JD and upgrading CF
By all accounts JD is still set on doing something about CF....what are the pros/cons on the available options?
Rowand? Looking for at least 5/$75M, that's the biggest negative.....
AJones? Down year...weight issues...could he be had for 4/$60M?....
Cameron? What would he cost? 25 game suspension starting '08 season.....
Crisp? Boston's crazy 3 prospect asking price...3 years for $18.5M (buyout of $500K in 2010)....
Patterson? Maybe 2 years $7-8M...is he really that far behind Crisp?....
Lastly, a trade for young guy's (Mets/DBacks?).
What's realistic? Will we still need another bat?
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63 comments
Comments
Sign Fukudome
by dstar442005 on Nov 28, 2007 5:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm really starting to like the idea
by Longhorn on Nov 28, 2007 5:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
then
by dstar442005 on Nov 28, 2007 5:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd and Murphy
Cruz can be the backup OF.
Cat plays 1B against righties.
Boggs starts the season in Frisco or Oklahoma.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 28, 2007 5:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
so
by dstar442005 on Nov 28, 2007 5:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd???
Please get over your Marlon Byrd infatuation
by LtDan on Nov 28, 2007 9:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Marlon Byrd infatuation?
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 28, 2007 9:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Come on AJM...
by slc ranger on Nov 28, 2007 9:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
by dstar442005 on Nov 28, 2007 10:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
serioulsy doubt Adam would do the bird
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xuHcNcP2jw
by LtDan on Nov 28, 2007 10:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Houston, we have a problem
I don't think there's any doubt we HAVE A PROBLEM in the outfield?
by LtDan on Nov 28, 2007 10:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wilkerson
by jman55 on Nov 28, 2007 10:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd v. Wilkerson
Wilkerson's OPS in 2007: 786
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 28, 2007 10:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i think he meant defensively
by ab03 on Nov 28, 2007 11:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it's the difference
by a bebop a rebop on Nov 28, 2007 11:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Boggs should be in OKC this year, with a September callup possible if he keeps hitting like he did last year in Frisco.
Cruz is an enigma. He has the most talent of anyone in our current OF, but will he ever put it together? My gut says no. But I would mind him platooning with Cat in LF. At worst he'd be a defensive beast out there when he started against lefties.
Murphy is a 4th OF to me. I wouldn't mind giving him a shot to prove he could possibly be more, but he's not a guy I would go out of way to give a shot to.
by thedirkatron on Nov 28, 2007 5:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly, dirk
by LtDan on Nov 28, 2007 9:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz...
by bflood36 on Nov 28, 2007 6:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
in general
by ab03 on Nov 28, 2007 9:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Put me down for that as well...
by slc ranger on Nov 28, 2007 5:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
However, does Cameron count against the 25 man roster while suspended?
by RangerMad on Nov 28, 2007 7:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cameron
by jamcadbury on Nov 28, 2007 9:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Play nobody in centerfield
by Agreen07 on Nov 28, 2007 5:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Play with 4 OFers...
by slc ranger on Nov 28, 2007 5:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another Bat
Now if you were to get Crisp, the lineup would not be all that threatening. Regardless, I would be fine with just getting Crisp. I really like his glove, and am willing to overlook his bat. Am I overvaluing Crisp's glove? Probably.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Nov 28, 2007 5:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If you are willing to give up Hurley for Crisp
by Agreen07 on Nov 28, 2007 6:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Crisp
by Excel Hearts Choi on Nov 28, 2007 6:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm beginning to look at Andruw......
Since Boston has gone crazy about Crisp, I compared him to Corey Patterson and there ain't much difference (other than a little lower OBP). No pospects lost & less $$$ as a stopgap.
by tklawless on Nov 28, 2007 6:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Patterson is awful. Just awful.
by RangerMoto on Nov 28, 2007 6:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yes
by JBImaknee on Nov 28, 2007 7:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
[Dirk clenches fists, mutters something about MDB]
by Brian Thomas on Nov 28, 2007 7:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
by RangerMoto on Nov 28, 2007 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
I don't see the difference between him and Crisp.
Patterson was really good defensively in the past, though the stats I've seen are split on whether he was good in '07.
He doesn't hit much, but he's been nearly identical to Crisp the last two years.
I like Crisp better in the abstract (I think he's got more realistic upside at the plate), but since Patterson costs us only money, I don't see why everyone hates on him but has nothing but love for Covelli.
The only reason I've cooled on Patterson is that I read somewhere he apparently wants a three year deal worth 24mil+. I thought he'd be more of a bargain than that.
by thedirkatron on Nov 28, 2007 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Patterson
Crisp has played three full seasons. He was an above league average hitter in two of them. By some statistical measures he was considered the best centerfielder in the league last year. Crisp is much better.
I don't see why David Murphy wouldn't be just as good a bet to play centerfield as Patterson. I can't find any reason there would be to sign him at all. We are chock full of 4th outfielders.
by badradiorules on Nov 28, 2007 9:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Crisp
And he wasn't good with the bat either of the last two years as a CF (.702, .712).
As I said below with Patterson, I've seen some metrics which called him a pretty darn good CF in '06, though he seems to have declined in '07 for some reason. I don't trust defensive stats much, but I do think there's some value in them. Mainly he just passes my eye test. Every time I've seen him I liked the way he went after balls, and he seemed to have a pretty darn good arm for a speedy guy.
Basically it comes down to this: I think Crisp is better than Patterson defensively, but I don't think the gulf is as wide as some believe it to be. I think they're about the same as hitters... passable. But the main difference to me is that Crisp is going to cost you quite a bit in trade, and Patterson just costs money. (The only reason I've backed off Patterson is that I thought he'd be a cheap bargain sign... something like 2yrs/10mil, and that's apparently not the case at all.)
by thedirkatron on Nov 28, 2007 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
At this point I'm leaning towards neither...
Patterson- anything over 2/10 mil say no. ( 3/24 mil is insane...we may be able to get Fuku for 6 mil more!)
The price better come down significantly on these guys or I just don't see it working in Arlington. I say go after Fuku hard and if they can find a way to sign him. I would rather see a Murphy/Byrd platoon over the current asking price for these 2 players if Fuku is in RF.
by slc ranger on Nov 28, 2007 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Crisp
Every defensive stat I've seen of Patterson says that he was good in 2006 and really bad in every other season. I'm not big on eye tests, I like numbers and the numbers that I've seen say that he's not very good. If you have numbers from any year other than 06, I'd love to see them.
With the unreliablity of defensive stats, I can see how you can say that Crisp is only a little better defensively, but to say they are the same hitter? Come on. There's a lot of reason to believe that he will return to the form that he showed in Cleveland, which was well above average for a centerfielder (albeit about average for a left fielder which is where he played then). Patterson in 3100 at bats has a sub .300 OBP. OUCH. We need that guy?
I hear you, if Crisp really costs three prospects (which he won't) then move on to someone else....not named Corey Patterson. In a fairly large sample size, Patterson's career RF9 in CF is 2.37. By contrast, Marlon Byrd's in 2.41. Patterson's career OPS+ 83. Byrd's 94. I just don't get why we need another below average player in the outfield, when we have plenty of those. If all else fails a Murphy/Byrd platoon, as bad as that is, is clearly as good as Patterson.
And whatever GM gives Patterson more than 2/$10 million should be fired on the spot.
by badradiorules on Nov 28, 2007 10:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I see where you're coming from
If he's not a good defender though, then you're right... I want nothing to do with him.
One thing I want to mention about Crisp. I've read somewhere (wish I could find a link) that in order to help his defense in CF he pulled a Michael Young and lost weight in an effort to increase his range. And apparently it worked. I was impressed with what I saw of him in center during the playoffs, and all the defensive metrics I've seen say he was very good in '07.
But could it be that (like good old Franchise Face) all that weight he lost caused his dip in batting prowess? If so, then I don't know how likely it is that he could suddenly regain his Cleveland form from back when he was a LF.
by thedirkatron on Nov 28, 2007 10:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't disagree
I wouldn't mind acquiring a guy with Patterson's weak offensive stature as long as he can really handle cf well.
by badradiorules on Nov 28, 2007 10:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
oh no
by trza on Nov 28, 2007 8:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Awww, why not?
Me: "I just can't take any movie seriously when they completely ignore the rules of the sport they're supposed to be playing."
Brian Thomas: "Who cares if the whole movie was a ham-handed and hackneyed attempt to pull at my heartstrings, or that all of the characters were one dimensional cliches? When Hilary Swank was dying they played violin music! That means it was dramatic! VIOLIN MUSIC MEANS IT'S DRAMATIC!!!"
by thedirkatron on Nov 28, 2007 10:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And...
Brian (pretend-italicization): That explains alot.
by Brian Thomas on Nov 29, 2007 8:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts on Coco
B. By most accounts, there are two serious suitors for Crisp - the Twins and Rangers, if the Twins decide to go in a different direction, it could quickly lower Boston's asking price.
C. Crisp and Patterson are not very comparable. Patterson has a career .298 OBP. Crisp, while not blowing anyone away with his career OBP of .328, it is higher than some guy who just signed a 5yr/90mil contract. Plus, Patterson is poor defensively, while Crisp is considered one of the best in the game.
D. I see Crisp as great defensively and a solid #9 hitter.
E. If it takes more than Laird and a marginal prospect, then forget about it.
by Randy Richardson on Nov 28, 2007 6:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
On B
He's not a shoe-in, but he's at least ML depth in center.
by hightowersmith on Nov 28, 2007 7:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Patterson versus Crisp defensively
It's a defensive metric from the 2006 season.
Patterson is the best in the AL at 20 runs saved.
(Crisp is last at -13 runs saved, but it was his first season playing CF, and pretty much evrything I've seen says he made huge strides defensively between '06 and '07.)
FWIW, the stats I've seen from '07 are split on whether or not Patterson was any good.
I'm skeptical about defensive stats in general, but I have a hard time believing Corey Patterson is a "poor" defender in center.
by thedirkatron on Nov 28, 2007 7:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Patterson's D
by Randy Richardson on Nov 28, 2007 8:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yah
If he's an above average defender, I think he could be a good value signing.
If he's as bad as some of y'all seem to think he is, then I'd want nothing to do with him.
by thedirkatron on Nov 28, 2007 9:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Crisp
That's a funny way of phrasing it ...
by Chase Irwin on Nov 28, 2007 10:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I say we inquire about Pie
by BudLight on Nov 28, 2007 7:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think that option has passed
by TRanger on Nov 28, 2007 8:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Defensive Fielding Metrics
Anything related to Zone Rating (ZR) is typically a mediocre-decent measure of defense because it tends to quantify, somewhat objectively, how many balls each fielder gets to and makes an out on out of how many chances he has.
Range Factor (RF), however, has virtually no use as a decent measure of defense since it doesn't account AT ALL for the number of chances a fielder has. So if an OF plays behind a ground-ball staff, then, he was almost definitely have a lower RF than a poorer OF who plays behind a fly-ball staff.
As to Crisp vs. Patterson:
I'm not sure how good Crisp has been. Here's his ZRs since he's been in the league:
in CF
Year INN ZR
2002 269 .897
2003 462 .865
2004 807 .865
2005 80 .778
2006 901 .837
2007 1216 .911
An average CF is around .880.
in LF
Year INN ZR
2003 347 .876
2004 293 .949
2005 1200 .906
An average LF is around .850.
So Crisp has definitely been a defensively above-average LF, but he's only really had one year where he's been above-average defensively in CF (granted, it was last year when supposedly he slimmed down to handle the range of CF).
But like others have pointed out, if he lost that weight to improve his defense it's likely that he also will never do as well as he did OFFENSIVELY in 2004 and 2005.
Crisp is a decent gamble if all you give up is Laird and a B- prospect. He's a HORRIBLE gamble if you're trading 3 prospects for him.
Patterson's Defensive stats:
Year INN ZR
2002 1217 .875
2003 710 .869
2004 1368 .898
2005 987 .900
2006 1079 .926
2007 1057 .885
So Patterson's ranged from slightly below-average defensively to very good defensively. And he's done it generally in a lot more innings than Crisp.
So, if anything, I'd rather have PATTERSON defensively than Crisp.
OTOH, Patterson is not worth 3 years/$24 million. His offense is putrid. I'd be ok with giving him 2 years/$10 million or a Crisp-sized contract.
But if I had to choose between 2 years/$11 million w/ a $7.5 million option for 2010 for Crisp - 3 prospects or 3 years/$24 million for Patterson, I'd probably choose Patterson.
Really, the CF will likely be a holdover until the farm develops some good-great players, and 3 years/$24 million isn't really an albatross contract (cf. M Young extension, Matthews' contract, Zito's contract, or Hunter's contract).
However, giving up 3 prospects for someone who likely won't even be a centerpiece of your team when you contend is WAY too much of an overpayment.
Req
by Requiem on Nov 29, 2007 1:32 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanx, Req.....
To sum it up...3 good prospects plus 3/$18.5M is WAY too much for Crisp, as he's not much (if any) better than Patterson, or Murphy/Byrd for that matter. Also, 3/$24M is nuts for Corey... I'm guessing more like 3/$15 or 2/$12.
by tklawless on Nov 29, 2007 9:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Patterson/Crisp
I'm not trying to "hate" on Patterson. But Crisp is clearly a better offensive player and I guess it can remain up in the air about their defense.
Career Totals:
Crisp: .280/.329/.409
Patterson: .258/.298/.414
by Randy Richardson on Nov 29, 2007 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said in another post
And Patterson was rushed a bit. IIRC, he was the youngest player in the major for almost a whole year, and he had to deal with Dusty Baker, who is this generations greatest ruiner of young talent.
In the last two years they've been essentially the same offensive player.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2007 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Patterson/Crisp
FWIW, Crisp played almost 100 games in CF in his best offensive year (2005), although I get your point about losing power.
by Randy Richardson on Nov 29, 2007 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Walks are great
Crisp the last two seasons: .702, .712
Patterson the last two seasons: .757, .690
Bottom line: Neither of them is very good.
by thedirkatron on Nov 29, 2007 8:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Crisp/Patterson
if they lead to an increase in OPS."
I don't know how to respond to that.
I'm not contending that either player is or isn't "very good." I'm just disagreeing with the people who are saying they are the "same player", - the stats just don't show that.
by Randy Richardson on Nov 29, 2007 9:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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