Murray Chass: Statheads ruining baseball for real fans
Murray Chass of the New York Times has figured out what is stalling baseball's growth, what is alienating fans and driving people away from the game.
Not steroids, not competitive imbalance, not free agency, not any of the usual suspects writers throw out there...
I receive a daily e-mail message from Baseball Prospectus, an electronic publication filled with articles and information about statistics, mostly statistics that only stats mongers can love.
To me, VORP epitomized the new-age nonsense. For the longest time, I had no idea what VORP meant and didn't care enough to go to any great lengths to find out. I asked some colleagues whose work I respect, and they didn't know what it meant either.
Finally, not long ago, I came across VORP spelled out. It stands for value over replacement player. How thrilling. How absurd. Value over replacement player. Don't ask what it means. I don't know.
I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that's their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans' enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.
People play baseball. Numbers don't.
Damn you, statheads!!! (Shake of fist) By thrusting VORP on unsuspecting fans, you are robbing them of being able to enjoy the "human element" of the game!!!
I mean, you can't enjoy baseball unless you appreciate the grit of Darin Erstad and David Eckstein (what is it with these D.E. initials and grit, by the way?)...VORP is nothing compared to EAI (the Erstad Awesomeness Index), and you can't even measure EAI with numbers anyway...
Update [2007-2-27 16:46:6 by Adam J. Morris]: -- Fire Joe Morgan takes on this article, in a much harsher and profane way than I did. WARNING -- the link contains several uses of the "F" word...
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English majors vs. engineers
by trza on Feb 27, 2007 3:25 PM CST 0 recs
LOL
Still, that's a funny characterization. It reminds me of my dad (also a history major) bitching about all the engineers he worked with and how none of them could write worth a damn.
by RCCook on
Feb 27, 2007 4:29 PM CST
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I'm with you
by trza on
Feb 27, 2007 5:31 PM CST
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Stats-oriented fans/writers
I mean really, WTF? No combination of incorrigble old codger and narrow-minded dumbass can rationalize getting paid to make assertions like that.
But instead, I wanted to agree with your statement about the snobbiness of many statheads.
For example, Joe Sheehan. That guy can be irritatingly sanctimanious. Smarmy, in fact. And whether his "new age" stats are sound or not, the fact is, he probably hasn't played competitive sports at a level higher than 8th grade. And that's relevant.
As far as I know, hardly anybody at BP or most of the other so-called stathead sites has played meaningful college or pro sports, either. Look at their bios, though, and they are some accomplished individuals. Smarter than most of us.
The obvious point being, as smart as these stats intellectuals are, sometimes I think they might ought to rein it in a little when they arrogantly piss all over intangible issues like clubhouse morale and the like.
by Brian Thomas on
Feb 27, 2007 6:39 PM CST
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snobbiness
I don't know any fans, though I guess there are some, who hate baseball statistics. People either pay attention to them or don't. Only sportswriters work up enough bile to complain about VORP.
I agree with you about Sheehan and some others, though, who completely disregard intangibles. You can't put a number on everything. Why was Patton a great general, because he had more win shares than Montgomery? No because he was an ass-kicker at heart willing to take big risks for glory. Why was George C. Scott so good in that movie? Because he was as ugly as Patton and had that growly voice that sounded like he had just eaten a hacksaw, but I digress...
by t ball on
Feb 27, 2007 7:21 PM CST
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BP
Not surprisingly, Will's also one of the less hardcore "stats are everything" writers on that site.
Some of the other guys may have played, but I'm not sure. Will, Joe, Jonah Keri, and Jim Baker are the only ones I've actually met.
But like you said, look at their bios, and you see a lot of MA's, MBA's, and even a doctor- Rany Jazayerli is a dermatologist.
by RCCook on
Feb 28, 2007 12:42 AM CST
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There is a middle ground
I doubt that BP just sends that guy emails out of the blue. He had to sign up at some point. Get off the mailing list or stop whining about the content they send you.
by Chris Martin on Feb 27, 2007 3:25 PM CST 0 recs
yup
to each their own, as long as you enjoy the game its all that matters
by rentz on
Feb 27, 2007 3:47 PM CST
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This is exactly...
you either buy into it or you dont.
i use VORP as a comparison tool, but by no means to i view it as gospel.
by jasun on Feb 27, 2007 4:10 PM CST 0 recs
This quote keeps coming to mind
-Grumpy Old Man
by tlt29 on Feb 27, 2007 4:17 PM CST 0 recs
Aren't grumpy old men all named 'murray'?
by mtex on
Feb 27, 2007 4:23 PM CST
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heh.
by jasun on
Feb 27, 2007 4:24 PM CST
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Also
by Lucas on Feb 27, 2007 5:06 PM CST 0 recs
And Video
by Mike Simonek on Feb 27, 2007 5:30 PM CST 0 recs
Star
by WyoRanger on
Feb 27, 2007 5:36 PM CST
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Who says baseball growth is stalling?
by Sharky on Feb 27, 2007 5:36 PM CST 0 recs
Baseball
The metrics of baseball are a constant learning experience for me. I already know the fine points of the game, and appreciate them. And I appreciate that nearly all statistics are more aggregated than predictive, but what the hell ... knowledge of VORP, ERA+, OPS+ add distinct flavor to the merits of players I already know are good. Why reject them? It's a matter in the authors' mind that something more definitive than "he's really good" detracts from the game? OK, if you want to spend the rest of your days complacently idle and not learning. Hey, when you quit learning, you just might as well die. I'm not accepting either case so long as I can prevent it.
by Ed Coffin on
Feb 27, 2007 5:53 PM CST
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He must be experiencing
Here is where I stand on the whole "stathead" vs "old-school" debate. I am not a stathead because I really enjoy watching the game and thinking about the strategy and the chess match of a live a game. I am also not very good or diligent about researching and understanding the stats that I am looking at. However, I love reading about stats and stat comparisons. I admire that ability.
His blog, I mean article is dumb. The everyday fan is not driven away by things like VORP. They just ignore it. People that don't enjoy stats are not paying attention to the "statheads". If they were then the true fans would be the ones that have the deciding votes for All Stars and not the journalists. Unfortunately the journalists have the ear of the everyday fans and that is why David "Professional DH" Ortiz is the starting first baseman for the All Star game. The Yankees and Red Sox and there journalist lackeys are the ones driving away the fans.
by kwellborn on Feb 27, 2007 7:57 PM CST 0 recs
So, nobody understands what the stats mean
To the extent that some people use them as "proof" that one player is "definitely" better than another, I can understand his criticism. It annoys me when somebody quotes 2-3 years of VORP like its a Holy Grail stat. There's certainly parts of the game that are near impossible to measure (defense and clubhouse morale in particular). Dismissing these factors as "made up" is as unfair as Chass's assertion that measuring VORP is a bad idea. The guys at Fire Joe Morgan are probably just as guilty of perpetuating ignorance as the writers they blast.
Finally, I've always felt there's something elitist and disingenuous about quoting VORP, especially to a regular fan that's not familiar with advanced math. Win modeling is the best way to measure a stat (i.e. - a stat is "good" if the team that has the higher number usually wins the game). "Runs" is the perfect team modeler for wins because the team that scores more runs that its opponent, wins 100% of the games. Therefore, you want to find players that will increase the number of runs that your team scores per game (and/or decrease the number of runs allowed). Hits, actually tracks wins pretty well at 71%. Batting average is actually, a really good statistic all things considered because it tracks wins at a 79% clip. OBP tracks wins only 1.2% better than batting average. The difference between Batting Average and OPS is another 5% of improvement. Once you get around the 85% mark, the laws of diminishing returns kicks in.
Stats like VORP, WARP, and even RC only serve to tack on an extra 1-2% more "certainty" to the stat. If you delve into the play by play data you can squeeze another 3-4% of win correlation out of the numbers, but again, you're really not talking about a huge leap in "truth".
My feeling is that VORP is an excellent academic exercise, but I definitely question the reasons for its growing usage.
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post
by jtts on Feb 27, 2007 9:06 PM CST 0 recs











