Rangers farm #4

by bushe on Jan 2, 2008 3:42 PM CST

Jim Callis posted in his chat http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=18658
That these are top 5 for this year:
1 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2 Boston Red Sox
3 Cincinnati Reds
4 Texas Rangers
5 New York Yankees

exciting. Seems like to me that the red sox are a little too high but I'd say that order independent those are probably the top 5 farms.

Sure does suck to see the red sox and yankees on there.

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Yankees

I like how when 30 mil comes off the books, they feel they have to get Sabathia and Tex to spend it on.

by meatbonelefty on Jan 2, 2008 3:55 PM CST reply actions

I really want them to get Santana

cause I want us to go hard after Sabathia. Good, young, healthy pitchers don't hit the market much. It takes a perfect storm of sorts for it to happen. A pitcher has to price himself out of what his team can afford, and that team has to be in contention so they feel they have to hang on to him and not deal him to a big market team (who would then resign him before he hits FA).

Sabathia is the only guy I can see that happening with next year.

Of course I don't know if we'd go after him if he did ht the market... that would be a big contract.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 2, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions

PREDICTION:

Santana will be traded at the deadline in '08

Sabathia will be resigned by the Indians before the end of the season

i'd give my left nut to see either of those guys in a Ranger uni...

but, it just won't happen. why would Sabathia want to leave Cleveland? he already plays for a championship ballclub... a YOUNG championship ballclub... with some good years ahead of them...

by oc on Jan 2, 2008 5:16 PM CST up reply actions

Well

3 of the 4 other teams on that list (with TB being the exception) are very top heavy and should fall pretty hard after this season due to graduation.

Cincy will likely lose Votto, Bruce, Bailey and possibly Cueto.

NYY will lose Kennedy and Joba.

Boston will lose Bucholz and Ellsbury.

Who are we in danger of losing? Hurley is the only top guy I can think of who has a real chance of having his rookie cherry popped this year, and even that might not happen.

Minor league rankings are way overrated, imo, but it will be fun to see if our name is at the top next year. Tampa will be tough to top, though. They'll lose a few guys, but they're ridiculously deep, and they have the number one overall pick again next year.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 2, 2008 4:02 PM CST reply actions

I keep hearing

how New York is top heavy, or barren of prospects. I've heard one of those two things for the last decade. I also hear how deep the Rangers are. I've heard that for awhile.

Yet I keep seeing the Yankees pull out Cano's, and Cabreras, and Hughes, and Joba ...

The Yankees seem to have had a better farm system all around for awhile, and I'm not sure I'd be betting on them to dry up anytime soon.

"As of now they're (The Astros) world series favorites. Period." - Sharky

by DJCahill on Jan 2, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions

I didn't mean to suggest the Yanks have no depth

They absolutely do. They've learned to spend in the draft and in LA.

Jose Tabata in their system is a guy who I love, and might well take over anybody in our system right now. Also they have guys like Austin Jackson, Alan Horne and Andrew Brackman who could all potentially be impact guys, along with some currently-anonymous younger LA guys who they spent gobs of cash on, so it's not like they're going to barren after this year. I was just noting that they're set to lose they're two top guys, including one of the truly elite prospects in the game, which is surely going to knock them down in these sorts of rankings next year.

Though I do object to Melky Cabrera being someone the Yanks should be proud of. He's pretty much a big pile of mediocrity. A fourth outfielder masquerading as a starting CF'r. He's already having weight troubles in his early 20's, and that is not a good sign for a guy who will probably never hit enough for a corner.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 2, 2008 4:18 PM CST up reply actions

FWIW Melky Cabrera PECOTA

His Pecota forecast for 2011 (age 26) 293/357/438

His Pecota comparables

1 Rick Manning 1977 53
2 Carlos Beltran 2000 49
3 Roberto Alomar 1990 48
4 Richie Ashburn 1950 46
5 Pete Rose 1964 44
6 Alfredo Griffin 1980 44
7 Dion James 1985 39
8 Greg Gross 1975 39
9 Whitey Lockman 1949 38
10 Terry Puhl 1979 37
11 Tony Gwynn 1983 35
12 Reggie Smith 1968 35
13 Junior Felix 1990 34
14 Lee Mazzilli 1978 34
15 Carl Yastrzemski 1962 34
16 Buddy Bell 1974 33
17 Bob Bailey 1965 30
18 Adrian Beltre 2002 30
19 Cass Michaels 1949 30
20 Derek Jeter 1997 29

I'd be cautious about writing off a guy with a .270 EQA at the age of 22.

"As of now they're (The Astros) world series favorites. Period." - Sharky

by DJCahill on Jan 2, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions

Yah

That sounds about right.

He seems like an .800 ops guy to me, and I have a hard time believing he's not going to eat his way out of CF in the next few years.

A corner OF with an .800 ops isn't that great.

There's a reason you keep hearing the Yanks throwing his name into trade discussion, imo.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 2, 2008 8:07 PM CST up reply actions

Don't forget....

Eric Duncan.

</sarcasm>

by TheBZA on Jan 2, 2008 7:45 PM CST up reply actions

Really?

You've been hearing the Rangers system is deep for a while?

That's something that seems to have arisen in the last 18 months or so...prior to that, the system seemed to be DVD, Hurley, and a couple of other guys.

I don't think the "depth" argument really came up until 2006.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 2, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions

All I heard

during the Melvin years was how deep the system was.

"As of now they're (The Astros) world series favorites. Period." - Sharky

by DJCahill on Jan 2, 2008 4:51 PM CST up reply actions

That was a long time ago

And it was pretty true. Blalock, Tex, Young, Laird are the guys that come to mind right off the bat. Im sure there were others but it was generally considered deep especially in position prospects. Melvin hasn't been great at pitching prospects as the Brewers are finding out now with Gallardo and another guy but thats about it.

Our farm sstem went down the drain when Hart took over and completely neglected it for 4 years. Its taken two years now and alot of work to get back to a loaded system and it will take another couple years to see most of these guys hit the bigs.

by Steven on Jan 2, 2008 5:02 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed

If LBrooks thinks JD sucks I'd like to hear his take on Hart. Hart set back the Rangers years.

West Vagina who? Boomer Sooner!

by boomer1 on Jan 2, 2008 5:08 PM CST up reply actions

Ok, but the Melvin years

are quite a while ago, now, a full 6 seasons ago. You saying that is a bit like all the writers still assuming the Rangers have lots of bats but no arms anywhere in the system.

Cranberry Sauce

by t ball on Jan 2, 2008 11:49 PM CST up reply actions

Tampa Bay...

...has had the deepest farm club for years...

and how many championships have they won?

i agree... minor league rankings are for shite.

also, i wouldn't be surprised if Matt Harrison sees some time with the big club in' 08.

by oc on Jan 2, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions

Well

You have to be willing to spend a little money to keep your guys around, and also to augment you roster with a few FA signings or trades for expensive veterans if you want to win.

They've produced some pretty darn good young players lately. Kazmir, Upton, Shields, Crawford, Longoria, and Baldelli are all pretty nice, and they just used Delmon to get Garza too. That's the kind of good young base you build a championship around... if your owner actually gives a flying crap about winning.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 2, 2008 4:23 PM CST up reply actions

Keith Law responds

On his chat today, Law was asked what he thought about Callis's farm rankings. Law has the Rays as a clear number one and the Rangers as a clear number 2. He wasn't certain of his order after that. Probably Cincy, Boston, and the Giants.

by jsm on Jan 3, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions

Giants?

He must be really high on Bumgardner and Alderson...

if you apologize for everything, you apologize for nothing...

by Longhorn on Jan 3, 2008 8:43 PM CST up reply actions

Other Rangers Tidbits from Callis

He said he thinks McCarthy can be a #3 starter in the majors, but that was probably his ceiling. Said his minor league strikeout numbers were based more on deception than stuff, which doesn't play at the big league level.

by jsm on Jan 2, 2008 4:16 PM CST reply actions