Michael Young, Picking Machine?
One of the most common complaints against Michael Young since he moved to shortstop is that he's not a good defensive player. He has the arm, of course, but his range has been consistently knocked as sub-par since moving over to short after the ARod trade.
Young's defensive stats were improved last year, although there was some question about whether that was a real change, or just a fluke, so I figured I'd take a look at where he stands now.
BP's defensive stats put Young at 11 runs above average so far this year. To put this into context, he was at 24 runs above average by BP's metrics last year, after being 16 and 14 runs below average the previous two years.
BP's defensive stats have been criticized because they aren't play-by-play based, but are extricated from the whole, and I'm not all that confident in their reliability...so while that's a decent starting point, I'd rather look more deeply into some other play-by-play generated numbers.
The Hardball Times has a couple of stats that, factored together, give a good snapshot of range...Revised Zone Rating (or RZR) and Out of Zone (or OOZ). RZR evaluates how many balls within a fielder's zone the fielder gets to, and OOZ calculates how many balls outside of a fielder's zone the fielder gets to. Dave Studeman gives a good breakdown of RZR and OOZ in this piece, which also provides for a back-of-the-envelope approximation of THT's defensive +/- ratings.
Looking at RZR, Young grades out pretty well, coming in at 3rd in the A.L. and 9th in the majors in RZR.
If we look at RZR and OOZ together to get a +/- for Young, and compare him to the rest of the regular shortstops in the league, we get this:
| Name | Balls in Zone | Plays Made on BIZ | OOZ Plays | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulowitzki | 258 | 224 | 53 | 13.44 |
| Everett | 153 | 133 | 34 | 9.36 |
| Vizquel | 236 | 212 | 26 | 8.32 |
| Reyes | 223 | 200 | 23 | 6.8 |
| Greene | 232 | 201 | 36 | 6.08 |
| Furcal | 225 | 192 | 38 | 4.56 |
| Tejada | 168 | 144 | 28 | 3.84 |
| Wilson | 259 | 215 | 52 | 3.44 |
| Pena | 233 | 193 | 44 | 1.36 |
| Gonzalez | 201 | 170 | 27 | -0.72 |
| Hardy | 197 | 158 | 39 | -2.96 |
| Young | 232 | 195 | 29 | -3.04 |
| Lugo | 203 | 164 | 37 | -3.44 |
| Crosby | 243 | 201 | 36 | -3.6 |
| Bartlett | 220 | 176 | 43 | -4 |
| Drew | 212 | 170 | 38 | -5.12 |
| Renteria | 218 | 177 | 34 | -5.6 |
| Harris | 180 | 142 | 30 | -7.68 |
| Guillen | 224 | 181 | 29 | -9.44 |
| Cabrera | 211 | 168 | 29 | -10.48 |
| Rollins | 255 | 203 | 39 | -10.8 |
| Betancourt | 231 | 185 | 27 | -12.72 |
| Peralta | 243 | 186 | 41 | -15.6 |
| Uribe | 232 | 182 | 28 | -16 |
| Jeter | 256 | 200 | 25 | -21.28 |
| Ramirez | 223 | 167 | 22 | -25.36 |
So Young comes in 12th out of 26th in +/-, at around 3 runs below average so far. It is worth noting that this is a measurement of range, and thus doesn't factor in things like turning the double play or the arm on relay throws.
But still, by this measurement, Young is an acceptable defensive shortstop...a far cry from where he was a couple of years ago.
It is interesting to note that Young's increased range the past couple of years has been in conjunction with his power numbers dropping off...I'm wondering if Young made the decision to get small in order to be able to cover more ground in the field, sacrificing some power to help his defense.
If Young fields like this, and hits like he did last year, he's a quality shortstop. If he fields like this and hits like he has this year, of course, he's not...he's a below-average starting shortstop.
But it is a bit reassuring to see that he does seem to be making strides with his defense, which will hopefully allow him to stay at the position for the life of his contract...
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jeter
better get another gold glove out.
as for MY... looks like any real power is gone for good.. and thats going to hurt when you are paying him 16 mil a year. but yeah.. if he can at least get back to 06 levels it wont be THAT bad.
glad to see his defense grades well. i havnt noticed many particularly bad plays lately. early in the season there were a lot of balls i thought he should have gotten to but for the past 2 months or so he has seemed pretty solid.
Tulowitzki
Tulo
by Brandon Wilson on Jul 20, 2007 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
i think his contract has
"If Young fields like this, and hits like he did last year, he's a quality shortstop. If he fields like this and hits like he has this year, of course, he's not...he's a below-average starting shortstop."
I don't think he's below average. No he hasn't lived up anywhere near his contract. But if you ask me he never has and never will. It's gonna be hard for a player of his caliber to be able to justify getting paid 16 mil a year.
It's kind of like giving rusty greer a ridiculous 80 million dl. contract. The guy is a fan favorite and a stand up guy around the community but he just doesn't do enough to warrant this huge amount of money. If i'm going to be giving a 16 million dollar contract to anybody. Its going to be to the carlos lee's and mark teixeira's of the world.
Well
He's been a little below average defensively this year, by these numbers. Even if you give him a little bonus for turning the DP, he's about average.
Offensively, he's been below average, even for a shortstop.
So if he hits like this and fields like this, he's a below average starting shortstop.
by Adam J. Morris on Jul 20, 2007 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions
sure he's below average offensively this year
ops+
Ramirez - 146
Guillen - 143
jeter - 135
Renteria - 130
Reyes - 123
Peralta - 118
Rollins - 117
Harris - 114
Hardy - 111
Cabrera - 110
Tejada - 108
Tulowitzki -103
Greene - 96
young - 91
Gonzalez - 87
Betancourt - 87
Furcal - 86
Bartlett - 76
Wilson - 74
Pena - 70
Drew - 69
Crosby - 65
Lugo - 58
Uribe - 56
Everett - 55
Vizquel - 53
13 better, 12 worse. i'd say that's average, but technically, it's below average.
but i see the point. with his salary, he better be a) above average offensively and defensively OR b) be WAY above average offensviely or c) be WAY above average defensively
he is neither of those. i think he'll move up on that list a little before the end of the season
Is it out of the question to think that
For those of us that aren't total stat...
I know computer technology can track things like pitch location, etc., but are there programs out there that help the people calculating RZR and OOZ (two terms I'd never heard of before AJM's post) to determine if something is in or out of a zone? I'd assume these zones are defined as being X number of feet on either side of the player, but from batter to batter and pitch to pitch this zone can move significantly, so I don't grasp how these calculations can be properly calculated to give an accurate assessment of skill.
To me, if these zones are determined by computer, they'd have to know EXACTLY where the player was positioned at each pitch, while they'd be guesstimated, at best, if done by people watching the game in person or on TV...
Maybe I'm just being "vacant" in my thinking, but the light bulb ain't goin' on for me when these types of stats are discussed...
young
by dubman @ Lone Star Ball on Jul 20, 2007 2:44 PM CDT reply actions

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