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Wednesday a.m. stuff

As you can see from the clock at the top, Opening Day is just 54 days away.

That seems kind of weird to me...while the offseason seems to have lasted for a long time, it still feels like baseball season should be more than two months away.

Bruce Chen was officially signed, finally.  Evan Grant suggests that participating in the World Baseball Classic may have hurt Chen last season...if that was the problem, that would be a good thing, because it would suggest that Chen would be a better candidate to bounce back and be a solid starter for Texas in 2007.

Grant also talks about Tom Hicks investing in Liverpool.  I don't particularly care about this one way or the other, but I do think it is interesting that, just a year or two after Hicks hired someone to look into finding a buyer for the Stars, and on the heels of all these reports that he's going broke, he's now able to pony up $225 million for a soccer team.

T.R. Sullivan has a requiem for Rick Helling, who just announced his retirement.

Craig Brown at BTB has a piece up making the case for Will Clark as a Hall of Famer.  I've seen the arguments before -- they mainly center around Candlestick's pitcher-friendly nature depressing the raw numbers in what were some truly dominant seasons by Clark -- but I'm not convinced he's a Hall of Fame caliber player.  

He does provide an interesting contrast with the guy he replaced, and ended up replacing him, in Texas...I don't think Rafael Palmeiro ever had a season as good as Will Clark's best couple of seasons, but Palmeiro was better for longer than Clark.  The steroid thing makes Palmeiro's HOF possibilities seem almost irrelevant now, but if Palmeiro were to be elected to the Hall, one would have a hard time explaining why he is in and Clark is out.

Also at BTB, John Barten has a profile up on a prospect for the hated Mariners, first baseman Bryan LaHair.  

Finally, Aaron Harang has signed a 4 year, $36 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds, buying out his final two arbitration years and his first two free agency years.

Harang, of course, is another one who got away, a pitcher dealt (along with Ryan Cullen) to the Oakland A's for Randy Velarde prior to the 2001 season.

But his development is another small data point in the ongoing debate of the baseball version of nature versus nurture...did the Rangers just happen to trade away the only good pitcher they drafted over a several year span, or did Aaron Harang become as good as he has because he wasn't developed within the Rangers organization, but instead by the A's organization, which has a sterling track record for developing pitchers?

In other words, when we complain about the bad drafts Doug Melvin had in the late 90s, particularly pitching-wise, was the problem with the players that were drafted, or with what the team did with those players once the Rangers had them?

0 recs  |  Comment 41 comments

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Bruce Chen
Actually, Chen's only two decent games last season were in early April against the Red Sox, going five innings yielding six hits and two earned runs and five days later against Tampa Bay, 7.2/5/5.  After the first two starts, he experienced a complete collapse.  One would think that if pitching in the WBC were going to affect pitching in the majors, it would be early.  I was hoping there was an injury excuse.    

by doolindalton on Feb 7, 2007 9:42 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Confused
I'm really confused by signing Chen. With 4 spots pretty well locked, why take a flier on a struggling veteran when they already have guys like Rupe, Koronka and Loe fighting for the 5th spot? Insurance for Tejeda?
"My theory of hitting was just to watch the ball as it came in and hit it." --Tommy Lasorda

by BReed on Feb 7, 2007 10:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Because
None of Rupe, Loe or Koronka is the least bit inspiring. My hopes are not high at all right now for the 5th spot.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 10:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Loe
Has he not really come back from his injury? He seemed pretty inspiring at the beginning of last season, but go no support behind him. That is, he was until his injury. Is the team saying that he's not back to that point yet?
When all else fails, there's always delusion. - Conan O'Brien

by mtex on Feb 7, 2007 10:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Am I imagining things
or wasn't there a consensus at some point that Loe didn't have the ability to get through a lineup more than once and therefor was better suited to the bullpen. And if didn't imagine it, how has that changed.

by shallrelicme on Feb 7, 2007 11:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rupe
He's more inspiring to me than Chen is. I don't have a problem brining in more pitchers to compete, but a guy with a 6+ era last season and a career 4.60 era is not my idea of holding down a spot until the kids develop.
"My theory of hitting was just to watch the ball as it came in and hit it." --Tommy Lasorda

by BReed on Feb 7, 2007 11:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

career 4.6 era
ain't too shabby for the Rangers #5 startign rotation spot.

by ab03 on Feb 7, 2007 11:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Two reasons
  1.  You can never have enough pitching depth.
  2.  Why not?  No risk whatsoever, and he's been decent in the past.

by AZranger on Feb 7, 2007 11:07 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

4.60 career era
That's not decent. He'll be killed at Ameriquest.
"My theory of hitting was just to watch the ball as it came in and hit it." --Tommy Lasorda

by BReed on Feb 7, 2007 11:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Put that into context
If he performed at a 4.60 ERA as a 5th starter in the American League, that's very very good.  I don't expect him to be that effective, but if he was, it's a GREAT sign.

5th starters are generally much worse than that.

And he was even better in 2005, winning 13 games, throwing almost 200 innings, with a sub-4 ERA.

Chances he's good aren't high, but there is ZERO risk.  ZERO.

by AZranger on Feb 7, 2007 11:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

13 wins
would be fantastic from a 5th starter. Not to mention we probably need more competition for left-handed starters.
When all else fails, there's always delusion. - Conan O'Brien

by mtex on Feb 7, 2007 11:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Context
League-average ERA for Ameriquest last year: 4.70

A 4.60 ERA in Arlington is pretty good. At Petco Park, where the league-average is 4.22, a 4.60 isn't that great.

by RCCook on Feb 7, 2007 11:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Chen
He has a 95 ERA+.

I'd be thrilled if he gave the Rangers 30 starts with a 95 ERA+ in 2007.

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2007 11:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Even if
the Ameriquest bumped his ERA up to the 5.00 range, that would be fine out of the 5th spot, above league-average production for that slot in the rotation.

by t ball on Feb 7, 2007 11:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Patterns
The Rangers always do this, they sign guys that might win at most 10 games, and that's if they go beyond expectation. What is so wrong with giving the 5th spot to a young arm and let him develop. The Rangers suck at devloping pitching because they always sign the cheap struggling veteran who has a decent spring sending guys that really deserve the spot (like Rupe) to AAA. It's a stupid pattern and the reason why we never develop our own pitching.
"My theory of hitting was just to watch the ball as it came in and hit it." --Tommy Lasorda

by BReed on Feb 7, 2007 12:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Young guys
I'm all for one of those guys getting that spot.  But I also see zero risk in bringing in someone like Chen to push them either.  I think one of them will win out in the end.

by t ball on Feb 7, 2007 1:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Will Clark
There also an analysis done recently at THT.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/historical-wsab-41-through-80/

Texas Rangers: baby step to 2007. Baby step to 2007.

by WyoRanger on Feb 7, 2007 9:49 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Both
In other words, when we complain about the bad drafts Doug Melvin had in the late 90s, particularly pitching-wise, was the problem with the players that were drafted, or with what the team did with those players once the Rangers had them?

Any chance it was both?  We sucked at both drafting and developing under Melvin?  Certainly his track record of picking major league pitchers wasn't too awesome.

His drafting and development record as a whole is fairly mediocre.  If you take away the one slam dunk, no brainer gimmee, in Teixeira, it is fairly terrible.

Jaramillo says it's all still there (with Sosa): the bat speed, the work ethic, the body, the will.

by DJCahill on Feb 7, 2007 10:03 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wait a minute
I have heard from the local media that letting Melvin go was a mistake.  Were those baseball experts wrong?  How can that be?

by Chris Martin on Feb 7, 2007 10:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I actually think
that Melvin is a solid MLB GM. Pitching has been his weakness, but while I certainly had my complaints over some of his moves, he had some success in Texas. And even though he inherited Sheets, he's finally pretty darn close to a quality rotation in Milwaukee. Gallardo is a true elite pitching prospect, right behind Hughes and Bailey in BA's estimation, and he made an astute pickup with Capuano.

Sheets
Capuano
Gallardo
Suppan

is pretty darn solid. And he's got more positional talent than we do, probably.

He did make a horrible selection with Mark Rogers though. Just think of what he could have added there to his rotation,

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 10:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To finish that sentence/thought
...after he took Rogers in the 2004 draft at #5, the next two picks, both more obvious choices than Rogers, were Bailey and Sowers. And of course other guys ranked in the top 15 or so going in who also went in the first round were Hughes, Elbert, Hurley, and of course Weaver, though he was a money thing. And that's just pitchers.

If he'd done the obvious thing and drafted Bailey, good gosh, they'd be looking tough.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 10:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's Jack Z....
their scouting director.  I don't get the sense that Melvin overrules the people he puts in place.  He's still accountable, of course, but I don't think he made the pick.

And you're right - he's one of the most underrated GM's in the game.  The young players/system he left in Texas after 2001 - in hindsight - was one of the best (Teixeira, Young, Blalock, Hafner, Pena, Mench, Monroe, Nix, Lamb, Botts, Benoit, Masset, Davis, Kolb, Wilson, Duchscherer, Beltre, Volquez).  Can't imagine a better position player group existed elsewhere.

by AZranger on Feb 7, 2007 11:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I got spoiled
by Ruben Sierra, Juan Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa, Pudge Rodriguez, Kevin Brown, Rusty Greer, Dean Palmer, Rick Helling, etc., but your list looks weak in comparison to Grieve's list.
Jaramillo says it's all still there (with Sosa): the bat speed, the work ethic, the body, the will.

by DJCahill on Feb 7, 2007 12:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Does Grieve get credit for Sosa?
I know he signed him, but I left out guys like Harang/Encarnacion whose signings Melvin oversaw.

I'm not so sure Melvin's list won't be just as good in 20 years, but it's a great discussion:

Teixeira is a Hall of Famer, as is Pudge.

Hafner, Young are great players whose legacies will depend on how long they maintain this level of production - similar to Brown, Gonzalez

Blalock (could move up a class if he rebounds), Monroe, Davis, Mench, Duchscherer, Wilson could all have very nice productive careers in the class of Greer, Palmer, Helling.  I know some will consider it heresy to put Rusty in this category - I'm assuming lengthy careers out of a few of Melvin's guys to make them "equivalent."

by AZranger on Feb 7, 2007 12:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

More significant to me
than the drop-off in talent produced between Grieve and Melvin is the drop-off in talent produced between Melvin and Hart/Daniels. These guys are responsible for Kinsler, Danks/McCarthy, Hurley, and not a whole heck of a lot else of consequence. Laird and Cruz are results of trades of Melvin's players that, better timed, might have produced even more. And they spun Hafner down into Young and then into Otsuka. ARod into Sori into Wilkerson.

They are entering the sixth year post-Melvin, which is almost his tenure and near Grieve's as well, with only a tiny fraction of the talent produced or in the pipeline.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 1:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
I consider him responsible in the same manner that a CEO is responsible for the performance of management that he puts in place. The show that Melvin ran resulted in making what looks like an awful pick there. Of course it also resulted in a fantastic pick in the second round that could potentially match all of the top options that they passed to take Rogers. If I were a Milwaukee fan, the thing that would just hurt is that it was such a high pick, and that they went the controversial route and it cost them. And the obvious route, whether it had been taking the top HS guy in Bailey or one of the top college guys in Weaver or Sowers (again, even if you take Weaver out, Sowers was an obvious choice), they'd have a fantastic looking pitcher. Maybe I'm sensitive to that because of being a Rangers fan and all of the times that they passed on the obvious choice to make some stupid choice and got burned (I'm going back to about the Fariss draft on that, through Meyer or Mayberry).

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 1:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Irritating Melvin story
I remember reading after one of our speed of sound playoff exits, not sure which, but Melvin asked some opposing player what he thought the club's problem was.

"Easy," the player said. "All your pitchers look the same. By the 2nd or 3rd day, we can lock in."

"Really?" replied our dumbfounded GM. "I never thought of that."

It never occurred to him that it might not be such a good thing to have 4 very similar pitchers in the rotation.

Yeah, Doug, unless they throw 103 MPH, probably not...

"I love hard data." some dude whose name rhymes w/ Snarky

by Brian Thomas on Feb 7, 2007 1:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
How many of the players that Melvin drafted were traded away or let go by John Hart?
"My theory of hitting was just to watch the ball as it came in and hit it." --Tommy Lasorda

by BReed on Feb 7, 2007 10:39 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

For a few (including Daniels' trades)
Hafner
ARod
Pena (though he turned out to suck and that turned out a good move)
Cordero
Pudge (was just let go)

The franchise was in much better shape when Melvin left it than when Hart left it.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 10:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It was a mistake
3 Reasons why:
  1. Only GM with a Ranger team in the playoffs
  2. Look what he's done in Milwaukee
  3. John Hart replaced him and after failing in free agency, eventually followed the course that Melvin was headed down when he was fired (get younger and cheaper).
And if he was responsible for the poor pitching here how is that Milwaukee has had so much success (relative) with their pitching. Is it in spite of Melvin?

Not a huge fan of his drafts either, and developing pitchers (or lack therof) is a legitimate concern, but the overall Melvin package was solid. I would take his record in trades ahead of his predecessor and successor.

by Brandon Wilson on Feb 7, 2007 10:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i just wnat to point out
  1. how long was he supposed to last on those laurels.
  2. Look at what hart did in cleveland.  and milwaukee hasn't won anything yet.
  3. This just means both of them are mistakes, since texas still isn't in a great position, and our suckitude keeps costing us free agents.
melvin is fine but your reasons aren't really valid.

by ab03 on Feb 7, 2007 11:07 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Harang
To me, Harang is an interesting case. I don't think that any of us who paid attention to their prospects liked giving up Harang and Cullen for a Velarde, but geez, I certainly didn't have Harang pegged to be a solid starter for years.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 10:09 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Harang
Right, I don't remember anyone saying at the time that he was anything other than a potential innings eater or bullpen arm.  Still, the Rangers aren't in a position to even give those guys up without getting something better than Velarde in return.

by t ball on Feb 7, 2007 11:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pitching Coaches
What about our pitching coaches in the minor leagues?  It seems that a player like Harang showed somebody something, and they helped Harang refine it.  In other words, I don't have much faith in the minor league coaches to truly see if a player has some value, and then exploit it.  I am not sure what changes have happened over the years, but at least there are some pitchers who should be useful.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Feb 7, 2007 1:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Liverpool
Probably a good move for Hicks. They are one of the 5 or 10 biggest clubs in the world in terms of international support and revenue. As long as they remain successful, he should make a handsome return on his investment.

You never know, though. Look how far Leeds United has fallen. They have gone from playing in the Champions League and finishing near the top of the Premiership to being relegated in a few short years. Now they are of the bottom of League One and may fall another division this year. Hard to imagine something similar happening to Liverpool, but it was hard to imagine that fall happening to Leeds.

by trza on Feb 7, 2007 11:05 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Leeds
Didn't they have a couple of scandals a number of years ago that really cost them?

I can't think of anything specific, although I seem to remember a number of their players getting caught up in some racially-motivated beating a while back.

by mparks on Feb 7, 2007 4:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

They had some bad stuff happen
You may be remembering when some Leeds fans were stabbed by Galatassary supporters in Istanbul. The club also borrowed a ton of money for new players based on predicted returns from gate receipts from Champions League matches, but then they failed to qualify for the CL (oops), leaving them with big debts. They had to sell off all players with any value, including Rio Ferdinand to Manchester United (still the most money ever for a defender). Lots of really poor management decisions.

by trza on Feb 7, 2007 5:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

MLB picks Rangers 4th
The analysis barely scratches the surface, so not a ton there. The predictions are Angels, Mariners, A's then Rangers.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20070206&content_id=1795754&vkey=perspe ctives&fext=.jsp

Texas Rangers: baby step to 2007. Baby step to 2007.

by WyoRanger on Feb 7, 2007 11:29 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

this guy
has not a clue. He can't even back up the predictions with anything but uninformed analysis that even itself, as shotty as it is, contradicts his own predictions.

by shallrelicme on Feb 7, 2007 12:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wonderboy
Is also predicting the Mariners have the best rotation and Sosa swats #600 for us in May...
"I love hard data." some dude whose name rhymes w/ Snarky

by Brian Thomas on Feb 7, 2007 1:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Anybody been watching Winter Leagues on
the Spanish channels the last couple of days? I have to admit to watching even though I only catch every other word. It's sad that this is how I'm filling the baseball void for the next couple of weeks.
When all else fails, there's always delusion. - Conan O'Brien

by mtex on Feb 7, 2007 12:25 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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