OT: Election & Economy Extravaganza
by TheBZA on Oct 1, 2008 7:09 PM CDT
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PrintI figured someone might as well start one up. A lot of craziness going on with the election and economy. I have to admit I'll be relieved when both of these things shake out. I'm going to keep it simple a post a few links I found interesting the past few days. I guess we should keep this somewhat civil. Flame away for my early 20's, liberal slant.
FiveThirtyEight's projections for the day.
Keyshawn Johnson gets owned by T.O.
P.S. Where's Sharky? I haven't seen him in about a month outside of football threads.
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Make your popcorn
and watch the VP debate tomorrow night. I fully expect Biden to choke on his foot and Palin to continue to sound like a beauty queen answering a pagaent question about world peace.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
I'd love to see it live
But I’m going to Nine Inch Nails instead.
I’m sure she’ll give an answer on the level of “South Africa and the Iraq”, though.
by vfn on Oct 1, 2008 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep...
I’ll have to record it as well.
I’ll be at the Oregon State v. Utah game.
I think it is going to be one of the more interesting VP debates of recent memory.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Damn
I hadn’t seen that Owens quote about Johnson. He’s right to say it. I’ve noticed a distinct anti-T.O./Cowboys bias from Johnson. Sad, really.
In other news, this next month can’t go by fast enough. Then we can all stop pretending that we know all the answers and slip back into our more comfortable and natural position: lazily glossing over the news and attaching blame for any problem to whichever party is the opposite of the one we had drilled in us as kids.
Those will be happy days.
Question...
not trying to flame any on party, but I came across the NY Times article from 1999, which basically predicts what happened…..anyone care to comment?
Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.
‘’From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,’’ said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ‘’If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.’’
Granted, there’s plenty of blame to go around — from greedy Wall Street types, to those who didn’t make any changes in policy for the last 10 years or so. But, I’ve read in more than one place that the genesis of all this was that the Dems (namely Clinton’s administration) where the ones pushing for Fannie/Freddie to loosen their requirements for loans.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
Again, a lot happened after that
They didn’t need any further incentive from government to get into what they got into. As real property soared in value, they thought they could get away with making a loan to anybody and their dog. Then all these subprime mortgages were all put in these crazy bundles and traded around all over the place. Just a lot of bad decision making.
by Black Francis on Oct 1, 2008 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions
but don't underestimate the role of
derivatives in allowing the private sector to join in the party as well. Oh we’ll offset this risk with a credit default swap. Of course who knows if the insuring party has the means to pay. All unregulated thanks to Greenspan and good ol’ Phil Gramm.
One problem
That indeed was one problem, but by itself wouldn’t have caused us to be in this situation if that was the only thing. The biggest problem was the combination of Fannie/Freddie and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999. It passed with so much support in the Republic held Congress it was veto proof. Nothing Clinton could have done there. Those 2 things plus artificially low interest rates thanks to Greenspan created our current mess. Plenty of blame on both sides of the aisle for this one.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
Honestly the biggest problem
was the heavy marketing of Mortgage Backed Securites. In order to sell Mortgage Backed Securities, you needed Mortgages. Since Mortgage originators could fairly easily flip the mortgage, and not get stuck with the downside of default, credit quality got crappier and crappier.
The demand for mortgages pretty much guaranteed that a stack of extremely dicey mortgages would get written.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
I'm just now reading the
FactCheck.org link below which kind of debunks my theories but not my conclusion. There is a lot of blame to go around and it’s pointless to start pointing fingers now when we need things fixed.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
Here is a link attaching blame to the Gramm-Leach-Bliley act as well as to the Republican party.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
Yeah, I don't think you can blame this on too much legislation
there wasn’t any legislation that forced car dealers to write dicey car loans, but Bill Heard went ahead and did it anyway.
If you have to blame anyone, probably blame Greenspan for keeping interest rates too low.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
What are the problems
with it? I don’t go there much, but I haven’t heard of any thing wrong.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
I saw a great comparison of this whole mess somewhere
can’t remember where. Anyway they said it’s like if you make 30k a year and go out and buy a Ferrari, even though you know you can’t afford it. Well as soon as your first payment comes up, the gov’t says “It’s ok, we will pay it off for you.” So then what do you do? Go out and buy more stuff because the gov’t is going to bail you out.
Bill passes senate
I’ll keep my fingers crossed that the House doesn’t screw it up now.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 1, 2008 9:42 PM CDT reply actions
I haven't gotten to pay attention to the news much today
But why is the Senate voting on this? All appropriations have to originate in the House of Reps. I believe that’s in the Constitution and everything.
by Black Francis on Oct 1, 2008 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions
The Senate
Actually wrapped the bailout in a defunct and useless House energy bill that started in the Senate last year. It had a few few tax provisions from the House, so it qualified.
They then stripped all other provisions and just amended the thing to include all bailout provisions.
Weird, but clever.
by brettgardner on Oct 1, 2008 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Those wiley Senators
…always have something up their sleeves.
by Black Francis on Oct 1, 2008 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Palin
The expectations for her are so low if she completes one sentence without stumbling the media will say she’s the winner. It’s sad that Biden can’t challenge her on anything tomorrow tonight without being called a sexist
Without being called a sexist...
I don’t really think that’s the issue. George Bush is a man, and look at all the problems Gore had in his debates with him. These things are graded on a curve… nobody expects anything of Palin, so if she does okay, it’s a fantastic night for her.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Of course...
You are going to be standing out there with your Palin pom-poms waving…
Of course, it is nice to see you’ve gravitated from how great she is to, “Well, she’s not as bad as everyone is acting like she is…”
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 1, 2008 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions
She's
Impossible to defend. That seems like a nonpartisan thing to me.
by brettgardner on Oct 1, 2008 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Whatever, dude.
You always read things into my positions. “That dog has a puffy tail,” becomes “All dogs have puffy tails.”
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
If Palin comes out
with here Pom Poms waving, I might vote for her.
It’d be more than I got out of any VP. Sure she’d be the Dan Quayle of VPs, but that’d still be better than Darth Cheney.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
is it good...
…to say:
nobody expects anything of Palin, so if she does okay, it’s a fantastic night for her.
that makes for a great campaign motto:
mccain/palin ’08 – exceeding your lowered expectations
"He wont have anything. 1 man, 0 tools."~ hiafex bout longhorn...
Here's my choice...
…for the first question of the VP debate:
Should an artificial intelligence that is self-aware and capable of passing the Turing Test be given civil rights? What about the right to vote?
Nice
You’d get great answers in response
Biden would make some bad joke that someone boring is actually a robot and votes as far as he knows already.
Palin would ask “what’s a turing test?”
She obviously knows what a Turing Test is.
She reads every newspaper. Every. Single. One.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
"But which one's specifically"...
My hell, I’ve never seen another person look more like a deer in headlights than she did in that Couric interview.
“I’ll get back to you on that”. Anyone think she says that again tomorrow?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I was once interviewed by TV folks
coming out of Vladamir Putin’s talk at Rice. I had the same deer in the headlights look, and looked and sounded incredibly dumb (maybe it was shock from looking through his eyes into his evil soul).
But of course, I’m not running for Vice President.
I'll bet that was...
an interesting speech to be at.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
It was right after 9/11
but all he really talked about was oil and energy (it is Houston after all). I was hoping for something more profound, but you take what you get. He didn’t come across nearly as evil as he does now (of course), but he wasn’t exactly comforting up there either. I actually think this was right around Bush’s famous “looked into his eyes” moment.
That guy is old-school KGB
…right down to the marrow of his bones.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions
VP Debate...
Anyone have a problem with Gwen Ifill moderating the VP debate tomorrow night? Not exactly an impartial party is she?
No
Jim Lehrer(sp) ain’t exactly a neocon.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
Right, but...
The sales of her book are likely directly tied to Obama winning the Presidency, thus she has an actual direct financial interest in the outcome tomorrow night.
That's
Tenuous at best. It’s really pretty insulting, actually.
by brettgardner on Oct 1, 2008 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions
False?
Well false implies an actual knowledge. You just gave an opinion, so that’s not false.
What’s insulting is that you’re questioning her professionalism because of some tenuous association with an upcoming book which is not a biography of Obama in any sense.
In a practical sense, don’t you think that if a moderator made some silly show of asking much tougher, pointed questions to one candidate or another that it would really just become a story about the moderator, and not about the substance of the debate?
It’s a paper argument. There’s nothing behind it.
by brettgardner on Oct 1, 2008 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Why should people's professionalism not be questioned?
Does clipping on a media badge make you immune from criticism? She wrote a book about Obama – she thrust the question of her politics into the dialogue. If you are moderating a debate, your credentials as “fair” should be assessed – both campaigns would be stupid not to ask those questions about the moderators.
Now, I don’t think writing a book in and of itself makes you biased. But I guarantee if some commentator X’ was authoring a book called “John McCain – the Maverick of the 21st Century,” Obama’s camp would wonder whether they should be asking the questions.
I think it is silly myself, but it fits into a global message the McCain camp is using, so I don’t see how anyone can be either surprised, much less insulted by it.
Its called "age of obama"
or something like that. It is going to get noticed when the moderator of a debate who writes a book with that type title.
Politics is perception – you’ve been around enough to know that. So has she.
My guess – she knew that this would get noticed at some point, raising the profile of the book considerably (who thinks about gwen ifill much anyway?). Sure she takes a little flak – it just doesn’t appear quite right – but it is expected and worth it. Nothing to be insulted about. I doubt she is, so why should you be?
What?
I think you’re confused about the timeline here. For one, the book isn’t even completed yet, and has been in the works for quite some time.
But she most certainly is insulted by this:
“In The Post interview, Ifill said that as the daughter of a minister who marched in civil rights demonstrations, she recognized the historic nature of Obama’s candidacy. But, Ifill said, "I still don’t know if he’ll be a good president. I’m still capable of looking at his pros and cons in a political sense.” She added: “No one’s ever assumed a white reporter can’t cover a white candidate.”"
Her book is about a new generation of black politicians, which includes Obama. “Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama”.
Look.
I know the book isn’t ABOUT Obama. I’m just saying the appearance is bad. And it doesn’t take an idiot to know that writing a book with that title in this extremely politically charged time is going to APPEAR like she is impartial.
If she didn’t realize that news about this book coming out would raise flags at the McCain campaign, she’s not a very astute political analyst. Since I believe she’s smarter than that, it means she had to know
Also
Read what I actually wrote. I didn’t just stop with “you’re questioning her professionalism”. I continued with “because of some tenuous association with an upcoming book which is not a biography of Obama in any sense.”
What’s “fair” about a debate, anyway? If people get answers to hard questions, then that’s presumably good for everybody. I say bring on a debate of pure partisanship. An O’Reilly one followed by an Olbermann.
by brettgardner on Oct 2, 2008 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Ok...
but why is the question just now being raised?
The Repubs have known about this since July. Why make a big deal of it now. Other than the obvious, we need to find a excuse on why she tanks reason.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I'm not defending those complaining
I think its silly and just typical shallow politics. I just don’t see how it is “insulting”.
Been reading the Corner this evening?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 1, 2008 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions
It's on Drudge too...
and Glenn Reynolds has been pushing it.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
I quit reading Glenn Reynolds some time ago
His schtick is tiresome.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 1, 2008 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I thought you were down...
with blog triumphalism.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Just another excuse...
or person to blame.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
More solid work by the McCain campaign
Ifill discussed the book in a interview with The Washington Post on September 4, well before the Commission on Presidential Debates announced the debate moderators. The McCain campaign said it had not seen Ifill’s Post interview, or been aware of her book, until Tuesday. McCain told CNN’s Juan Carlos Lopez that the situation concerned him but that he was sure Ifill would be professional.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/gwen.ifill/index.html
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 2, 2008 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Okay
That’s a fucking lie. Either that, or McCain ‘08 is the worst run campaign in history. It’s common for campaigns to have several people dedicated solely to scouring the media from all over the country every day, notating any mention of their guy and the opponent. In fact I did this grueling work during my first tour of duty with Bill Bradley when he was running for President. I bet 200 pounds of news papers and god only knows how many FedEx’s of video tape were brought in daily.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions
yeah...
…there was a short peice done on one of the news shows 8-10 months ago that showed a room with 15-16 people with two tvs a piece and their entire job was to watch tape and on their candidate as well as all the opposition(it was during the primaries) and find dirt for use on anyone at anytime… its pure balderdash to think they didn’t know about this…
"He wont have anything. 1 man, 0 tools."~ hiafex bout longhorn...
Generally
The media analysis is just done to keep the campaign informed so that they can shape their message. Opposition research is an entirely different department and is usually done by consultants. The media stuff is handled by staffers and sometimes volunteers.
But yeah, they knew about it. There’s no question in my mind that they did. Now if the people at the top of the campaign aren’t reading the memos then that’s another issue but still a problem for McCain.
Anyway, I was with Bradley in 1998 and 1999. I bet this kind of work is a lot easier now. Most of what they’re doing is probably electronic. Video sent over the net and digitized newspapers. “Back in the day” we had a two whole floors of a DC townhouse so full of newspapers you could barely get around. And that was just during the primaries.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Of course it is a lie.
You’re smart enough to have realized before now that campaigns lie all the time, right? Or – shall we say – stretch the truth. Obama and McCain are both guilty (obviously people could argue about how guilty each is).
The whole thing is a clever ploy by McCain’s campaign (as with most of these sniping attacks, I doubt McCain or Obama has anything to do with it). They whine and complain all this week – which most people will interpret as a desperation attempt to get Ifill off the debate. In truth, they want her on. This does three things – 1> it allows them to spin post-debate that she was trying to “trap” Palin, after all, we told you she was biased before hand. Why didn’t she ask Biden x,y, or z?. 2> it partially takes the focus off of Palin leading up to the debate. The question is – is Ifill fair? Not, is Palin ready? and possibly most important 3> it will very likely take the edge off of Iffill – she can’t be as aggressive as she may have been because she’ll be trying extra hard not to seem biased. The debate is now about her impartiality. She’s compromised now, and not for the reasons that everyone is talking about.
Is it slimy politics? Of course it is. It is also smart though – this is too sophisticated for the average voter to pick up. That is what presidential campaigning has stooped to now.
It is probably a lie.
With the amount of incompetence I’ve seen over the last few years and with some of the decisions the McCain campaign has made in particular, to me it seems plausible that the top levels of the campaign really didn’t know about the book. There really could be a communication problem within the campaign itself.
Or at least it could’ve started that way. Either way, you’re right about how they’re handling it.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
credit crisis
Good summary of who caused the credit crisis…
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/who_caused_the_economic_crisis.html
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
That's a nice summary
It boggles the mind when people try to paint such a huge, complex problem as the fault of a few, conveniently from the other party.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
Kind of like
Nancy Pelosi and her get out the vote rant vs Bush on Monday. Or how about John Kerry on O’Reilly on Tuesday night. I wish people would wake up and realize that Congress is the problem.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
I think
Most people do realize that, or at least they perceive that. Approval ratings are consistently terrible.
Also, bravo for ironically making t ball’s point.
by brettgardner on Oct 2, 2008 12:55 AM CDT up reply actions
The $700 billion question is
Why do they keep sending them back to Washington if they hold them in such low esteem?
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
Because
My Senator isn’t the problem it’syour Senator.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
My Senator thinks homosexuals and single mothers
are an abomination against God and shouldn’t be allowed to hold government jobs, especially teaching positions.
Which makes me want to shoot myself in the face in shame.
Nothing could finer, indeed… :(
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Wow...
Orin Hatch is your senator as well.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Difficult to unseat an incumbant
The amount of money they start with is more than a challenger can usually raise. It either takes a realignment or a perfect storm to beat an incumbent Senator. It’s a little easier to get rid of representative, but it’s still not easy.
I don’t think we are seeing a realignment right now. It’s just slow to develop. It started last midterms and I don’t think the dust will settle until the next midterms. By then the GOP should have their act together again but will be facing a bunch of entrenched democrats.
Another reason it’s hard to get rid of people is the two-party system, obviously. Lots of places are “safe” for one party or another, and the incumbent’s usually not seriously challenged in his or her primary. In Texas, for example, we are pretty much are electing Senators for lifetime terms. Unless they quit or die or move onto a different office, that seat is theirs as long as they want it.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
correction
That should read “I do think we are seeing a realignment”.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions
my least favorite part...
…is the post debate spin… each side saying they won, pick lines out of the oppponents words to misconstrue… painting it as a big victory and clear cut reason why their horse is better than the other… makes me vomit burp. its either all that political crap, or the fifth of bourbon.
"He wont have anything. 1 man, 0 tools."~ hiafex bout longhorn...
my least favorite part
is when the candidates bring up people’s names. “Think about Bob Marlarky, in Altoona, Pennsylvania. He’s a blah, blah, blah blah blah.”
And then the other guy (girl) tries to out do them on the next time “Well, I’m thinking about Jill Eaglon, a single mother with 14 kids living off of five jobs…”
by JBImaknee on Oct 2, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"Asphalt me, ben. Asphalt me good and hard." - brettgardner
by inactive lsb user on Oct 2, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions
nothing meant by it
I think we made our comments pretty much simultaneously.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Jill Eaglon must be a crazy good lay
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 2, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Rec...
I hate that too. Either parties candidate acting like they know these people on a personal level, rather than just using their story to try and gain support and votes. It makes me ill.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Low expectations and Palin
I’m going to buck the trend here. It’s becoming cliche to say (and I said it, too) that expectations are so low for Palin that all she has to do is not throw up on stage and it will be a win for her. I think the opposite is true.
Her interviews have been such a disaster that I think most people watching fully expect her to screw up and are waiting for it to happen. And I’m talking about conservatives, liberals, and moderates alike, though for different reasons with some in each group. It’s obvious from her interviews that she has an embarrassing lack of even the most basic knowledge of current events, foreign policy, and even U.S. history. This woman has no business being mayor of Wasilla, let alone VP or even governor of Alaska. I live in Murphy, and if my mayor was so uninformed I’d scream for a recall.
Recently they’ve spun her incompetence as her just being “Joe six-pack” and able to better relate to voters. Ridiculous. I want my VP to know MORE about the world than I do, not much less. And I find it interesting that women, supposedly one reason for picking Palin, are more likely than men to feel that she’s unqualified.
I think that anything less than a home run tonight from Palin means a zero chance McCain can turn around the polling trends of the past two weeks. Barring Obama being hit by a meteor, he’ll be the next president.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
Good point
There is a difference between Palin’s low expectations and, say, Bush’s in 2000 against Gore.
The ball is really in Palin’s court to show that she’s qualified – she’s lost all benefit of the doubt. I disagree that she needs to be perfect – I think that she needs to show that she’s 1> not stupid, 2> able to give interesting, informed answers to most questions (even if they are typical responses), and 3> an unexpected expert on one or two things (a few unique insights we haven’t seen from people yet). Maybe that is a home run – but I think if she holds her own she eliminates the talk that picking her is a disaster. Remember, people don’t pay much attention to VPs anyway. I don’t know how likely that is though.
i don't think...
…a single hour and a half debate is not going to erase several weeks of disaster at her own hands… it might temper the sentiment, but 6/10 believe she isn’t qualified, and though she might win one or two back, i don’t see one debate being that big of a game changer for her, especially at the VP level.
"He wont have anything. 1 man, 0 tools."~ hiafex bout longhorn...
I don't think Palin was ever intended on being a game-changer
People keep making that mistake. Her role was and is to solidify McCain’s base, so he can go out talking about bipartisanship and all that stuff that would normally get the red meat conservatives furious. But they’ve been thrown their bone, so McCain can do what he does best.
If Palin is a disaster, then the effect will be a less motivated base, which will force McCain to shore it up very late in the game. I doubt anyone changes their vote because of her though. Maybe a few people who are truly undecided between McCain and Obama will look to the next line, but those people are likely going to be won over by tons of factors, and are unlikely to be as horrified by Palin.
If she does well though, it reinvigorates the base yet again a month from the election, paradoxically allowing McCain to campaign AWAY from those very people.
Many people are horrified by Sarah Palin, but I’d wager that they are almost exclusively Obama supporters, or people likely to go that way anyway if the VP choice was a conservative. Palin makes for an easy target, indeed, but every attack on her is one less on the guy at the top of the ticket.
If McCain somehow wins this election, its because Palin allowed McCain to win over the middle. Not because Palin won any of them over.
i think thats slightly backwards logic.
to say palin wasn’t brought in to be a game changer of sorts is awefully partisan at this point. when she was first announced all that was said, everywhere, on both sides, was that she was a game changer… “what does this do to hillary voters?” “this solidfies the republican base?” “she’s brought energy to the campaign!”… and the new AP survey out today shows only 25% of american’s believe palin is currently qualified to step into the role of president should it be necessary… if you think its only obama supporters that don’t approve of her than that probably speaks volumes about the race don’t ya think?
"He wont have anything. 1 man, 0 tools."~ hiafex bout longhorn...
I didn't say only Obama supporters disapprove
Obviously lots of people have serious questions about her qualifications. I’m trying to say that only Obama supporters disapprove to the point that they think she disqualifies McCain from being elected. I think that the vast middle everyone is fighting over may be skeptical, but they will vote on other issues. As we keep hearing – they’re concerned about the economy. They aren’t concerned about McCain dying in 3 years in the middle of a crisis with Russia.
And when McCain introduced her, of course he didn’t say “Here’s Sarah Palin, who the right wing wackos will like!”. He said she was a target for the middle – its all about perception… But she was a “bring back the base” pick if there ever was one. If they could have spun her to get votes from the middle, then why not try?
A good write-up on this - kind of the anti-t ball
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=0038dbb2-ef88-4096-9aa7-5e17fb3b3e91
Hmmm, good article
Palin’s high-stakes speech at the Republican convention was a home run,
Ok, she is great at delivering speeches written for her.
and her one-on-one with ABC’s Charlie Gibson, while underwhelming, was adequate.
I thought that one was just as embarrassing as the Couric interviews.
unless she faints or vomits on air, her team will rush to declare a victory—not just for her, but for all of Joe Six-Pack America.
How is this a victory? I expect just a bit more from the VP than to successfully not throw up when forced to actually speak to the media or another candidate.
the media rushes to declare it a defining, game-changing moment. We then immediately and completely recalibrate our expectations based on the assumption that said candidate will never recover/stumble again. Sarah Palin gave a great convention speech: She is a grassroots rock star destined to save the McCain campaign! Sarah Palin gave a terrible interview: She is a clueless loser destined to sink the McCain campaign! Or forget Palin. How many times did the media prematurely pronounce a candidate toast this cycle? (I’m sure the Hillary and McCain campaigns kept a rough count.) You’d think people who cover politics for a living would be less inclined toward such hysteria than civilians. Instead, we’re so much worse.
That’s a great view of political coverage by the media.
So, my advice to Governor Palin is to stop letting your fussy handlers freak you out. You’re going to do just fine. You won’t be on that stage alone. Biden is bound to open himself up for at least a couple of good scoldings. The media is poised to write your comeback story.
I do think that it’s possible her poor interview performances are due in part to McCain’s handlers “freaking” her out a bit with their attempts at damage control. Unfortunately, I also think they have every right to freak her out.
I have never been so interested in the VP debate, this is going to be fun in a geeky politico way.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
Historically
VP debates aren’t about the VP candidates — they’re about the VP candidates attacking the opposing Pres. candidate. Palin seems at her best when she is in attack mode and the items that the Repubs have been attacking Obama on to this point are pretty layman. I expect her to win the presentation portion of the debate while Biden wins the content portion and most neutral parties, in the end, will see this debate as a non-factor.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 2, 2008 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Another VP point
This has been brewing in my mind a little bit lately.
One of the biggest critiques of the Bush presidency is that Cheney is somewhere behind a curtain running the show. People don’t like that – I’m not sure if they don’t like it because Cheney is creepy, or they think Cheney is creepy because he’s secretly in control. But whatever the cause, it leaves a sour taste in their mouths.
Well, Sarah Palin is most certainly NOT that. Anyone can tell that she’ll be a non-factor in a McCain administration. Do you think he will be consulting her about ANYTHING? Not likely. I also think this is a floor to any negative Palin can have on his campaign- its obvious she won’t matter at all unless he dies…
Ironically, Obama is the one who made a Cheney-like pick. Obviously Obama comes across as more competent than Bush circa 2000, though he’s probably technically aroudn the same amount of experience. I think the idea that Biden’s foreign policy experience supports Obama is a tough sell, since most people are wary of a Cheney effect. Biden is goofy enough and does not come across as manipulative.
With McCain’s age and experience (and ego), it’d have been hard to imagine anyone being a Cheney in his administration. But it is interesting to note that Palin is clearly the anti-Cheney.
With Obama, I see someone who could actually end up structurally similar to Bush – a presidency that is really spread across many people (Daschle, Biden), with Obama at the helm. Obama won’t defer entirely to anyone as Bush did with Cheney, but I don’t see him as nearly as power-centric as McCain would be (or Clinton was, at least my impression of him).
Don't really care
So long as we increase the size of the military, send more resources to Afghanistan, really funnel down the efforts in Iraq, and stop being silly with two nations who could be allies of ours but for their administrations—Iran and Russia. I really couldn’t disagree more with how McCain addressed the Georgian issue, and both of the candidates rarely speak of Iran with regurgitating the 2 or 3 bullet points everybody already knows.
It just seems like some people aren’t happy if there’s not a black-and-white division between “us and them.”
Anyway, that’s my unrelated rant.
ha
that is kind of unrelated. Oh well.
I am certainly not endorsing one way or another – just a curious observation.
I do agree with you about most of those, though I’m not sure about this
stop being silly with two nations who could be allies of ours but for their administrations—Iran and Russia.
Administrations of countries can be pretty big impediments to being allies. We should be allies with Cuba too but for that pesky communism thing.
I think the blustering about Russia is a little silly, but that is global politics – I think we’ve seen from the past fifteen years that a one-power world is inherently unstable.
Iran’s government is just fundamentally anti-US. It’d be great if we could have better relations (heck, their people are more western than most of our “allies” in the region), but that isn’t going to change until the Ayatollahs are out of power there.
Mmm
Well, I don’t think we’re really disagreeing. I’m not saying that I think we should embrace any nation in spite of its administration; rather, I’m saying that talk of bombing Iran or pulling Russia out of the G8 is so huge a leap from simply distrusting a particular regime or administration as to be considered ridiculous, at least by me.
McCain
Has officially given up on Michigan
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/mccain-pulls-out-of-michigan/?hp
Probably a smart move.
Agree
But is Wisconsin any better use of his resources? Not sure of his current operations in Missouri but that seems like the better bet to me.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Well
Either of those are better bets than Michigan.
I just wonder how much he’s going to pump into Florida going forward.
Also
If you allocate the states’ electoral votes based on how they are likely to vote, then all Obama really needs is Michigan and Missouri to bring his total to 271. That’s assuming that not a single southern state is going Obama, and McCain wins Ohio, Florida, and Colorado.
The handwriting’s on the wall, I think.
Agreed
I haven’t been very confident most of the election, expecting some kind of Republican card up the sleeve, but this week has put me at ease. I can confidently say Obama pulls it off.
I agree with your response above, but I don’t see how other than making an effort in Wisconsin does any good. Might as well overload Missouri with extra staff.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Perhaps
They feel that if MO were to go for Obama, the race would already be over, so it’s better to pull one out that might have been leaning Obama.
With a month to go
I don’t know if anything is safe for anyone.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Me Either
Things are starting to shape up pretty good for Obama, but there’s that race thing. In the end, will people pull the lever for a black guy?
I think they will, but I lost a lot of faith in this country in 2004.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
I said back...
before each party had their candidate that this would be a very bad matchup for McCain and the election wouldn’t be close if Obama beat Clinton. The polls have showed it much closer than I though it would be, however I think in the end that Obama will still win the popular vote by 10% and the electoral vote by possibly 100 or more.
As you said, it may have been a smart move for McCain to pull out of Michigan because he really has not shot there, but he really can’t afford to just give up in any states right now. He’s at a big disadvantage in the electoral college the way things are shaping up.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Question
If you are Obama, do you continue to play it safe – shoot for ~300-350 EVs – Colo, Nevada, NM, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Virginia are your targets, or do you go for the kill – invest heavily in places like mizzou, montana, NC, even Georgia and north dakota? If Obama can hit 400 EVs he’d have a mandate far stronger than anyone since George H.W. Bush (Clinton had Perot, and W. Bush was very close each time).
Obviously the drawback of going for the big win is that you risk spreading yourself too thin if things tighten up considerably going forward. But the odds of that are decreasing every day – at what point do you start playing for margin of victory?
Mandates
Generally overrated. If I were Obama, though, I would probably try to secure Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina and Colorado. Nevada’s a coin flip right now, and in the end, I don’t think it will be all that relevant. Forget ND and Georgia, though any southern states are nice.
He’s spoken all along about his 50 state strategy, but at some point he’s going to have to make a choice like the one you posit.
IMO...
he should go in for the kill. The guy is a fundraising machine, I don’t see him running out of campaign funds anytime soon. I would probably avoid spending big in places like ND and Montana but every other state you listed he has a good shot at and he should make every attepmt to wrap them up.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I think that Obama
should start concentrating more in the SE area. States like Georgia, Miss, Alabama, SC, and Fla all have pretty high African American constituencies. If he were to pull out 3 of those 5 (granted 4 of them are pretty solid Republican), I think it may just guarantee him the Presidency.
In reference to how good the Steelers have been in their history: "No one is even close to them."- Steal Home
No.
That’s a bad strategy for many reasons. Glossing over the serious problems Obama would have to face if he were relying on exclusively the black vote to win, it’s a bad strategy because it’s just so unnecessary. He can win so many other ways without wasting his time in an area that just won’t vote for him.
Who's to say
that he can’t at least gain one of those Rep states in the SE?
In reference to how good the Steelers have been in their history: "No one is even close to them."- Steal Home
Sure he can
But it doesn’t really do any good putting extra resources there. If he wins it with his current activity, it would just be a bonus.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Sounds like McCain is writing off Michigan
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_Michigan.html?showall
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Yeah, I posted from an old window rather than just shutting it down.
Too bad I can’t delete the post.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Anybody see Nate's smackdown of Real Clear Politics?
so money
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
haha yes
I have a professor that was showing us RealClearPolitics in class and gave us an “assignment” to poke around on the site. When myself and another student brought up FiveThirtyEight, he didn’t have much interest. Maybe I should bring it up again on Tuesday….
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Yeah
I always wondered why you’d see a poll one week and not the next. Who knows why. Regardless, it doesn’t matter what site you look at; Obama’s margin has been growing.
by Black Francis on Oct 2, 2008 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions
if anybody cared about zogby enough to pay him
he could put together a poll that has mccain up nation wide
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
i saw that
and he brought up some good points. i understand not using the daily kos poll (because they are super liberal) but they had been using the george washington battleground poll that was apparently super flawed in age representation.
that said, i think nate is a democrat…but at least he’s not hiding it. full disclosure on why/how you pick polls is important.
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
What the hell
I don’t watch much Fox News but they have Karl Rove as a analyst? Huh? 2nd I’ve been trying to give O’reilly the benefit of the doubt and try to look at his show as fair and balanced and cautiously entered the “no spin zone.” Yeah, That show is a joke.
karl rove has been there for a while
and so has ollie north…
i like the show, it’s good tv. hannity and colmes is a joke
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
It is a terrible show.
They are part of the problem.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
At least
Rove will give an analysis from his perspective and not just spew the Democrats talking points like Dee Dee Meyers, Donna Brazille and Paul Begala do over at CNN.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
on countdown
lol…they are talking about mccain calling for bush to veto the bail out…but mccain voted for it!
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
Ugh
CNN is like freaking Monday Night Football with all these damn commentators.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Anyone watching this debate?
I’m voting for Obama, but I have to admit that it was an exceptionally savvy move by Palin to ask, on microphone, if she could call Biden “Joe.” Very, very savvy.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
Agreed
She’s sticking with “Joe Six Pack” and “Soccer Mom” routine. She’s been practicing this all week. Of course Biden has as well., but whatever.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
She is going all the way with the "everyman" thing.
If it doesn’t work, she’s toast. If it works, McCain’s prospects improve, maybe significantly.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
That's right!
She’s not going to answer the question the way the moderator or Biden wants! She’s talking directly to the people!
Woot!
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 2, 2008 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Rules be damned.
But then again, this campaign’s been one hail mary after another for the past couple months. At this point, I think that all Biden has to do is hold serve and he’ll be fine.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
i dunno...
…i dunno if biden practiced as much as palin has, its kinda obvious she’s been getting some very serious coaching… she’s probably gonna win tonite at this rate, just don’t know what it can do for the campaign at this point.
"He wont have anything. 1 man, 0 tools."~ hiafex bout longhorn...
What the hell kind of question is that?
“Are you interested in defending his Health Care plan?” Well, not really.
HOOOOOOLY SHIT
“I call that the ultimate bridge to nowhere.”
We have our first zinger.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
I think she started strong.
She’s fading right now, though. Biden finally got a chance to talk cold hard facts, and that’s where he can win.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
Apparently...
…the game plan for Palin has been, when in doubt, talk about ending corruption on Wall Street and oppressive government regulation.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 2, 2008 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Happened right there again.
Asked a specific question about mortgages, and all of a sudden it’s back to the corruption on Wall Street and regulation.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
she's been cramming so much this week that
palin is gonna talk about whatever she wants to talk about. no matter what the question is.
i guess iffle can’t stop her because she’d be biased
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
"I haven't commented on many specifics"
Well no shit.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Anyone playing Palin Bingo?
http://palinbingo.com/Palinbingo.jpg.jpg
I would put it as a picture, but it is way too big and I am not sure how to resize stuff on here.
Actually, I am.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Ha ha
That’s great. I wish I had printed one out to play!
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
"Football is like having a fling once a week. Baseball is a relationship." - oc
by The Best Micah on Oct 2, 2008 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions
YOu think that's funny?
Check this out, I nearly spit my soda out
http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/8/L/2/palin-facebook-page.jpg
Just click on it to enlarge and read.
OMG
Freaking hilarious.
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
"Football is like having a fling once a week. Baseball is a relationship." - oc
by The Best Micah on Oct 2, 2008 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm really, really trying to stay down the middle here.
I’ve stated before that I’m an Obama supporter, but I’m honestly trying to be level-headed and non-partisan here.
But wow, she’s sounding really bad right now. And it seems like Biden is trying a little…too hard to not be patronizing or antagonistic.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
She was hiding the accent at first
But its slipping
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
biden don't raise your voice at the moderator (a woman!)
palin, don’t use the word “rape”
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
Exactly what I was thinking.
If you’re going to win the woman vote, Governor Palin, you probably want to avoid that word in any context.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
I'm ready to bail on this
In 20 minutes and watch It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Palin did nothing to convince me she’s even somewhat competent.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
kind of reminds me of curb your enthusiasm
where larry david was on the producers. he started off great and then forgot a line. then of course he recovered and was awesome
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
Talking point No. 2: The surge is working.
Over/Under: 9.5 mentions by Palin.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
What is this August?
Seriously though, it’s the one subject they have. It’s amazing how Iraq has slowed as an issue in this election. Granted, there were unforeseen circumstances, but if you asked me 9 months ago I would’ve guessed it’d be a much hotter topic.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Umm...
I think she realized she screwed up on her answer vis-a-vis gay civil unions and rights, when the moderator asked her about it, and decided to fall back on “I’m against gay marriage.”
This whole exchange was amazing to me
Can anyone imagine this being said as recently as 4 years ago? Both parties agreeing that gays essentially have all the same rights as heteros, marriage in everything but name? That’s a pretty big shift from 2004, at least in the language being used if not the practical application.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
I can imagine it...
because it happened.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6338458/
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Guess I'd forgotten that.
I just don’t remember it coming up so prominently, but then again I didn’t watch each debate in 2004 since I was completely disgusted with both candidates.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
Is anyone watching on CNN?
They have this graph across the bottom of undecided Ohio voters broken down between men and women and its funny the difference in reactions to the same response.
Women
are digging Biden.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
i don't htink they love him
they just hate palin
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
That's what happens
when you are over-rehearsed and forced to step out of that comfort zone for any length of time.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Did you see the look Biden just gave? It was a “is this chick serious?” look.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
OK, again, this is me trying to stay in the middle.
But it is really, really frustrating when Palin doesn’t stay on topic.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
That might be the dagger.
I mean it. That might be the ballgame right there.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
I was just about to type that
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
"Football is like having a fling once a week. Baseball is a relationship." - oc
by The Best Micah on Oct 2, 2008 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions
How can you use
“He voted against the surge!” and “he voted against funding for soldiers,” when he’s opposed the war from the get-go?
I was thinking Daphne from Scooby Doo
I expect a “jinkies!” any moment.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
woah
she just dropped a hard “H”. Who said anything about the holocaust?
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
On the ol' Palin Scoreboard so far...
-Rape
-Holocaust
If she calls Obama a darkie or something like that, we’ll have an epic fail trifecta..
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
a mccain advisor
a few weeks ago said they were tired of dodging obama’s spears (referring to attacks)
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
Threadjack my own thread
I’d suggest everybody turn on FX and watch “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” if you haven’t. Dark comedy with Danny DeVitto. Alright, enjoy.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
great show
at least season 1 and 2. season 3 on netflix queue
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
AHHHHHHHHH
someone please ban her from saying nuclear!!!!!!!!!!!!! And talibani! And did she call him O’Biden? Did he get an extra vowel added to his name?
i wanna talk about afghanistan!
i got these notes on it, lemme talk about it please
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
take the drudge poll
right now its 76% to 21% palin winning the debate!
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
I wonder why...
they also had McCain winning his debate comfortably, which clearly was not the case..
Zogby
His polls are a joke. You must register to poll and then he send you a form. I just ignore everything he says. No one takes him seriously.
Gawd
Could she be anymore snide? And trying to act cute. Maybe she should act like she has substance rather than being cute. Just a suggestion.
she's like
i’m gonna zing you little buddy okay?
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
Does anyone think she's doing well?
I can understand why some people said the Obama/McCain debate was close. I have no clue how anyone could consider this so though.
conservative pundits will say she won
and a handful of moderates
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
Fox News
I bet fox will say she won in a landslide. I wonder what RNC talking points will they give to Hannity.
Woah woah woah
“John McCain, who knows how to win a war…”
She does realize that we lost in Vietnam, right? And that McCain was taken prisoner?
HOLY SHIT
FOLKSY! FOLKSY! FOLKSY! CONSARNIT! DAGNABBIT! THERE YOU GO AGAIN, JOE, DAGNABBIT!
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
propane is clean burning
and american. and he can probably see mexico from his porch
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
I never understood
the purpose of a married couple sitting in separate bathtubs out in the middle of no where and what it had to do with Cialis.
My lord
In the past 3 minutes…
“Shout out”
“Lame attempt at a joke”
Called her brother “Best teacher in the year”
GOVERNOR OF A HUGE ENERGY PRODUCING STATE!
This is Folksy 101. It’s really kind of cute, the whole “not knowing anything about the issues” thing.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer