Trading big time first basemen

by badradiorules on Jun 27, 2007 10:36 AM CDT Comment 29 comments

I see a lot of the expectations for what we could get for Teix and it sounds really good, but it is hard for me to believe that it is possible.

So, I tried to think about an established big time 1B that was traded mid-season to see what to expect in return.

The first that came to mind was Mark McGwire in 1997. I know that the circumstances that were involved then were different than they are now, but FWIW at least it may be a peak into what we could expect if we hold onto Teix into next season

The return for McGwire:

Blake Stein: 6th round pick in 1994 out of tiny Spring Hill College.

As a 23 y/o in 96: A+ 16-5 2.15 171.2IP 122H
As a 24 y/o in 97: AA 8-7 4.24 133.2IP 128H

TJ Matthews: A quality/established middle/set-up relief guy

Big leagues 95: 1.52 23G 29.2IP 28K
96: 3.01 67G 83.2IP 80K
97: 2.15 40G 46IP 46K

Eric Ludwick: 2nd round pick by the Mets out of UNLV traded to the Cards in a deal for Bernard Gilkey.

As a 24 y/o in 96: AAA 3-4 2.83 60.1IP 73K
As a 25 y/o in 97: AAA 6-8 2.93 80 IP 85K
A couple of cups of coffee each season in bigs with very little success.

Obviously none of these guys really panned out for the A's and I'm not saying that this is what we should expect. I just think that this may show a little bit that we just aren't going to empty the cupboard of someone's farm system for Teix.

Again, I realize that the situation is a little different, but I thought it was interesting.

This is my first diary, let me know if it needs be my last.

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Re:

This is my first diary, let me know if it needs be my last.

No, speculation is all we have to go on at this point. Thanks for your post.

"Fire Jon Daniels!" Someone has to start it.

by chief on Jun 27, 2007 10:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

hmm

Interesting info. Thanks.

loves me some "loves me some"

by trza on Jun 27, 2007 10:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Aaaahhh...Bernard Gilkey

A monster on Tony LaRussa Baseball on Genesis.

by isaacbrock on Jun 27, 2007 10:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

I think it's probably better not to limit it to just first baseman, but to expand it to power bats with similar amounts of time left on their contracts and at a similar age. I'm much too lazy to do that, but I'm going to guess that it is much more common to see a bat like that traded in their contract year, and not when they are still arb-eligible. Hard to compare to McGwire.

As long as Hurlerhurley is around you are guaranteed not to be the worst diarist.

by t ball on Jun 27, 2007 11:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll see what

I can conjur up

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jun 27, 2007 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't have to search long to realize

that trading a power hitter usually goes bad.

Rarely do you get a good return (in hindsight).

Look at Delgado, Moises Alou, Sheffield, etc. Sexson to the D-Backs might be the best return I can think of with Spivey, Capuano, etc.

by isaacbrock on Jun 27, 2007 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay

I dove into the Sexson deal a little. He was a free agent after that year. and with Noochie Varner and Shane Nance, the Brewers got Jorge De La Rosa, Junior Spivey, Chris Capuano, Chad Moeller and Lyle Overbay.

So if we held onto Teix until the offseason what if we sent him(Sexson), Brandon Boggs(Noochie Varner) and AJ Murray(Shane Nance) to the Dodgers for Scott Elbert (De La Rosa), Wilson Betemit (Spivey), Hong-chih Kuo (Chris Capuano), Ben Davis (Chad Moeller) and James Loney (Overbay).

I know that the needs are not the same for the two teams like the Brewers/D-Backs, but almost all the guys have very similar ages/results/positions as the guys involved in the Sexson trade. (yes, de la rosa had similar stats at the same levels as Elbert)

Maybe a better picture of what the return could be.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jun 27, 2007 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Wasn't BigMac a FA after that year and he was 33...

One picture is worth 1,000 denials.

by nirvana on Jun 27, 2007 12:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yup

the difference b/t a tex with a year and a half and at his age is quite a bit different from a couple months of Big Mac. Although Mac was more likely to sign longterm but at 33 is that a value?

anyway, i think tex holds more value than Mac did. the extra season makes a huge difference. the age makes a huge difference. and that was a long time ago. and tex is a much better fielding 1b.

.500 or bust!

by Jayslick on Jun 27, 2007 12:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Uhmm

Mac still had a little in the tank. I know there is an age difference, but the stands aren't full to watch Teix take BP, so I think it slides the scale a little bit.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jun 27, 2007 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

he was a FA at the end of the year. Won't get that much.

by Longhorn on Jun 27, 2007 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not a mid-year deal, but

what about the trading of Jim Edmonds (elite defense and offense at the time) for Kent Bottenfield (coming off an 18-7 season) and Adam Kennedy (1st round draft pick with some promise at the time)?

by willamos2 on Jun 27, 2007 2:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Bottenfield

One of the best examples of selling high.

by t ball on Jun 27, 2007 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glenn Davis

1991: Glenn Davis to Baltimore in exchange for kid starters Curt Schilling and Pete Harnisch and kid outfielder Steve Finley.

by Jamey Newberg on Jun 27, 2007 2:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice one sir.

One picture is worth 1,000 denials.

by nirvana on Jun 27, 2007 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

touche

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jun 27, 2007 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Davis

He's a great example.

I tend to agree with Evan Grant, though, that packaging Teixeira with a reliever will get us the best overall return.

If we could package Teixeira and Gagne to get Loney, Kemp, and Elbert, and then put something together with Otsuka to get Lastings Milledge, I would be thrilled.

by BurntOrange on Jun 27, 2007 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Elbert

replace Elbert with Billingsley or Kershaw and I'm on board.

by Brandon Wilson on Jun 27, 2007 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Billingsley or Kershaw

Not sure you're going to get one of them, along with Loney and Kemp, but I would be all for that as well.

by BurntOrange on Jun 27, 2007 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

im pretty sure

elbert went down earlier this season with some sort of shoulder injury. I dont know if the rangers would take the chance on him

by Lonerangers on Jun 27, 2007 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

SF for Pierzynski?

can't forget what the Ranger's gave up for Lee Mazilli!

by tklawless on Jun 27, 2007 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Beltran

he's not the same position obviously, but his stats and age were comparable to Tex (although Tex is clearly better). In a 3way deal, KC got Buck, Teahan, and Wood. But Beltran was just a rental, which seems to me to suggest that since the other team would be getting Tex for another year, we should get a team's two best hitting prospects and their #2 pitching prospect.

by Randy Richardson on Jun 27, 2007 4:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

"Tex is clearly better"

I don't think I really agree with that statement. They both hit for power, draw walks, and play great D. However, Beltran's speed would give him an edge over Teixeira. He's not running as much anymore (who is?) but he definitely racked up a few SB's in KC.

by cmkelly29 on Jun 27, 2007 5:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Tex/Beltran

I meant that in comparing them both at age 27. If you just put up Beltran's stats to that point, Tex has a better resume going into his trade.

by Randy Richardson on Jun 27, 2007 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Spring Hill College

Assuming it's the ame one, that's right across the bay from me. I've never heard of their baseball program, can't think they're too good.

by a bebop a rebop on Jun 27, 2007 11:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

teix for bedard straight up

anyone see a problem with that?

by drilledpress on Jun 28, 2007 12:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Tex for Bedard

If I'm Texas, I think long and hard about that one, but I think it would be better to get multiple pieces of a future puzzle.

But, from the O's perspective, if they're in love with Tex (which some have reported) why not wait until he becomes a FA? They can't seriously think they're going to contend for the AL East next year. So why trade for him now, when you can get him without giving up any players when he becomes a FA.

by Randy Richardson on Jun 28, 2007 12:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What could that cost?

The Yankees, Boston, Detroit, the Dodger's, maybe SF, Atlanta & any team without Pujols & RHoward will be in the bidding.....why would he choose Baltimore? Because it's home? Puhlease!!!

by tklawless on Jun 28, 2007 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs