McCarthy = Starting to Turn Around?
There was a point when Ranger fans were very disgruntled with McCarthy and the trade (some still are, even though most of us know it's way too early). Because of that, columnists and fans today keep saying "McCarthy is starting to turn it around." I think if we look at the entire season, then we will see that he's not turning it around, because he's had more good starts than bad. His peripherals could definitely improve, but he hasn't been horrible.
Here are his starts in order:
April 4th - He pitches 6 innings and allows 3 runs for his first quality start of the season. Despite the quality start he actually gets the loss in this one as the Rangers fall 5-3.
April 9th - He pitches 6 innings again and allow 2 runs for another quality start.
April 15th - Things get ugly and he allows 6 runs in two innings. Over the next two weeks, McCarthy (when starting) will pitch a total of 6 innings and allow 17 runs. That's scary it's so bad, but according to all reports something was wrong with his motion that was corrected later on.
April 20th - Things get even uglier and he allows 6 runs in one inning. The media and fans start talking about his hurried motion and potential soreness in his throwing arm as the cause of the problems.
April 25th - While trying to get the mental and physical problems worked out, McCarthy comes in to relieve Padilla and fires two shutout innings.
April 29th - Back in the starting role, McCarthy allows five runs in three innings. Still very ugly, but an improvement over his previous two starts. At this point, McCarthy is 1-4 with a 9.90 ERA. He's had two good starts, a good relief appearance and three horrendous starts.
May 4th - McCarthy seems to have things figured out as he pitches 6 innings and allows 1 run. At the time, Toronto was one of the better hitting teams in the league, and he had just allowed five runs in three innings against them five days earlier. This was surely significant mentally. He notches his third quality start of the season, and gets the win.
May 10th - For the first time all season, McCarthy is allowed to break the 100 pitch barrier in a game. Unfortunately he does so in only 5.1 innings. It was against the Yankees though, and he only allowed one run. That gives him another win to bring him to 3-4.
May 15th -Against those dreaded Devil Rays, he goes 6 innings (breaking 100 pitches again), gets 7 Ks and allows three runs. That gives him a fourth quality start, but not the win as the Rangers lose 4-3.
May 20th - McCarthy pitches 6 innings, allows 1 run for his fifth quality start of the season. He actually now leads the Rangers in quality starts with five (Tejeda has four).
So now McCarthy stands at 4-4 with an ERA of 5.82. One of those losses was in a game that he went six and allowed 3, and if you remove the one start where he allowed six runs in 1 inning, then his ERA drops to 4.69 and we're talking about how great a season he's having. Even with that travesty, the guy now has three very bad starts out of ten appearances. Those three bad starts were terrible, but they don't appear to be the norm by any means, and I don't think we should be talking about him "turning a corner" since for most of the season he's been fine. In all reality, he's probably the Ranger's second best starter for the season behind Tejeda.
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Good stuff
by boomer1 on May 20, 2007 7:49 PM CDT 0 recs
Brand Mac
by 3Bagger on May 20, 2007 10:27 PM CDT 0 recs
Still...
by sftxfan on May 20, 2007 10:31 PM CDT 0 recs
you're right
Give me a break. Things haven't gone according to plan, but to suggest that this was obviously going to happen is retarded.
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post
by jtts on
May 21, 2007 7:22 AM CDT
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JD would have needed
by DJCahill on
May 21, 2007 7:40 AM CDT
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Yes, but
by t ball on
May 21, 2007 9:45 AM CDT
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Its more likely that they would be in this positio
I disagree.
I also disagree with the idea that trading McCarthy for Danks is only justified if winning 90 games is a sure thing.
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spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post
by jtts on
May 21, 2007 9:50 AM CDT
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Of course,
by DJCahill on
May 21, 2007 10:11 AM CDT
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you're overrating their contributions
The additions of Cat, Lofton, and Laird along with understandable improvement from Blalock, Wilkerson, and others is more than enough to make up for the loss of those three.
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spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post
by jtts on
May 21, 2007 10:23 AM CDT
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Tough to overrate
I think you are the one who is overestimating the value of our additions, and the assumptions of improvement from Blalock and Wilkerson.
by DJCahill on
May 21, 2007 10:38 AM CDT
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an OF with an .866 OPS (116 OPS+)?
Blalock and Wilkerson are putting up OPS+ of 115 and 116 this year before their injuries. Both have increased their OPS by 100 points over last year. Neither is performing at an out of their mind pace.
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post
by jtts on
May 21, 2007 11:30 AM CDT
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From last year
Vorp RARP
1. Gary Matthews Jr.50.0 35.8
2. Michael Young 46.0 35.2
3. Mark Teixeira 37.4 30.1
4. Ian Kinsler 24.3 19
5. Mark Derosa 21.9 17.6
6. Carlos Lee 20.0 14.3
Blalock luckily will not have a 2nd half this year, where he hits below replacement level.
by DJCahill on
May 21, 2007 11:56 AM CDT
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If we're cherry picking stats
Cat 6.5 RC/G (44th)
Mathews was not irreplaceable.
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spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post
by jtts on
May 21, 2007 12:15 PM CDT
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He may not have been irreplaceable
by DJCahill on
May 21, 2007 12:22 PM CDT
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he replaced him
In the end, they did enough to make it plausible that they'd improve by 4 wins over their pythag WP%. That's the point.
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spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post
by jtts on
May 21, 2007 12:27 PM CDT
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I keep looking at it
Lofton worse than last year's GMJ, Cat worse than Last year's Lee, and JHJ worse than last year's DeRosa.
by DJCahill on
May 21, 2007 12:39 PM CDT
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Cat
by ab03 on
May 21, 2007 3:33 PM CDT
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True
by BCanfield on May 21, 2007 8:00 AM CDT 0 recs
Don't look now
by DJCahill on
May 21, 2007 8:14 AM CDT
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well
by ab03 on
May 21, 2007 9:13 AM CDT
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Only if they get to play
by tklawless on
May 21, 2007 9:55 AM CDT
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not to be a math Beyatch but
by Bigfan16 on
May 21, 2007 1:47 PM CDT
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That's actually my point.....
by tklawless on
May 21, 2007 3:55 PM CDT
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The future is looking bright for McCarthy
by cgolden on May 21, 2007 8:58 AM CDT 0 recs
MCCarthy is good
by M_Y_isDANK on May 21, 2007 11:36 AM CDT 0 recs
word
by hotshot215 on
May 21, 2007 11:47 AM CDT
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No
by slimshadty12 on
May 21, 2007 1:37 PM CDT
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I'm a White Sox fan...
I think, like a lot of lanky guys with inconsistent mechanics, his velocity varies from day to day. You may yet see a few starts this year where he pitches in the mid 90s. It also wouldn't surprise me if he pitches a few at 88.
by Stealfirstbase on
May 22, 2007 3:43 AM CDT
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90-91
And if he is gonna stick w/ the 4-seamers, he really should be pitching on more of a downhill plane (although they just tweaked his mechanics, maybe they hold off on more tinkering).
by Brian Thomas on
May 21, 2007 2:47 PM CDT
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Kind of depressing
by zywica on May 21, 2007 2:56 PM CDT 0 recs










