BP's Kahrl on Ranger offseason

by Lucas on Feb 7, 2007 3:52 PM CST

It's firewalled, so only a synopsis:

Gagne: sensible
Lofton over Matthews: also sensible
Padilla signing: solid
McCarthy trade: not fond of it (too homer-prone)
Sosa and Jamey Wright: ugh
Quiroz and Chen: sure, why not
Outfield production: maybe not so bad
Little Cat: not a high impact bat
Blalock: needs to step up or Texas will have weak offense

summary: "weird, disjoined sort of winter... It won't take too many gambles failing to put this club decisively in the basement."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5853

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He/she says

that Danks has considerably more upside. Not sure how I feel about that, but I have settled squarely into disliking that trade and feeling like it was a shortsighted mistake. Hope it's not.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 3:55 PM CST reply actions

Danks vs. McCarthy

I find it odd that so many people were very high on McCarthy's upside before he became a Ranger, and he was considered by most to be a better prospect than Danks. Maybe it's just my perception, but it seems now that Danks suddenly has more upside somehow than he did last summer. I don't get it.

by t ball on Feb 7, 2007 3:59 PM CST up reply actions

I think you're right

that Danks' status is higher than it was during the summer. I'm not sure why. I also agree with your first phrase, and I'm not sure why on that one either. My only guess is that psychologically people tend to discount the season before the current one once the current one ends. So during the summer McCarthy's strong 2005 held a lot more sway than it does now, for whatever reason.

As far as my personal opinion, I've just never been a gigantic McCarthy guy, and something about Danks gives me a better feeling. Plus we gave up a high end arm in Masset and a more prominent third player than the second we got. Hopefully our pro scouts know what they're doing.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 4:13 PM CST up reply actions

Higher Upside

Danks' upside is considered higher because he is no longer in the Texas system.

It seems that analyst seem to follow the trends of the past and don't do any in-depth research anymore. Since Texas hasn't produce a solid starter since Kevin Brown, there is no reason to think anyone in the system will be solid either. I think that is faulty logic, but none the less, it is out.

Another blanket statement is how TBIA is a launching pad. That comment is made without any consideration for the poor pitchers that have been with Texas or the outstanding hitters in the past. So no matter whom pitches at TBIA, there numbers will be bad and no matter whom hits at TBIA, there power numbers will be good. Again, faulty logic. Dayn Perry is one of the worst...I just had to say that....again.

Proud Supporter of the Texas Rangers since 1973

by T Coleman on Feb 7, 2007 5:50 PM CST up reply actions

Exactly....

..that is my take on it as well. It seemed like before McCarthy was acquired by Texas, he was consided an excellent prospect. Since becoming a Ranger, however, he is thought of more as #3 at best. I don't get it.

by bflood36 on Feb 8, 2007 9:23 AM CST up reply actions

Jim Callis said

"In actuality, McCarthy and Danks are very similar. They both throw two-seam and four-seam fastballs and top out at 93-94 mph, they both have good curveballs and they both have made a lot of progress with changeups. McCarthy has a slightly better curve, while Danks has a slightly better changeup. Their command and control are about the same.

"There seems to be a perception that McCarthy is a can't-miss guy, perhaps fueled by his spectacular minor league numbers (37-21, 3.38, 536-92 K-BB ratio in 471 IP). But his stuff isn't overwhelming and he has been inconsistent in the majors, as is the case with most young pitchers. I think they're both No. 3 starters. If I had my pick, I'd take Danks because he's two years younger (21 vs. 23) and he's lefthanded."

by bronco28 on Feb 9, 2007 5:12 AM CST up reply actions

Re the homer-proneness

Chicago's field has been more homer-friendly than The Ballpark for the past few years. So coming to Arlington shouldn't be any more of a problem in that regard.

by Lucas on Feb 7, 2007 4:06 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah I agree

and Danks is pretty homer prone himself, so I'm not sure that that's an issue really.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 4:09 PM CST up reply actions

Also

McCarthy's been very tough on lefties during his major-league career. Right-handed power hitters don't have near the advantage that lefties do in this park.

I don't get the "Danks has a ton more upside than McCarthy" argument either. Most every source I've seen has ranked McCarthy the better prospect (when they were both still prospects) and his minor-league numbers are far superior. It's not like he was older for his leagues than Danks, either- they were about the same age at each level.

by RCCook on Feb 7, 2007 4:28 PM CST up reply actions

Using BA

McCarthy:

2003 - not ranked in CWS top 30
2004 - #11 in CWS (ranked 20th organization), not top 100
2005 - #3 in CWS (12th), #49

Danks:

2004 - #2 in Tex (ranked 16th), #80 on top 100
2005 - #2 in Tex (16th), #59
2006 - #2 in Tex (16th), *#59
2007 - #1 in Tex, most likely around 50 judging from the individual top 50's

McCarthy's numbers were better, but I'm not quite sure that you could conclude that he was more highly regarded.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 5:56 PM CST up reply actions

Danks has been over-rated from Day One

He walks too many, gives up too many HR's (more than the "HR-prone" McCarthy), his ERA is too high, his won-loss record is nothing to write home about.
I expect he'll be a decent major league pitcher, but far from a STAR.....I wish him the best, but ya know what.....McCarthy is a Ranger and I'll be rooting a helluva lot more for him!

by tklawless on Feb 7, 2007 6:15 PM CST up reply actions

Overrated

me gut tells me they are both overrated (or make that all three if you include Masset).

Neither Danks nor McCarthy have ever been thought of as a potential number one (at least not outside of ranger fandom).

I think McCarthy's stock fell more than Danks' stock rising as a result of 2006.

At the end of the day, both teams will be lucky if they have a number 3 pitcher out of the deal.

Hopefully ours will come a year earlier as a reward for taking the risk.

by Brandon Wilson on Feb 7, 2007 6:51 PM CST up reply actions

While you're usually

lucky to get a #3, Danks figures to be at least a #3 in terms of his stuff and skills. I think that McCarthy is a perfect projection as a #3. The fact that I think Danks has the ability to be a #2 potentially is part of why I'm not terribly comfortable. The other is that I actually think the downside on McCarthy may be greater than Danks', even though I'd be in the minority in that opinion.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 8:08 PM CST up reply actions

i feel the same way

about the downside thing. if nothing else, the handedness leads me to believe that.

by ab03 on Feb 7, 2007 10:15 PM CST up reply actions

If Chicago is worse than TBIA

it's only b/c the Rangers have that high-tech lighting system in the outfield that tells the hitters what pitch is coming...or so says Mark Buerhle.

When all else fails, there's always delusion. - Conan O'Brien

by mtex on Feb 7, 2007 4:17 PM CST up reply actions

btw

I think its she.

by ab03 on Feb 7, 2007 4:57 PM CST up reply actions

It is now

by LoneStarBallUser on Feb 7, 2007 5:03 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah

...I didn't say he/she because I wasn't sure, if you know what I mean. Wandering across that info was sort of a Crying Game experience for me.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 5:38 PM CST up reply actions

well

either way, lets just say "she" and leave it at that. Although, apparently she doesn't care and seems pretty cool with the whole thing

by ab03 on Feb 7, 2007 7:15 PM CST up reply actions

I like

he/she, but thanks for the advice.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2007 8:06 PM CST up reply actions

The McCarthyism trade...

is far too wait and see for me to hate it or like it.

by ghostofErikThompson on Feb 7, 2007 4:28 PM CST reply actions

One other thing

Christina totally forgot to include GMJ in the Angels' analysis. Didn't list him as one of their off-season moves, didn't mention what she thought of the signing. Weird.

by RCCook on Feb 7, 2007 4:29 PM CST reply actions

Danks all of the sudden hash a higher

upside? Boy, Ranger fans REALLY are pessimists. Nowhere (in the recent past) was McCarthy not a better prospect than Danks, but now since the trade Danks is the second coming of Sandy Koufax. Most considered Danks a #3, possibly a #2, but not an Ace. Now he's a guaranteed #1.

McCarthy's minor league stats are MUCH better than Danks. PERIOD! No comparison really. More KO's per 9, less walks per 9, less HR allowed per 9, more wins, less losses (that still counts doesn't it?) etc., etc. And he has 150 innings of MAJOR LEAGUE experience! When will Danks 151st inning come? 2010?

My guess is this shit will keep up 'til McCarthy wins his 15th or 16th game this season (early Sept?). McCarthy will have 30 more big league wins before Danks even makes a big league START!

by tklawless on Feb 7, 2007 4:39 PM CST reply actions

x

Cat is a solid bat and the Mccarthey trade was a good one...

Kevin Durant is a man child....

by miles on Feb 7, 2007 4:54 PM CST reply actions

Unless

I have a very wrong impression, Chris doesn't consider any bat "a bat" unless it's a power bat. Rather than complain about her take, maybe just keep the source in mind. Is usuall pretty objective, within the 'givens'.

"When you're riding in a time machine way far into the future, don't stick your elbow out the window, or it'll turn into a fossil."

by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2007 5:00 PM CST reply actions