Durrett on Jennings

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 31, 2007 1:34 PM CST in News

Richard Durrett has a blog entry up advocating going after Jason Jennings.

I've gone back and forth on Jennings...he had a breakout year in 2006, but then struggled in 2007 and was hurt, and really wasn't all that good before 2006.

Initially, I was against going after one of the broken pitchers unless it was a really cheap one year deal, since I wanted to see Kason Gabbard and Edinson Volquez both in the rotation to start the year. But with Volquez out, I've warmed somewhat to the idea of going after someone like Jennings or Colon.

Still...Jennings' numbers are worrisome. Yeah, he's pitched in Coors Field most of his career, but his career road numbers are underwhelming...a 4.48 ERA (in the N.L., no less) in 554 career road innings, 6.17 Ks per 9 and 3.39 walks per 9, with .877 homers per 9 allowed. In his huge 2006 season, he actually had a better ERA at Coors than on the road (3.56 vs. 3.97).

He's a groundball pitcher, although in 2006, he actually had his worst groundball rate of his career (1.18 GB/FB, with his previous worst being 1.52). His success was due to lowering his walks per 9 rate, and by allowing a much lower percentage of homers per flyball allowed (7.0%, versus a career rate of over 11%). Thus, although he was allowing more flyballs in 2006, his home run rate dropped, and I don't know how sustainable that's going to be for him.

Still...all he'd cost is money, and the Rangers are way under budget right now. Jennings supposedly wants a multi-year deal, but I find it hard to believe he'll get that at a price that will satisfy him.

I'm wondering if a 1 year deal, at, say, $5 million guaranteed, with another $5 million in incentives based on innings pitched, and with a $10 million team option for 2009, would be enough to get him signed. I'd probably be on board with that.

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Seems reasonable enough

Especially if Padzilla or Milly get moved at the deadline.

Miles changes his signature too much.

by inactive lsb user on Dec 31, 2007 1:30 PM CST reply actions

No Interest

In this guy.

Based on what they did last year, how in the world could Millwood or Padilla be moved at the break?

Yep, pay some of their contract.

Personally, I'd like to see us be able to move both those guys, ignore Jennings, and let our "stocked" farm system make their debuts.

by LBrooks on Dec 31, 2007 1:51 PM CST reply actions

I'm not really questioning this approach

but are you prepared for the ~50 win season that would ensue? A rotation of McCarthy, Gabbard and three of Loe, Hurley, Galarraga, Mendoza, Harrison, etc. with our lineup and all would probably be the worst team in baseball. Something tells me that not many people would appreciate that.

Padilla and Millwood were horrible last season, but you've got guys among those 3/4/5s that I listed who could put up 7+ ERAs if required to make 20+ starts.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 31, 2007 1:59 PM CST up reply actions

50 Win Season

Hey, there's a chance we could have a 50 win season with what we currently have.

If your going to put together a crap team, may as well do it with prospects.

by LBrooks on Dec 31, 2007 2:14 PM CST up reply actions

Wow

Really?

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Dec 31, 2007 3:01 PM CST up reply actions

I don't know

with the shape our top pitchers were in last year, and no big name bats in our lineup after Tex's trade, we still won well above 50 games. I think we could have a very small off-chance of a Wild Card if we keep Millwood and Padilla, at best, and without them, I think we could win 70 or so...

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Dec 31, 2007 8:04 PM CST up reply actions

Our staff

...wasn't in all that bad of shape in the latter part of the season. Even for the whole season, they were 11th in the AL with a 4.75 team ERA. I know that doesn't conflict with your conclusion, but I'm not sure that they can repeat that with what they have, and I'm pretty certain that they couldn't without Millwood and Padilla.

They got 182 innings of a 2.98 ERA from Eric Gagne, Akinori Otsuka, Ron Mahay, and Jamey Wright. They've replaced them with...no one. Millwood had a 4.29 ERA after the ASB in 16 starts. Padilla had a 3.86, though in only 8 starts. Volquez even started six games with a 4.5. So that's two rotation spots in the second half that stabilized the team with a low-4's ERA that would be gone.

Take all of that away and put the post-Teixeira team out there, and I'm not sure that you're not on a 50ish win pace. There is hope that the lineup is better and all of that, but my point was that taking away the guys you already have taken away, fielding a team without Teixeira in the lineup all year and taking away any hopes for decent numbers and reliability that Millwood and Padilla could offer...and refusing to try to add anything else could give could leave you with a pretty scary bad situation, given the lack of ready depth in the rotation.

by Brett Perryman on Dec 31, 2007 8:56 PM CST up reply actions

Based on what they did last year

Well, they've both had much better years then 2007, so you're of course hoping they'll be more like those years and improve their value. I think the team would particularly like to move Padilla if he starts strong.

I don't mind a weak 2008 with lots of young arms pitching, but signing Jennings wouldn't get in the way of that. But to just jettison Millwood and Padilla now is not only selling low, you run the risk of alienating the rest of the team. I don't think any of them expect to win 95 games, but they do want the team to at least try to be competitive.

Cranberry Sauce

by t ball on Dec 31, 2007 2:28 PM CST up reply actions

Im okay with a one year rental

who could be moved possibly at the dead line. No option year. Come 2009, Hurley and Harrison should get a chance at a spot not to mention that possibly Mendoza or gallaraga could emerge as a decent number 4 -5 type. This year though, depth is gonna be needed. No need to rush any of our pitchers in the minors until 09, imo. Diamond, Harrison, Hurley are all gonna be knocking on the door in 09. If you occupy spots with projects then how do these guys make it into the rotation?

""I love GOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLD" blueglovelefty

by NYTXFAN on Dec 31, 2007 2:06 PM CST reply actions

Why wouldn't you want an option year?

Worst case scenario, you decline it, with maybe a small buy out.

Best case scenario, you get a pitcher you like on a presumably low-cost one year deal for '09.

And guys make it into the rotation either by breaking in through the bullpen (not a horrible scenario) or simply because shit happens... meaning that no matter who you sign to be our #5, the chances of our top 5 guys each making all of their starts all season long is basically nonexistent. A spot will open up during the season, even if it's only for a few weeks or so, and that's a good way to break a kid into the rotation without a ton of pressure.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Dec 31, 2007 3:06 PM CST up reply actions

When Will He Be Ready?

I don't really mind that the Rangers are looking to take a chance on an injured pitcher, but I have to wonder when Jennings will be ready. Previously, there were some who wanted the Rangers to sign Prior, but the problem is that he won't be ready for the start of the season. The Rangers are looking to see how their young players improve. So, if a few months into the season Prior is ready to make his debut as well as somebody like Hurley (just using his name as an example), what do you do? If Prior is just a rental why risk giving playing time to him over a younger, healthier player? Calling up both of the pitchers could be troublesome because how do you shake up the roster? Players like Botts and Cruz are out of options, and DFA'ing them could mean future regrets (that is, they start to hit like the Rangers previously expected).

Looking back at the injuries to Jennings, he had an elbow injury (torn right elbow tendon) on 08/21/2007 (the date placed on the 60-day DL). Unlike shoulder injuries (Colon), elbow injuries are easier to overcome, but will he be ready for the start of the season? If not, then pass on Jennings, even if he has more promise than some of the other "risky" pitchers.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Dec 31, 2007 3:32 PM CST reply actions

What ever happened to the electrician?

Has Jamey Wright been signed by anybody yet? I wonder if he'd consider a year contract with club option for a second. He was doing pretty well there towards the end of the year. I'd rather go with him then Jennings or Colon. We at least know he's healthy.

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 4:57 PM CST reply actions

We also know...

...he sucks...

The whole point of someone like Jennings or Colon is that, if they are healthy, they can be really good.

With Wright, you know what you are getting...a crappy 5th starter...

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 31, 2007 5:00 PM CST up reply actions

I hope

you are kidding...

Or starting New Years a tad bit early?

Ron Paul doesn't go to the gym. He stays fit by exercising his civil rights.

by miles on Dec 31, 2007 5:02 PM CST up reply actions

no not kidding at all..

You think Jennings is all that? Look at his numbers last year they were horrible. Wright
in his last 18 innings only gave up 5 runs, his walks were down and I distintly remember the Angels announcers raving about him. You'd rather go with 2 huge injury question marks? Well that is the Rangers way isn't it?

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 5:09 PM CST up reply actions

I don't

want Jennings or Wright. Both are N.L. pitchers, and that scares me.

Colon is a proven A.L. pitcher that has pitched in the division and has faced everyone in the division. If he can stay healthy, I think he can be a good pitcher for us.

Ron Paul doesn't go to the gym. He stays fit by exercising his civil rights.

by miles on Dec 31, 2007 5:16 PM CST up reply actions

yeh IF he can stay healthy...

IF my uncle had tits he'd be my aunt. Thats a big if.. and you don't know what you're going to get out of him. Just because he did it when healthy doesn't mean he's going to have nearly the same stuff as he did. That's why he's still unsigned.
But yes if we had to go with one of the two I'd do Colon. Jennings ERA has been over 5 for 5 out of the 6 years including a whopping 6.45 last year. Wrights ERA last year was 3.62 and he finished strong.

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 5:20 PM CST up reply actions

So your uncle wants

gender assignment?

West Vagina who? Boomer Sooner!

by boomer1 on Dec 31, 2007 5:21 PM CST up reply actions

LOL no not that I know of..

why you selling your tits?

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 5:24 PM CST up reply actions

Sorry LA

I don't wear a bro so I have no man boobs. lol

West Vagina who? Boomer Sooner!

by boomer1 on Dec 31, 2007 5:30 PM CST up reply actions

LOL no reason to apologize..

that's a good thing !! I've been told I should wear a bra since my chest is bigger then most womens but I think I'm going to abstain for the moment.

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 5:34 PM CST up reply actions

Just trying to add a little levity

lol

West Vagina who? Boomer Sooner!

by boomer1 on Dec 31, 2007 5:36 PM CST up reply actions

I agree with you miles

Get him here and let's see what he can do if it doesn't work out cut him or at the very least trade him for a low level prospect.

West Vagina who? Boomer Sooner!

by boomer1 on Dec 31, 2007 5:20 PM CST up reply actions

Oddly Enough

Wright posted a career best ERA+ of 125 last season. Of course, he only pitched 77 innings. Moreover, he pitched in 20 games, but only made 9 starts. He had four wins last season, but one came as a reliever. If the Rangers are looking for a starter, Wright is not a good candidate.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Dec 31, 2007 5:22 PM CST up reply actions

oh ok well I'm sure the guy..

with the 6.45 ERA is a better candidate.

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 5:26 PM CST up reply actions

Jennings

I am not really sure about Jennings. But, I do think that Wright would not be a good fit in the rotation. He has value, but out of the bullpen. Look at his game log for 2007. In his last eight appearances, he gave up 5 runs over two games (22.2 innings pitched). Not a single appearance was a start. This is not a question of either Wright or Jennings. Just because I dislike one, does not mean I am promoting the other.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Dec 31, 2007 5:39 PM CST up reply actions

Well yes it is true we'd be picking

from a list of 3 not great candidates. But unfortunately since the Rangers are the catfish (bottom feeders) of the American League that's what we're left with. So since you don't approve of any of these 3 what would you suggest? I think Wright could be stretched to be a starter but at this point all 3 of those guys are a crapshoot.
(no pun)

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 5:51 PM CST up reply actions

Wright != Starter

I don't think Wright could be stretched into a starter. His ERA+ as a starter is not good in the recent past. I am not particularly fond of Colon due to the shoulder injury. Even with surgery, recovery is not a sure thing. If the Rangers are to take a chance on a veteran pitcher, what do you expect of him? Colon could be an ace, but do the Rangers need an ace for one year? It is all about development of the younger players who merit a spot on the 25-man roster. Veterans should be there to provide stability. In light of this, how about Jon Lieber. He may not have the upside of Colon or Jennings, but he does not have the injury problem (he hurt his foot, which should heal nicely). There is something to be said of staying in the rotation. He has consistently put up an ERA in the 4's, but can eat up a decent amount of innings. I really think that this is all that the Rangers should be looking for. Millwood and Padilla have the potential to have a really great year.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Dec 31, 2007 7:36 PM CST up reply actions

Why...

...are you so reluctant to acknowledge his performance prior to 2007?

And Wright's awful career performance, for that matter?

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 31, 2007 6:34 PM CST up reply actions

but Adam I did acknowledge his performance..

prior to 2007. I said his ERA has been over 5 for 5 out of the past 6 years :) . Oh but wayyy back in 2002 he had a good year. How's that?

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 6:37 PM CST up reply actions

4 out of the last 5 years ..

that is. But I will admit he had a decent 2006 but he's very hit or miss especially with the injury issues.

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Dec 31, 2007 6:41 PM CST up reply actions

Jason Jennings?

I don't see the point in that. Where's RA Dickey when you need him? It's not my money, so what the hell, I guess...

Would much rather see Colon here, although except for the trade thing that doesn't make any sense either.

I'd go with all youth and wouldn't care if they only won 40 games.

Ctrl - V

by Dustin on Dec 31, 2007 6:15 PM CST reply actions

it is kinda remarkable

that last year JD thought he assembled a contender and we started out with something a little worse than mediocrity. Then we started a rebuilding by trading off most of the parts with value, and the result of that was more mediocrity. Now that the rebuilding is in full swing, it looks like this year is most likely gonna be more mediocrity. Seems like us Ranger fans are cursed with an outcome of mediocrity, no matter what process is used to assemble the team.

I'd gladly take a one year break from mediocrity and could handle some full-scale suckage if I thought it would eventually pay off. Problem is, I don't really see any reason to run a bunch of young players out there in 08 because we don't really have any good young players that are ready to break in, except Salty - and there is talk of sending him back to the minors.

Juevos Daniels: biggest stones in the business.

by tricer on Dec 31, 2007 6:59 PM CST up reply actions

I think

Jason Jennings is a better option than Bartolo Colon.

Jennings is younger(29), and his ERA bloated last season only after he began having arm problems. He is a career mid 4 ERA pitcher if you exclude last season's numbers, and a 4.5 ERA is good in the Rangers' history for starters.

I am in favor of bringing in a veteran starter such as Jennings because we don't have any young starters that NEED to start the season in the 5 slot; he can be trade bait at the deadline if we aren't in the race, and he can be a solid pitcher if we are in the race.

Here is the article that proves he will be healthy:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070821&content_id=2161892&vkey=news_hou&fext=. jsp&c_id=hou

Furthermore, he is a pitcher that I think can add to the remote chances of us having some meaningful games in September, considering I believe us to have the 6th or 7th best lineup in the AL contrary to what some of you guys believe.

"2008 should be about rebuilding, 2009 about taking a step forward. 2010 is the target year." -AJM

by dstar442005 on Dec 31, 2007 7:56 PM CST reply actions

You've been

drinking the JD Kool-Aid and wearing the Rose-Colored Glasses if you think this is the 7th best line-up in the AL. Tom Too Cheap Hicks SUCKS.

Oh, wait... I thought I was Habib at the DMN blog for a sec... sorry.

by Inkara1 on Dec 31, 2007 8:24 PM CST up reply actions

Kansas City

Chicago White Sox, Seattle, Oakland, Minnesota, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore all worse.

"2008 should be about rebuilding, 2009 about taking a step forward. 2010 is the target year." -AJM

by dstar442005 on Jan 1, 2008 12:07 AM CST up reply actions

No way

Seattle is questionable, but they should be better than us, especially if F-Her takes a step forward and they get something better out of Sexson.

Minny has 4 players who would each be the best player on this team in Johan, Mauer, Morno (sp?) and Nathan... and maybe more like 5 or 6 if Liriano can come back healthy and/or Delmon Young learns that you don't have to swing at every pitch. It's hard for me to believe they'll be worse than us. If they trade Johan for a big bag of nothing and Liriano's arm falls off again, then perhaps they might be worse than us, but I would pencil them in for more '08 wins than us.

Toronto would be challenging LAA for the "favorite" crown in the West. They're so f'd by their division.

CWS and Tampa Bay could be interesting this year. Tampa Bay especially could take a step forward if the trio of Kazmir, Shields, and Garza can keep improving and if Pena can repeat his out-of-nowhere '07.

I do agree that if you were to a power poll of the AL right now, Baltimore, Oakland and KC would all likely be below us right now, though.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 1, 2008 12:54 AM CST up reply actions

not disagreeing with anything you say, but

I think he was probably referring specifically to their lineups.

by a bebop a rebop on Jan 1, 2008 1:49 AM CST up reply actions

Oh dang it

You're right.

My bad.

Apologies.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 1, 2008 2:01 AM CST up reply actions

Jason Jennings

The Rangers already have Kameron Loe. Same pitcher with less velocity.

by doolindalton on Jan 1, 2008 8:30 AM CST reply actions

Nothing against Jennings but

Don't the Rangers have Millwood, Padilla, BMac, Gabbard, Loe as a rotation with Mendoza, Galarraga, Murray, Rheineker, Tejada, Rupe and Diamond waiting on the 40 man roster? Thats 11 options for the rotation.
Considering we are already have 41 on the roster pending Fuki's contract, adding Jennings just does not make sense right now.
JD must make a move first, Hopefuly a 2 or 3 for 1 to open up some spots on the roster for a move like this.

by Bigfan16 on Jan 1, 2008 8:56 AM CST reply actions

Loe

I think the Rangers should keep him in the bullpen. He has the stuff to be a really good setup man. He always seems to be gold first time through a lineup but hitters tend to lock in the more they see him. Let him come in for an inning or so and use that great sinker and hitters should be baffled. He can always be an emergency starter or a guy that comes in whenever Padilla gets tossed in the 1st inning for throwing at someone.

by Steven on Jan 1, 2008 10:16 AM CST up reply actions

Those guys

Loe is probably slated for the pen.

Mendoza and Galarraga spent most of last season in AA, and probably need to spend some time in AAA.

Murray is a question mark.

Rheinecker is a reliever.

Tejeda is likely gone.

Rupe spent most of last season hurt.

And Diamond won't be ready to go for a while, given that he had T-J surgery last year.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions

Jennings

One can raise eternal questions about the Rangers' pitching, but the point is, Jennings is no better, if not worse than those you classify as question marks or gone . He throws a sinker that sometimes results in ground balls, which with the Rangers infield is necessarily a great plan. But if he makes a mistake and gets it up in the zone, it's batting practice time for the other team. He couldn't strike out a good high school batter with his fastball. I'd rather have Rupe coming off an injury than Jennings.

by doolindalton on Jan 1, 2008 12:26 PM CST up reply actions

Baylor Studs

but Jennings can pinch hit for us and play backup 1B, too...he's really good...

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Jan 3, 2008 10:55 AM CST up reply actions

I've said it before, I'll say it again

Just make CJ Wilson a starter.

You give good pitchers every opportunity to prove they can't handle starting before you move them permanently to the bullpen.

I don't understand our thinking regarding his role on this team.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 1, 2008 4:56 PM CST reply actions

I agree...

He would be a great starter, I don't see the reasoning around keeping him in the bullpen when he would make our rotation much better.

Ron Paul doesn't go to the gym. He stays fit by exercising his civil rights.

by miles on Jan 1, 2008 5:20 PM CST up reply actions

Actualy I dunno if he'd be great

But he certainly has all the tools to succeed.

I just don't get the harm of trying him as a starter, especially since we have information straight from the source saying he'd love a real shot at starting.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 1, 2008 5:25 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah..

Starting is the position he knows best, since the Rangers converted him to bullpen.

He would be more valued at starter for this team, they should atleast give him a chance to show them what he has at that position.

Its not like we HAVE to have him as closer, Benoit could take that role over...

Ron Paul doesn't go to the gym. He stays fit by exercising his civil rights.

by miles on Jan 1, 2008 6:00 PM CST up reply actions

especially if

we're going to give the closer job to Every Day Eddie...

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Jan 3, 2008 10:56 AM CST up reply actions

I agree too

Wilson seems as though he has the tools to have success as a starter. I advocated keeping him in the pen in 2006 and was fine with it in 2007. But I think that he's progressed to the point that he should get the opportunity that Kenny Rogers got at a similar stage in his career.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 7:31 PM CST up reply actions

Enough Said

Anyone who gives up 11 runs in the first inning without even getting out of the inning doesn't need to be pitching for the Rangers. I watched every game Jennings pitched last season and he was decent to start the season but turned out being as bad or worse than Woody Williams the deeper we got into the season. Jennings' velocity never really topped 86mph, arm trouble or not the guy is overrated and will be a bust for whoever is stupid enough to pick him up.

The Baseball Genius has spoken.

by BaseballGenius on Jan 1, 2008 5:37 PM CST reply actions

There are other options to consider

if the rangers are going to add a veteran arm to the rotation. Already discussed on this site are the options of Colon and Jennings. Garcia will not be able to help until around the ASB. Not discussed at length are Clement who may be more ready than any of the rehab vets available, Livan Hernandez who defines innings eater (though in the NL) and Benson and his hot wife.
Of these options is jennings really the best? IMO I would go after Clement, Colon, Hernandez first then look at Jennings. Leave Benson and his wife for the tabloids elsewhere.

by Bigfan16 on Jan 2, 2008 9:08 AM CST reply actions