FanPost

BCS thoughts + personal projections

if texas wins out

if mizzou loses to kansas or OU in the big XII champ game
if kansas loses to OU in the big XII champ game

...essentially if OU wins the big XII champ game

texas will be in the BCS

why?

kansas/mizzou loses --> drop out of BCS top 5 in to 10-25 range
arizona state still has to playe USC and arizona (will lose at least one) --> drops out of BCS top 10
oregon is already gone from #2
SEC champ game: georgia/LSU - one has to lose + drop out of top 10
va tech has to play virgina (currently 10 vs 14 in BCS)

if texas can jump into the 8-10 range in the human polls then that SHOULD bump their average up. by the way they are getting just SMOKED in the computer rankings (13 5 11 4 3 5) - 5=20th, 4=21st, 3=23rd - their computer avg is 20. so if they can jump into the 8-10 range

Va Tech - .5946, .6153 (10 in both polls)
+
USC - .480 (13th in comp polls)
clemson - .460 (14th in comp polls)
boston college - .420 (15th in comp polls)

13th in comp polls: .5633
14th in comp polls: .5563
15th in comp polls: .5433

if 10 in human polls + 13th in comp polls - .5633 - 11th
if 10 in human polls + 14th in comp polls - .5563 - 11th
if 10 in human polls + 15th in comp polls - .5433 - 11th

hmm ok that falied.

texas would

8th in human polls + 13th in comp polls = .6200 = 10th

well after about 20 min of math and looking at the BCS formula i realized that texas has to be in both the top 10 in both the BCS and the human polls.

so...
kansas/mizzou loses --> drop out of BCS top 5 in to 10-25 range
arizona state still has to playe USC and arizona (will lose at least one) --> drops out of BCS top 10
oregon is already gone from #2
SEC champ game: georgia/LSU - one has to lose + drop out of top 10

theoretically that would bump texas up 5 spots

so human polls= 7 (1.5133 human avg)

+ comp rankings go from
13 5  11  4  3  5

18 10 11 9 8 10

  1. drop the highest/lowest (18/8)
  2. ADD 10/11/9/10 = .400
would give texas a 6.377

which would mean texas would be ranked 10 yet again

so once again it shows that exas has to be in the top 10 comp rankings (.630 average)

so lets say texas gets to 7 in the human rankings + 11th in comp rankings = .6977 = 9th in the polls

7 in human polls + 9th in comp polls = .7344 = 8th in BCS

7 human + 7 in comp = .7477 = 8th

thats essentially where texas has to finish imo - in the top 8

ACC - up in the air - could be clemson/BC/Va Tech/Virginia)
BIG XII - Oklahoma (i think w/o a doubt)
SEC - LSU
BIG 10 - Ohio State
PAC 10 - USC or Arizona State (i think USC)

so natn'l championship game = LSU/OU
orange (ACC) - Va Tech vs West Virginia
fiesta (big XII) - (??? (texas would go here imo)) vs (???)
sugar (sec) -  (???) vs (???)
rose (big 10/pac 10) - ohio state vs USC

who else makes it?
florida?
clemson?
arizona state?
BC could sneak in
texas?
tennessee could sneak in possibly
hawaii could if they beat boise
boise could if they beat hawaii
uconn could if they best west va.
mizzou could sneak in - as could ariz state

lets go with the remaining 4 teams (my guesses) being:
either texas or mizzou
florida

+if uconn beats west va then west virginia sneaks in
+ one of arizona state or oregon
OUTSIDE CHANCE: hawaii or boise state (whoever wins)

thoughts:
natn'l championship game = LSU vs OU
orange (ACC) - Va Tech vs West Virginia
fiesta (big XII) - texas/mizzou* vs arizona state
sugar (sec) -  florida vs hawaii*/boise st OR possibly an untaken BIG XII team (texas/mizzou/kansas)
rose (big 10/pac 10) - ohio state vs USC

FINAL PREDICTIONS:
natn'l championship game = LSU vs OU
orange (ACC) - Va Tech vs West Virginia
fiesta (big XII) - mizzou vs arizona state
sugar (sec) -  florida vs hawaii
rose (big 10/pac 10) - ohio state vs USC

ant let me just say, as a HUGE texas fan. its hard not to pick them, but if mizzou beats kansas/loses to OU in a close game/i think end up in the BCS

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