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McCarthy = Starting to Turn Around?

There was a point when Ranger fans were very disgruntled with McCarthy and the trade (some still are, even though most of us know it's way too early).  Because of that, columnists and fans today keep saying "McCarthy is starting to turn it around."  I think if we look at the entire season, then we will see that he's not turning it around, because he's had more good starts than bad.  His peripherals could definitely improve, but he hasn't been horrible.

Here are his starts in order:

April 4th - He pitches 6 innings and allows 3 runs for his first quality start of the season.  Despite the quality start he actually gets the loss in this one as the Rangers fall 5-3.

April 9th - He pitches 6 innings again and allow 2 runs for another quality start.

April 15th - Things get ugly and he allows 6 runs in two innings.  Over the next two weeks, McCarthy (when starting) will pitch a total of 6 innings and allow 17 runs.  That's scary it's so bad, but according to all reports something was wrong with his motion that was corrected later on.

April 20th - Things get even uglier and he allows 6 runs in one inning.  The media and fans start talking about his hurried motion and potential soreness in his throwing arm as the cause of the problems.

April 25th - While trying to get the mental and physical problems worked out, McCarthy comes in to relieve Padilla and fires two shutout innings.

April 29th - Back in the starting role, McCarthy allows five runs in three innings.  Still very ugly, but an improvement over his previous two starts.  At this point, McCarthy is 1-4 with a 9.90 ERA.  He's had two good starts, a good relief appearance and three horrendous starts.

May 4th - McCarthy seems to have things figured out as he pitches 6 innings and allows 1 run.  At the time, Toronto was one of the better hitting teams in the league, and he had just allowed five runs in three innings against them five days earlier.  This was surely significant mentally.  He notches his third quality start of the season, and gets the win.

May 10th - For the first time all season, McCarthy is allowed to break the 100 pitch barrier in a game.  Unfortunately he does so in only 5.1 innings.  It was against the Yankees though, and he only allowed one run.  That gives him another win to bring him to 3-4.

May 15th -Against those dreaded Devil Rays, he goes 6 innings (breaking 100 pitches again), gets 7 Ks and allows three runs.  That gives him a fourth quality start, but not the win as the Rangers lose 4-3.

May 20th - McCarthy pitches 6 innings, allows 1 run for his fifth quality start of the season.  He actually now leads the Rangers in quality starts with five (Tejeda has four).

So now McCarthy stands at 4-4 with an ERA of 5.82.  One of those losses was in a game that he went six and allowed 3, and if you remove the one start where he allowed six runs in 1 inning, then his ERA drops to 4.69 and we're talking about how great a season he's having.  Even with that travesty, the guy now has three very bad starts out of ten appearances.  Those three bad starts were terrible, but they don't appear to be the norm by any means, and I don't think we should be talking about him "turning a corner" since for most of the season he's been fine.  In all reality, he's probably the Ranger's second best starter for the season behind Tejeda.

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Good stuff
Thanks for posting that.
"I'll stomp a mud hole in your ass!"

by boomer1 on May 20, 2007 7:49 PM CDT   0 recs

Brand Mac
is going up, up, up! He's getting it right. Thanks for the numbers.

by 3Bagger on May 20, 2007 10:27 PM CDT   0 recs

Still...
Would rather have Danks & Masset. This team was going no where and JD had to have known that.

by sftxfan on May 20, 2007 10:31 PM CDT   0 recs

you're right
how could Daniels have foreseen that Michael Young would be hitting .228, Ian Kinsler would be hitting .239, Kenny Lofton would be hitting .246, and the starting rotation would have the worst ERA of any team in the league?

Give me a break.  Things haven't gone according to plan, but to suggest that this was obviously going to happen is retarded.

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:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on May 21, 2007 7:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

JD would have needed
even more unforseen things to occur for this team to become a 90 win team.
"The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place,"--ret Lt. Gen. Odom

by DJCahill on May 21, 2007 7:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, but
every team in the division is unpredictable and had the potential to finish with a wide range of win totals.  

by t ball on May 21, 2007 9:45 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Its more likely that they would be in this positio
than for them to improve 4 games over their Pythagorean Win% last year?

I disagree.

I also disagree with the idea that trading McCarthy for Danks is only justified if winning 90 games is a sure thing.

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:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on May 21, 2007 9:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Of course,
the Pythag win % for last years included some of the most productive members of last years team, GMJ, Carlos Lee, and Mark Derosa amongst others, who are no longer on this years team.  That's close to the most prouctive third of your offense gone.
"The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place,"--ret Lt. Gen. Odom

by DJCahill on May 21, 2007 10:11 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you're overrating their contributions
by a lot.

The additions of Cat, Lofton, and Laird along with understandable improvement from Blalock, Wilkerson, and others is more than enough to make up for the loss of those three.

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:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on May 21, 2007 10:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Tough to overrate
the contributions of last years Rangers most valuable position player, GMJ.  Whether you thought he would repeat or not, its indisputable he was the best player as far as contributing to last year's pythags.

I think you are the one who is overestimating the value of our additions, and the assumptions of improvement from Blalock and Wilkerson.

"The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place,"--ret Lt. Gen. Odom

by DJCahill on May 21, 2007 10:38 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

an OF with an .866 OPS (116 OPS+)?
Excuse me if I don't get too excited.

Blalock and Wilkerson are putting up OPS+ of 115 and 116 this year before their injuries.  Both have increased their OPS by 100 points over last year.  Neither is performing at an out of their mind pace.  

------------
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on May 21, 2007 11:30 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

From last year
Top 6 Rangers
                         Vorp  RARP
1.    Gary Matthews Jr.50.0   35.8
2.    Michael Young    46.0    35.2
3.    Mark Teixeira    37.4    30.1
4.    Ian Kinsler    24.3    19
5.    Mark Derosa    21.9    17.6
6.    Carlos Lee    20.0    14.3

Blalock luckily will not have a 2nd half this year, where he hits below replacement level.

"The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place,"--ret Lt. Gen. Odom

by DJCahill on May 21, 2007 11:56 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If we're cherry picking stats
Mathews 6.6 RC/G (37th)
Cat 6.5 RC/G (44th)

Mathews was not irreplaceable.

------------
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on May 21, 2007 12:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He may not have been irreplaceable
but JD didnt do squat to replace him this offseason.  A declining 40 year old CF and a platoon OF/DH with not much fielding ability and no ability to throw didnt quite do it.
"The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place,"--ret Lt. Gen. Odom

by DJCahill on May 21, 2007 12:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

he replaced him
with someone that could deliver similar offensive production and a better track record.  And its not like GMJ was a world beater in CF.  Whether he was here or not, they'd have poor CF defense.

In the end, they did enough to make it plausible that they'd improve by 4 wins over their pythag WP%.  That's the point.

------------
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on May 21, 2007 12:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I keep looking at it
and I see lowered pythags from the replacements.

Lofton worse than last year's GMJ, Cat worse than Last year's Lee, and JHJ worse than last year's DeRosa.  

"The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place,"--ret Lt. Gen. Odom

by DJCahill on May 21, 2007 12:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Cat
is worse than two months of lee and 4 months of mench?
Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on May 21, 2007 3:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

True
Yes, but in this crappy division, we didn't need to win 90 games to make the playoffs.  

by BCanfield on May 21, 2007 8:00 AM CDT   0 recs

Don't look now
but the Angels are on pace to win 97.  I think its a fair bet they will win more than 90.
"The challenge we face today is not how to win in Iraq; it is how to recover from a strategic mistake: invading Iraq in the first place,"--ret Lt. Gen. Odom

by DJCahill on May 21, 2007 8:14 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

well
who saw that coming?
Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on May 21, 2007 9:13 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Only if they get to play
the Rangers more often.....they might win 90, maybe, but they're only 55% vs. everyone else.....

by tklawless on May 21, 2007 9:55 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

not to be a math Beyatch but
55% of 162 games is 89 games.  Only one away from 90 without playing our local patsies.

by Bigfan16 on May 21, 2007 1:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's actually my point.....
they're about an 88-90 win team, not 95-97 wins.

by tklawless on May 21, 2007 3:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The future is looking bright for McCarthy
there will be other strings of poor starts but I still think he's gonna be a really good if not great SP.  
If you don't have fun it's your own damn fault.

by cgolden on May 21, 2007 8:58 AM CDT   0 recs

MCCarthy is good
but all the pitching in the upper part of the zone is no bueno por caca

by M_Y_isDANK on May 21, 2007 11:36 AM CDT   0 recs

word
he got away with a lot of crap yesterday.  I was there and the dude was topping out at 91mph, I thought this guy was supposed to sit at 94-96... he did what he had to, which I will give him cred for
"Well, I like my women like I like my chicken, with a little bit of fat on the end..." -- Rodney Carrington

by hotshot215 on May 21, 2007 11:47 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No
he's sat at 90-91 all season.  He was at 95 when he was a reliever because he could in short stints like most relievers.

by slimshadty12 on May 21, 2007 1:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm a White Sox fan...
The fastest I've ever seen McCarthy throw was the final game of 2005 at the Jake. He was sitting at 93-94, and occassionally touching 95.

I think, like a lot of lanky guys with inconsistent mechanics, his velocity varies from day to day. You may yet see a few starts this year where he pitches in the mid 90s. It also wouldn't surprise me if he pitches a few at 88.

by Stealfirstbase on May 22, 2007 3:43 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

90-91
I'd feel alot better about that velocity if it ever paired up w/ some movement.

And if he is gonna stick w/ the 4-seamers, he really should be pitching on more of a downhill plane (although they just tweaked his mechanics, maybe they hold off on more tinkering).  

Dreamcatchers work...if your dream is to be a douchebag...

by Brian Thomas on May 21, 2007 2:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Kind of depressing
Matt Eddy of BA ranks the MLB rookies and has Danks second behind Matsuzaka. And Danks even has a better ERA than him.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=288

by zywica on May 21, 2007 2:56 PM CDT   0 recs

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