The price of Jason Bay

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 5, 2007 2:56 PM CST in News Comment 40 comments

There's been some talk of the Rangers coming in and trying to buy low on Jason Bay...just to give you a flavor, here's the deal Will Carroll is saying is being discussed:

A five-player trade between Cleveland and Pittsburgh has been discussed, and while it likely won't go down in Nashville, the talks could be rekindled at some later date during the offseason. The Indians would send left-hander Cliff Lee, catcher Kelly Shoppach, and outfielder Franklin Gutierrez to the Pirates for Bay and catcher Ronny Paulino. However, the Pirates are said to prefer a young left-hander, either Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers, in Lee's place.

The Rangers don't have a Franklin Gutierrez -- the equivalent probably would have been Nelson Cruz, if Nelson Cruz had turned out to be good, although Gutierrez is younger and has more upside.

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Bay

I think he is really damaged goods. Probably best to stay away. However, if the Pirates get another pitcher, maybe they would be willing to move Snell.

Fire Ron Washington

by pblack on Dec 5, 2007 2:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well one thing is for sure...

He was hurt and I heard that a couple different times that he was playing through it. Bay is hardly damanged goods to me unless he had a career threatening injury. Doubtful. When healthy he is the equivalent to Mark Teixeira. To be able to get Bay this cheap does raise some questions but it is the Pirates afterall.

by slimshadty12 on Dec 5, 2007 4:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Could you give us an idea...

what a deal from Texas would need to look like to match/beat the Tribe's? Obviously Paulino wouldn't be needed in Texas. And instead of making it bigger (by adding in a young Pirate pitcher) I'm curious what Rangers would be necessary for Bay alone. His contract is very reasonable... for now.

by HaegerChamp on Dec 5, 2007 2:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

BTW

For all the hype, these winter meetings have been a huge letdown. Outside of the Tigers/Marlins deal, there has been a whole lot of nothing. Curse the Twins and their indecision. I think they are at the root of this transaction constipation.

Fire Ron Washington

by pblack on Dec 5, 2007 2:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

bay

i would think something like laird+ prospect or gabbard and someone like whitteleman?

by knockoutking24 on Dec 5, 2007 2:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I imagine

it would be much more than that. Probably Salty and a bunch o' relievers.

"2008 should be about rebuilding, 2009 about taking a step forward. 2010 is the target year." -AJM

by dstar442005 on Dec 5, 2007 2:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

btw

prospect upon looking at it further would probably have to be someone like poveda or kiker.

probably a kiker-level prospect

by knockoutking24 on Dec 5, 2007 3:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

pittsburgh denies it

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071205&content_id=2318410&vkey=news_cle&fext=. jsp&c_id=cle&partnered=rss_cle

ive given up on bay. and fukudome.

and pretty much anyone remotely appealing.

by DSheppard on Dec 5, 2007 3:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Saw that

I'm starting to agree with you.

by hightowersmith on Dec 5, 2007 3:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

frustrating

I wasn't expecting much excitement from the Rangers this offseason, but I have to admit that it was pretty frustrating watching other teams pick up young outfielders like Milledge, Quinton, and Delmon Young...while we look to have MLB's worst outfield (or close to it, I didn't look up any stats) for the second year in a row with no minor league help in sight.

I was wondering, with the ML talent on hand right now, where would you guys rank the Rangers among the AL? Isn't it quite possible that we are looking at being the worst team in the AL?

Some professionals get better with age and experience. Lawyers, professors, engineers. Hookers? Not so much. -- DJ Cahill

by tricer on Dec 5, 2007 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well

if oakland has a fire sale they will be horrible.

KC will suck...cuz they always do.

baltimore sucks.

by knockoutking24 on Dec 5, 2007 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

if baltimore trades bedard

then i pick them.

by DSheppard on Dec 5, 2007 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

KC

anyone know if they're set on Greinke starting or him being in a relief role.

Fire Todd Dodge.

by sprite on Dec 5, 2007 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

starting

by bushe on Dec 5, 2007 4:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks.

Fire Todd Dodge.

by sprite on Dec 5, 2007 4:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rangers

We could definitely be the worst in the AL next season. I definitely think KC will be better. Just to put things into perspective, they may not have room in the OF for guys that would start for us and you have to think Alex Gordon will be better next year. Baltimore could suck real bad, but if they get back some MLB ready talent for Bedard then they could be better. Tampa should be better. Our only hope is that the A's trade Blanton, Haren, Street and Swisher, then we could be better than them. It could get real ugly next year though, because let's be honest, its not like our manager is going to give us any tactical advantages or even effectively use the talent on hand.

Fire Ron Washington

by pblack on Dec 5, 2007 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fire Sale

Would/could the Rangers get Swisher and for who? I'd really like to see him as s stop gap 1st base then move to a COF at the RBiA.

by j d on Dec 5, 2007 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You can't possibly think we have the worst OF

in baseball.

What are you, some troll who lives under a bridge? I've been assured by Ben Morris that this Outfield will be Fantastic, and will be populated by Gold Glovers and Silver Sluggers.

"LSB: accept the losing" - Sharky

by DJCahill on Dec 5, 2007 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No you haven't.

Just because I think you're a grump doesn't mean we don't have a weak outfield.

"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."

by benmor78 on Dec 5, 2007 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You think Cahill's a grump?

I just don't see it ....

by Athos on Dec 5, 2007 6:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They may not have the worst record

but I think they will, nearly hands down, have the worst talent in the AL.

by badradiorules on Dec 5, 2007 3:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

so

does that make WASH the best manager?

I'd say the the A's, White Sox, Orioles are definitely worse.

I also think we'll probably be better than the Mariners. Maybe the Rays, Jays, and Royals.

What makes you guys think we won't AT LEAST go .500? We played .500 after June 1 with the same guys we have now. Plus we had injuries.

"2008 should be about rebuilding, 2009 about taking a step forward. 2010 is the target year." -AJM

by dstar442005 on Dec 5, 2007 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No, I don't think it'll be Wash

I'd so because of the veterans (Millwood, MY, Blalock, etc.) that'll allow them to be a little more consistent.

All those teams are just more talented than the Rangers, some without question. The problem with your .500 theory is that we aren't going to play four months we have to play six.

I have no idea how you can look at the rosters of those teams that you mention and see how the Rangers can compete with any of them on paper (maybe with the exception of the Orioles).

We don't have one big league starting outfielder or a first baseman!!!!!!!!!!! Couple that with a below average starting rotation and you get an awful, awful team. Look at the young talent on the Rays, Jays and Royals and its not close at all.

by badradiorules on Dec 5, 2007 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You are

definitely overreacting. We played .500 for 4 months with that "horrendous" outfield. The only reason we so horrible the first two months was all the starting pitchers did horrible for no apparent reason, they then settled down because they got used to Wash's system or something.

I think our starting pitching will be better than last year. Millwood and Padilla are bound to be better. Mccarthy will get better. And everyone knows I think Volquez is the next big thing. As for Gabbard.......well.....we have Hurley, Mendoza, Loe, Murray, etc.

Show me how we aren't better than the White Sox and A's.

"2008 should be about rebuilding, 2009 about taking a step forward. 2010 is the target year." -AJM

by dstar442005 on Dec 5, 2007 4:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Alright

Here you go. As things are today, considering everyone is healthy.

SP:
A's: Haren, Harden, Blanton, Gaudin, DiNardo/Meyer? No Rangers starter had a better ERA than ANYONE on this staff.

White Sox: Buerhle, Vazquez, Contreras, Danks, Floyd. Contreras=Padilla, Danks=McCarthy, Buehrle>Millwood, Vazquez>Volquez, Floyd>Gabbard

Bullpen:
A's: Street, Duchscherer, Embree, Flores, Calero, Lugo. Awful 07 for this group, but every bit as talent as the Rangers pen.

White Sox: Jenks, Linebrink, Thornton, spares
Great at the back end, lot of ? setting them up. Rangers are better.

Lineup:
A's: C-Suzuki, 1B-Barton, 2B-Ellis, SS-Crosby, 3B-Chavez, LF-Swisher, CF-Kotsay, RF-Buck, DH-Cust. The only places we are probably better are c, 2B, and SS.

White Sox: C-Pierzynski, 1B-Konerko, 2B-Richar/Uribe? SS-Cabrera, 3B-Crede/Fields LF-Quentin, CF-Owens, RF-Dye, DH-Fields
The Rangers are better at 2B, maybe c or ss.

Now, if the A's make a salary dump, they could get below us, but the White Sox will likely make a couple of moves to get better.

Should I go player for player with any other teams, because neither of those seem close.

by badradiorules on Dec 5, 2007 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Still not that impressed

by CLE's offer. Cliff Lee is nothing.

Would Laird, Poveda, and Duran be listened to?

T.R. -- enough is enough.

by Chase Irwin on Dec 5, 2007 3:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

What about Harrison, Laird and Mayberry, especially if they are looking for "a young left-hander". You'd be selling high on Harrison and low on Mayberry, but neither figuere to be stars in the big leagues, but have value now.

by badradiorules on Dec 5, 2007 4:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I thought of that combination

and was going to post it, but it seems there's a lot of variability in the perception of JMJ's value.

I'd hate to see Harrison go, but you have to give up value to get value.

T.R. -- enough is enough.

by Chase Irwin on Dec 5, 2007 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

The way I see it, we have other pitching prospects in the same league as Harrison, we don't have anyone near the big leagues who could be Bay other than maybe Davis, but we still have RF and 1B to fill among others.

by badradiorules on Dec 5, 2007 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

JD

I think has to come forward with a strong offer for Bay, all things considered. The timing seems right and, as you alluded to, we don't have Bay type prospects anywhere near ready, other than Davis.

Everyone keeps mentioning how the Tigers took on risk in getting Ordonez when they were still rebuilding, well we'd be getting Bay for his age 29 season, and he could still easily be productive in 3 years.

Bay in LF and Davis in RF could set up for a heavy hitting group, provided there is a stud defensive CF to balance them out ...

T.R. -- enough is enough.

by Chase Irwin on Dec 5, 2007 4:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

In three years...

...Bay will be playing for another team, unless you sign him to an extension...

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 5, 2007 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well yeah

that was the implication -- that the Rangers would pony up at least market value, if not overpaying to keep him.

T.R. -- enough is enough.

by Chase Irwin on Dec 5, 2007 6:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Concur

JD has to come away from this offseason with at least one piece of the missing three outfielders or 1B.

There's always going to be a price and every prospective trade or FA signing price can make you queezy, but if that's the price, to me it ain't all bad.

by badradiorules on Dec 5, 2007 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt it

You are basically replacing Gutierrez with Duran and Poveda, which I don't think does much for the Pirates, who want a major league ready young COF bat.

by Adam J. Morris on Dec 5, 2007 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Pirates

Are they ever going to get away from demanding "major league ready" guys in deals. Hasn't that been their biggest downfall in the last 10 years.

by badradiorules on Dec 5, 2007 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well that, refusing to spend money

and some poor drafting.

Brian Bullington over BJ Upton was outrageously stupid at the time, and it only looks worse now.

They got burned in several deals, although getting Bay in the first place was a pretty darn good deal.

Dwyade once challenged God to a game of 1-on-1, only to realize that not even God can play 1-on-1 against Himself.

by thedirkatron on Dec 5, 2007 6:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Refusing to spend money??

Brian Sabean begs to differ...

Brett Gardner broke my heart...

by Brian Thomas on Dec 5, 2007 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Brian Sabean is the world's greatest and most handsome genius.

Dwyade once challenged God to a game of 1-on-1, only to realize that not even God can play 1-on-1 against Himself.

by thedirkatron on Dec 5, 2007 10:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yea

but I don't even think they knew what they were getting.

by badradiorules on Dec 5, 2007 9:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Gutierrez

What is his upside, really?

I think Duran could play 3B for them over Bautista and Castillo. Or you could move Sanchez to 3B and let Duran play 2nd. Duran is pretty close to ML-ready. Point being, the Pirates need help in more places than COF. Poveda has value to pretty much any team's farm, much moreso than Cliff Lee, anyway.

As far as Gutierrez, I see that he was basically a league average hitter in OPS+ at 24, which is bad for a COF. He slugged ok (.472) and more than his milb career % of .462, but his .318 OBP was awful. Even if you expected him to improve, does he project to be much more than league average for a COF?

T.R. -- enough is enough.

by Chase Irwin on Dec 5, 2007 6:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs