Here's what I don't get about the Sosa situation

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 12, 2007 10:59 AM CDT in News Comment 81 comments

Okay.

Supposedly, one of the big motivations for signing Sammy Sosa was that the Rangers needed a legitimate righty bat in the #5 spot so Mark Teixeira could have "protection."

Now, I'm not a big believer in the notion of "protection." I don't think a hitter is going to do better overall if he has a strong hitter in behind him, versus a weak hitter.

However, the Rangers apparently think this is important. And it was why the Rangers needed Sosa, rather than, say, Jason Botts in the lineup...because teams wouldn't respect Botts, and he wouldn't give Teixeira any protection.

Now...here's the problem...

Teams still aren't pitching to Teixeira.

You can see the pitch data here. So far (and admittedly, there are some sample size issues, given that we are 9 games into the season), 52% of the pitches to Teixeira this year have been strikes. Last year, when Teixeira was "protected" by the likes of Phil Nevin and the one-armed Hank Blalock, he saw strikes on 58% of pitches. It has been 60% over the course of his career.

Just as telling, to me, is that 35% of those strikes have been called strikes, compared to 29% last year, and 25% over the course of his career. If Teixeira is getting more called strikes right now, but fewer strikes overall, that seems to suggest that pitchers are throwing more borderline pitches, because they aren't worried about being punished if they walk him.

(Just as a point of reference, 67% of the pitches Michael Young has seen this year have been strikes, and 66% of the pitches Hank Blalock has seen this year have been strikes).

And before someone tells me to get my nose out of the statbook and watch the freaking games, this dovetails with what I've observed during the games...pitchers aren't giving Mark Teixeira anything to hit.

So...if Sosa has been brought in to provide Teixeira with protection and give him better pitches to hit, that plan has been a miserable failure. Teixeira, so far, over this admittedly relatively short stretch, is getting fewer pitches to hit than he has in any other season of his career.

Sosa is providing less "protection" to Teixeira than Phil Nevin, the one-armed Blalock, et al provided to Teixeira last year. And Sosa has looked, and performed, terribly, so pitchers aren't being punished for pitching around Teixeira.

Which means that Teixeira has a .400 OBP right now and is 4th in the American League in walks, but has only 4 runs scored on the season. If you want to play the "on pace" game, Teixeira is "on pace" to score 72 runs on the season.

Which leads me to my next point.

I keep hearing that Sosa needs 100-150 plate appearances to get in his groove, that Frank Thomas sucked last year for the first six weeks then started tearing things up, that the Rangers aren't expecting Sosa to really do much the first few weeks.

Okay. Fine. I think the Thomas comparison is a fallacious one, since Thomas, unlike Sosa, had hit the previous few seasons when he was healthy, he just hadn't stayed healthy.

But whatever.

Here's what I don't get.

Why in the hell does Sosa have to get his groove back while hitting 5th in the majors?

Why isn't he getting adjusted and comfortable down in AAA, while someone who might actually contribute to the offense is in the majors in the meantime?

Is Sosa too good to go to AAA? Are the Rangers really afraid that, if they wanted him to go to Oklahoma to get the rust off, that some other team would snatch him up and plug him in their lineup?

And if you don't want to send him to AAA, if for whatever reason, that isn't a viable option...

Then why is he hitting 5th? Why not stash him in the 7th or 8th slot, and let him provide "protection" for Brad Wilkerson or Nelson Cruz or Gerald Laird until he either figures out how to catch up to 89 mph fastballs (like the one he was behind on yesterday) or the team gives him up as a lost cause?

I just don't get it.

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please JD...

Please read this post.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting to see the data

though watching the games, it's blatantly obvious teams have no fear of Sosa. The Angels weren't even subtle about it either.

buffering....

by SteveP on Apr 12, 2007 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Big Hurt

The other difference between Frank and Sammy is that Frank draws walks even when he's not hitting. I don't have the time right now to look it up, but I bet Frank was getting on base even during his slow start.

by Jamey Newberg on Apr 12, 2007 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

you're right

even when he was hitting under .200 he was getting on base at a decent clip.

Signature here

by t ball on Apr 12, 2007 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Big Hurt

He wasn't getting much to hit last year early on either, not unlike Teixeira.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought the same thing

But maybe not. Last year Thomas posted this:
April: 190/264/405/669
May: 268/436/535/971

The 264 OBP was horrendous, but then he got into a nice groove in May.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on Apr 12, 2007 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I honestly

have no idea why he has to stay hitting 5th.

Then again, I have no idea why the .250 OBP Young has to hit third or Catalanotto needs to be at the top of the lineup. Or why we don't see more of Chris Stewart while Gerald Laird is sucking teat, both hitting and calling of games.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 11:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

well

Somebody has to hit at the top of the lineup. It's not like we can hit Kinsler 1-8 and everybody else 9th. There is some rationale for Cat and MY hitting where they are base on consistent recent performances (not to mention that Young has been very unlucky so far this year), but none that I can see for Sosa where he is.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I certainly have no idea why Kinsler isn't a top 5

hitter in the lineup. I could argue where in that top 5, but since in my mind, our real problem is the 2-3 hitters OBPs of .290 and .250, I really think that Kinsler should be in the 2 or 3 hole.

This doesn't mean I think Sosa should stay 5. Personally, I'd move the Sosa/Wilkerson platoon to 8 and move Laird to 9.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we disagree

I just would say that it is very likely that Young will rebound to historical levels in the near term, and Cat likely will, too.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kinsler

we certainly can't have him hitting higher in the lineup. We need to "create opportunities" at the bottom of the lineup, not have someone like Sosa wasting those valuable at bats. How can he get his groove back if he's getting fewer at bats?

(note saturation with sarcasm from bitter Sosa-hater).

Signature here

by t ball on Apr 12, 2007 11:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Fantastic Analysis

I think, though, that it proves "protection" does exist. Sosa is almost sure out, and look what happens to the pitches Teixeira gets.

And I'm with you 100 percent on the Sosa to AAA thing. I've been saying it for a long time. You can't expect an old player who was out of the game for a year to come back in one spring training. Hell, look what happens when GOOD players get injured. Even they get rehab assignments.

If Sosa's serious about a comeback, he'll go to AAA. And if he wants to go to someone else's AAA team, that's just fine with me.

by Dustin on Apr 12, 2007 11:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

a 9-game sample size

Does it really "prove" anything?

I like camo because it makes you blend in. But when you're not in the woods, it does the opposite. Its like, hey, there's an asshole.

by Brian Thomas on Apr 12, 2007 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

In this case I think it does

It's a fairly significant stretch of the season, and we can clearly see that Sosa sucks (not just by looking at data but by watching his film). While this is going on, Teixeira gets nothing to hit.

If Sosa puts together three good games where he hits the ball with authority, I don't think it would take long for Tex to get pitches to hit.

No, it's not enough data to PROVE anything scientifically, but we can still observe it. Just put yourself in a pitchers' shoes. Would Sosa's presence (or lack thereof) change the way you approach Teixeira? Especially if there are two outs and nobody's on base. Why take any chances at all with Tex when you can pitch to a guy who shouldn't even be playing baseball? You put Tex on. If he gets himself out, even better, because then you start the next innning with Sosa leading off.

by Dustin on Apr 12, 2007 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We have a loser

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

With all due respect

You guys are nuts.

If I were hitting behind Babe Ruth, you don't think that would change the pitcher's approach? Provided it's the 1920's and I have managed to travel back in time to do this, I don't see how you could possibly believe it wouldn't have an effect.

Sosa is THAT bad. Pitching to him is a no-risk proposition.

by Dustin on Apr 12, 2007 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitting behind Ruth

I don't know. Ruth had some guy named Gehrig hitting behind him and still managed to draw 140+ walks a year. As Cahill has pointed out a few times, the same goes for Ortiz and Manny now. Good hitters get "pitched around" no matter who is hitting behind them.

Milk, milk, lemonade, around the corner fudge is made.

by Chris Martin on Apr 12, 2007 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

In the Rangers case

Hypothetically:

You're some 28 year old, average major league pitcher facing Mark Teixeira with two outs in tie game. The bases are open, and Sammy Sosa's on deck.

What do you do?

Now imagine you're the same pitcher with in the same situation, only a red hot Hank Blalock is standing on deck.

Do you do the same thing? Of course not. In the first instance, Tex gets NOTHING to hit under any circumstances. Why would he? The chance that Sosa will make the third out is pretty damn good.

Now if Blalock is the next hitter and he's on fire, things become a little more complicated for the pitcher. He has to get one of them out. Might as well pitch to Teixeira because if you walk him, here comes a hot Blalock with a guy on.

It's a situational thing. Putting a great hitter behind another one doesn't mean the first guy is going to get good pitches all the time. I realize that. How he's pitched to depends on a lot of things, but putting a guy like Sosa behind him makes it a no-brainer.

That man should not be hitting fifth. He shouldn't even be hitting ninth. He shouldn't be on the 25-man roster at all. The only place for Sammy Sosa is AAA. Maybe there he can get back into competition shape, and maybe not. The fact that he's in the Major Leagues right now batting in the middle of the order is embarrassing for the franchise.

by Dustin on Apr 12, 2007 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

9 games may be meaningful

for seeing if people are pitching around Teix. But that is because the opposing team doesn't know what to expect from Sosa, and does from Teixeira. Therefore, err on the side of Sosa.

First, I fail to see how this hurts the Rangers. It isn't like Teixeira is Bonds or Pujols up there getting home runs when pitchers actually do pitch to him. He has 8 hits, all singles. He's off to a slow start like everyone else. So getting a few free walks thrown in there because Sosa is behind him, well, I'll take it.

Secondly, while 9 games may be significant to see if people are pitching to or around Teixeira, it isn't enough to judge Sosa. So for now, the other team is assuming he is an easy out, so we get a better chance at a walk every time around.

One could argue that this is actually a decent strategy for a team with a notorious recent history with getting on base..

Note: the reason pitching around can be significant and Sosa's ability is not is because the pitching around is a conscious strategy - as such, it is a low variance behavior (they either do it or not). Sosa's skill (as with anyone's...) is a high variance behavior. As such, you need about two or three weeks of games to even get a decent approximation of skill level.

by JBImaknee on Apr 12, 2007 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow I have a headache

very interesting but too much factual information. I usually just like to spew misguied opinions and bias judgements.

by cgolden on Apr 12, 2007 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't disagree with what you are saying

The problem, though, is that this is the exact opposite of what the Rangers were supposedly trying to achieve with Sosa hitting behind Teixeira.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 12, 2007 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We have a winner

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but what's the upside?

is it any better than Botts's?

buffering....

by SteveP on Apr 12, 2007 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

I'm not offering this as proof.

I'm showing what the data reflects has happened so far, which corresponds with what my observations have been thusfar.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 12, 2007 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oops

You were talking about "proof" of protection, in general.

Nevermind.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 12, 2007 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts exactly

The Rangers have created a gigantic hole in the lineup by putting Sosa in the 5th spot. I think Kinsler would be much better there, and you'd still get a L/R/L/R/L combo in the order from 2-6 against right-handed pitching. Plus, the 5th spot is actually the second most likely spot in the order to lead off an inning, so having Kinsler there would be a lot better than Sosa.

by chrispi on Apr 12, 2007 11:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

At the moment

this lineup has more holes than swiss cheese, starting with the inability of our 2 and 3 hitters to actually reach base.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since we're talking about the moment.

Cat has a .984 OPS over the past week. Young has an .856 OPS. It looks like they're moving back up to career norm, which makes them ideal to hit in the spots they're in. You take out the Anaheim series, and they're playing pretty well.

In that same stretch, Sosa's OPS is a whopping .429 OPS.

by Athos on Apr 12, 2007 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't get it either

and they better do something, or this club will stay a .500 club. I think it's about marketing, they want a sosa(who is supposed to hit) as a draw, a sosa in the 8th or 9th slot, is a devalued Sosa, and the Paying fans would see that.

I am pretty cynical when it comes to Ranger's Management, I wonder why?

by SanDiegoKev on Apr 12, 2007 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

I was at the home opener, and me and some other fans booed Sosa. I was also at the Sunday night game, and a guy who seemed to be a pretty big fan (he's friends with Kinsler's agent) and his friend kept talking about how Sosa didn't deserve a spot on the team. Maybe the casual fan likes Sosa on the team, but not many of the people with season tickets.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on Apr 12, 2007 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but to sell 40,000 or so tickets

you have to get a lot of people who don't know as much about baseball to come. Those folks want to see famous players.

Signature here

by t ball on Apr 12, 2007 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you win

they will come.

buffering....

by SteveP on Apr 12, 2007 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess the point is,

if Sosa continues to not hit as the clean-up hitter, winning becomes more scarce.

by SanDiegoKev on Apr 12, 2007 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I mean in the 5th slot

not clean-up, that's next.

by SanDiegoKev on Apr 12, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not how the Rangers roll

They want us to come first and THEN they will try to win.

Milk, milk, lemonade, around the corner fudge is made.

by Chris Martin on Apr 12, 2007 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point

by cgolden on Apr 12, 2007 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not that cynical

I'm sure there are people who believe that Hicks expects fans to come out before he'll even try to build a winner, but I don't see it. Hicks may not have the best ideas how to do it, but he does want to win.

Signature here

by t ball on Apr 12, 2007 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Being cynical

Hey, nobody enjoys being cynical more than me but in this case you don't have to be cynical. Tom Hicks has actually said that very thing on more than one occasion.

Milk, milk, lemonade, around the corner fudge is made.

by Chris Martin on Apr 12, 2007 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two weeks

Teams should never make any major decisions about what to do with guys in the first two weeks of the year. It just isn't enough data points. Ideally, one should probably wait for a month to see how players will hit - but you have to wage how much the decision is hurting the team in the short term. (In the Sosa case, I doubt his failure to hit (him in particular vs the other 5 guys who can't hit either) has lost us any games... yet. The batting jinx is only now slowly being lifted)

The easiest thing to do with statistics is to use them before they are ready. In fact, this organization has a bad history of giving up on guys before they should have because of a statistically irrelevant number of data points. Just because you "expected it" doesn't make it statistically valid any faster.

by JBImaknee on Apr 12, 2007 11:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not entirely true, I don't think....

That's not entirely true, is it? If the Rangers were to put me in the #5 hole, it wouldn't take a months worth of games to confirm the expectation that I, in fact, couldn't hit a major league fastball (or probably a decent middle school fastball) to save my life.

There are a few possibilities here which are viable explanations for the data so far:

Sosa is still a productive major league hitter who is in the middle of some statistically insignificant funk.
Sosa can still be a productive major league hitter once he gets his timing or mechanics or mojo back in the groove after taking off a year.
Sosa will never be a productive major league hitter again, and while he may improve slightly on his performance so far, pretty much what you see is what you get.

Despite the bickering here, all three solutions are probably reasonable. Given that, there's absolutely no reason why he is not in AAA till the Rangers figure out which of those three is the truth. In no way would that be over reacting to the stats. In fact, had the Rangers said all along that they were going to put Sammy in AAA for 4 to 6 weeks to make sure he made it back, I would have been all for the signing. If in those 4-6 weeks he proves he's a more productive hitter than Botts, I'd have no trouble with Sosa getting at bats ahead of Botts.

BTW, this is different from, say, Mark Teixeira starting out in a slump. You can pose those same three solutions (taking out the "taking off a year" bit). The difference is, you have some expectation that #1 is most likely to be the truth, #2 is possible but less likely, and #3 is hardly likely at all. From that, you should conclude that it makes sense to leave him where he is and stop worrying about it.

Interpreting small sample size statistics is a black art, and it's easy to get wrong (as you point out the Rangers are very good at doing), but it's not impossible.

by collin on Apr 12, 2007 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Am I being dense?

I followed the link to the pitch data, but I'm not seeing the data in the tables on Mark Teixeir's baseball-reference.com main page. Can someone give me very specific directions to these data?

People rarely live up to their baby pictures.

by rooster on Apr 12, 2007 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sure

On Teixeira's B-R page, scroll down to "Pitch Data Summary."

Move the cursor over "Hide or Show", and click.

It will bring it up.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 12, 2007 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cool. Thanks.

I was looking right at it, just didn't read the "show or hide" thing.

Great data, but I think they should include 0-2 and 1-2 percentages for batters rather than just for pitchers.

I wonder if the pitch data are available for download. It would be fun to see the percentage of strikes before and after the Carlos Lee trade.

People rarely live up to their baby pictures.

by rooster on Apr 12, 2007 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking last night, as I hoped to see Cruz

pinch hit in the 9th, that I would feel better about last night's lineup if it were the following:
Lofton
Cat
Young
Tex
Blalock
Kinsler
Cruz
Sosa (or Wilkerson)
Laird

People rarely live up to their baby pictures.

by rooster on Apr 12, 2007 11:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Sosa sucks.....

but clearly people paid to make these calls think he's worth the time. I think it's too soon for me to say they are wrong (even thought I think they are).

by bdavison94 on Apr 12, 2007 12:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Should read.....

"even though"

Damn I have to proof better.

by bdavison94 on Apr 12, 2007 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

as i was saying in the other thread

do you guys really see teixeira getting pitched around?

last night in his last at bat he took two clear strikes, then swung and missed at a ball. what does sosa have to do with that?

maybe he isnt seeing quite as many strikes, but from watching all the at bats i see plenty of pitches tex can hit and simply isnt. well either that or he hits singles on them.

sosa is probably a contributing factor, but i think the majority of tex's struggles are just him struggling.

that said, sosa needs to get out of the 5 spot right now, and start losing more starts to cruz.

by DSheppard on Apr 12, 2007 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Victor Rojas on the Tex/Sosa situation

from his 'Spoils' MLB.com blog ...

Which leads me to the middle of the order...I'm sure Mark Teixeira would love to see a lot more pitches per at-bat than he's actually seeing, but that's not going to happen until Slammin' steps up behind him. Slammin' is 0-fer since his jack on Saturday night, but I will admit in watching him that he's not missing pitches by much. This isn't the same guy that looked awful with the Orioles two years ago...he's on it, just not squaring it up.
Back to Tex for a moment...I like the guy a lot and I think he's one of the premiere players in the game (not just 1b), but there comes a time that patience has to come into play. I don't recall watching Tex swing at as many off-speed pitches as I have over the last couple of games. No extra base-hits to start the year, over-shifting by everyone and no protection can lead to some tense moments. But the bottom line is if they're not going to pitch to you, then take the walk. It only helps to have men on base and try to disrupt things and force the issue with whomever is in the 5 or 6 hole. Tex is too good a hitter to be expanding his zone like he has been...but as usual, you'll be able to chalk him up to the typical type of numbers...35+ jacks and 100+ RBI.

Rangers Farm Probables

by shroomer on Apr 12, 2007 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Tex

Given his history of slow starts, I'm not sure I'm going to be comfortable giving him the mega-contract he and Boras are going to look for. This is particularly the case if he has a first half like he did last year.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OMG

I can't believe it...
That's it...
The entire Sosa experiment is a win/win for the Rangers.
If Sosa hits, he'll bring in big crowds and help the Rangers push for the playoffs.
If Sosa fails, the lack of protection brings down the price for Teixeira.
It was so obvious...
right in front of us all the time.

(Read the signature of the guy above... I think I've caught it.)

by Oracle Galvez on Apr 12, 2007 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

Tex is pushing himself b/c he knows Sosa is behind him and an automatic out. Therefore he's trying to hard to make something happen instead of working the pitcher and taking alot of walks. He might also be trying to hard just to avoid his inevitable slow start. I remember him talking about working to avoid that on the Galloway show in spring training.

Then agian maybe it's too early to tell anything.

by cgolden on Apr 12, 2007 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teixeira's pitches per PA

He's at 4.10 right now. That would have been 10th in the A.L. last season.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 12, 2007 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Confidence

I would guess that Wash's reasoning is that it help's Sosa's fragile ego to hit in the fifth while trying to figure things out again. Of course that can't continue for long, and surely he'll get bumped down and then eventually out if he still can't figure it out. But, figuring it out with a bruised baby ego in the 7 hole is going to be tough for Slammy; though, I hope someone slips him the corked bat soon.

by CJohnson on Apr 12, 2007 12:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Lets just settle this argument and all agree

That sosa sucks "protecting" someone. Sosa sucks in the 5 hole, sosa sucks in the 8 hole, sosa sucks at hitting a baseball period.

I was a fan in spring, now I am not. I dont think anybody is. Get him outta here. Put in Matt Kata or Jason Botts.

by TexGoesYard on Apr 12, 2007 1:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

A-men!

We want Botts!!!

by SanDiegoKev on Apr 12, 2007 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

botts

his .579 OPS in AAA is giving sosa a run for his money....

of course i would still rather have botts than sosa given what ive seen of sosa, but botts hasnt exactly forced his way up in the first couple weeks here.

by DSheppard on Apr 12, 2007 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Victor Diaz

then. The point is, there are a lot more younger, more talented candidates that offer much more potential.

by FirebatM3 on Apr 12, 2007 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Protection.

I'm not setting out to prove or disprove the protection idea, but I think there are some interesting cases to look at. Consider Oritz/Manny.

Recently Ortiz has had fewer strikes thrown to him. Strike percentages for him during 2003-2006 (his Boston years) are 60%, 59%, 57%, and 55%. The percentage of ABs that get to a count of either 3-0 or 2-0 has risen: 22%, 25%, 29%, and 31%. This trend is occurring despite having Manny-f**ing-Ramirez hit in the slot after him, whose OPS+ was 160, 152, 158, and 168 while Ortiz's OPS+ was 144, 145, 161, and 164.

Folks didn't stop pitching to Ortiz in order to pitch to Manny. They just stopped pitching to Ortiz, and, BTW, they don't pitch to Manny very much either, who often sees 57-59% strikes and >25% 3-0 or 2-0 counts.

I would argue it's more important for the guys ahead of Ortiz/Manny to get on base than it is to have a massively good hitter behind them, but I would still consider the OBP of hitters #1-2 a secondary consideration. The most important reason, by far, that a pitcher will not pitch to a hitter is that the hitter hits the s** out of the ball.

People rarely live up to their baby pictures.

by rooster on Apr 12, 2007 1:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Shhh

Use your indoor voice.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on Apr 12, 2007 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, sorry.

I didn't realize using multiple asterisks would cause the text to be bolded.

People rarely live up to their baby pictures.

by rooster on Apr 12, 2007 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Give me your small sample sizes

Just some observations...

First, Brad Wilkerson would be very happy to see that the conversation has turned away from him, for the moment, over to Sammy Sosa. :)

Second, after Saturday's game and the home run, the noise on Sammy was pretty low (ask Wilkerson). The 0-13 in three games since then seems to have enraged the masses.

Third, everyone is loving Kinsler and his 4 home runs (put Kinsler #5 seems to be a common theme). Had Kinsler not gone 4-4 the other night he would be hitting .190. Or, even after his good start, if he goes 0-13 against SEA, he will be .211/.286/.553 (and the hit Kinsler 2nd or 3rd or 5th talk will die down a little).

Fourth, there are numerous suggestions to cut Sosa, but not one person aiming blam at Teixeira. In fact, Teixeira's poor start is Sosa's fault, too. Amazing. Tex has more strikeouts than Sosa, is hitting worse than Sosa with runners in scoring position, and has no power (zero extra base hits). Is that really good enough for a cleanup hitter?

Fifth, forget those last two points and just realize you can make small samples say just about anything you want.

by Brandon Wilson on Apr 12, 2007 2:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

kinsler

true but uh, kinsler was hitting line drives all over the place when he had his bad batting average.

theres a big diference between having line drives caught and popping up a 100 times in a row.

by DSheppard on Apr 12, 2007 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ya

he has been ripping balls hes just had bad luck that they were right at fielders. Plus he leads the team in homers (twice what anyone else has) with just 25 at bats. I know its a small sample size but when someone is batting like that you cant have them in the 9th hole night after night.

by dubman on Apr 12, 2007 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not really the point

the point is a lot of people are knee jerking, as usual at this time of year, based on the performances in 3 or 4 games...

The stats Adam presented are interesting (especially since they support his observation), but I just don't think they are anywhere close to statistically significant. If they are, then I'd say they make just as good a case for getting Tex out of the clean up spot as they do for getting rid of Sammy.

Th other point is one good game at this time of year will make all of those stats look completely different.

by Brandon Wilson on Apr 12, 2007 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

The Kinsler needs to hit fifth not ninth talk started before spring training when Washington said he'd like to hit him ninth. So don't think that the only reason you're hearing that is that is because of what he's hitting. That's just more support for the already formed opinion.

by Brett Perryman on Apr 12, 2007 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

by some, but

not by most people on this board... most people have jumped on the bandwagon after the regular season homeruns.

I love Ian Kinsler. I hope a memory that my son and I (and a lot of you) can share is that of being in the ballpark the day Hall of Famer Ian Kinsler got his first big league hit against Curt Schilling on opening day 2006.

Having said that let's all remember that Brian frickin' Roberts hit 8 homers one April. That didn't make him a 3-4 or 5 hitter. I think Kinsler is a lot more likely to be a #2 hitter on this team than a #3 or #5 hitter.

Frankly, we need someone that can get on base at a .370 clip or better in the #2 hole a lot more than we need a power/clutch hitter in #5 hole. I think Adam correctly made the case the other day that this team's problems last year (and so far this year for that matter) is baserunners, not clutch hitting from the #5 spot.

by Brandon Wilson on Apr 12, 2007 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at the stat predictions I made for Kinsler

in case you think I'm just a late jump on the bandwagon.

I think he needs to be near the top of the order for sure. Based on how good I think he is, and how weak the rest of our order is.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

no doubt you were one of the most optimistic (as the comments from the projection thread indicate)

by Brandon Wilson on Apr 12, 2007 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

By most

Most people here (myself included) are probably a little too high on Kinsler and have been saying hitting him 9th is a mistake for quite some time. To that end check out his projections.

Milk, milk, lemonade, around the corner fudge is made.

by Chris Martin on Apr 12, 2007 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

your right

I misjudged the majority... still I don't think this team is very good if Ian Kinsler is one the three best in RBIs. Maybe that's what everyone is saying...

by Brandon Wilson on Apr 12, 2007 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that's...

what anyone is saying. Kinsler's RBI's would have very little to do with him, except to the extent of homeruns, and very much to do with other people in the lineup.

by benmor78 on Apr 12, 2007 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

By the way Ben

Do you have Kinsler's composite projection? I am curious what that is.

Milk, milk, lemonade, around the corner fudge is made.

by Chris Martin on Apr 12, 2007 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ben emailed the spreadsheet to me...

...before Easter...

I just keep forgetting to put it up.

I'll do it tonight.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 12, 2007 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about

Move Blalock 5th and SOsa 6th they might pitch to Tex more.

by myoungfan11 on Apr 12, 2007 2:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

or

move Kinsler to 5th blalock to 6th and sosa to AAA

by dubman on Apr 12, 2007 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lineup:

Needs to be changed to:

Lofton
Catalanotto
Young
Teixeira
Kinsler
Blalock
Cruz
Wilkerson/Sosa
Laird

or unconventionally:

Lofton
Young
Kinsler
Teixeira
Blalock
Cruz
Catalanotto
Wilkerson/Sosa
Laird

by slimshadty12 on Apr 12, 2007 2:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Either of those look good

to me. I'm not sure either will impact Teixeira's output dramatically, but you do get the better hitters more PAs.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 2:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sigh

Shut the fuck up, Adam.

You're absurd. Completely, fucking, absurd.

And insane.

Dont be discouraged, global warming enthusiasts

by Sharky on Apr 12, 2007 4:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Care to back up your opinion?

Cheney lurking in the bushes during Bush speech

by chief on Apr 12, 2007 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sharky Knows

Insanity.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs