Evan Grant on the 2007 draft and Ranger draft philosophy
Excellent, in-depth piece from Evan Grant in Sunday's DMN, on the importance of the 2007 draft, and the issues with the lack of continuity in the scouting department leading up to this point.
I'd encourage folks to read the whole thing, because there's a lot of good stuff there, but some excerpts...
"It's an opportunity this organization hasn't had in some time," general manager Jon Daniels said. "For a variety of reasons - injuries, trades, attrition and some players graduating to the majors - the farm system is not where we want it to be. This is a chance to add a whole lot of premium talent in a two-day period."
This draft bounty is not just happenstance. This was at the crux of Daniels' plan for building the organization when he took over for John Hart after 2005.
The idea was delicate and two-fold: Try to maintain competitiveness at the big league level while retaining the ability to stockpile draft picks. The hope was the Rangers would win in 2006 and still put themselves in position to rejuvenate the farm system quickly.
And if they didn't win, they'd still have the draft bounty as a fallback. The plan was only enhanced when the Rangers traded Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix to Milwaukee for soon-to-be-free agent Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz. If Lee helped them overcome the AL West, great; if not, they'd get two picks among the top 40 as compensation.
"Part of what we talked about was putting together a self-contained, self-sustaining system," Daniels said. "We want to have different waves of players that move forward together and graduate to the majors."
* * *
If there is one area in which a lack of continuity and stability has most hurt the Rangers, it may be amateur scouting.
Since 1995, the organization has had six scouting directors, each with a distinctively different taste.
And then there was 2004, when a showdown between Grady Fuson and John Hart became a palpable part of the process, and 2005, when Hart, manager Buck Showalter, player personnel director Dom Chiti and current scouting director Ron Hopkins all jockeyed to make selections. Neither of the Rangers' top two pitching selections from that draft have won a game above the Arizona Rookie League.
* * *
Ron Hopkins, scouting director: The selection of players is ultimately his responsibility. That wasn't always the case. In 2005, the first-round selection of John Mayberry Jr. was made by general manager John Hart. Last year's draft was his first real draft as scouting director.
A lot of really good info on the changes Daniels has implemented, and the guys involved in making the decisions next week.
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Because...
by Adam J. Morris on Jun 2, 2007 11:40 PM CDT up reply actions
My problem with the draft
Why was he a first round guy.
Stupid.
Third round? ok, but 17th or 19th or whatever.
Damn
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 12:44 AM CDT up reply actions
That's my problem with the draft
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm going to
by Brett Perryman on Jun 3, 2007 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Dear God
Knock on some mother f'ing wood, dude!
Yea
Doesn't make any sense, especially when you look at the big league level, where teams rarely steal bases.
Also, at the big league level, when your choices are whether to play Cat or Cruz in left, even though Cat has only one tool that is better than Cruz, it is a no brainer...CAT.
So, why have the exact opposite mindset when drafting. The name of the game is hitting and scoring runs, draft accordingly.
I know pitchers are harder, but to me, position players are pretty simple.
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 1:14 AM CDT up reply actions
You have
by gp on Jun 3, 2007 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
Mayberry - age: 23, .232/.319/.509, 26/55 BB/SO ratio, 30 XBH in 220 AB
Davis - age: 21, .262/.310/.518, 14/64 BB/SO ratio, 29 XBH in 191 AB
I don't know that Davis is a better prospect than Mayberry, but on the surface you seemed to have gotten a very similar player in the fifth round a year later to the one you picked in the middle of the first the prior year. And Davis has a great arm, bats left handed, and is in the middle of a trial as a 3B, which would obviously add quite a bit of extra value.
by Brett Perryman on Jun 3, 2007 1:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Yea
He didn't put up much numbers in college, was viewed as a project. He may work out fine, but draft projects later on, not middle of the first round.
And this isn't just a Rangers issue, if they wouldn't have taken him, somebody else would have soon thereafter
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd take Mayberry's numbers with a grain of salt
by mjh on Jun 3, 2007 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions
x
That quote really stood out, it sounds like what good teams do..
Yeah
At any rate, if he's saying that collecting these picks were a key part of their overall organizational plan (whether it really was or not), at least you have to figure that they're going to draft for talent rather than bonus value. So that's important.
by Brett Perryman on Jun 2, 2007 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions
so, Z...
You mean Julio Meyer
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Speak of the devil...
I don't want any low ceiling "dirt dogs" in the first round.
Whoa, whoa
Not sure if you're saying that or that Borbon does, but I don't want anyone disparaging my guy like that.
And for what it's worth, one of the things that was so troubling about Meyer was that all you had to do was watch him swing the bat to know that he'd never hit, and at least with Borbon, I don't think that you can say that. I don't think he'll be that great of a player even if he has good batting averages, and that's a lot of the problem, but he at least looks like someone who can hit a little, unlike Meyer.
by Brett Perryman on Jun 3, 2007 1:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Noonan
Probably he does have much better swing mechanics than Meyer (I don't know... my computer can't deal with the video on MiLB.com... no Idea why), but it sounds a lot like he's a scrappy little hustler with limited ceiling and little or no power potential.
Sounded a lot like Ramano, Bourgeois and Lemon. Not bad picks necassarily (they all had potential at the time), but I don't want us spending a first round pick on a guy who lacks the potential to be a true star.
Sandwich round? Sure. 17 or 24? No thanks.
First of all
He offers one of the most polished bats in the draft and had emerged as San Diego's top prep prospect, evoking comparisons to Phillies star Chase Utley. While he's not likely to hit for as much power as the former UCLA star, Noonan resembles Utley as an above-average lefthanded bat who profiles best at second base...He stays balanced, trusts his hands and makes consistent hard contact.
sounds like Meyer. I mean Meyer was a tools player, a strong arm with defending as a prime asset. Noonan is a bat, not a tools guy who you hope learns to hit at age 22. If everyone who knows how to play baseball is a Meyer comp, you're closing yourself out on some really good players.
I just don't get your comparison there at all.
Having said all of that, I don't know that he's a great prospect. Like in the NFL where it's a little easier to get a really good offensive guard prospect at the end of the first round or early second than a stud left tackle, it seems to me that you could get value in a guy who scouts aren't enamoured with because he's more of a 2B than a flashy SS, when in reality, quality 2B are just as much of a rare commodity than SS right now.
Not projecting to quite as much power as f-ing Chase Utley isn't exactly a big negative, and this guy, as of a couple of weeks ago, had 51 hits. Nine were HRs (one HR every ten AB), and 42 were for XBH. That's over 82% of his hits for extra bases in San Diego. That doesn't sound like Drew Meyer to me. As a Junior at SC, 28% of Meyer's hits were for extra bases, and his BA was about half Noonan's.
I just don't see any evidence of what you're talking about. Obviously if I thought he was anything like Meyer I wouldn't want him.
by Brett Perryman on Jun 3, 2007 3:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Easy, big buddy
You're right... that one doesn't sound like Meyer in the least.
So what
by Brett Perryman on Jun 3, 2007 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Meyerlike
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=noonan
just got done watching the video
Sorry
by Brett Perryman on Jun 4, 2007 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions
At 17
But back to Weathers, I know that everyone gripes about taking relievers that high, and he hasn't been pitching for long enough to be all that polished - plus some of those guys, Wagner, Aardsma, etc. have missed. But this is a fresh lightning arm that has a much, much better chance of impacting your team than a lot of the options available. I'm not all set on him or anything, I just think he'd be an interesting guy to look at, since you have so many more chances to get projectable guys afterward.
At 24 I'd really like Ahrens I think, but there are still lots of arms to consider, and I'd be tempted to look at LaPorta unless I saw for myself that he does seem to have a hole in his swing that isn't very correctable. I might could live with Noonan or Arencibia there as well. It's just a little tough to pin anything down at that point, with as many guys are moving up and down like they are right now.
I still like Brown at 35 even though he's slipped below that some in various rankings it looks like.
by Brett Perryman on Jun 3, 2007 3:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Weathers is becoming less and less likely
I'm really hoping some of the tourney pitchers, like Schmidt and Arrieta, zoom past some of the HS pitchers.
I like
Very Interesting
This draft is certanly the limis test for JD"s reign. Reading the article, it's easier to understand the draft embarrassments of the recent (and not so recent) past. adn't realised how many hands/scouts we had tied behind our backs.
Let's keep ur fingers crossed and check back after we see how they do. This draft will certainly eventually put the great Coco trade debate to rest...eventually.
by dog named blue on Jun 3, 2007 12:24 AM CDT reply actions
Hmm
Guess I haven't spent enough time lately on NMLR boards to know what tired, overdone debates Seven/whatever other names he's using has going on.
by Brett Perryman on Jun 3, 2007 12:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Daniels
-- Beane's money-conscious A's are paying Kendall $13.4 million this year (he has 1 hr and 116 rbis in the last 2+ seasons)
-- Epstein - JD Drew 5yrs/70million
-- Look at the mess of aging veterans and huge contracts that Cashman has on his hands.
my point is, there is no gm "magic", even the guys who are considered the best make big mistakes. Lets give JD and Wash some time to make this team a contender.
by Randy Richardson on Jun 3, 2007 1:02 AM CDT reply actions
No reason now
On the other hand, he has the opportunity theoreticaly to be the savior of an organization beginning with this draft
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions
What...
I don't see how any real Rangers fans can call for JD to be fired. We need continuity in this organization to move us forward. It's easy to be against someone and there are way too many casual fans that think they could be a better gm. They're are no gm geniuses out there my point is, there is no gm "magic", even the guys who are considered the best make big mistakes. Lets give JD and Wash some time to make this team a contender.
:
-- Beane's money-conscious A's are paying Kendall $13.4 million this year (he has 1 hr and 116 rbis in the last 2+ seasons)
-- Epstein - JD Drew 5yrs/70million
-- Look at the mess of aging veterans and huge contracts that Cashman has on his hands.[b/]
It is easy to see why we should call for Jd's head:
- Soriano trade
- Young & AG trade
With what we had this year there is no way in hell that we should have traded Danks & Masset for a guy a year ahead of the schedule.
All in all he has done a bad job. If you do not want to fire him because you want to keep the staus quo than more power to you but if someone is just not getting the job done then they just need to go no matter what.
And fuck MY if he is coming out and saying that we need to keep pacth working this thing and perpetubly losing. This thing should have been blown ;ast year.
Daniels
All I'm saying is stick with the plan - instead of scrapping it every 2-3 years and starting over.
"Blow this team up" has to be the most overused phrase. When has that ever worked?
by Randy Richardson on Jun 3, 2007 2:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Yah
plus
by Randy Richardson on Jun 3, 2007 3:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Plus
by Brett Perryman on Jun 3, 2007 3:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Wow!
I think the problem that I have with the apologists is that everything gets rationalized to fit into their neat little world view. Right now, people are saying that rebuilding the farm through the draft was why they made those bad trades. Huh? Whatever. We'll see in due time whether those 9 picks in the first 5 rounds amount to anything. If they get 1 or 2 major league role players out of the deal they'll be happy. If they get 1 bonafide star they'll be ecstatic.
The problem with the bad trades is not so much the bad trades because every team makes them. It is that they were dealing from such a position of weakness and the trades left them trying to play an outfield corner rotation of Cruz, Wilkerson, Catalanotto and Sosa which was dreadful. Top that off with Laird, Kinsler and Blalock and this team has major holes. Where he messed up on the trades, in my opinion, is that he traded quality major league talent and didn't fill any of the obvious holes and created more holes in the process and when the inevitable Wilkerson injury happened they found themselves playing 2 AAAA type players in the outfield instead of one.
Fire him or not I don't really care. Probably, the only thing I can ask for at this point is that the Rangers pick a reconstruction model and stick with it instead of changing in midstream. I also think that they need to try to draft guys who can play both offense and defense. Specialist guys are ok as long as they are outstanding at their specialized skill. I'd just rather see them get guys who are two way players. They don't have to be Tori Hunter good on the defensive end, just capable. I am so tired of the Rangers drafting Incaviglia types (not that I didn't love the way he hustled and played).
by gp on Jun 3, 2007 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions
reconstruction
Changing management again, and changing organizational philosophy again will cause more harm than good.
There's some intellectual dishonesty in this post.
- What's the problem with Wilk, besides the injuries? He's been reasonably productive, when healthy. I don't know where we would have gotten the indication, prior to the trade, that he was particularly injury prone.
- Cat's a career .300 hitter. Pointing at him as an unreasonable gamble in the offseason seems to be ridiculous.
- Sosa hasn't been bad, and at $500k guaranteed, he's been a steal.
- Cruz has sucked. Maybe he's indicative of the love affair the current (or recently current, anyway) scouts have with "toolsy" types that smack the shit out of the ball in BP. I don't know.
Adam's been saying this, over and over... it's not really the offense that's killing us, it's the starting pitching.
Okay
My main problem is that we traded Soriano for him basically straight up.
That's the problem with trading guys the year before they're FA's. You dump Soriano, so that "you get SOMETHING for him, instead of just watching him walk."
I contend that with the money that would have come off the books when Soriano left, and the compensatory pick that you would recieved, you could have gone out and got much more than Wilk.
Also, you get a guy in his contract year. Imagine Soriano in left field everyday for this club last year. This team was in it until late, who knows where they would have been with a 40/40 guy in the lineup.
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
soriano
What?
41 2B, 34 HR, 92 RBI, 35 SB, 115 OPS +
Wilkerson
35 2B, 22 HR, 69 RBI, 10 SB, 108 OPS +
And Soriano was the kind of guy that you knew would come up big in a contract year and Wilkerson was coming off a terrible year.
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
soriano
the guys never going to do what he did last season.heck when he was with texas he never did what he even did with the yankees.
plus they werent going to sign sori, and kinsler needed to move up, and the team obviously wouldnt force soriano to move to the outfield.
Soriano
by Adam J. Morris on Jun 3, 2007 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Kinsler?
And there's only $6 million difference in their salaries, that keeps you from signing anyone else?
And if it does, you just give him away and get next to nothing in return
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
well
they asked he said no and they said ok sorry, play where you want
That's one of the problems
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions
But there's no guarantee...
You're right
by badradiorules on Jun 3, 2007 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions
There is nothing
Of course, Ben, you are the one being intellectually dishonest as usual. I never even mentioned the friggin' offense. I wasn't bitching about it at all. But if you want bitching about startin pitching all you have to mention is that Chris Young and Danks. Maybe, we should also mention signing Padilla to that contract with his history of instability or not resigning the guys they traded for such as Eaton. This team went into the season with 4 huge question marks in the rotation and now after 1/3 of the season we know how that has worked out. Of course, the starting pitching might just be a little better if the Rangers actually sported a team that played major league caliber defense. This team was poorly designed from the start and for the life of me I don't know why you and Adam can't see that. You probably can but just want to stir the pot.
by gp on Jun 3, 2007 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
just to clarify
at home, he converted 2 of 9 save opportunities with a 6.56 era. He was consistently booed by home fans and was damaged goods. Good for him that he's turned it around this year.
I think Wilkerson is a solid left-fielder, have no problem with his defense.
by Randy Richardson on Jun 3, 2007 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Most important point to me
"I don't think it's been fair to the area scouts to give them a different set of criteria every year," Daniels said. "We want to take the best player available, and we don't want to limit ourselves. There is always the risk vs. reward debate, but we don't want our scouts to eliminate any players from consideration simply because of some specific criteria."
JD is rebuilding the scouting department, and that may be the most important thing he has done thus far in his tenure, and one of the reasons I think he knows what he is doing.

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