bp on Beavan

by kmacsm on Aug 7, 2007 12:17 PM CDT

kevin goldstien has an article up, detailing where all the first round picks stand in negotiations.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6554

it requires membership. but here is what he had to say on beavan.

"17. Rangers: Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS (Texas)
Advisor: Hendricks Sports
Status: Unsigned
Where It's At: The negotiations with Beavan have become a bit acrimonious, but it's nothing that can't be overcome. Prior to the draft, Beavan expected to go in the 11-13 range, and now he wants to be paid like that--namely, signing for somewhere around $1.7 million. The Rangers are holding firm to their slot offer of $1.4 million, knowing that they already will need to call the commissioner to go over slot with supplemental first-round picks Julio Borbon and Neil Ramirez. Like Bumgarner, Beavan is threatening to spend a year at a junior college, but like Bumgarner, he stands little to gain with such a gambit."

I'm pretty confident that he will break-down and sign. If he doesn't i won't loose much sleep over it. The rangers had so many picks in this draft that losing the first one just doesn't seem like a huge blow to the organization. Someone on this site posted a thing about hs pitchers, and it was really informative to me. so after reading that post i got the idea that beaven has like a 1-5 chance of making the bigs, and a 1-10 chance of being a an all-star.

seriously, is the 17th pick worth that much money?

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seriously, is the 17th pick worth that much money?

YES!

I stand corrected

by rkh on Aug 7, 2007 12:17 PM CDT reply actions

odds

I'd put the all star odds at about 1/25 at best but I'm no expert on such things. I really don't think we need Beaven (as much as he needs us) as it states since we have a pretty stocked arm stable in A and R without him. It sure would be nice to sign the local guy though.

And with all these top draft picks holding out (13 i think?) if half do and get drafted again next year well.... they probably go lower than this year not higher just due to #s

by bushe on Aug 7, 2007 12:18 PM CDT reply actions

Question

Is it Beavan himself that's being a bitch about it, or does his agent have anything to do with it? If it's the agent, can we call the agent a butt-head? Because then, we'd have Beavan and Butt-Head. Huh huh, huh huh.

by Inkara1 on Aug 7, 2007 12:22 PM CDT reply actions

Considering the comments he's made

I'd say it's him.

Must kill Moe, Wheeeee!

by Taylor on Aug 7, 2007 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions

using your figures

a 1 in 10 chance of being an All-Star isn't worth an extra $200,000? Using that figure, you could spend 2 million to get 6 years of an all-star SP. In the FA market that would run about $100 million, so the investment seems pretty sound to me.

I don't necessarily want the Rangers to just cave in and give the kid whatever he asks for, but it would be a huge mistake to not get him signed. The guy lives less than an hour from the ballpark, our scouts should have known exactly what it was going to take to get him signed - and if those demands were out of line, then he should never have been drafted.

Saltalamacchia: one player, six vowels.

by tricer on Aug 7, 2007 12:24 PM CDT reply actions

That's the best perspective

that I have read as to how we should proceed. My stance was that we should hold firm, take 17(B) next year, and not set a bad precedent for overslotting.

But, you just convinced me that it is totally worth it. Great analysis.

I'm on the Kam Loe Bandwagon, deal with it.

by inactive lsb user on Aug 8, 2007 2:39 AM CDT up reply actions

Ugh

It would be obscene if the Rangers didn't sign him.

He's local, even if he's an ass he's talented, and the money difference (however old man Selig reacts) is pocket lint.

Anyway it's academic. The Rangers will sign him and he'll go to fall instructs instead of pitching with Main. Whatever.

They might even sign him for their number.

Aaaaand Tommy Hunter is freed.

by hightowersmith on Aug 7, 2007 12:25 PM CDT reply actions

Don't blame the advisers on this one

The Hendricks brothers also represent #16 and #18 and they both signed for slot. The fact that their #17 guy hasn't signed (and is talking out of his butt about going #5 next year) tells me that the kid is blowing off his far more knowledgable advisers. Hubris. If the kid thinks that MLB clubs are going to assume he won't pull this routine next year he's sadly mistaken.

by mjh on Aug 7, 2007 12:32 PM CDT reply actions

yep

I smell greed and arrogance.

buffering....

by SteveP on Aug 7, 2007 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions

But

shouldn't the Rangers have known this about him going into the draft?

If he is a headcase with unreasonable demands, why in the world did we draft him? There were plenty of similar talents still on the board at that time.

Saltalamacchia: one player, six vowels.

by tricer on Aug 7, 2007 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions

still too early to criticize

i didn't read anything about him being a signing issue, though we did hear things about his attitude.

buffering....

by SteveP on Aug 7, 2007 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions

im not worried about beaven

its Ramirez and maybe borbon im worried about.....we need to get all the boys signed....we dont exactly have the farm, to say no to our draft picks, eccspecially high draft picks

by slash on Aug 7, 2007 12:34 PM CDT reply actions

Borbon

I'm concerned about Ramirez, but I'd rather Borbon not sign and we get that pick back next year.

by BCanfield @ Lone Star Ball on Aug 7, 2007 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions

idk

Borbon was the best college CF by far, not a big fan, but he could develop into sumthin good, he has the tools....id rather just sign him, instead of chancing it....hell we do need a CF and lead off guy

by slash on Aug 7, 2007 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Eh

If players like Juan Pierre are still getting contracts on the ML level, a guy like Borbon might have some value around the league...

He'll certainly come cheaper than Juan did.

Aaaaand Tommy Hunter is freed.

by hightowersmith on Aug 7, 2007 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

It seems like a dumb move by Beavan

Comparing signing now for $1.4 to signing a year from now for $1.7, that's only $300,000. Consider the time-value of money, and that drops to about $200,000. Factor in an injury risk while he's at college and $200,000 isn't worth it.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on Aug 7, 2007 12:35 PM CDT reply actions

i agree

no way he goes in the top 10 next yr.

by knockoutking24 on Aug 7, 2007 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Porcello

We didn't sign Porcello because of signability. And about 98% of you agreed, assuring me that we NEEDED this pick signed. Well? How odd it would be to lose Beavan over it. I'm just saying. Nothing is ever certain. We should have signed Porcello, the best pitcher in the Draft. And I can prove it on an etch-o-sketch.

by 3Bagger on Aug 7, 2007 1:37 PM CDT reply actions

i know

thats why i think he'll sign......there were two others that we didnt take cuz of signability, we coulda got em all if we wanted

by slash on Aug 7, 2007 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions

completely different

porcello wanted a MAJOR LEAGUE contract. that was the signability issue

do i think we should have drafted porcello? yes.

but we didnt.

by knockoutking24 on Aug 7, 2007 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd bet

that Porcello gets the largest signing bonus in the draft, but no ML contract. That was just a ploy to scare off undesirable teams like the Rangers and steer him to a preferable team, like the Tigers.

Saltalamacchia: one player, six vowels.

by tricer on Aug 7, 2007 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions

i doubt it

i think he gets his ML contract honestly.

by knockoutking24 on Aug 7, 2007 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Beaven

is a cocky asshole, someone needs to beat the shit out of him and his ego

by slash on Aug 7, 2007 1:52 PM CDT reply actions

I nominate you,

right after you're done with Eyre and that ump, since you're so violent this week.

mmmmmm...64 slices of American cheese...

by t ball on Aug 7, 2007 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions

lol

its just about that time.....after last nights game, and then this kid thinkin he's the next Rueben Mateo..........SHHHHHHHIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTT

by slash on Aug 7, 2007 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Matt Harvey

..he was at the top of my list and couldn't understand why we didn't pick him up.

Angels took him in the 3rd. He wont even talk to them...

I wish Beaven would post and defend himself.

by corbsclinton on Aug 7, 2007 2:20 PM CDT reply actions

yea

me too

if ANYONE knows him or knows someone who knows him PLEASE send him this way.

by knockoutking24 on Aug 7, 2007 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions

hard to type...

...with your fingers in a "K" sign.

Saltalamacchia: one player, six vowels.

by tricer on Aug 7, 2007 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions

lmao

by corbsclinton on Aug 7, 2007 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions

LOL

"The Summer of Suck"

by boomer1 on Aug 7, 2007 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Or just let him get redrafted

by a national league club... throw up his k in his first outing and then take a fastball to the noggin when he makes his first PA.

I thought he was a risky pick to begin with... yes he has great numbers in HS but his delivery mechanics tell me he'll be out of baseball for injury reasons before he's sniffed AA. Add his ego and you're looking at horrible mechanics with little to zero coachability. I honestly hope we hold the line on him because he has done nothing to suggest he'd be anything but T.O. with the Eagles minus the production.

by bstair on Aug 7, 2007 2:27 PM CDT reply actions

his mechanics..

I talked to a JC pitching coach about that after we drafted him and he had a guy he fixed that threw across his body like that. He got the the whip less exagerated and raised his arm slot. The velocity drop was less than 2mph and it made it his curve break more. He said that when a kid throws as hard as he does HS coaches and dads tend to leave his delivery completely alone so what it really comes down to is his coachability.

by corbsclinton on Aug 7, 2007 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions

And from his comments

his coachability seems to be a big fat ? at best and a sure fire "I'm the second coming of Cy Young/Nolan Ryan/etc.. all rolled into one." at worst. ... and he seems trending toward the latter.

by bstair on Aug 7, 2007 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Coachable

No one knows if he is coachable or not, because he has always dominated. If he goes out and strikes out 15 while allowed one hit and no runs every single start, how much does he need to be coached? It is also not like most high school coaches have the knowledge to fine tune or tweak pitching mechanics. My guess is that if he gets hit in the lower minors, he will start to make adjustments. How else will he reach the majors and buy enough bling complete his transformation to an Eminem clone?

by uthornfan on Aug 7, 2007 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Big Difference

Between treating baseball fan know it alls and media types like shit and like idiots and treating teammates and coaches that way. I bet 5 bucks he is a quiet yes sir, no sir kinda guy when he starts talking to rangers pitching gurus.

I also wouldnt be surprised if the rangers sent him to a higher level than he ought to be after he signs just so he gets pounded and humbled a bit.

i dont think any of us can judge on the coachability things just because he comes off as a prick in the media.

the same media that is generally in the rangers hip pocket. i just think so many of the fans here and at NMLR buy into the media marketing rangers pr machine its sick. whether its Sori or Tex or Draft Picks or whatever.

.500 or bust!

by Jayslick on Aug 7, 2007 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions

He has the great opportunity

to actually be undervalued by most of us here and at newberg's site. I don't know of many people who actually sound like they like the guy right now and first impressions are difficult to overcome.

by bstair on Aug 7, 2007 2:52 PM CDT reply actions

Callis ranked him at #2 in the system

That certainly opened my eyes to what his projected ceiling might be.

Saltalamacchia: one player, six vowels.

by tricer on Aug 7, 2007 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions

attitude

you're saying you don't want that attitude? I say we NEED that kind of attitude on the mound. Sure we want him to show a little more maturity in his decisions, but I want that cocky, arrogant sonofabitch throwing at opposing teams for us for years...

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists, there's nothing to be afraid of."

by Walter Sobchak on Aug 7, 2007 3:01 PM CDT reply actions

Rules Question:

So, I've seen that if the Rangers don't sign Beaven they get the same pick again next year. I think Adam also said that if they don't sign whomever they pick with the repeat, then they lose that pick (so a team couldn't just keep not signing players and stockpiling picks).

Well, I have a question that I'm hoping some of you smarter guys can answer:

Does that rule only apply to first round picks (or will it work for second round picks and so on)?

by BAC on Aug 7, 2007 7:10 PM CDT reply actions

wondering

the same thing. I think it only counts towards 1st and supplemental picks

McLovin...What a great name, sounds like a sexy hamburger

by Lonerangers on Aug 7, 2007 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions

From Alan Schwartz

"The same compensation also now exists for unsigned second-round picks, while a team that fails to sign a third-round pick will receive a sandwich pick between the third and fourth rounds."

by Brett Perryman on Aug 7, 2007 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions

dang

that's not a bad deal if you can't get your guy signed. You may not walk away with the same talent, but at least you don't leave empty handed

McLovin...What a great name, sounds like a sexy hamburger

by Lonerangers on Aug 7, 2007 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Not a bad deal

It isn't a bad deal, but I would still rather just sign Beavan and spend one or two hundred grand over slot than take a lesser talent next year. It is extremely hard to trade for true #1 starters and I doubt we can compete financially with Boston and the New York teams to sign them as free agents, so we are going to have to develop them ourselves. Signing Beavan for slightly over slot is lot better deal than potentially getting caught up with long contracts like the one we gave Padilla.

by uthornfan on Aug 7, 2007 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions

or

chan ho

McLovin...What a great name, sounds like a sexy hamburger

by Lonerangers on Aug 7, 2007 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Why?

Why would you bring that name up? For the love of God, can we never mention that name again?

by uthornfan on Aug 7, 2007 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions

the Ho's

name should be banned from now on...

We realize we have an issue at Angel Stadium (Rat problem)

by Hemi Charger on Aug 7, 2007 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Beavan

I think they'll sign him. If they don't they're stupid. You have to take chances in this game.

You're just a very misguided individual, Dustin. -- Sharky

by Dustin on Aug 7, 2007 10:58 PM CDT reply actions

QUESTION...

...does anybody know how next year's draft is shaping up?

any better or worse than this year's?

by oc on Aug 8, 2007 10:41 AM CDT reply actions

This year's

was very deep. Pedro Alvarez would probably have been the best player in this draft (at worst second), so the top prize(s) is/are there. But as the draft progresses this year's figures to be deeper than next year.

by Brett Perryman on Aug 8, 2007 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions