Kevin Goldstein on the next Rays

by Adam J. Morris on Oct 10, 2008 12:04 PM CDT Comment 42 comments

Kevin Goldstein looks at some teams in the A.L. that haven't been good for a while, to see who might be the next version of the Tampa Bay Rays...

The Rangers, of course, are included, and there is lots to feel good about, according to Goldstein. His conclusion:

Outlook: They have committed ownership, a nice young talent base, a loaded minor league system, an excellent recent track record in the draft and with their international signings, and a smart front office. All the ingredients are there to make the Rangers a clear winner in the "next big thing" race. That said, I expect this to be a slow burn as opposed to a sudden Rays-like leap forward. I wouldn't categorize them as a strong buy for 2009. Expect a winning record, but I don't think they'll be a real threat in the West until 2010.

The "committed ownership" I might quibble about, but really, this is a pretty glowing review of the direction the organization is heading...

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2010

seems to be on par with what most of us here have been saying

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Oct 10, 2008 12:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Weakness of the West

With the A.L. West being one of the weaker divisions next year, as of right now, the Rangers will have a decent shot of getting in the playoffs. And once you get in, anything can happen.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 12:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

its weak 2-4
but even if they lose Tex, K-rod and garland the angels should still be a 92-94 win team next year. even without our expected improvement, im not sure the angels will take a steep decline next year. but by 2010 i think we might catch up with them.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Oct 10, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anaheim

88-74 Pythag record this year. They’ll have to play better in 2009 than they did this year to be a 92-94 win team.

by Adam J. Morris on Oct 10, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the angels

are still a pretty old team with some ugly contracts. Look at their 2008 roster. Then subtract out the production they got from Tex and K-Rod, as those two are almost assuredly on their way out. Note the ages of Anderson and Hunter, and realize that Vlad plays much older than his age.

They are a team anchored by veterans in their 30’s and supplemented by largely unproven players in their 20s. They should be able to keep a strong rotation and bullpen, but their offense is set to decline in the near future.

by clark on Oct 10, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say...

…Tex is almost assuredly on his way out. He’s following the money.

Also, how old do you honestly think Guerrero is? I can promise you he is significantly older than his listed age. Sneaky Dominicans!

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by FuturePants on Oct 10, 2008 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anderson is likely gone as well.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i guess you probably meant

more that we’ll feast on the As and Ms and have a better shot at the wild card, which could be true. but i dont think itll be enough of an effect to compete with a supremely loaded rest of the AL

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Oct 10, 2008 12:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sudden leap forward

I know the Rays had a massive turnaround this past year, but they’ve been “slow burning” since they existed.

That said, I don’t think it’s out of the question to think you’ll see 85-90 wins next year (assuming obvious improvements are made, and development of young players isn’t stunted."

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Oct 10, 2008 12:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nay, the Rangers will rule the West next year.

Sure, a conservative approach that allows young-uns to grow is in order, but if I let my imagination go wild, I come up with this roster:

One of Teagarden/Salty + Millwood or Harrison + Andrus + Nippert + Poveda for Oswalt.
Millwood if they feel they need a veteran. Harrison if they want an up and coming prospect.

Sign Kerry Wood. Sign Casey Blake.

Max Ramirez + David Murphy + Neil Ramirez + Jose Vallejo for James Shields
MaxRam becomes their DH. Murphy takes Gabe Gross’ position.

Lineup
Kinsler, 2B
Young, SS
Bradley, LF/DH
Hamilton, CF
Blalock, DH/1B
Davis, 1B/DH
Cruz, RF
Blake, 3B
Laird, C

Others: Byrd OF, Boggs OF, Vazquez or Duran UIF, Teagarden or Salty C

Rotation:
Oswalt
Shields
Millwood or Harrison
Padilla
BMac/Hurley/Mendoza/Gabbard/Feldman/Hunter

Bullpen
Wood (CL)
CJ Wilson
frankfranKKKKK
Benoit
Madrigal
Rupe
Gordon/AJ/Loe/Littleton/Mathis/Lizard/White

Still need a SS after 2009, but I think this roster is 90+ wins. I don’t think I would do it this way, though. I’m as disinclined to see the Rangers move Andrus as I am Feliz/Holland/Main/Perez.

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Oct 10, 2008 12:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Feliz will the end year as our closer.

and Holland as our ace.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and Diamond will be key in the bullpen as well.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Diamond

have the worst control on the planet both prior to and after his injury? Is Mr. 200-BB’s Nolan going to show him how to improve it?

"Some mornings it just doesn't seem worth it to gnaw through the leather straps."
- Emo Phillips

by Rangerchick on Oct 10, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he will.

Thomas isn’t going to let himself fail.

I hope.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Getting close.

"until they are good, they are not good" - seth

by Chase Irwin on Oct 10, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

give it time

he just got back from injury

"Calmer than you are... "

by Walter Sobchak on Oct 10, 2008 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That package for Oswalt?

I’d probably take it in a heartbeat with Harrison instead of Millwood (don’t want to risk it, even if he does return to dominance in the NL and away from RBIA).

Pity Ed Wade still thinks we can contend.

by jonthefon on Oct 10, 2008 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It seems that the best move for the Astros this offseason is

to trade Oswalt. They have very little on the way from the farm. They need some young ML talent to keep themselves in playoff contention while Berkman and Lee are still hitting well.

Boston would be a good trade partner for the ’Stros. Buchholz, Bowden, and Lowrie would be good additions.

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Oct 10, 2008 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know if the he'd waive the 'no-trade' clause for any team, though.

Go Rangers!

by rooster on Oct 10, 2008 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hell

If we could get decent offers for Tejada (unlikely) and Carlos Lee’s contracts, that’d be good too. I’d rather rebuild now than go through a long decline to the bottom (wasting someone like Pence’s prime).

by jonthefon on Oct 10, 2008 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

first Mendoza, now Diamond

can’t say you don’t like the underdogs.

"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve

by tricer on Oct 10, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mendoza was a huge disappointment for me this year.

although we saw flashes of his ability time to time, his inability to bring it bring it every time out killed him early on, then his inability to bring it from pitch to pitch absolutely destroyed him.

If we do actually get something good out of Diamond next year, I just see it as bonus.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we saw a flash once

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Oct 10, 2008 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I saw it about 4 or 5 times

His two bullpen appearances when he initially came off the DL, then a couple of starts.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

After reading Derek Lowe's prospect retro

I think Mendoza still has a chance.

by tyd3311 on Oct 11, 2008 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He does

but the team shouldn’t be giving him too much of that chance in Arlington next year. He needs to gain some confidence and consistency, and earn that chance.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Oct 11, 2008 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I, too

am absolutely on the Diamond bandwagon for next year. I think he will be a revelation. Another year removed from TJ, an entire offseason to recover, no more nagging foot injury thanks to an August surgery (if I remember correctly), improved secondary stuff, and his incredible tenacity (or VAG+, in the parlance of our times) all suggest he is due for a breakout year.

by clark on Oct 10, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That said, I expect this to be a slow burn as opposed to a sudden Rays-like leap forward.

I agree with this, and I’ve felt strongly that saying this team should be shooting for 2009 is way too optimistic. I’ve felt like it’s going to be 2010 at the earliest.

by philkid3 on Oct 10, 2008 3:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Another quote from the article.

Other than the catching, the Rangers don’t have much up-the-middle talent, as their two best non-catching prospects at those four positions—shortstop Elvis Andrus and center fielder Julio Borbon—are generally overrated speedsters without secondary skills.

I’ve been wondering if I was the only person to suspect this.

by philkid3 on Oct 10, 2008 3:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Thats just a stupid comment

Elvis hit .300 this year as a 19 year old in AA. Borbon is fast but he also hit well over .300 and made AA his first full season as a pro. Are there areas you would like to see them improve on…absolutely but to put a blanket statement like that is just dumb.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Oct 10, 2008 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Note the "secondary skills" part.

by philkid3 on Oct 10, 2008 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, overrated is not the same thing as:

bad.

by philkid3 on Oct 10, 2008 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Borbon is underrated.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure.

I think we around here overrate him a little, but I don’t see him necessarily getting as much interest as he deserves in prospect discussions outside of LSB.

I do think fans are prone to like a guy for being speedy and having a high batting average.

by philkid3 on Oct 10, 2008 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like his baseball IQ

to go along with the tools.

by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ahem

Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.

by Brian Thomas on Oct 11, 2008 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

more related to Borbon than Andrus, right? Only Cahill hates Andrus.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Oct 11, 2008 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have advocated trading Andrus, not b/c I think Andrus will be a bust, like Borbon

But b/c I think he has the largest difference in perceived vs. actual value. If we absolutely had to give up one of the jewels of the farm to get a top of the rotation starter, he’d be the guy I’d be least sorry to see go.

And contrary to the Mayor of Exaggerationville, thedirkahuntatron’s claims, I don’t hate SlapnScurry Borbon either. I just think he is fool’s gold.

I really hope I’m wrong. If I am, no one will need to dig up old quotes. I’ll be the first to admit it.

Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.

by Brian Thomas on Oct 12, 2008 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't hate him

Just like him about as much as I like all 717 OPS SS who lead the league in errors.

I believe all fast guys get horribly overrated. I really want Andrus to actually, you know, do something before we annoint him the next great thing.

"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky

by DJCahill on Oct 12, 2008 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's just throw a blanket over all ages

and assume that a 19 year old should do as well as a 23 year old in a given league, why don’t we? And part of the problem with doing that is that, unless you’re a little crazy, you’d be pretty happy with the .295/.350 part from a 19-20 year old two-way SS in AA, so all you really have to quarrel with offensively is that he didn’t hit for power, which is greatly mitigated by the fact that he was 19.

Hanley Ramirez hit .275/.327/.403 in Low A when he was 19. Derek Jeter hit .295/.376/.394 in Low A when he was 19. Jimmy Rollins hit .244/.306/.354 in High A when he was 19. Jose Reyes hit .287/.331/.425 in AA when he was 19. All of these guys had error issues at different points.

Your expectations for what he should have done at his level and age are a little ridiculous.

by Brett Perryman on Oct 12, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs