that 2009 draft class looking?

Baseball Fever - catch it!

by t ball on Oct 18, 2007 2:51 PM CDT reply actions

Andruw Jones?

We have all heard what Boras says he is worth, but what will he really get?

I would go 6/100 to get him in here (if I were in position to do so). I seriously doubt he gets much more. Jones/Boras would be wise to accept a one year deal, but Boras already said that was not an option.

With the possible exception of ARod, I bet we see a backlash in the FA market, a sort of market correction, after the Zito and Matthews debacles of last winter. We saw something similar after the Hampton and ARod debacles at the turn of the century.

by clark on Oct 18, 2007 2:51 PM CDT reply actions

Id pass on Jones

He had nothing in terms of production and he wond get more than a one year deal this year.

"I'd need a picture of Jamey with a shotgun saying "This is my Boomstick!" before I could see that one." DJCahill

by NYTXFAN on Oct 18, 2007 2:56 PM CDT reply actions

BP prospect chat today

no worthy of a diary, so see below or link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=375

Jeff (NY): How about Kyle blanks for the Prince Fielder path? How come no one pays much attention to german Duran?

Bryan Smith: Blanks is already on the Prince Fielder diet, so I suppose the path would work fine. The problem with your comparison is they don't have similar histories, Blanks was a JC guy that played in the California League -- Fielder was a HS first round pick that dominated the MWL and was pushed to Double-A. Duran doesn't get a lot of attention because he is pretty unanimously agreed to be a future bench option for the Rangers. He has some Mark Derosa upside, but that's about it.

by Brandon Wilson on Oct 18, 2007 3:10 PM CDT reply actions

Ouch

Someone's not a fan of the German. That's unfortunate.

Yeah, well at least I'm housebroken.

by HypoLuxa on Oct 18, 2007 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Mark DeRosa upside?

I think this is just Ranger prospect hating.

What about his game suggests that he is a future bench player? It would seem to me that he has shown the power potential to play a number of positions.

by clark on Oct 18, 2007 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions

interesting....

I guess a future replacment for Kinsler is out of the question. How about Guillermo Quiroz taking free agency after he was outrighted. we now have 39 men on the roster.

"I'd need a picture of Jamey with a shotgun saying "This is my Boomstick!" before I could see that one." DJCahill

by NYTXFAN on Oct 18, 2007 3:15 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah, I wonder if Quiroz's decision

was a surprise to JD. There has been a little discussion about who needs to be on the 40 before rule 5 and how many slots are available for FAs.

Everyone has said it, so I'll say it again, it's a weak catcher's market. I would guess Quiroz has a pretty good chance of landing with someone. I doubt it was a surprise that Quiroz left the org. for FA.

Gotta figure Sosa, Wilkerson, Hairston, Wright, and Vazquez are likely coming off the 40 (well, they may keep Vazquez). That brings it down to 34, and it leaves room to hold off on decisions on the fringe 40 guys, fast Freddy, Rupe, and Bill White, if JD feels they need to hang on to them.

Don't know who I would advocate to fill the 40-man voids.

People rarely live up to their baby pictures.

by rooster on Oct 18, 2007 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Boggs

needs to be on the 40, pronto

Yeah, well at least I'm housebroken.

by HypoLuxa on Oct 18, 2007 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Added to the 40 man

Boggs, Diamond, Harrison, Ramirez

I think that's it.

by Adam J. Morris on Oct 18, 2007 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Fringe 40 guys

I'm not sure how Rupe qualifies as a fringe guy. I know LSB tends to significantly downgrade / forget about people who get injured, but Rupe definitely deserves his spot.

Sideshow, Wilky, Spairston, Electrician, Vasquez, White, Tejeda, Guzman, Diaz, and Feldman could all be purged if we need to keep a few spots open.

Too bad w/ Quiroz, though I highly doubt he will ever become anything important.

"When you see me smash somebody's skull, you enjoy it." - Mike Tyson

by inactive lsb user on Oct 19, 2007 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions

Kinsler arbitration

Hello I'm new here on the board. I wanted to post about Ian Kinsler. I went to rotoworld.com
they have contract information on Ian. It says that from 2007-08: Near Minimum, 2009-11: Arb. Eligible, 2012: Free Agent. That's why the Rangers want to get a contract done because after the 08 season he's arb eligible, but I think Ian will take another one year deal, because barring injury I think he will further develop into a solid player aka a Michael Young clone and benefit financially from arb or the rangers giving him a good contract.

by 83ranger on Oct 18, 2007 3:37 PM CDT reply actions

probably true

I'm not sure that there's much of a reason to sign a player like Kinsler through his arb years, unless they manage to work a deal like Sizemore's in Cleveland. It could happen, though, since the Rangers have done similar deals with Young and Blalock.

But that river of tears has dried for all of us.

by trza on Oct 18, 2007 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

2007 bullpen

Now, the Rangers do have a great bullpen, ...

The Rangers had a great bullpen in the first 2/3 of 2007. Probably their best relief corps in the last 20 years. They had two very effective closers, and their setup and long guys were locked in.

The pen was not nearly as good the last two months of the season. And I don't think a strong bullpen is a given in 2008.

Otsuka is an unknown -- he may not even pitch again for the Rangers. And if he does, given his recent injury history he cannot be thought of as a reliable member of the pen.

Benoit and Wilson are good setup guys, but neither has shown he can be effective outside that role. Ditto Frankie Frank.

I fear that, just like every year, the bullpen will be a crapshoot in 2008.

I'd love to see Mendoza and Galarraga in there from the start of the season. For that matter, I wish the Rangers followed the policy, like many good teams do, of breaking starters in through the pen. Bring Hurley up in mid-season, pitch him out of the pen, and move him into the rotation in 2009.

by LukeR on Oct 18, 2007 3:53 PM CDT reply actions

umm, 2008 pen

was the intended subject line.

Oh, for the ability to edit one's thread posts on LSB...

by LukeR on Oct 18, 2007 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Hurley needs

to show this team he can pitch a full season at AAA before he gets his feet wet. His numbers weren't impressive and his homer rate was ugly. He shouldn't be brought onto this team until 2009.

"I'd need a picture of Jamey with a shotgun saying "This is my Boomstick!" before I could see that one." DJCahill

by NYTXFAN on Oct 18, 2007 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions

agreed

Any promotion to the bigs should be contingent on a solid run in AAA.

But I think he'll achieve that. If he pitches 80 or so quality innings at OKC in the first half, why not bring him up after the break to cut his teeth on major league hitters out of the pen?

by LukeR on Oct 18, 2007 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions

big buy

One thing to consider is that the Rangers will be protected from losing a first round draft pick this offseason if they sign a type A free agent like Hunter or Rowand. The worst that would happen is that they lose a second rounder, if I understand the draft pick compensation rules correctly. This might be another enticement for them to sign such a player this offseason rather than next, since they might finish among the top 15 teams in 2008 (might).

But that river of tears has dried for all of us.

by trza on Oct 18, 2007 3:56 PM CDT reply actions

The article itself

As I read the Silver article before reading your response, I was simply left thinking, "Did he say anything at all?" It seemed a lot like he was speaking in circles and somewhat ignorant of the actual Rangers situation.

He mentions that on one scale the Rangers underperformed on the whole and on another that they overperformed. He says that they should be big buyers, but they should hold. He says that Mayberry and Harrison are major league ready to which I say, "Are you kidding me?".

Overall, I thought it was a very strange article (not just the Rangers section) that seemed to be missing the usual depth that BP articles have.

by rangeressary on Oct 18, 2007 8:20 PM CDT reply actions

No solid above average regulars on the DBacks?

Chris Young and Eric Byrnes aren't above average?

I didn't realize average was so good.

by Dirk Diggler on Oct 18, 2007 8:42 PM CDT reply actions

Byrnes and Young

Byrnes had a career year and his OPS+ was 103. That's not above average. They are going to regret that extension.

Chris Young is only 23 and will probably get better but he had a pretty crappy year. No major league player should have an OBP under .300. That is not acceptable.

You using the whole fist Doc?

by Arnold Babar on Oct 18, 2007 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions

100 in OPS+ is Average No?

So Brynes was above average. Looks like I'm right.

Chris Young hit 32 homers as a 23 year old. That's prettay good...plenty of room to improve.

by Dirk Diggler on Oct 18, 2007 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Young is good with some pop

but he sure can whiff. He was striking out at an alarming rate.

by Parman @ Lone Star Ball on Oct 18, 2007 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions

100 = OPS+ Average

103 OPS+ is not significantly above average.

10 points I think is a good, appreciable difference from average, in either direction.

For instance, as a crude estimate, you're looking at approximately an unadjusted (park, league, year, etc.) OPS in the .840-.850 range with a 110 OPS+.

Whereas Eric Byrnes' 104 OPS+ translates to an .813 OPS, which in the NL, becomes essentially an average offensive player. The problem is that Byrnes is extremely inconsistent.

He'll add some grit and positive energy to your clubhouse though, as evidenced by his 50 SB's.

"When you see me smash somebody's skull, you enjoy it." - Mike Tyson

by inactive lsb user on Oct 19, 2007 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions

OPS+ can be a poor indicator

OPS+ can be a poor indicator because it doesn't factor position or defense into the equation. IMO, the fact that he is a CF makes an OPS+ of 104 much more acceptable. For CF, C, SS and 2B I think you really should use VORP/WARP3, etc. instead. That must be considered since Byrnes does have the ability to be an average to above average CF defensively as evidenced throughout his career.

Byrnes had an 8.8 WARP3 this season, which is great. Not just good, but great. Compare that to Torii Hunter (7.6) who everybody is dying to bring to Texas and you get a good idea of how good this season was for Byrnes.

I'd rather have Rowand than either of them though.

by rangeressary on Oct 19, 2007 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions

You're right

I realize that it doesn't take positional weight into account. But you can do that yourself when looking at the numbers, and I try to.

Hell a league average OPS+ of 100 is pretty good for a CF'er. I'm just saying that he didn't put up this ridiculous season or anything, he put up a really good season for a CF'er, and I would take him in a heartbeat over Toriiiiiiii.

"When you see me smash somebody's skull, you enjoy it." - Mike Tyson

by inactive lsb user on Oct 20, 2007 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions