Don't trade anyone

by LukeR on Jul 1, 2007 9:58 PM CDT Comment 57 comments

Why should JD break up this team?

Gagne strikes me as a guy who walks what he talks. Sign him to a 2 year extension -- for 9 million/yr or whatever he's worth. How is any "prospect" going to be better than having the best bullpen in baseball for the next two years?

The offense has been fine this year, even with the injuries. We are #3 in runs scored in the AL. All the core bats will be back in 2008.

The starting pitching is starting to come around, and sweet bejeezus it can't be any worse next year. With Hurley at #5, plus Millwood / Mccarthy / Loe, 1 of Padilla / Tejeda or a free agent, the rotation should be adequate in 2008.

The defense seems to have recovered it's sanity. The infield and outfield defense should be at least average for the rest of the year, and in 2008.

This team could contend in 2008. They could have contended this year, but for the bizarre rotation and defensive breakdown in April/May. I say we'll finish with 82-85 wins in 2007. Not enough to win the division or wildcard, but something to build on for 2008.

Dismantling the best bullpen I've seen on this team in 22 years will not improve the team. Trading away Otsuka, or Gagne, or Tex for prospects will not help this team to compete in 2008, and probably not 2009.

The team chemistry is starting to gel behind Washington. Now is not the time to break it up. Our best chance at being competitive in 2009 is to keep the team together, make a playoff run in 2008, and sign Tex to a long term contract in the afterglow.

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ya know Luke...

you have some valid points there..I'd much rather do that then completely dismantle and start from scratch...we'll suck for several years if we do that and maybe even longer if things dont gel..and i think we're all sick and tired of losing..if everyone doesnt suck so bad next year and we get a top notch starter free agent and possibly a jermaine dye.. with Hurley and Loe, McCarthy, and Tejeda having the benefit of the rest of this season to figure it out..the Rangers should be in the thick of it next year again...
with that awesome bullpen especially...

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 1, 2007 10:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Just wanted to talk about the offense...

Currently we're 3rd in runs scored... but we're hitting collectively: .259/.327/.432

For this park, that's pretty horrible. The fact that we're hitting .288/.379/.460 with runners in scoring position is the reason we're scoring a lot of runs. And that's not something that's likely to carry on season to season. This offense is bad and is likely to get worse once everything evens out.

by chase1971 on Jul 1, 2007 10:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

nah the offense will get wayyy better..

in the second half.. Michael Young is almost back to being Michael Young after a horrible start..Tex is historically a major stud in the second half.. Cat isnt going to continue hitting
.205 ...you dont have nellie cruz here hitting
.188 anymore..the Bryds doing an amazing job to offset that..Laird is starting to get hot.. he'll finish strong i bet..I think the best is yet to come offensively...this team was REALLY bad the first several weeks..

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 1, 2007 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I agree. What I meant was, if left as it is, it's likely we won't be scoring as many runs since our OPS with runners in scoring position will likely go down.

But with those bats returning, it'll probably offset a lot of that. Unless of course we trade Teixeira, Lofton etc...

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 1:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay

but you've also got to think that guys like Frank Catalanatto and Brad Wilkerson are going to hit higher than .210 for the rest of the season as well. Hank blalock has been injured for much of the season now and from what we saw from Ian kinsler earlier this year and last year, you've go to beleive that he will hit better than .240 the rest of the way. Kenny lofton has been on a tear lately and his record shows nothing that says he can't hit for a .300 avg. So while Marlon byrd won't be hitting .370 for the next 80 games. And Sammy Sosa won't be hitting .360 with RISP the rest of the year, I think the offense will continue to run well with a healthy line-up.

by Lonerangers on Jul 1, 2007 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeh theres tons of reasons to think...

that it will only get better..hitting is contagious.. once a couple guys get hot.. the others usually follow.. because the pressure is much less to be the hero every night when you have
several who could be..i think thats part of the problem in the early going..everyone was doing so bad.. that everyone was wanting to be the hero and thats when you mess up the most.. not relaxed enough at the plate AND in the field..

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 1, 2007 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

... and making the managment transition

from Buck to Washington's baseball philosophy.

It all added up to some uptight team chemistry, and uptight play.

Now you keep hearing one guy after another say how much they are enjoying playing together. Sure, winning makes it fun, but having fun makes for winning.

The last time we had this kind of chemistry going was in 2004. The Delucci and Soriano trades made a major dent in the team chemistry in 2005... it's just now starting to recover.

That's my theory anyway, and I'm sticking to it.

by LukeR on Jul 1, 2007 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well it won't get better by trading Tex

I agree that the current offensive lineup is playing over its head.

But when Tex and Blalock get back, it's a legitimately solid offense.

All that matters is how many runs you score -- if you do that by having clutch hitters like Young and Sosa step it up when men are on base, so be it.

Young is a prime example of how a high RISP average can be sustained year after year.

by LukeR on Jul 1, 2007 10:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What are you smoking?

I want some. Points:

Gagne/bullpen: There is enough young talent in this bullpen to survive and even thrive without Gagne. It would be irresponsible and foolish not to trade him if the return will help another area of the team get stronger.
The offense has not been fine, though it has not been the biggest problem. The outfield needs serious upgrading if this team is going to contend this year, and you can't fix it solely in free agency. As chase1971 said up there the offense is not going to continue to be 3rd in runs with the numbers they're putting up.
the starting pitching should be adequate, but not stellar next year. They have pitched way below their talent level in the first half. That's why the primary targets in trades should be outfielders, not pitchers.

Trade no one and this team has to spend a gazillion dollars this offseason to become the Chicago Cubs and waste yet another year trying to cobble together a "competitive" club instead of a long-term winner.

by t ball on Jul 1, 2007 10:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The entire "trade to rebuild" strategy

was formed when the team was playing like crap. In the last 3 weeks we seem to have turned that around. Time to reevaluate strategy.

The whole point of making moves is to improve the team's chances of winning in the next 2/3 years, and I say hanging on to a stellar closer like Gagne, who wants to play for Texas, plus the best setup man the team has ever had in my 20+ years of fandom -- is the best way to do that.

Unless someone will give us a #2 or #3 starter for Gagne -- and not some unproven 23 year-old "potential" starter, or even worse a 19 year old "prospect" like Kershaw who has about a 50% chance of ever playing an inning in the bigs, then we are not improving this team with that trade. We are folding our tail between our legs and slinking off into the crapdom that we've been dwelling in for the entire millenium.

For a team as abysmal as this one has been in the last 20 years, we have an amazing track record of trading away good players who we could retain for bad players or "potential" prospects that don't pan out. Cf. Chris Young, Soriano, Hafner, Duchscherer, Nen, Sosa... etc.

Anyone who thinks we should be making trades now aiming to win in 2010 is truly burning the midnight stash.

The current outfield of Byrd, Cat/Wilk/Diaz, and Lofton, is an average to above average AL outfield.

The offense is a top 5 offense and will continue to be so in 2008, unless we trade Tex. The offense will not get better by trading Tex or Gagne, unless we get someone that hits better than Tex. That seems unlikely. So why not keep Tex for the next 1 1/2 years?

The best way to support the passably average rotation that the team will likely have next year, is to maintain the awesome bullpen we currently have, and not trade away its best pieces.

by LukeR on Jul 1, 2007 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

great rebuttal Luke !

yep lets not get any more of those "potential" players that never pan out when you have the best reliever in baseball right in your face and he likes it here..I love C J but he'll never be a Gagne.. hes best as a set up man.. Frankie too erratic to be closer.. what a great thing it would be to have a solid starting staff next year with the bullpen that we have.. next years going to be a whole new ball game..with Hurley..and the experience that Loe, McCarthy, Tejeda..gain from this year..Millie and Padilla have to get better ..period ! and lets not rule out the strong possiblity of signing a number 1 starter...finally..
The outfield needs another piece..perhaps a jermaine dye...in right with byrd in center and cat in left..cat will be back to his old self.. this is a fluke..hes been too good too long ..
however if the Rangers get offered a front line starter in a trade for Gagne.. I could see going for that but ...no wanna bes !

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 1, 2007 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dye

he is your solution to the Rangers outfield problems? You do know his numbers are worse than Wilkerson's right now, don't you?

by t ball on Jul 1, 2007 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

offense

The current outfield of Byrd, Cat/Wilk/Diaz, and Lofton, is an average to above average AL outfield

Now you are really smoking something. That outfield is struggling to be average offensively (especially given the park factor) and is below average defensively. The Rangers outfield has been the worst in baseball this year offensively. Lofton and Byrd have been doing well (though I'm not sure Byrd can maintain this level for much longer); Diaz is ok, but doesn't walk, and Cat, Wilk, Cruz have all been absolutely terrible.

This pitching staff could really use better defense and a significant upgrade in production from the corners to make it competitive next year.

by t ball on Jul 1, 2007 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok, but do we get that outfield upgrade

by trading Gagne, or Tex, for prospects? Not in 2008. Maybe in 2009 or 2010. If we get lucky.

Cruz was terrible and is in the minors where he belongs.

After a terrible April, Cat is hitting .267/.340/.453. Still below his very consistent career OPS of .810 but not by much.

There are at least 5 teams outfields in the AL I would pass on for Lofton/Cat/Byrd (with Wilk/Diaz as 4th outfielder). Royals, O's, Minnesota, A's, Yankees. That makes us average. Above average is probably a stretch.

by LukeR on Jul 2, 2007 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe trade Aki and Mahay...

for a centerfielder... that way you still have
Benoit, C J , Frankie, and Gagne and maybe Murray next year.. still a great group intact..
Tex they may have to trade..if you can get a solid first baseman and a stud starting pitcher...
then from those 2 trades.. you get your starter and your centerfielder.. which would be a big improvement..and you still have Gagne..the best reliever in baseball ..

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 2, 2007 2:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gagne

How do you guarantee that Gagne resigns with us?

by Randy Richardson on Jul 2, 2007 2:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats the kicker ...

John Boy needs to have a chat with him ..and see where hes at...if the words back up his actions..thats number one.. to make sure that he REALLY wants to stay with the Rangers and if possibly get the deal in the works if hes being honest..why wait..

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 2, 2007 2:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gagne

Gagne's a Boras client. Boras is known for taking his guys to the market and getting great contracts for them.

by Randy Richardson on Jul 2, 2007 2:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeh i know..

hes not gonna be cheap but its nice to have the inside track..

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 2, 2007 2:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best Reliever in baseball...

Really?

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 2:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure ..theres no reason ..

why Gagne can't return to his previous form...with that amazing change up he doesnt need to throw 98 anymore..hes still highly effective..we havent seen him on a regular basis because the team has sucked and they've been using him with caution in the early going..but yeh i think Gagne can save ya 40 to 50 games again.. like the Gagne of old..who saved 84 games in a row...

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 2, 2007 2:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't believe

people are on board with this.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jul 1, 2007 10:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I guess it boils down to 2008

Can this team, with the players we have now, plus a potential free agent or two, win in 2008?

I was one of those who thought winning was possible in 2007.

The slump we had in May was strange... Millwood and Padilla getting bombed start after start, balls in the infield getting booted left and right, Nelson Cruz struggling for the Mendoza line... But it's over now, and the team is playing like many of us thought it would.

Shouldn't we be better in 2008? That is, unless we trade away our best players, hoping that some prospects from the Dodger farm system will somehow rise to the level of the players we traded away in 2-4 years?

by LukeR on Jul 1, 2007 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't

think there was any way that we would win more games than the Mavericks this year when I saw what we were trotting out there this year.

They've outperformed overall what I thought that they would do. There's no way this team can contend next year. Isn't the goal to win the world series?

This team isn't anywhere close to a World Series team.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jul 2, 2007 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You really...

thought this was a 100 loss team at the start of the season?

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 1:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

Lofton - didn't think he would be as good as he's been
Cat - Thought he would be better
MY - about what I thought
Tex - Thought we would trade him
Sosa - A little better than what I thought
Cruz - About what I thought he would do
Wilk - About what I thought he would do
Kinsler - About what I thought
Laird - About what I thought

I didn't think that the rotation would be as bad as it has been, but the offense has been better than I thought. I knew that the bullpen would be good, but I didn't think that it would matter.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jul 2, 2007 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Starting rotation

went from a 5.11 last season to a 6.49 currently.

I don't know how bad you thought it was going to be, but if it wasn't for the rotation, we wouldn't be at all that close to losing 100 games.

Of course, I'm surprised that we currently still aren't on pace to lose 100 games with the rotation and offense we've been running out there lately.

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Competing

The AL is stocked with very good teams and the Rangers are just average. I think if we were in the NL we could compete for at least the wild card every year. But we compete against tougher competition.

Starting pitching - the Angels have Weaver, Escobar, Santana, and Lackey through at least 09. The Tigers have Bonderman, Verlander, Robertson, and Miller through at least 09. We aren't anywhere near competing with that level of starting pitching.

The AL also has the two richest teams - the Yankees and Red Sox who will continue to buy themselves seriously competitive teams year in and year out.

The good part about this year is that it told us that we need more than band-aids. We need more talent.

by Randy Richardson on Jul 1, 2007 11:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ah Luke...

The homer force is strong in this one...

by ghostofErikThompson on Jul 2, 2007 3:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

diaries like these

downright scary. also the reason why hicks has been scared to blow it up - the modest of streaks makes everyone want to hold on to aging veterans.

question: wasn't this the plan all along? if you win with the veterans this year, great. If not, you have great trade chips. So then, why the hell are we holding on to our trade chips when we're not going to win?

anyway, i'm not worried because i doubt anybody in the front office shares this view of trying to re-sign gagne.

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on Jul 2, 2007 8:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

the only veteran trade chip we have is gagne

who is 31 years old. Not an aging veteran.

Sosa and Lofton have little to no trade value.

This is not a team of aging veterans. The infield is still one of the youngest in baseball. It's a team with a crappy rotation and a good offense, like it always has been.

The one difference from most Ranger teams in the past is that we finally have a solid bullpen, with a mix of young guys and veterans, who could be around for several more years.

So, of course, we should break up the pen -- why build on your strengths?

by LukeR on Jul 2, 2007 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

lofton has no trade value

are you sure?

and why is it that everybody loves sosa but then nobody wants to trade for him?

and there are other trade chips that might nto be aging veterans, but they do have a lot of value.

and the reason you trade your bullpen is because no team ever did well with a mediocre offense, terrible starting pitching and a great bullpen - which is exactly the team the rangers would be sporting next year.

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on Jul 2, 2007 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the offense is not mediocre

this year, and there is no reason to think it would be next year, with most of the same bats returning.

That is, unless we trade Tex.

by LukeR on Jul 2, 2007 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

offense

i beg to differ. they have a tendency to run up the score to skew their overall output but even stats show they are mediocre, given their ballpark

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on Jul 2, 2007 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

they are a less than mediocre offense that has overachieved a little. And to their credit, have found a way to score runs without being that good.

There's no way that this exact group will be better next year.

Lofton - won't repeat what he's doing right now
Sosa - ditto
Byrd - No way he'll continue where he is at

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jul 2, 2007 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep luke you're right...

31 years old is hardly an aging veteran..especially with a guy who relies on a changeup and is such a master at "pitching"..hes got plenty of years left in him.. as in 50 save a year years..lets not lose sight of that..and wind up with some useless guy like we did with the soriano trade...

GayRangerFan

by RangerDisaster on Jul 2, 2007 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LUKE

...i appreciate your optimism, man...

it's been pretty refreshing... these last couple of weeks. and i'm really proud of our boys...

everybody... i repeat... EVERYBODY on this team is contributing... the starting pitching is giving us a chance to win... the bullpen has been absolutely sharp... the lineup is coming through in the clutch... everytime the opposition scores, we come right back at 'em... against the 'stros... the tigers, and now the bo-sox...

straight up... we're playing like a contender right now... and doing so against some of the best... unfortunately, we got off to a bad start, and it's going to take more than a miracle to come back from that...

i get so sick of logging into LSB and reading all the negative bullshit... usually headed by Morris. it's like even when this team is playing above par, people want to play the blame game, and talk trades... and pull out these absurd numbers...

it's like, look what you have in front of you... f' the past... f' the future... play for the now... play to get back to .500... play to prove all these twats wrong...

and i hope they do.

No Miller... No Hughes... No Dice.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 11:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

word up OC

by LukeR on Jul 2, 2007 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...

this team currently if it weren't for the bad start is a contender?

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

DON'T BE AN IDIOT

... you know damn well that if the starting pitching had given us a chance to win in May... and if the hitters had started clicking from the get-go... we'd be in the thick of things. maybe not the West... but, at the very least, they'd be in the Wild Card hunt...

but, that's neither here nor there. i don't waste my time with ands, ifs, or buts.

Numbers don't mean shit.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wild Card...

The wild card leaders currently have the 4th best record in the AL. Right now we have the 3rd worst record in the AL.

If we would have gone 20-9 in May instead of a 9 and 20, we'd be tied with Seattle.

You think this club is able to go 20-9 in July?

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have an answer

unless you take a sample size of the rangers 10 best games, its pretty hard to extrapolate a wild card team even from the recent success.

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on Jul 2, 2007 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

AGAIN

i don't waste my time with ands, ifs, or buts.

anything is possible.

Numbers don't mean shit.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anything is possile...

That's correct. Except using that logic can jeopardize our future successes.

Obviously we won't play 29 games in July, but if we win 10 more than we lose, I'd be absolutely stunned. And if we did that, we still wouldn't be close to making the playoffs.

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I DON'T CARE ABOUT THE PLAYOFFS

... our first objective was to put a string of wins together. we've done that.

... our next goal was to put a couple of series wins together. we've done that also.

... we've held our ground, very well i must add, against one of the best teams in the Central. and one of the best in the East.

... the upcoming Angels series is crucial. if we can take at least two away from them at home, i'll be extremely proud of this team.

but, first things first. let's take 3 of 4 from Boston.

Numbers don't mean shit.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah now I see...

You don't want to look ahead to the future.

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LIVE IN THE PRESENT

plan for the future...

we already know what our plan for the future is. we can trade off what we can, and HOPE for the best possible return...

you can draft the best high-school player with the 17th pick, and HOPE for the best possible return...

you can talk stats and numbers all day just to qualify your argument, and HOPE that it all amounts to something later on...

OR... you can just put on your cap, run out there and give it your best.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather plan for the future..

by trading guys at the deadline for prospects.

by chase1971 on Jul 2, 2007 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ESPECIALLY

...the way we're playing right now.

Numbers don't mean shit.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

AND YOU KNOW WHAT?

...i'm glad this team fell on it's face like it did.

comebacks are the sweetest revenge, because there's always that initial doubt. but, when you work your way out of it... like the rangers appear to be doing... it speaks volumes about the character of this team... the maturation.

wash is making better decisions. the bullpen is pitching it's heart out. michael's coming around... marlon byrd has been effin' money. kam loe has put together a good string of solid outings. even brad wilkerson, who has been my least favorite of them all, has made substantial contributions... (yesterday for example, and that 3 run homer in detroit)

Numbers don't mean shit.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so

you expect the Rangers to be competing for the wild card?

forgive me for saying this, but you are exactly the type of fan that goes missing around september.

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on Jul 2, 2007 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LISTEN DUDE...

...i never said we WERE a contender. i said, we're playing LIKE one. right now. in this stretch.

get your facts straight.

Numbers don't mean shit.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

FURTHERMORE

... i am not a bandwagon fan.

i was born at arlington memorial in '81. i've lived in arlington all my life. i'll probably die here. i've followed this team ever since the Valentine era... and i will continue to follow them.

i go to the ballpark for entertaiment. to escape, and pretend like i'm one of the guys in the clubhouse.

you don't need to doubt where my honor lies.

Numbers don't mean shit.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

HA

i meant to say...

you don't need to doubt where my loyalties lie.

i'll be at the ballpark in september... whether it be to watch a pennant chase, or to watch the rooks play their hearts out.

Numbers don't mean shit.

by oc on Jul 2, 2007 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Man

I admire your optimism, and I feel the same way about the club on the field.

But keeping the roster together and letting them feel good about themselves isn't gonna help us in the long run, when Gagne, Tex, Lofton, Sosa, et cetera are gone. If we don't get value for them now, this will be a worse team in the future.

by a bebop a rebop on Jul 2, 2007 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs