A few random notes and comments...

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 25, 2007 5:01 PM CST in News

Just some things I thought I'd throw out there...

PECOTA is surprisingly bullish on Daniel Haigwood, with more optimistic projections for him over the next 5 years than for more heralded guys, such as Edinson Volquez or Nick Masset. Haigwood's top 3 comps are Chris Capuano, Doug Davis, and Noah Lowry...it would be really nice if PECOTA is on to something here, and Haigwood produces like those three have.

Volquez's top comps? Dennis Tankersley, Herm Wehmeier, and Ray Culp. Busted live arms like Juan Cruz, Mike Judd, Ryan Vogelsong, Kurt Ainsworth, and Juan Dominguez also pepper the list.

The 2006 Haigwood is also in John Danks' top 20 comps list...

I'm really, really tired of the President's Day commercial with the blaring hip/hop version of "Hail to the Chief." I don't even know what car company is running those ads...I think I've blotted it out of my mind out of hostility for the commercial.

For those who think that 2006 reflected a new level of performance for GMJ and Mark DeRosa:

GMJ, pre-ASB 2006: .328/.374/.539
GMJ, post-ASB 2006: .296/.368/.448

DeRosa, pre-ASB 2006: .332/.384/.494
DeRosa, post-ASB 2006: .265/.333/.423

2006 wasn't even a career year for those two...it was a career half-season.

On the other hand, I am predicting big things for Ian Kinsler in 2007. I think he's going to make a big step forward, and establish himself as one of the 2 best second basemen in the A.L.

Don't look now, but the Mavs have quietly put themselves in position to win 70 games. Particularly since their remaining schedule is pretty soft...they have two games against Phoenix left, one at home, one on the road, but after that, the most difficult games are probably at Detroit, at Denver, and at the Lakers. And 12 of their next 17 are against the East...

I think we're going to be surprised about how solid a return one of the middle relievers -- Rick Bauer or Joaquin Benoit -- will end up bringing in late March.

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Comments

Wow

Easily, the most random collection of thoughts from Adam in quite a while. Might as well have thrown a Seinfeld trivia question in there too. ;-) I jest, I jest. Posts like this one are part of the reason I'm addicted to this blog.

Edwards-Obama '08

by RangerMoto on Feb 25, 2007 5:11 PM CST reply actions

Amen...

to the comment about the car commercial. There are few things out there I bother to hit the mute button on these days, but that is one of them.

by manderskat on Feb 25, 2007 5:30 PM CST reply actions

GMJ

post all star break GMJ is not too shabby. thats a lot of walks.

"I want him focused on figuring out a way to beat that lefty's ass." - RW

by ab03 on Feb 25, 2007 5:34 PM CST reply actions

Derosa

He fell back to earth in the second half, but I still think his contract from the Cubbies is reasonable. He showed a lot of improvement and is an above average infielder who can fill in at SS, 3B, and right field. I'll be rooting for him.

It's Coagulicious!

by trza on Feb 25, 2007 5:36 PM CST reply actions

I think I agree with you on a Bauer/Benoit return

when you say "surprised", how "surprised" are you thinking?

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:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on Feb 25, 2007 5:52 PM CST reply actions

As much as any sort of pitching should

have nice value, I just can't see Bauer/Benoit bringing anything of substance.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 25, 2007 8:51 PM CST up reply actions

RP trade value

Thinking about trade value of relief pitchers...

Why did Atlanta trade a 27 year old first basemen coming off a .285/.354/.561 campaign with 32 homers and 38 doubles? Wouldn't Aki have similar value on the market as Mike Gonzalez?

Anyway, if dealing Benoit/Bauer/Feldman. I would think maybe a decent second tier prospect, maybe someone coming off an injury, something like that probably.

One last thing - if Mahay would fetch an interesting prospect or make a difference as a throw-in on a deal, I wouldn't mind moving him. I think either Rheiny/Koronka could be a servicable second lefty.

by tricer on Feb 25, 2007 8:55 PM CST up reply actions

LaRoche

I don't think Atlanta perceived that as his true talent level. I think they figured they were selling high on him, that he was going to regress going forward.

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 25, 2007 9:04 PM CST up reply actions

to me...

...it looks more like a player that had made incremental jumps at ages 24 and 25 and then busts out and begins entering the prime of his career at 26 with probably his best 2-3 seasons in front of him.

What do you think?

by tricer on Feb 25, 2007 9:17 PM CST up reply actions

Atlanta's budget

was/is very tight. The AOL delayed sale allowed no tolerance. It's also why they had to release Giles, when the perceived arbitration salary would be more that the budget. Thorman and the bargain Wilson will be adequate. And glove questions ignored, Kelly will probably outhit Giles.

Just consider all y'all lucky for having Hicks. The Braves are in for a short run of uninterested owners with tight budgets.

by JohnMPerkins on Feb 26, 2007 11:36 AM CST up reply actions

braves finances

Considering that, it would seem wise for them to unload Andruw before the trading deadline and get some more prospects in the pipeline. What do you think are the chances that A. Jones is moved this summer?

by tricer on Feb 26, 2007 12:03 PM CST up reply actions

He has a full no trade & says he'll use it

and go into Free Agency, period........don't know how firm that is but, sounds convincing.

by tklawless on Feb 26, 2007 1:18 PM CST up reply actions

How accurate is PECOTA

in terms of predicting future performance? Just curious.

by Rangerchick on Feb 25, 2007 5:59 PM CST reply actions

I believe I read a few weeks ago

that the various prediction systems are all around 70% "accurate". Someone was looking into compiling about 5-6 of the prediction systems numbers together and getting a unified prediction that he projected would be about 80% "accurate".

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:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
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by jtts on Feb 25, 2007 6:21 PM CST up reply actions

I wonder how

they would do that. Those projectors are pretty smart, 70% is pretty amazing, all things considered. 80% seems like a pipe dream, and I don't see how you could get there simply by combining a bunch of 70% systems.

by t ball on Feb 25, 2007 11:11 PM CST up reply actions

I can't code it

But there is a thing called unadjusted recurrence. It's when a particular trend is identical or near identical in a variety of samples. To get an 80% projection from a pile of 70% projections, they would first have to smooth to limit anomalies, then find recurrence, weight it with +/- limits, then take the whole schmear back into their original calculations.

It's a refinement process airlines use in forecasting the sales and unit costs portions of their yield management systems.

Caution: That stack of previously finished projections would have to be known to be 70% correct or the smoothing would have no impact.

"When you're riding in a time machine way far into the future, don't stick your elbow out the window, or it'll turn into a fossil."

by Ed Coffin on Feb 25, 2007 11:57 PM CST up reply actions

smoothing

thanks, Ed, very interesting. It's been way too long since I did anything with math other than balance my checkbook and check ops...

by t ball on Feb 26, 2007 7:43 AM CST up reply actions

that car commercial has PISSED ME OFF

i thought it was a local new york commercial, but i guess it isn't. i thought it would stop after president's day, but it hasn't.

by austintxhorn on Feb 25, 2007 6:01 PM CST reply actions

Yep

And it's recorded so loud you have to mute the TV every time it comes on, which is really damn often.

by Dustin on Feb 25, 2007 6:45 PM CST up reply actions

Random indeed!

The Mavs are a thrill to watch.

Can't wait to see what trades go down involving our bullpen.

I hope Kinsler does as you say and turns into the pimp we need.

My wife's super bowl is starting here in a bit involving a bunch of movies I've never heard of. So that sucks.

"I feel like I have an idea about what we can do to keep the A's from beating us so much." Ron Washington

by hubcityraider on Feb 25, 2007 6:01 PM CST reply actions

Castro

What's PECOTA saying about Fabio Castro?

by alon91 on Feb 25, 2007 7:44 PM CST reply actions

Castro

His 50th percentile PECOTA is a 4.72 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 58.1 innings.

90th percentile: 73 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

by RCCook on Feb 25, 2007 8:27 PM CST up reply actions

Castro

He also has one of the lowest Similarity Scores -- 7 -- that I've ever seen.

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 25, 2007 8:29 PM CST up reply actions

Haigwood Fan

I'm sure I'll take more grief for this, like I did last week, but I think Haigwood could be one of the surprises of the minor league system this year.

My basis are his 2005 numbers. They were pretty good, with eleven of those starts coming at AA Birmingham. Walks really seemed to hurt him last year. If he can cut those down, he could have a good season.

Proud Supporter of the Texas Rangers since 1973

by T Coleman on Feb 25, 2007 7:53 PM CST reply actions

I don't know that he'll burst into the top 100

prospects in baseball or anything like that, but I can certainly see him becoming a prospect worth following.

He's entering his 5th season in professional baseball, but he's still only 23 so he could conceivably continue to refine his game for another year or two or three and still be young enough that I'd hesitate slot him as a career minor leaguer.

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:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
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by jtts on Feb 25, 2007 8:29 PM CST up reply actions