BP on shortstop prospects

by Brandon Wilson on Aug 10, 2007 12:56 PM CDT

Kevin Goldstein has posted his rankings of shortstop prospects over at Baseball Prospectus. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6574
Has this to say on Rangers prospects:

9. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
Age: 19.0
Hitting: .244/.330/.335 at High-A (99 G, Carolina League); .240/.321/.280 at High-A (6 G, California League)
Scouts still love the tools, but the high praise for Andrus as a player is down from where it was two years ago, when he was the talk of the Gulf Coast League. Yes, he's exceedingly young, but at the same time, he's never put up good numbers. His approach is advanced for his age, and he's a very good runner, but he's shown almost zero ability to drive the ball, and scouts no longer speak of any kind of power projection. Defensively, he has excellent range and a rocket arm, but is still prone to the usual inconsistency one finds in teenage infielders, being charged with 28 errors on the season. Andrus has always been the subject of much hype--some of it justified, some... not so much.
..................................................
Keep An Eye On
Marcus Lemon, Rangers: Yes, this is Chet Lemon's son, who signed for $1 million as a fourth-round pick last year. He has tools and athleticism and makeup, and after a slow start at Low-A Clinton, Lemon is still hitting just .260/.347/.339, but you can up that to .293/.370/.378 in his last 60 games.

not exactly rave reviews for Andrus, but he is in the top 10.... nice to see Lemon mentioned.

Tweet Comment 25 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

He still sounds like

Joaquin Arias Part II.

by DJCahill on Aug 10, 2007 12:51 PM CDT reply actions

For one thing, he'll take a walk. For another, he's that much younger, making his lack of game power more excusable. And for another, I go back to his splits in the CL. Away from Myrtle beach he had an OBP of right at .400. Arias never does that, even in hitters parks.

by Brett Perryman on Aug 10, 2007 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions

So

What major league player would you say is Elvis' ceiling?

by hightowersmith on Aug 10, 2007 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions

My vote...

Edgar Renteria, with better defense.

by Adam J. Morris on Aug 10, 2007 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

hmmmm...

wouldn't that make him an upgrade to Michael Young at SS (in 2-3 years)?

If he does turn out that good, does this organization have the intestinal fortitude to make that kind of move (i.e. asking Young to change positions).

by Brandon Wilson on Aug 10, 2007 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm guessing...

...it will be 2011, at the earliest, before he's ready to be a major league regular.

He'll probably repeat high-A next season, then be in AA in 2009 and AAA in 2010.

He'll be 22 at the start of the 2011 season, so he'd still be pretty young, even if he repeats and then goes a level a year after that.

by Adam J. Morris on Aug 10, 2007 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Yah

I'm guessing next year will be his make or break year as far as his top prospectness is concerned.

He'll be repeating his league for the first time, and it'll be in the hitters heaven that is the California league.

I'm really looking forward to seeing how he does next year.

Gas, brake, honk. Gas, brake, honk. Honk, honk, punch. Gas, gas, gas.

by thedirkatron on Aug 10, 2007 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions

prediction

lights up the Cal League in the 1st half... promotes to Double-A and struggles mightily.

by Brandon Wilson on Aug 10, 2007 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Prediction Part Duex

He does well (but not great) in the first half next year, but then finds "it" and sets the crappy golden state league on fire in the second half.

I really hope he repeats the league for a whole year next year.

I almost never get attacked by birds. It's uncanny.

by thedirkatron on Aug 11, 2007 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions

By 2011...

yeah I think the club could make that change pretty easily considering Young will probably be a well below average shortstop by then.

by slimshadty12 on Aug 10, 2007 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions

ceiling

I think his ceiling is Jose Reyes/Hanley Ramirez and the odds of him being that good are probably greater than 50-1.

I'd be happy if he ends up somewhere between Lugo and Furcal.

by Brandon Wilson on Aug 10, 2007 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions

The Wizzard

I'm probably less excited about his offense than most but he really sounds like a potential exceptional defender. Every time you hear a game he steals a hit or comes really close to stealing one and gets rung up with an E (artificially deflating his %).

by bushe on Aug 10, 2007 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess he does

seem to be able to draw a walk. However, it will be interesting to see how that holds up at higher levels when they pitch to him.

by DJCahill on Aug 10, 2007 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Andrus v. Arias

Arias at age 18: 266/.306/.343 in low-A
Andrus at age 18: .243/.328/.330 in high-A

Andrus has a lower average, but a higher ISO and higher walk rate, than Arias did at the same age, and he's doing it at a higher level than Arias, while spending most of the season in a pretty extreme pitcher's park.

I think there's more reason to be optimistic about Andrus than there was about Arias...particularly since a lot of the hype about Arias centered around the belief that he'd fill out and start hitting for power, which never happened. I remember someone saying Arias could be Alfonso Soriano with gold glove defense...

by Adam J. Morris on Aug 10, 2007 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions

Goldstein

has never liked Andrus much. Let's see how he finishes August.

by Brett Perryman on Aug 10, 2007 12:51 PM CDT reply actions

Jason Cole saw Elvis ...

... http://rangers.scout.com/2/666855.html

Rangers Farm Probables

by shroomer on Aug 10, 2007 1:15 PM CDT reply actions

I really like Jason's articles

but $80 a year seems a bit steep.

Andrus sounds pretty mature for someone just shy of 19. I like his comments about his approach at the plate. Subero certainly sounds like an asset at this point in his development.

mmmmmm...64 slices of American cheese...

by t ball on Aug 10, 2007 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions

exactly

and hopefully as he matures even more, he'll start to care about offense a little bit more...but I have NO problem with him focusing on defense now and letting his body grow while gaining some good experience in at-bats

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Aug 10, 2007 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions

After that,

I'm really pulling for the kid. He sounds like an outstanding young man.

You're hijacking the thread and being repetitive. Move forward.

by Rodney on Aug 10, 2007 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't get how

he can say Andrus is exceedlingly young, has an advanced approach for his age, but then complain the numbers aren't there while ignoring the home-road splits Zywica mentioned (if we know about them, than Goldstein should). His patience at the plate separates him from Arias, same # of pro walks in half as many ABs.

Now, if his home-road splits are less severe in the Ranger system (as they should be) and his numbers don't trend up I might get a little worried in a year or so.

mmmmmm...64 slices of American cheese...

by t ball on Aug 10, 2007 1:20 PM CDT reply actions

Goldstein

I think Goldstein is a lot more likely to ask a scout what he thinks about Andrus, than dive into his stats and try to figure out if he has big home/road splits or ball park factors or platoon splits or anything like that.

I like reading what he says, but take it for what it is (second hand scout observations).

On Andrus, I know this has been mentioned elsewhere, but it is worth repeating. If he was an American kid, he would have graduated high school in May and then been drafted in June. How many HS shortstops have signed and are holding their own in High-A right now?

by Brandon Wilson on Aug 10, 2007 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions

typical....

Well he is in the Rangers organization now so we better devalue him.

If Hurley was in the yankees organization he would be a god.

by clinton33 on Aug 10, 2007 4:31 PM CDT reply actions

Not true

Andrus is falling in the rankings because he is hitting .240 this year. He is still young for the league and very talented, but you have to expect a player to fall when they hit less than .250, no matter how young they are for the league or how high their ceiling is.

by uthornfan on Aug 10, 2007 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Goldstein

Did a review of his top 100 this year. And he publicly said that the biggest mistake he made was ranking Justin Upton down at 30 because of his mediocre numbers. Said regardless of stats, a player that talented always comes out of it. So frankly, this is sort of surprising.
I'm not implying that Andrus is similar to Upton in talent level, but It's a similar situation.

sportsdeals.blogspot.com

by BudLight on Aug 10, 2007 5:23 PM CDT reply actions

And again

Andrus is in High A and is the age that Upton was last season when he was in scuffling a bit in Low A. And I can't stress the Myrtle Beach angle enough until we have enough to go on from more neutral parks - after, not before, his time in the Carolina League.

Oh, and while he hasn't hit for any power there, he's now hitting .324/.390/.351 for Bakersfield in 37 AB. As I said earlier, let's at least let August unfold before we make dismissive declarations about Andrus.

by Brett Perryman on Aug 12, 2007 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions