Beane gives up on 08: Haren to the DBacks

by RangerMoto on Dec 14, 2007 5:35 PM CST Comment 43 comments

Via MLB.com: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071214&content_id=2326595&vkey=hotstove2007&fe xt=.jsp

A's get 6 prospects from Arizona for Haren + 1 (Cust?) *Update [2007-12-14 18:40:36 by RangerMoto]: The 'plus one' is Connor Robertson*.

Also, the Diamondbacks get underperformers Qualls and Burke *Update [2007-12-14 18:40:36 by RangerMoto]: also Juan Gutierrez* from Houston in exchange for closer Valverde.

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uhh

all i have to say is Billy Beane absolutely pwned whoever is running the Dbacks. Wow.

by Longhorn on Dec 14, 2007 5:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Goodness

a B- 3B/1B with good upside, a raw OF with good upside, a polished young pitcher with good upside, a duo of potential 5th starters and Aaron Cunningham. Huh.

Better or less than Teixeira deal?

by FirebatM3 on Dec 14, 2007 5:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think it is considerably less

than we got for Teix.

Which is pretty remarkable. 1.5 years of a middle order bat would seem to be worth a lot less than 3 years of an affordable #2.

LF platoon = Catalanatto and Byrd. CaTyrd for short?

by tricer on Dec 14, 2007 10:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Gives up on 08

Gets ready for 09-14.

That's a pretty sweet haul.

by brettgardner on Dec 14, 2007 5:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I'm really not so sure.

Mind you, this is because I'm not sure if Carlos Gonzalez will ever amount to anything, but to me, this package needs Carter and Gonzalez to work out to justify giving up a legitimate ace who is signed cheap for the next three years.

by FirebatM3 on Dec 14, 2007 5:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well yeah.

If none of the players they traded for does anything, then obviously it was a bad one. With the players' track records, however, I'm betting that this is a very good trade for the A's, and a good one for Arizona as well.

by brettgardner on Dec 14, 2007 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I mean

work out as in hit their full potential. Look, Carter and Gonzalez are decent prospects, but both are very, very raw. I think the best bet to work out in this deal is Brett Anderson, but other than that, I'm not sure Oakland got anything more than two B range prospects.

by FirebatM3 on Dec 14, 2007 5:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I hope you're right.

by brettgardner on Dec 14, 2007 5:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

they

got 4 out of Arizona's top 10 prospects, and AZ used to have one of the better systems in baseball.

by BHill on Dec 14, 2007 5:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That was

when Steven Drew, Chris Young, BJ Upton and gang were prospects though. The key word there is used to be, I don't think the D-Backs were really a top 10 system this year.

Beyond that, it's the type of prospects they got. It's not really a bunch of guys ready to contribute, but a bunch of guys with obvious holes, and a lot of questions to be answered.

Don't get me wrong, it can turn out to be a great deal, but there is significant risk in it and I can't see why the As gave up a young ace they controlled for 3 more years for a package like this.

by FirebatM3 on Dec 14, 2007 5:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

chris carter

he's getting passed around like a doobie

by ab03 on Dec 14, 2007 5:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Valverde

great pickup for the Astros. If they convince Clemens to pitch next year. They will win the NL Central.

Red Sux Nation is an evil organization.

by BillyBobisdrunk on Dec 14, 2007 5:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

do you actually believe that?

by DSheppard on Dec 14, 2007 5:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

another article ...

Her is Ken Rosenthal's article; it has no new info in it.

by BHill on Dec 14, 2007 5:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The prospects

Pitchers Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland; outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham; and first baseman Chris Carter

by Outworlder47 on Dec 14, 2007 5:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

When

Did Dana Eveland become a prospect? I remember him from when he played with Nashville. Nice enough pitcher but I don't think he has a high ceiling.

http://www.mvn.com/milb-rangers

For old times sake...C'mon Kelly! :-)

by Beverly23 on Dec 14, 2007 6:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And to think the Twins

were going to give up Santana for crap. Boston is out of that unless they put in both Buchholz and Ellsbury for Johan.

by Longhorn on Dec 14, 2007 5:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Minnesota should

at least get Ellsbury and Lester. However, I question whether BOS is really serious about acquiring Santana. They just don't want the Yankess to get him.

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws. ~Rick Wise, 1974

by RangerMad on Dec 14, 2007 8:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Um. Wow?

Webb
Haren
Unit

That would be dominant.

Unit could be coming back for 300:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071203&content_id=2316285&vkey=news_ari&fext=. jsp&c_id=ari

"Why am I the only guy who's got bio information on here? I mean shit where do you guys work anyway?" - BGL

by Chase Irwin on Dec 14, 2007 5:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Unit is brittle

I bet he doesn't make more than 12 starts in 08.

"Suppose that climate change is not real and all we do is adopt green technologies...then all we've done is given our kids a cleaner world." -John McCain

by RangerMoto on Dec 14, 2007 5:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

and he's really only ok

when he plays

by ab03 on Dec 14, 2007 5:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

If he stays healthy, I'd be more than happy if he produced a 123 ERA+ from the #3 slot.

"Why am I the only guy who's got bio information on here? I mean shit where do you guys work anyway?" - BGL

by Chase Irwin on Dec 14, 2007 5:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I was going off of his 2006, not his 50 innings of 123 ERA+ last year. even last year, he pitched over 6 innings once, although he was pretty good for 10 starts.

by ab03 on Dec 14, 2007 6:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

D-Backs also deal IF Alberto Callaspo

To the Royals for P Billy Buckner.

Busy day in Arizona.

by Outworlder47 on Dec 14, 2007 5:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The D-Backs

Hmm, this is very odd.

First, where do they plan on playing Burke? If Chad Tracy does come back, they have

3B Tracy
2B Hudson
1B Jackson
SS Drew
RF Young
CF Upton
LF Byrnes

Where exactly do they place this guy. Burke can't buy a break, he goes from one filled out team to another.

Also, I have to wonder why they're stocking up on random players at this point. Their Runs Allowed-Runs Scored differential was negative last year, suggesting a huge influx of luck was the explanation for their run. This might be an example of a team overplaying their hand as a result of a miraculous year.

by FirebatM3 on Dec 14, 2007 5:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

Well, they do have a slew of young guys who should be better next year, at least in theory.

Chris Young, Drew, Upton and Jackson should all be better next year, though I think Byrnes in particular is a good bet to regress.

With Webb and Haren at the top of the rotation, though, they should be pretty freaking good.

Between them and the Dodgers, the Rox are gonna have a tough time getting back to the promise land.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Dec 15, 2007 12:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They have Moses to help them though!

"Suppose that climate change is not real and all we do is adopt green technologies...then all we've done is given our kids a cleaner world." -John McCain

by RangerMoto on Dec 15, 2007 2:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Dec 15, 2007 12:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

I would not necessarily call Chad Qualls an underperformer, but Chris Burke definitely, considering he was a first-round draft pick and signed the highest signing bonus for a pick in 'Stros history. Qualls didn't do as well in the 9th inning, but he was definitely a decent and adequate 7th or 8th inning guy, especially in 04-06. Hope this helps.

by Triple347 on Dec 14, 2007 6:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

D'Backs make 2 good trades

Haren is outstanding. Valverde a flash in the pan.

The three true outcomes - Does it make me money, does it get me fed, or does it get me laid?

by JTodd on Dec 14, 2007 6:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

valvarde? flash in the pan?

career era+ of 141
career era of 3.29

the guy who finished ahead of miguel cabrera, jose reyes, brandon webb in the MVP voting?

valvarde had one bad year.

by knockoutking24 on Dec 14, 2007 8:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Valverde

He's had three excellent seasons, and two mediocre/bad ones. You say he had one bad year, but a 109 ERA+ (2004) for a closer is not good. For a closer it's below average. An 81 ERA+ (2006) is atrocious for a closer.

Here's his career VORP:

2003 - 16.1
2004 - 2.4
2005 - 21.9
2006 - 2.1
2007 - 26.1

So basically he has had three very good seasons and two where he was teetering around replacement level.

Here are Quall's same numbers:

2004 - 7.8
2005 - 15.5
2006 - 21.8
2007 - 25.3

So Qualls hasn't been quite as good as Valverde when Valverde has been good, but he's been much more consistent and overall might be the better pitcher during the past four seasons. He doesn't get the K's that Valverde gets, but considering the D-Backs have him for an extra year and also got the additional players, I think this was a great deal for the D-Backs.

by rangeressary on Dec 14, 2007 8:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lets Hope

this works out for the A's as good as the Tim Hudson trade did.

by texasbuckeye on Dec 14, 2007 6:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I leave for a couple of hours to go to Jamey's book release party, and come back to find two keepers on my main fantasy team get traded. :)

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Dec 14, 2007 8:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

So

How was it?

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 14, 2007 8:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Book release party

It was pretty fun. I didn't stay that long, as the weather up here is terrible tonight, but I did get Davis, Duran, Whittleman, Beavan, and Mathis to sign my 2008 Bound Edition.

Beavan still gives off an air of being really cocky, but as long as he can back it up on the mound, I'm OK with that. Davis is a little smaller than I thought he would be. Duran is a little bigger.

The Rangers' Dallas office is in a shopping center next to a Pei Wei. It's not very big, but they had a decent selection of merchandise (including Liverpool FC jerseys) and they had the Silver Boot and one of Sundberg's Gold Gloves on display.

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Dec 14, 2007 9:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Haren Trade

Here are my thoughts as to why the D-Backs made a good trade:

Haren was the key piece of the Mulder trade, back when Mulder was considered a young stud. Some seem to act like he was a flash in the pan last season, but that's not the case at all. He was the #1 prospect for the Cardinals in 2003 (BA), and almost immediately jumped right into the middle of the A's rotation after being traded.
Here are his last three years in terms of VORP: 2005 - 39.5, 2006 - 41.4, 2007 - 56.4. That's really good.
Haren is only 27 and under the D-Backs control for four years.
Gonzales can jump right into the A's starting lineup, and should be good. He's still so young and should be their starting fielder this year.
After Gonzales the rest of the trade centers around two young guys with high ceilings (Carter and Anderson), but neither has seen any action above A-ball.
The rest of the trade from the A's side of the trade is Eveland/Cunningham/Smith, who might be able to jump right into the backend of the rotation, but that's about where he projects. IMO he projects as a long reliever / back of rotation guy. Cunningham was ranked as high as #6 in the White Sox prospect rankings, and put up a pretty good OPS in a short stint in AA (.898 OPS), but still has a ways to develop in order to be a major league rightfielder. He is quick, but doesn't project as a major league centerfielder, which seems to limit the value of his OPS some. Greg Smith is filler.

So basically, the D-Backs got a great young starter along with a poor reliever in exchange for Gonzales and a young group of guys who have extremely high ceilings but are going to require a bit of time and development to get there.

I think this trade is a great one for the D-Backs. They are already young and good. Yeah, they way overperformed last season, but with guys like Drew, Young, et. al. continuing to develop they will most likely only get better. Now they have a rotation beginning with Webb-Haren-Owings, and that might be the strongest 1-2-3 punch in all of baseball. The A's retool and work towards 2011. Hopefully for the Rangers it won't work out, but since there was no way they were going to contend in 2008 or 2009 I guess the risk was worth it.

by rangeressary on Dec 14, 2007 9:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

but I believe Haren is only under control for the next 3 seasons...third year is a option year.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Dec 14, 2007 9:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Blanton apparently will be traded soon

What will the A's get from the Dodgers for him. I have a bad feeling that the A's rebuilding project will last one year, and they are contenders again by 2009.

I own a lot of Apple stock,so buy more iPhones!

by Ajax on Dec 15, 2007 9:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

At least to this point, I don't see many if any of these players being the types who are going to lead them to a playoff run in 2009. Gonzalez is very talented, but unless he grows up really fast, a la Hanley Ramirez, he will need time to translate his talent to MLB success.

I think that they're actually at a pretty similar point as we are, unless Harden starts making 30+ starts conistently.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 16, 2007 4:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You have to be a little encouraged by the trade

The Dbacks got a real stud of a pitcher signed for 3 more very cheap years.

And they did it w/ a package that we could easily put together. Some pretty nice pieces, but not one really big time stud, unless you are counting Gonzalez, which is debateable.

Everyone is always saying that you have to fork over a premeire, top 25 kind of prospect, plus 2 other B levels, to get a talent like Haren.

Maybe so, but I think Beane got back something a little different.

Why do you hate freedom?

by Brian Thomas on Dec 16, 2007 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

He got four guys who all have promise, a couple of them quite a bit of it, but all have a "yeah but..." element. And he'd better be really right about the hitters because unless they are big time bats, they won't make much difference, since they are a 1B, a RF and a LF (though some thing Gonzalez could play a marginal CF for a couple of years). Anderson is good and should be an MLBer, but the question is, is he that good.

Anyway, some of these guys could be good players, and Gonzalez has a ton of talent (and Oakland obvoiusly loves him), but this just doesn't scare you like Haren/Barton/Calero.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 16, 2007 8:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

something that you know was a big part of the Rangers consideration, but it is still meaningful is that the players they got in their deadline trades were: C, C, SS, CF, LHP, LHP, LHP, RHP, RHP. That is a pretty big deal to me, assuming that they did get some good players.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 16, 2007 8:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs