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Defense All-Stars

the following was taken from the John Dewan Stat of the Week e-mail for this week (also found at http://www.actasports.com/sows.php)... Not surprisingly, no Ranger regulars on the list, but Kam Loe gets on the list among pitchers.


Who are the 2007 defensive All-Stars (thus far)?

July 18, 2007

In The Fielding Bible I introduced a new way to quantify defensive contributions called the Plus/Minus System. The book covered every 2005 defensive player other than pitchers and catchers using Plus/Minus and a variety of other defensive metrics.

The Bill James Handbook 2007 published the Plus/Minus leaderboards for the 2006 season (adding pitchers for the first time) and the 2008 version will publish the Plus/Minus leaderboards for the 2007 season. But how about a preview now?

The recent All-Star Game tried to bring together 2007's best players. Let's take a look at the best players from a defensive standpoint thus far this year. Here are the 2007 Plus/Minus defensive leaderboards (through games of Monday, July 16).

First Basemen

Name     Team     PM
Albert Pujols     StL     +25
Casey Kotchman     LAA     +13
Ryan Klesko     SF     +10
Kevin Youkilis     Bos     +8
Ryan Shealy     KC     +8

Second Basemen

Name     Team     PM
Chase Utley     Phi     +16
Aaron Hill     Tor     +13
Mark Ellis     Oak     +12
Howie Kendrick     LAA     +10
Brandon Phillips     Cin     +8
Kaz Matsui     Col     +8

Third Basemen

Name     Team     PM
Pedro Feliz     SF     +21
David Wright     NYM     +15
Scott Rolen     StL     +13
Aramis Ramirez     ChC     +13
Adrian Beltre     Sea     +12

Shortstops

Name     Team     PM
Troy Tulowitzki     Col     +22
Adam Everett     Hou     +17
Jack Wilson     Pit     +12
Omar Vizquel     SF     +12
Jason Bartlett     Min     +12

Left Fielders

Name     Team     PM
Shannon Stewart     Oak     +11
Matt Holliday     Col     +10
Geoff Jenkins     Mil     +9
Adam Lind     Tor     +8
Emil Brown     KC     +8

Center Fielders

Name     Team     PM
Andruw Jones     AtL     +22
Carlos Beltran     NYM     +16
Curtis Granderson     Det     +14
Coco Crisp     Bos     +13
Alfredo Amezaga     Fla     +8
Ryan Church     Was     +8

Right Fielders

Name     Team     PM
Andre Ethier     LAD     +16
Carlos Quentin     Ari     +10
Austin Kearns     Was     +9
Alex Rios     Tor     +8
Magglio Ordonez     Det     +7
Corey Hart     Mil     +7

Pitchers

Name     Team     PM
Greg Maddux     SD     +5
Jon Garland     ChW     +5
Kameron Loe     Tex     +5
Five Tied With         +4

The worst defensive player thus far this year: Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez at -23. Derek Jeter is a close second at -21.

By the way, I've been asked the same question many times: When will the next edition of The Fielding Bible come out? Answer: Not this year, but likely next year. The reason: We're working on a new book that will take time away from doing a Fielding Bible this year. The new book is called The Bill James Gold Mine. Keep an eye out for it next spring.

Short description of the Plus/Minus System:

The Fielding Bible contains a detailed explanation of the Plus/Minus System, but here is a summary.

The plus/minus figure of +25 for Albert Pujols means that he made 25 more plays than could be expected from an average first baseman. This +25 is determined by looking at each play hit in his direction and comparing what Pujols does with that play compared to all other first basemen.

Every time a fielder catches a ball and gets the out, he receives a fraction between 1 and 0. If it was a difficult play, he gets a larger fraction. An easy play, a smaller fraction. That fraction is determined by what percentage of times that same play is made by all players at that position, in the same location of the field, and on a ball hit just as hard. The higher the percentage (easier play), the lower the fractional award for the defensive play. The lower the percentage (harder play), the higher the factional award.

Every time a fielder fails to make the play, he gets a negative version of that same fraction.

We add up all these fractions and round the number to an integer to create their Plus/Minus at that position (some guys play multiple positions in one season). A final Plus/Minus number around zero indicates an average performance.

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments

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meh
The problem with this is that it's a counting stat, and it seems to equate a good defensive play with getting an out (only).  What about other factors, like arm strength, or range?

It seems to me that if Hanley Ramirez were to field a ball behind second base, but not get an out, he'd be penalized, whereas if Michael Young were to watch the same ball roll into CF it wouldn't affect his rating.  Am I getting that right?

by rubbersoul103 on Jul 18, 2007 11:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This is true, a little bit
but the obvious answer is that Hanley (or Reyes, because Ramirez is generally considered a terrible defender by everyone who watches him) will make more plays over the course of the season on that ball, if he keeps getting over there.  Young's never gonna get there, so no extra plays for him.

The extreme example is a SS with amazing range who never can actually make the play outside a "normal" SS range -- always throws it away, boots it, whatever.  He wouldn't get any points over a Young slow-but-steady type, but he doesn't really deserve the points either if he's not making the plays.

by a bebop a rebop on Jul 19, 2007 3:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

counting stat
It is a counting stat in that it is playing time dependent, but not in the way you suggest.

If Hanley Ramirez gets to a ball and fails to get an out it would be treated exactly the same as a ball hit exactly the same direction that Mike Young watches go into CF. No negative to either. You get a positive for making the play (and in the case you suggest it would be closer to 1 since it is a difficult play), but there is not a penalty as I understand it.

by Brandon Wilson on Jul 19, 2007 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are negatives.
Notice Derek Jeter's rating.

by DJCahill on Jul 19, 2007 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

your right
but I still think my comment that the Ramirez making the stop but not making the out and Young not getting to it being treated the same way (from a negative standpoint) is still accurate.

I guess the way they do it is something like this. If the play on a ball hit a certain way is made 70% of the time, then if you make the play you get a +.3 if you miss it you get a -.7.

I don't know how to do a table, but it would be something like this.
Made 1/ Miss 0    % of time made    + / -
1    90%    0.1
1    95%    0.05
1    98%    0.02
1    50%    0.5
0    70%    -0.7
1    95%    0.05
0    30%    -0.3
5    5.28    -0.28  TOTALS

by Brandon Wilson on Jul 19, 2007 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could always
divide by 9IP if you wanted a rate stat.

by DJCahill on Jul 19, 2007 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chase Utley
What a pimp.
loves me some "loves me some"

by trza on Jul 18, 2007 11:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Can you post the defensive ratings for the Rangers
I just wonder how some of our guys stack up.
"I'm an aggressive guy, I'm not a guy who's going to go up there and swing like a girl." - Sammy Sosa

by cgolden on Jul 19, 2007 7:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I figured they would be but I was just curious
about a couple of guys like Metcalf, Byrd and a couple others (if they have enough starts to even matter).
"I'm an aggressive guy, I'm not a guy who's going to go up there and swing like a girl." - Sammy Sosa

by cgolden on Jul 19, 2007 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats
The defensive stats referenced are not published for free by anyone as far as I know. They are proprietary to Baseball Info Solutions who sell the data to teams and probably a number of internet companies. BIS is kind of like the old STATS Inc., in fact that's where John Dewan started if I remember correctly.

I am not 100% sold on this stat, but the value in it is that they (BIS) more accurately calculate the direction of the ball and speed of the ball than just about anyone out there, so if they say only 40% of SS could have made that play, I tend to believe them. Just not sure how it accounts for defensive positioning and that sort of thing.

by Brandon Wilson on Jul 19, 2007 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Free
Actually I think these are the same stats that The Hardball Times posted a couple of weeks ago.  I can't seem to find the article, but I posted a diary with the Rangers' stats:

http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2007/6/14/114640/239

by t ball on Jul 19, 2007 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep
That does look like the same stats, but I can't find a site that offers it regularly... THT does not have it on their defensive stats page, although they do have RZR (revised zone rating) and OOZ (outside of zone) which are two good measures.

by Brandon Wilson on Jul 19, 2007 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know, the funny thing is
Any time my wife tells me I am too obsessed with Baseball, I can always shoot her this link.

I really, really don't mean that as a shot at anybody. Seriously, while I am frequently a sarcastic smartass, no humor was intended.

All I'm saying is, I only thought I was a basball fanatic.

You guys big, me little...

If the Scoot stays mute, you must commute.

by Brian Thomas on Jul 19, 2007 7:27 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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