The Rays and the importance of defense
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 10, 2008 1:00 PM CDT
53 comments
A few of the comments in my earlier post suggested that the value of defense is somewhat ephemeral, that it isn't something that really can be proven or can improve much except on the margins.
As a counter-point, I'd encourage you to look at the Tampa Bay Rays.
Offensively, the Rays are the same team this year, when they won the A.L. East, as they were last year, when they had the worst record in baseball. In 2008, the Rays scored 774 runs. In 2007, the Rays scored 782 runs.
The improvement by the Rays between 2007 and 2008 has been in the area of run prevention. The 2007 Rays allowed 944 runs...the worst total in baseball (worse, even, than the 2007 Rangers). The 2008 Rays allowed 671 runs.
That's a swing of 273 runs. Now, that has to be the pitching, right? I mean...the defense could have improved some, and contributed a little bit...but that improvement is mostly because of Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza and James Shields and those guys. Right?
Apparently not. Let's compare peripherals:
| 2007 | 2007 rate | 2008 | 2008 rate | |
| Strikeouts | 1194 | 7.52/9IP | 1143 | 7.06/9IP |
| Walks | 568 | 3.58/9IP | 526 | 3.25/9IP |
| Homers | 199 | 1.25/9IP | 166 | 1.02/9IP |
The Rays in 2007 were the best in the A.L. in striking batters out, and were near the bottom of the league in walking batters and allowing homers.
The Rays in 2008 were 4th best in the A.L. in striking batters out, and were a little below average in walking batters and allowing homers.
And the Rays went from allowing the most runs in the A.L. to allowing the 2nd fewest in the A.L. That's not a change that can be explained by the improved peripherals.
There was improvement in the walk and homer rate, improvement that would more than offset the decline in the strikeout rate. But still 33 fewer homers allowed, and 42 fewer walks, doesn't explain a savings of 273 runs. That's over a run and a half per game.
What's the explanation, then? The 2008 Rays allowed 1443 total hits. The 2007 Rays allowed 1649 hits.
The 2008 Rays had a BABIP of .280, the lowest in the A.L.
The 2007 Rays had a BABIP of .332, the highest in the A.L.
That's why the Rays went from cellar dwellars to first place in one season. The pitching improved, absolutely...but if the Rays play defense like they did in 2007, they are still a sub-.500 team.
The single biggest factor in the Rays' improvement from last year was going from the worst defensive team in the league to the best defensive team in the league.
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And a lot of luck I'm guessing
BABIP swing of .05 seems pretty huge.
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by Wes Cox on Oct 10, 2008 1:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Two swings
2007 was bad defensively, so that contributed to the bad BABiP.
2008 was good defensively, so that contributed to the good BABiP.
So remove the bad, that’s one swing, and add the good, that’s another. I don’t think it accounts for the entire swing but a good chunk of it.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
by WyoRanger on Oct 10, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
a major complaint of mine
I think people tend to give too much credit to luck.
In life and in baseball.
"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve
by tricer on Oct 10, 2008 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Basketball
is the sport with the least amount of luck.
by tyd3311 on Oct 10, 2008 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you prefer...
…you can think of it as noise, or fluctuations within the expected limits of the sample size.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 10, 2008 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
call it randomness if the word luck is bothersome.
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by t ball on Oct 10, 2008 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are a lot of things that we can observe, but we don’t know how to measure or quantify. You might say that these phenomena are caused by “luck”, I’d prefer to think that we just aren’t able to decipher, or assign objective data to, the why.
In this instance we can see that Tampa has allowed a BABIP below average. You can call this luck, or randomness. I prefer to think that perhaps they have better than average defenders, or position them better than the average team.
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
by tricer on Oct 11, 2008 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I’m sure they have better defenders and positioned them well. I’m also sure that randomness plays a part in every aspect of life every single day. It’s very uncomfortable to think about, but I feel it’s true.
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by t ball on Oct 11, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I certainly acknowledge randomness
but I guess I believe the old saying that high school coaches used to say, “luck is when preparation meets opportunity”. And sometimes I think that the subconscious plays a large role in our decision making, and people that seem fortuituous are actually more in tune with their instincts. Entrepeneurs that envision a market before it actually exists, for example.
I also believe that oftentimes, we are not keen enough to see, or measure, relationships between things that actually exist. As an example, hundreds of years ago, people that avoided comminicable diseases may have been considered “lucky”, when in truth, they weren’t “lucky” – they just had good hygiene, even though they probably had no idea that those practices helped them avoid disease.
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
by tricer on Oct 11, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good hygiene
Actually the probably just had stronger immune systems, but I get your drift. I don’t disagree with a single thing you say. My vague point is towards those like Josey Wales who insist that everything bad that happens needs some sort of scapegoat to lay blame on, and everything good that happens was because someone was smart or worked hard or had grit. Pitchers are injured? Daniels traded for an injury prone guy, or the trainer/pitching coach should be fired. Some of those injuries last year were just plain bad luck.
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by t ball on Oct 11, 2008 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
enjoyed the discussion
Luck is an interesting topic in regards to baseball, and other things.
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
by tricer on Oct 11, 2008 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
excellent analysis AJM
kudos.
"So he tore it up in AA. Yippee. ...Max Ramirez be damned." - bigsteve
by tricer on Oct 10, 2008 1:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This is so dumb, AJM
You’re focusing on the wrong part of the story.
If we had better pitchers they’d be using their good pitching to get hitters to hit the ball right to the fielders and the range of a good-faced hard-working cliche-spouting all-around good-guy guy like Michael Young wouldn’t be an issue.
We need to stop arguing about this and just trade for better pitchers.
Arias and Hurley for Lincecum (SF needs a SS), Salty and Michael Schlact for Roy Halladay (Toronto needs a catcher), then sign CC Sabathia to a free agent contract using dollars (he need dollars to buy pants) and I bet you our fielding numbers would look a lot better next season.
And using Tampa Bay as an example is dumb cause they have awesome pitchers, like Edwin Jackson who is a STUD, period. Just look at his ERA!!!
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 10, 2008 1:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
thats so raven.
i mean seth.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 10, 2008 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense is like global warming
you know it makes a difference, but it’s hard to give direct proof as to what degree. A lot of disagreements on the value of defense are based on the lack of confidence in the metric that describe it. If people don’t want to be persuaded that defense matters, it’s easy to point out the discrepancies between the different defense metrics and resort to ad hominem arguments.
I am waiting for that hit f/x thing to arrive and save the day
by Telegraph on Oct 10, 2008 1:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sharky would say
There’s no proof that defense is caused by human activity.
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by t ball on Oct 10, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they are both caused by human inactivity
by Telegraph on Oct 10, 2008 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
o_O
"until they are good, they are not good" - seth
by Chase Irwin on Oct 12, 2008 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a good analysis
By chance do you have slugging and BA RISP for the Rays staff 07 vs 08? It’d be interesting to see if they gave up fewer XBH, and how they performed with runners in scoring position.
Also, I’ve read that the bullpen is a lot better.. how’d they do with save % and inherited runners scoring? That would show if the Rays got better with holding leads 07 vs 08, which is the impression.
by mattrpav on Oct 10, 2008 1:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ok.. found them on my own.
These are all pitching stats so they are ‘against’
2007 SLG – .467
2008 SLG – .400
2007 OBP – .358
2008 OBP – .314
2007 Total bases – 2656
2008 Total bases – 2200
2007 SV/BS – 28/21
2008 SV/BS – 52/16
2007 QS – 73
2008 QS – 82
Looks like they cut down on getting hit “hard” and held on to leads better. (Maybe even had more leads than they had last year?) Don’t think you can call it cut and dry that it was just defense that made them better from ’07 to ’08.
by mattrpav on Oct 10, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say it was just defense
I said defense was the biggest factor.
And I don’t see how any of the stats you referenced above has anything to do with the impact of the defense on the reduction in runs allowed.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 10, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say it had anything to do with the defense.
I think it shows that the pitching got better and the bullpen held leads. They dropped over 100 points in OPS, and 2/3rds of it was the SLG % going down. That would indicate that they were not hit as hard— the Rays pitching staff gave up 51 less doubles and triples. They also had far more save opportunities, which means they had leads earlier in games, and held on to them better— better hitting and a better bullpen
I’m not saying that defense wasn’t improved, just saying I don’t think it was mostly the defense.
by mattrpav on Oct 10, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay
They dropped over 100 points in OPS.
They allowed opponents to hit .246, with a .280 BABIP.
They allowed opponents in 2007 to hit .290, with a .332 BABIP.
44 points of batting average. Given that batting average is included in OBP and slugging percentage, that means that 88 of the 100 point drop in OPS is as a result of lower batting average, which is almost entirely due to the better defense.
The bullpen held leads…so what? What does that have to do with whether it is the pitching or the defense is better?
They gave up 51 fewer doubles and triples…isn’t there a real good chance that that is due in no small part to having a better defense, with Evan Longoria stopping balls down the line that would have gotten by last year, and better defensive outfielders running balls down?
I just don’t understand your argument here.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 10, 2008 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to me
like less doubles and triples could also be outfield defense. If it doesn’t get past the OF, it’s a single.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Oct 10, 2008 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
couldn't this just prove that
TB pitchers allowed line drives more often in 2007 than in 2008?
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
by willamos2 on Oct 10, 2008 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Some of that BABIP swing
is luck and/or line drives, but defense is a large part of it.
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by t ball on Oct 10, 2008 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
seems like a guess. Or am I missing the data verifying it?
by Back Door Yakker on Oct 10, 2008 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing
but it seems intuitive. There is no doubt that their defense has been better, but I’m just guessing that they’ve also been a bit luckier than last year as well.
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by t ball on Oct 10, 2008 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Everett
So is AJM on the Sign Adam Everett bandwagon? AJM’s posts on defense have almost convinced me to jump on it myself.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Oct 10, 2008 1:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily
I do think, though, the team defense — particularly at SS and 3B — is an area of great weakness, that needs to be addressed, or at least acknowledged.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 10, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SS?
If not Everett, then who you got in mind? I think Hardy (which you mentioned previously) is off limits. Are we looking at a Guzman, Cabrera, Renteria type here? I have no idea on those 3 defensive prowess, but Guzman had an OPS of 786 and the other two were at 700 or so.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Oct 10, 2008 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rays' defense
Was it really the worst in the league in 2007?
Was it really the best in the league in 2008?
They did improve errors-wise by 24. Did you really mean to say that they just improved their team defense rather than all the hyperbole there? And does this really address the MY situation, which concerns one position over one season rather than becoming the “best defensive team in the league?”
I don’t think EG’s arguing about the value of defense. He’s arguing about the wisdom making this specific move at this time.
by shroomer on Oct 10, 2008 1:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If you use DER...
…which I think is the best way to summarize team defense…
Tampa was first in baseball this year:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204024
They were last in 2007:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=418030
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 10, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BABIP
I’m no expert, but it is my understanding that BABIP is some combination of defense and luck. Were the Rays, in part, luckier in 08 than 07.
Having said that, I agree we need to improve our defense.
by blue glove dooshy on Oct 10, 2008 1:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind
That Tampa’s one year turnaround is exceptional, and a great example of cause and effect. I don’t suppose Adam intended to say it’s a model, to which one would have to adhere strictly. However it is a stunning example of what can happen if
- defense is overall improved
- pitching maybe matures a bit and is better
It’s an example of taking charge of games, rather than playiing them and trying hard.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Oct 10, 2008 2:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
defense
I would be borderline giddy if the Rangers picked up Adam Everett and moved Young to third next season.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
by trza on Oct 10, 2008 3:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would sign Adam Everett to play 3rd base
then reposition MY so that he stands right behind second base
by Telegraph on Oct 10, 2008 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
redundant
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 10, 2008 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah but lol is used very liberally
I would say 90% of the time lol is used, the user does not laugh out loud.
by tyd3311 on Oct 12, 2008 8:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense and pitching go hand in hand, of course.
In this case, though, the improvement is largely due to defense. Here’s why. The types of balls in play that most commonly go for hits are line drives. Rough estimates of the batted ball types that end up as hits are about 75% of LD, 25% of groundballs, 10% of flyballs (that aren’t HR of course), 70% of bunts, and 1% IF flyballs.
I created a composite LD% of the SP in 2007 and 2008 by using the LD% and multiplying it by the starter’s IP divided by team starter IP.
2007: 18.0% (966 team starter IP)
2008: 18.6% (1005 team starter IP)
The starters, at least, didn’t significantly reduce the LD%, which is the easiest way for starters to help defense efficiency.
Looking at those team stats on hardball times is fun. Toronto is the reciprocal of Texas — all pitching and defense and no hitters (2nd DER, 1st FIP, 2nd to last OPS). Toronto was 10 games over .500, while Texas was just a hair below. Hmmm . Pitching+Defense > Hitting??? But, neither sufficient in and of themselves.
Overall, pitching performance — components ratio and playability of batted balls — changed very little from last year. Gotta think that a significant fraction of the reduction of BABIP came from defense efficiency.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 10, 2008 3:16 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs
Some of it is pure luck, too
A lot of what happens in the world is random or luck, though most people refuse to admit it. The Rays got much better at defense and it helped their pitching a lot. But they also outperformed their Pythag record a bit, and that huge swing in BABIP has to include some luck.
My guess is that the Rangers were incredibly bad at pitching and defense, AND incredibly unlucky in 2008. The Rangers’ team offense had by far the highest BABIP in the AL at .325. Minnesota was next at .316. Does anyone know what the pitchers’ BABIP against was, collectively? I can’t find that stat for pitchers as a team.
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by t ball on Oct 10, 2008 5:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rangers pitchers had the highest LD% in the AL.
All the way around, the Rangers were bad expect at the plate.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 10, 2008 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's foolish
In my opinion to get too far out on a cause and effect limb that can’t be proven (or at least hasn’t been, IMO). There are just too many other possible explanations for some of the stats that are relied on, incrimentally, to reach the conclusion. Just as one example, it could be that the reduction in Ks is attributable to a small shift in focus from striking hitters out to inducing weak contact, resulting in a lower BABIP without necessarily any increase in defensive ability.
by Back Door Yakker on Oct 10, 2008 5:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
But there is absolutely nothing
that points to their defense not being better. They added better defensive players, and every stat and scouting report says their defense was better. In my opinion, it’s foolish to go so far out on a limb to say their defense didn’t make a difference.
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by t ball on Oct 10, 2008 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one said
Defense doesn’t make a difference. But, the support for the argument that an improved defense was the biggest reason for going from cellar to first in one year just isn’t presented here. Arguing that the pitching couldn’t have as much of an effect as defense since strikeouts went down from the prior year (which by no means means that the pitching was worse), and then pointing to the defense based, in large part, on a better BABIP against (which does not prove, or frankly even directly evidence, that the defense improved (though I’ll admit that other stats do)), is not very convincing to me. But I see that there are a lot of buyers, so to each their own.
by Back Door Yakker on Oct 13, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does this mean you have to apologize to McCarver?
In the good-ole-days, McCarver would pull out the cliche about “Pitching and Defense win championships”. This would be followed by a quick AJM retort about “Pitching and Offense… with Defense being a distant third”.
Your recent analysis has been pretty convincing, but I hate to see anything pointing to McCarver being anything more than a Jeter loving idiot.
by Oracle Galvez on Oct 13, 2008 8:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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