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On the Carlos Lee trade

Tim MacMahon, apparently bored with making asinine comments about Disneyland and the age of the Rangers g.m., has an actual baseball post up on the DMN blog this afternoon, talking about the success of former Rangers Carlos Lee and Francisco Cordero.  One of the comments suggests that Lee and Cordero no longer being here supports the claim that Jon Daniels is "in over his head" as the Rangers g.m.

What I don't get, though, is why anyone would be carping about this deal...

The Rangers got the best hitter available at the deadline last year, a guy who filled a big need for the Rangers and who performed while he was here (offensively, anyway).

And what did they give up?

  1.  A relatively expensive, no-longer-young failed closer who had been relegated to a setup role, wasn't pitching well at TBIA and was getting booed by the home crowd every time he came in
  2.  A struggling outfielder who was starting to get expensive through arbitration
  3.  A busted former prospect with no future in the organization
So why, exactly, are people complaining?  The complaints appear to fall under a few sub-categories:

The Rangers had no chance of winning anything, so they shouldn't have made the trade

That's false.  The Rangers, at the time the deal was made, were at .500 on the season, were 2 games back of Oakland and a game and a half back of Anaheim, and had been the best team in the division in terms of run differential.  There were no serious injuries that would result in an expected regression, and Adam Eaton was coming back from injury.

The division was very winnable when the Rangers made this move.

The Rangers should have tried harder to re-sign Carlos Lee

Again, nonsense.  The Rangers, by all indications, made this deal knowing it was a rental of Lee.  He had rejected a 4 year, $48 million contract extension from the Brewers, which was likely more than the Rangers would have offered him, given that he's a very good, but not great, bat with conditioning issues entering his decline years.

The 6 year, $100 million contract the Astros gave him was ludicrous, and the Rangers should not have matched it.  

And don't start with the "He would have been better than Whiffy out there" crap.  If we are functioning without a budget, then sure, the amount of the contract is irrelevant.  If we are assuming that we are working under a finite budget of under $100 million, there's no way you give $100 million over six years to a guy with Lee's skill set and age.  

Lee's off to a great start.  He's gone to a weaker league, and is taking advantage of the nice hitting environment at the Juice Box (while posting just a 769 road OPS).  But the idea that the Rangers are stupid for letting Lee go is, well, stupid.

The Rangers gave up the National League save leader

Yep.  They did.  And good for Francisco Cordero...he got his career back on track somewhere else.

But how anyone who has paid attention to the Rangers can carp about them letting Cordero go last year is beyond me.  

He was awful early in the season, and lost the closer's job.  He did better in a setup role, but continued to struggle when pitching in Texas.  He was getting booed every time he came out, and had a 6.56 ERA at TBIA.  

So the Rangers cashed him in and got value for him, rather than keep him around and watch his value continue to diminish as he struggled in a setup role in Texas.

Maybe I'm wrong...but watching Cordero pitch in TBIA last year, I got the sense that it had gotten in his head.  Much like Brad Lidge needs to start anew somewhere else, Cordero needed to start anew somewhere else.  

So the hoo-hawing from certain parts notwithstanding, I don't think you can complain about Cordero being dealt.

If the trade isn't made, the Rangers have Kevin Mench playing lousy baseball in the outfield instead of Nelson Cruz, they've got Francisco Cordero in the bullpen (likely looking more like the Cordero we saw in 2006 than the one the Brewers have right now) instead of Eric Gagne, they've got Laynce Nix sitting on the d.l. for the first month of the season, and they've got two fewer draft picks in June.  

Is that really a better situation?

I guess there's a certain low-hanging-fruit aspect of this for someone who seems to specialize in combining condescension with a very little amount of baseball knowledge.  

I don't see how, though, one could really look at this deal and condemn what the Rangers did, or regret that the move was made.

0 recs | Comment 41 comments

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Thank you
In his defense, he isn't the only douche who's been saying it.
Dreamcatchers work...if your dream is to be a douchebag...

by Brian Thomas on May 18, 2007 3:08 PM CDT   0 recs

And Adam's comments...
...only further solidifies the gap in knowledge between bloggers who actually watch games and analyze statistics and traditional media goofballs.
Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 18, 2007 3:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

solidify*
Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 18, 2007 3:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Word
"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 18, 2007 4:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Did you go...
...to any of this week's games?  If so, what a waste.  ;-)
Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 18, 2007 4:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Dear God
Yah, I was at last night's game. I had good seats, then I moved down to second row right behind home plate once the game went to extras. So I had a great view of Delmon's home run. (I'm the dude in the light blue jersey holding his red Texas hate in his hands as Delmon is coming in to meet the throng at home plate if you caught Sportcenter.)

And let me just say how strange it was watching a major league game in that tiny ass park. Major league games just don't feel real when you're not in a big stadium.

"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 18, 2007 4:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

excellent breakdown
excellent points, and very well thought out.
Perhaps you should be blogging for the dmn.

I'd also point out that lee's fielding skills are probably worse than any outfielder the team is rolling out there right now, and he would not resign to be a dh

"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on May 18, 2007 3:14 PM CDT   0 recs

Just to reiterate...
Awesome post.  This is one of your best and most thorough breakdowns I have seen.  Good job AJM, not that McMahon will ever see it.

by pblack on May 18, 2007 3:18 PM CDT   0 recs

He might see it
Evan Grant linked to LSB today in his "Cinnabon fresh to you" post - maybe Timmy Drama will click on the link.

by shroomer on May 18, 2007 3:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Not only did he reply
but he dug himself in deeper saying that the Rangers -- if they had managed to get in the playoffs -- would have just been ousted in the first round again, so it was a bad deal anyway.  Did he see St. Louis win the WS?  Once you get in the playoffs it's anybody's game.

by t ball on May 18, 2007 7:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thank You
I could not agree more with your breakdown of this trade (or with McMahon's lack of knowledge for that matter).

The Carlos Lee trade was and is a good deal for the Rangers, especially if Cruz turns into anything of value.

On a sidenote, I now know that if I find myself in agreement with Tim McMahon on anything baseball related, I am more than likely wrong.

by Brandon Wilson on May 18, 2007 3:23 PM CDT   0 recs

DMN Blog..
Don't they have a comments section? AJM, you should cut and paste this and see if McMahon responds. He clearly isnt a very knowledgeable baseball writer man.

by Topgun22 on May 18, 2007 3:23 PM CDT   0 recs

That guy
got his press credentials from a cracker-jack box.
buffering....

by SteveP on May 18, 2007 3:31 PM CDT   0 recs

Agreed
The Carlos Lee trade was us trading parts that we weren't going to keep for a run at the division, a youngish OF and a couple of draft picks.

Its another trade like the Delucci trade, if we could make one of those a year I'd do it.  This year Sammy and Wilkerson are pretty likely to be moved in those ways.

by JKolar on May 18, 2007 3:33 PM CDT   0 recs

Excellent analysis
Right on the money.  People that criticize trades after they know the outcome make me smile.

BTW, who is this McMahon guy and how long has he been on the DMN baseball beat?  He doesn't seem to know much?

by stltxfan on May 18, 2007 3:51 PM CDT   0 recs

J D and Coco
Coco was at least a 50-50 shot at a solid comeback. When on, his stuff defines electric. Jamey Wright? Please! But, he needed a new team/park.

The media always state the obvious when it's too late. Dot Com bust, politics, baseball trades. The cycle never changes, when the conclusive evidence finally rolls-in. Someone's going down in a big way.

J D as GM has a poor team on the field, and the media is just beginning to exploit it.

by 3Bagger on May 18, 2007 3:53 PM CDT   0 recs

McMahon
What's even funnier about the guy is that both Richard Durrett & Evan Grant told him to knock off the "JD is five years old" comments the other day. When your fellow staff members are bitch-slapping your ass down, you're not off to a good start...
"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on May 18, 2007 4:07 PM CDT   0 recs

He's not a baseball writer
Very few people are anymore.

I used to read Peter Gammons's stuff on ESPN Insider (never subscribed, don't know why I could for a year), and he's credited with being a frontrunner in baseball reporting with his Sunday notes column. I can't recall off the top of my head him complaining about a trade/FA agent issue 1/2 year after the fact. Why? Because it's stupid and irrelevant.

It's rudimentary how dumb McMahon's column is (although I didn't read it; I refuse). Yes, Lee is/has/will put up good numbers, but not 6/$100 good numbers. Yes, Coco's doing well, but it's like McMahon just forgot what last season was like.

I'm guessing that McMahon's job is to fill column inches, but at least he could work at it instead of just taking an obvious situation we all recognize and trying to put a contrarian spin on it.

Tired half-assed hack reporting.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on May 18, 2007 4:21 PM CDT   0 recs

Thank you
I was arguing with some dude on here a few days back who said the Lee trade was awful.

Another plus about this trade:
There seemed to be a feeling among the "star" players on this team that management didn't have faith in them, and would never make a big move to give them the ammo to make a run at a title.

Then JD went out and got the biggest bat available at the deadline.

The fact that he did it without mortgaging the future (ie, not dealing prospects) was just icing on the cake.

"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 18, 2007 4:43 PM CDT   0 recs

Star players
Again that shows how crappy our core guys are.  They bitch about not being supported, they get Carlos f'in Lee and then they go in the tank.  They bitch about being micromanaged and they get Wash, the ultimate players' manager, and they suck it up to the tune of practically the worst record in baseball.  I wonder who they are blaming now for their crappiness?  The media?  The rookies?  Maybe if the towels were softer in the locker room their legs wouldn't be so chafed and they could play better.  Sheesh, what a bunch of babies.

by pblack on May 18, 2007 4:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well...
...Lee didn't help the cause much either.  His numbers were significantly lower with the Rangers than they were with the Brewers.
Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 18, 2007 5:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Not really
With Milwaukee: 286/347/529, 125 OPS+

With Texas: 322/369/525, 125 OPS+

He didn't hit HR at the same rate as when he was a Brewer, but his average was better, and everything else was around the same.

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on May 18, 2007 5:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow
Exact same OPS+ despite almost 20 extra points of OBP and 35 in BA? The park/league adjustment is a cruel b!tch.
Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on May 18, 2007 5:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

hmmm
...I guess I was basing my stance on him solely on HR rate.  Bad Moto, Bad.
Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 18, 2007 5:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually
I read a nice quote from the baseball dork about the team's travails this season:

_ "I don't think this is surreal at all," said Mark Teixeira, who had a two-run home run. "We know exactly what's going on here. When we pitch well, we don't hit. When we hit well, we don't pitch well. We've got guys dropping like flies. If we were doing everything exactly right and still losing games, that would be one thing.

"We have a very good idea of why we are losing."_

I thought it was nice to hear him acknowledging the player's culpability for all of the suck.

"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 18, 2007 5:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's
really how you interpreted that?
"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 18, 2007 5:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

he's right
if they hit, they can't outscore the amount of runs the other teams getting....if they hold the other team to a small amount of runs then they cant get a run to save their lives.

nothing is clicking all at once, and they are having some horrible breaks.

"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on May 18, 2007 5:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

How many of those
injured players are actually good, major league players. Lets see.

Cat is a 1 dimensional player who hits for average which is his only attribute. Can't field for shit and has not power. Not really a good player here.

Wilk is a strikeout machine who hasn't had a decent season in 4 years and that is questionable. His only 2 good years were probably the fluke years. His bad years are the norm.

Blalock has never lived up to potential. He is a good player but has major, major flaws.

Ok, Millwood is a good player. Maybe not a true number 1 but certainly an excellent pitcher.

I can't think of anybody else who is really a difference maker. This team is just bad, bad, bad. It was ill conceived from day 1. Personally, I think Washington has been getting a raw deal by some of the fans on this board because this team is exactly what I thought it would be. I think he has done a good job but this team is light on talent. Actually, it is very light on talent. Personally, I think this is what happens when you hire John Hart to wreck your team and then replace him with his protege'.  

by gp on May 18, 2007 5:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Injuries
The Cat - what he does well is get on base and have a decent slugging percentage against righties.  Has averaged a 105 OPS+ over the past six years.  (Obviously, he wasn't doing that this year.)

Wilk - had a 117 OPS+ this season and was on pace for ~35 home runs in a full season.  Has averaged a 111 OPS+ over the past six seasons.

Blalock - he does have flaws, but he has a career OPS+ of 100, even with his last two mediocre years, and he had a 119 OPS+ this year.

Millwood - you're right, he's good, although he sucked this year.

Basically, we've lost four (these last three plus Gagne) of the eight or nine most important players to injuries for significant periods of time.  Of course that's gonna suck.

by a bebop a rebop on May 18, 2007 7:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yah
but Wilkerson strikes out!!! That makes him bad!
"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 18, 2007 8:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Good Grief!!
If Brad Wilkerson or Frank Catalanotto are the 4th best player on your team then your team is the worst team in the majors.

Kevin Mench has never, ever, ever been as bad a player as Nelson Cruz. Cruz can't hit, doesn't have any real game power and isn't very impressive in the field. Mench is much, much better in all areas.

Coco Cordero only struggled when the season started and that was because he was injured and everybody including the coaching staff new it. His fastball was lethargic and his breaking stuff wasn't very crisp either. By the time of the trade, he was doing pretty well and was back to his old self in Milwaukee. I seriously doubt that the ballpark had anything to do with it. It was more of a product of being injured and not playing much during training camp after playing in the the World Baseball Cup or whatever its called. Now, not having Coco is kind of moot since the Rangers have two guys who are just as good and maybe better.

Why do you say the National league is the weaker league? Last time I checked the Cardinals won the World Series. Isn't that the proper parameter for judging this kind of issue?

A couple of years ago the Mets were lambasted for being buyers instead of sellers when they had no chance to win. What they did though was to keep adding talent to their roster until they had a team that is incredible. That is how you build a team. You make trades to better your team over the long run. I would argue that the Lee trade was neither good or bad because it really didn't help the Rangers in any way, shape or form but didn't really hurt them either. Of course, since the Rangers have when everyone is healthy the absolute worst outfield in the majors one might argue that it was a bad trade because Mench is at least a decent player.

The more I think about what Tom Hicks has meant to the Rangers the madder I get. He bought a team that was competitive and regularly making the playoffs and in just a few short years made all the classic bad owner mistakes and along the way has transformed the team back into the laughingstock of baseball. Way to go Tom.

by gp on May 18, 2007 5:37 PM CDT   0 recs

Cruz has stumbled a lot
So far.  But that's just wrong, the comparisons.

Power - Cruz has more than Mench (it hasn't showed up)
Defense - Mench is the #1 culprit over five years of misplayed balls costing runs.  Yes, even more than Soriano before, and Kinsler now. Of note, Cruz probably has the best arm of any Ranger outfielder in years.

Give Cruz the five years Kevin got to see what he can do.  Or only three years, since the age thing is in disfavor for Cruz.

Time does funny things. The worst of which is, it keeps moving when you don't.

by Ed Coffin on May 18, 2007 6:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Please.....
Mench is about average defensively and Cruz isn't even close. He does have a fairly strong arm although he isn't that accurate. Mench seems to have more speed and actually fielded balls that Cruz wouldn't dream of getting. Whoever says that Cruz is a quality major league outfielder is selling you a bill of goods. He is fairly slow, doesn't seem to judge balls well and can't hit a lick. The guy is KP. He is a AAAA player and that is what he probably always will be. The Rangers are better off playing Mahar and Diaz.

by gp on May 18, 2007 7:51 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

mench
more speed and better defensively? I don't know what games you've watched but cruz has excellent speed and is a MUCH better defender than mench could ever hope to be.
"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on May 18, 2007 7:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

This is kind of like
reading a heated argument on which is better, Spam or  potted meat.
"The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place,"--ret Lt. Gen. Odom

by DJCahill on May 19, 2007 2:04 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

While I don't think the Carlos Lee trade....
was a bad trade, I think you could make an argument that it wasn't necessarily a GOOD trade, either.

Cordero was pretty darn good all of last season. He was just unlucky that his first month he gave up a rather high amount of hits (IOW, he was a little unlucky).

Statistically, he was pretty darn good for the whole year. (and yes, I'm pretty much ignoring ERA; ERA sucks for measuring reliever effectiveness unless it's across multiple seasons). In fact, I'd argue he was better with the RANGERS than with the Brewers last year. He just was a) luckier with the Brewers or b) had a better defense behind him or c) both.

OTOH, I can see why they made the trade, and really giving up Mench and Nix wasn't that much to give up in addition to Cordero to get one of the best bats on the market at the time, even if it was a rental.

What pushes it more toward good for me is that they were able to get the draft picks for offering arb.... OTOH, they gave one of those picks right back by signing Catalanotto....

Overall, I've been generally somewhat supportive or ehhhhh, about Daniels's moves except for the Eaton trade, the Catalanotto signing and the Michael Young signing. I also wasn't too happy about the Dominguez trade, but I was proven wrong on that one.

Req

by Requiem on May 19, 2007 3:41 AM CDT   0 recs

How is the the start-up going?
Dreamcatchers work...if your dream is to be a douchebag...

by Brian Thomas on May 19, 2007 5:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ok...
very busy. So, I haven't had much time to post.

Still, it's been very invigorating...

Hope you guys are still doing well,

Req

by Requiem on May 19, 2007 6:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Good luck
I'm sure it will turn out well for you...
Dreamcatchers work...if your dream is to be a douchebag...

by Brian Thomas on May 19, 2007 7:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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