Sosa's RBIs

by spyoung on Sep 28, 2007 3:45 AM CDT Comment 23 comments

Scott Lucas has a great look at Sammy Sosa and his RBI totals this season, looking at how lucky Sosa has been with regard to hitting with runners on base. He admits that Sosa has performed with RISP but that it is almost inconceivable that Sosa could have the same kind of RBI production next year. It is a really good read and I think all the people who keep calling Sosa and "RBI machine" should definitely read it to put things in perspective.

http://rangers.scottlucas.com/

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Yeah I dont care

Leonard Davis, the best NFL player of all time. Except maybe for Greg Ellis, obviously.

by Sharky on Sep 28, 2007 6:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Just a bunch of

player hatin'.

by DJCahill on Sep 28, 2007 7:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Rangers would be....

Foolish is they DO NOT re-sign Sammy for 08, they will not find anyone for the price to fill his shoes, and i agree on this site there is too much anti Sammy talk, the guy has done everything asked of him and more, i for one want him back with the Rangers next year.

Kick Hicks Outta Texas!!!

by TexasGonzo on Sep 28, 2007 11:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sosa

So you'd be happy re-signing a 40-year-old DH who can only hit lefties, knowing that you'll probably have to pay him $4-5 million?

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Sep 28, 2007 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt Sammy

will get $4-$5 million.

by DJCahill on Sep 28, 2007 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sosa

He made just under $2 million this year, and now that he's a "proven RBI guy" again, I wouldn't be surprised to see him double that amount this winter.

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Sep 28, 2007 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll bet you a beer

should we ever be at the same Rangers event.

Over/Under $3.5 million, I got the under.

by DJCahill on Sep 28, 2007 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Deal

I'll take the over.

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Sep 28, 2007 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Witness

But y'all should clarify whether the salary is straight up or includes incentives. A big chunk of Sosa's money this year came from hitting targets for appearances.

by Lucas on Sep 28, 2007 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A good point.

Guaranteed money will almost certainly be under, or someone would have grabbed him at the deadline. However, I suppose that with incentives he could go over, but I still doubt it. I guess the bet should be for actual money earned.

by DJCahill on Sep 28, 2007 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haters Unite

How many players catch such crap? It's nuts. Dude made under $1 million dollars and had HR's, RBI's, only to have everyone complain (as if they're all geniuses at math).

Sosa is flawed. No shit?

He still had a decent 2007. Single-handedly won several games for us. And for the money? He was a solid entertainment value.

Those were 90 "lucky" RBI's?

Bwhahahahahaha!

Gimme a break. Were Dave Hostetler's HR's lucky?

by 3Bagger on Sep 28, 2007 5:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

sammy was better than we thought he'd be

his clutch hitting was good, look at his situational stats. but having him on a team that is not competing and has young talent to evaluate is dumb. he should not be on the team next season.

http://lonestarball.com/story/2007/4/12/211521/759

^ a link to the community projections.

we expected sosa to give us:
.246/.310/.431 on 332 PA's

he gave us:
.252/.311/.471 on 445ish PA's

he struck out a lot, but a look here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sosasa01.shtml

shows us that we should expect it.

Al Gore 2008 http://www.myspace.com/igotsculture

by gossamer on Sep 28, 2007 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Displacement Theory

Good stuff.

The Rangers need a talented DH prospect to displace one with Sosa. In reality, they'll probably sign several DH players over the next decade. History shows it to be a position in flux.

Which is why Sosa should have been cheered all year long in 2007. And the tragedy is, he was not only NOT cheered by many avid fans, but, panned for not being something he's not? As if his $500k-plus deal suggested we should expect anything more than what he delivered.

by 3Bagger on Sep 29, 2007 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Dude made under $1 million dollars

He made about $2 million this year.

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 28, 2007 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This Hilarious Sosa Take...

So $2 million is the new gripe? Plus Botts. Yada Yada?

Many of you guys make great points all year long. Then something like this "Sosa situation" emerges. Many people were just wrong about Sosa in 2007. Rather than admit it, they continue to justify it. New detailed grips and bitches, new stats to show how all his good numbers overlook his bad numbers. Meanwhile, no matter how you slice it Millwood sucked hard in 2007. And the threadcount ratio on "Sammy Sucks" to "Millwood sucks" is running about 100 to 1!

Why? Why? WHY?

by 3Bagger on Sep 29, 2007 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Scott was saying all of Sammy's ...

RBIs were lucky. In fact, I'm pretty sure he was saying it was more realistic to expect Sosa to drive in about 65 runs in a normal season where he doesn't get a freakish number of opportunities with RISP. That's not bagging on Sammy, he obviously made good on his extra chances, it is simply showing, with statistical evidence, that we shouldn't expect a repeat performance if we sign him again.

by Athos on Sep 28, 2007 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lucas

does some good work. But, I don't get this Sosa position at all. I don't need stat analysis to tell me that Sosa is an aging and vulnerable player.

It's obvious he's not. But give him his due, after a dismal 2005, then one year off, with little money in salary, he was a VERY PLEASANT surprise in 2007. When Cooperstown starts analyzing "lucky RBI's" to "unlucky RBI's" then I'll take notice.

And took keep with my Millwod gripe from before. Someone start crunching the numbers on Millwood or Padilla. Then tell me I need to dwell on how lucky Sammy Sosa was in 2007? Even the Botts argument has lost steam. Plus, he was hurt anyway.

I question the entire premise that, as a fan, I'm suppose to lessen my enjoyment of Sosa because he's not a top of the MLB front-line DH with a bright future that will carry us to 2020. We don't have such a player on the entire team!

by 3Bagger on Sep 29, 2007 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Millwood

I'm not sure why you're claiming that Millwood is getting off easy. I, for one, was calling for him to be shut down months ago, shortly after the ASB IIRC.

Millwood has been deplorable. An ERA+ of 90 will tell you that our #1 SP is a below league AVERAGE pitcher. Padilla? Even worse: ERA+ of 81.

There's not much room for debate on this subject, which is why I think it has been discussed a lot less than Sammy's improbable streak of luck ...

"This is Baseball, it ain't Golf. If you aren't cheating in baseball, you aren't trying nearly hard enough to win." - DJCahill

by Chase Irwin on Sep 29, 2007 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something to consider

Millwood isn't making much better than league average money for a starter. He will make 7.5 million this season. We expect him to be our ace, but in our current market he has the contract of a #4 starter.

Now Padilla on the other hand...

by rangeressary on Sep 30, 2007 4:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very well put !

Sammy did an amazing job. Sammy haters are just bitter because he took Botts' job from him
and now we know why.

"If you find a young hitting machine DH let me know, I could use one for my roster." ouch :) Ron Washington 9/22/07

by LAMuscleFag on Sep 28, 2007 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why are they bitter?

by a bebop a rebop on Sep 28, 2007 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

why are they bitter?

I don't know - why is anyone bitter? It's a waste of energy. Botts lovers wanted Botts to be the DH from the get go, once Sammy got the job the countdown was on as to when Botts would be promoted. As time dragged on and Sammy was still DHing, the bitterness and fervor grew day by day.
"They" were bitter because they weren't getting what they wanted thats why.

"If you find a young hitting machine DH let me know, I could use one for my roster." ouch :) Ron Washington 9/22/07

by LAMuscleFag on Sep 28, 2007 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why do some people think that Sosa...

Why do some people think that Sosa, who couldn't get a single spare prospect or reject at the trade deadline, will be able to draw any interest in the offseason.

Who are the Rangers going to compete against for his services? Everyone with half a brain can see how lucky he's been and how horribly he's played. As a backup/platoon-DH I don't see him getting much more than a million or so, and even then I don't see why the Rangers would pay him that much.

by rangeressary on Sep 28, 2007 11:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs