Tex trade realism

by stltxfan on Jun 5, 2007 12:18 AM CDT Comment 12 comments

I think most here are in agreement we should trade Tex and get something decent back. However, I think everyone's expectations should take a step back (along with the local media). I think this has been linked previously, but Buster Olney blogged on this subject several days ago at (must be ESPN insider to view) http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster&entryDate=20070601

To quote the upshot:
"What the Rangers will probably get, then, is some tepid offers. Maybe a couple of decent young players, but almost certainly no top-flight pitching prospects -- which is what Texas needs -- because teams just don't offer up their Garzas, their Lincecums, their Lesters any more. "The greater limitation on these trades is the value almost all organizations are beginning to place on young, controllable talent," one executive wrote in an e-mail. "There is a better understanding than ever among more clubs that you need to have a balanced roster with cost-effective talent mixed with veterans regardless of your market."

"If this happens, then -- if the Rangers get some very lukewarm interest -- what will they do? Would they be willing to trade Teixeira for a package that their fans will never believe is equal to the first baseman's talent or production? Or will they do what Bowden did, and just take the draft pick compensation and let Teixeira walk away? Tough call. Very, very tough situation."

The Tex situation in a nutshell:

Any team that takes him on has him for 1.5 years. Being a Boras client, he's going to go to free agency. Teams know this and are going to offer players equal to a year and a half of Tex. This may be very underwhelming.

What's he gonna cost next year? I think he's arb eligible for 2008(someone correct me if that is wrong). What's that going to cost? $10-15 Mil for a year? Another reason teams are not going to offer alot and take on a big salary.

If you keep Tex, you get 2 compensation draft picks. Like it or not, this is your standard for evaluating a trade. If you can trade him for what you perceive is better than 2 high picks, then do it. Otherwise, keep the year and a half and allow the opportunity to re-sign him. If the Rangers are substantially better next year, maybe we can work it out.....?

Just pointing out the return for Tex is not going to be the haul many may think.

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Your "nutshell"...

summary of value is not really how it works. What you would receive is not "equal to a year and a half of Tex."

by benmor78 on Jun 5, 2007 12:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So,

What is it? Are you saying we can get alot more? If so, I'm all for it!

by stltxfan on Jun 5, 2007 12:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trades of this nature...

don't go straight value for value. Tex has inherent value, prospects have less inherent value and more time value. I've explained this before, you can click on my name or search for "option pricing prospect."

by benmor78 on Jun 5, 2007 12:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not looking for an argument

I just think when it's all said and done, we're either going to be disappointed in what we get in trade or get two comp picks. If we can get more, yippee!

by stltxfan on Jun 5, 2007 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to this model

Teix has considerably more value if traded at the deadline this year as opposed to the winter, right?

I guess that is common sense, but I bring it up because I really hope JD is working his ass off right now. If we end up holding on to him until the winter, I think teams will not have nearly as much motivation to put together a good package for him.

by tricer on Jun 5, 2007 1:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regardless of when.....

.....Teams are not going to pony up big prospects for someone they know will walk at the end of 2008 and will cost $10-$15 Mil next year.
If the Rangers can get better than 2 high draft picks, they should go for it. I just don't have high hopes that much more than that will be offered.

by stltxfan on Jun 5, 2007 1:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A year of Teix for 10-15 million...

...is a pretty steep discount compared to FA market rates.

by tricer on Jun 5, 2007 2:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We shouldn't trade him then

Stop this bullshit.

Liberal Canada is "special" when it comes to polluting

by Sharky on Jun 5, 2007 12:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree..

If we can't get top talent, keep him..

Untill someone gives in.

Arias is the third cousin of David Ortiz? Sucks for Big Papi...

by miles on Jun 5, 2007 12:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

Odd that Olney now says Lester wouldn't be available...considering we almost got him for ARod.

Anyway, first off Teixeira isn't expensive.

So, bottom line, someone will feel they're close but need an extra bat (ie, not a Jeff Conine-type bat, but a Ryan Howard-type bat), and they will understand that that kind of production doesn't come cheap.

Nobody's predicting Lincecum or Garza. I do think Maybin is reasonable to expect back, and even a guy like Miller or Lester, guys who are rounding into form but aren't the lights out performer that say a Gallardo is.

Olney does not realize what a unique package Teixeira in 2007 represents. A year and a half of the player's prime production. A switch hitter. A Gold Glover. There's no law suggesting he won't re-sign with the team that gets him.

Why on earth would any GM expect that to come cheap? Why would any GM expect Teixeira not to make a huge difference?

by hightowersmith on Jun 5, 2007 12:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

lester

has increased his value since the arod trade

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on Jun 5, 2007 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree

The only way this happens is if 1-3 gm's (the more the merrier - for us at least) fall in love with him and have that "got to get him" mentality. JD has to hold out for at least a teams #1, almost ready to make the leap, starting pitching prospect, a solid 1b or outfield prospect, and a throw-in A prospect. He won't and shouldn't settle for less.

As a fan, I have no problem with watching Tex hit 60+ hrs and drive in 175+ runs and win 2 more gold gloves with the Rangers.

by Randy Richardson on Jun 5, 2007 2:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs