A couple of ESPN notes
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 13, 2008 9:25 PM CDT
61 comments
Keith Law has some notes from the AFL, and has comments on a couple of Rangers prospects:
• Texas outfielder Julio Borbon has great bat control and should make a ton of contact, and he covers a ton of ground in center. His plate discipline isn't great, however, and he has at best a 40 arm, which is a little light for a center fielder.
• More great moments in player discipline: Texas third baseman John Whittleman popping up a bunt and then staring down the third-base coach (Kansas City's Terry Bradshaw) who gave him the bunt sign. I'd be in favor of an AFL rule banning sacrifices, but John, it's not Terry's fault you didn't get the bunt down.
Borbon isn't going to be an All-Star, but the more I read and hear about him, the more I come to believe that, if he hits .300 in the majors, he'll have a nice 8-10 year career as a solid major league CF'er. And I think the chances of him hitting .300 in the majors are pretty good.
And Rob Neyer was nice enough to lead off his ALCS chat session this afternoon with a whine from me:
Adam J. Morris (Houston, Texas): MLB scheduled 1 game apiece on Saturday and Sunday. But on Monday, they decided we needed two games, with one of them being scheduled in the middle of the day so that most of the country is working during most of the game. Why does Bud Selig hate us?
Rob Neyer: (4:39 PM ET ) Bud Selig doesn't hate us, but he does love TV networks, and that's who schedules the games.
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Then
why does Selig allow the networks to schedule games at times that are not in the best interest of the game?
Answer : $$$
by chrisR on Oct 13, 2008 9:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Borbon
may be able to carve out a decent eight year career, but if he’s our CF and he doesn’t improve his approach, we will not have above average CF performance for whatever of that time he’s our CF.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 13, 2008 9:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Let me ask this
What would you say he’s likely to do defensively in CF, in terms of runs above/below average over the course of a season?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 13, 2008 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s the thing. I’d guess a few runs above average, but I just see such electrifying range to project him as a top of the league defender, especially when you discount him a touch for his arm. And without much power and without the willingness to supplement that 290-300 BA enough to be a top of the order on-base guy, I’m just not sure that the range is such that you make up for all of that.
I’ve only watched him a handful of times, though. Maybe I’m still underrating his jumps and range. But you’re really putting a lot of weight on that aspect of his game without a lot of evidence that he is an elite defender.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 13, 2008 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would you consider Coco Crisp...
…to be an apt comparison?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 13, 2008 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would guess that Crisp is a notch or two better defensively. Offensively I think Borbon will be a notch better.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 13, 2008 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Crisp’s career line is .280./331/.409. It might be a bit presumptuous of me to project Borbon better than that. He could hit for a higher average, but his OBP/SLG might not be.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 13, 2008 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know Parksie is a huge Borbon fan, for what that's worth
I’ll page him to this thread the next time he pops online so he can chime in.
by Joey Matschulat on Oct 13, 2008 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't you just summon him using the Parks Signal?
Which I can only assume is done by using a huge spotlight to project onto a cloud the image of a horse head throwing back a shot of whiskey?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 14, 2008 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Callis
Is doing a chat for the PHI/LAD game. I’m hoping for LA to blow it open so I can sneak in some prospect talk.
Just in case anyone was interested.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
by TheBZA on Oct 13, 2008 10:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ask him
about what Adam and I are talking about, just how elite Borbon’s range is. Callis is a pretty big fan of Borbon’s so he may have a good answer for that.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 13, 2008 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defensively?
Or phrase it so offense is factored in as well.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
by TheBZA on Oct 13, 2008 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defensively and in particular his range. We all know he’s good, but I’m curious if he projects him as like 70+.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 13, 2008 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Submitted.
Doubt he responds now that it’s tied though.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
by TheBZA on Oct 13, 2008 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doubt
We get an answer, he’s choosing to go with such gems as “When is Casey Blake a free agent?” However, I found this humorous.
After ripping McCarver, someone asked Jim if he’d be as harsh if the game was on ESPN. His answer:
“I don’t work for ESPN, so yes.”
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
by TheBZA on Oct 13, 2008 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at Aaron Fitt's profile
in their top ten, his comments are that his speed is a 70 and that he has plus range. I can’t say that I’ve seen enough of him actually running down balls (or making throws for that matter) to have a really, really strong opinion, and that seems like it supports more what Adam is saying than what I am.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 13, 2008 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't seen him...
…I’m just going on what the people who have seen him have written. And really, I doubt I could make a real good judgment on his range anyway, if I did watch him.
A lot of the folks I’ve read, though — the people at BA and Law in particular — seem to think he’s got big-time range, and has good enough instincts to put his speed to good use, rather than being just another Ramon Nivar out there.
Defense in the minors is really hard to judge, though…with offense, you may have questions about whether a swing or approach with translate at the majors, but still, you can look at an EQA or a AVG/OBP/SLG line and have a real good idea what the guy can do. It is hard to get everyone on board with a set of defensive stats at the major league level that works, though, and the best ones, such as PMR or +/-, or even RZR or ZR, aren’t available at the minor league level.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 13, 2008 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So at this point
Worst case, what can we expect from him defensively? Corey Patterson?
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
by TheBZA on Oct 13, 2008 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that
was actually the main thing that I meant to say, and I forgot to type it. Fitt said that Borbon has plus instincts defensively. That’s what I think is the big key as well.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 13, 2008 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Borbon
For what it is worth, I think Borbon has big-time range. 70 range. His plus speed allows him to recover from the occasional route mishap.
Some complain about his arm, but his glove-to-hand transfer is fluid and he puts himself in a good position to throw. I don’t think his arm is a liability. It’s definitely not a plus, but I don’t think it’s Ecksteinian either.
by jparks77 on Oct 14, 2008 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
70
That would equate to one of the, maybe, 6-8 best outfielders in the world, right? There might not be a true 80 outfielder right now, and there are probably only a few 75’s, I’d guess. That is really saying something.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 14, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Borbon
I think it’s fair to say that Borbon will cover more ground than most outfielders in the league. His speed is legit and he reads the ball well off the bat. Not sure if that puts his range in the 6-8 best in the league or not though. Quite possible.
Of course, snapshot analysis is always debatable. My eyes tell me that he is exceptionally quick in the OF and that his range is plus. I’ve spoken with several people who agree with this assessment. At the same time I’ve heard some scouts say that his range is only slightly above-average and that his arm is a definite liability in CF.
When it comes to Borbon, I’d like to think that my assessment is correct. Of course I’m an egotistical glory hound, so take it as such. ;)
by jparks77 on Oct 14, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How similar is he
To, say, Carlos Gomez?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Oct 14, 2008 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gomez
I’d say that Gomez is slightly faster and his arm is definitely stronger, but I think the both have plus range. I’d give the slight physical edge to Gomez and the mental edge to Borbon.
On offense I think Borbon will be the more complete hitter. I think Borbon is a potential starter in CF and I think Gomez is more of a 4th/5th OF type.
by jparks77 on Oct 14, 2008 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gomez is a 4th/5th OF type?
He’s 3 months older than Borbon and has already proven himself as one of the best defensive CF’ers in the game. He has the raw tools to get better offensively, though his approach is an abject disaster. The next bad pitch h lays off of will be his first. Still, I don’t see how you can call him a 4th/5th OF type. He was rushed up to the bigs way before he was ready and he’s more than held his own just on the basis of his defense, imo. If the bat ever develops, he’ll be a real plus.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 14, 2008 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s 3 months older than Borbon and has already proven himself as one of the best defensive CF’ers in the game.
…One of the best CF’ers to make unnecessary leaping catches, maybe.
by oc on Oct 15, 2008 12:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And one of the best to do just about anything else.
One of the best period. Easily Gold Glove deserving.
by philkid3 on Oct 15, 2008 1:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just really question his approach at the plate
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 7:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yah his plate discipline is just horrendous
but I still say that with his defense all he needs is a ~700 OPS to be an effective player, and I freaking love CF defense. He’s so fast and he’s got a strong accurate arm. If he improves his jumps and routes you could be looking a guy who has a three or four year run as the best defensive center fielder in the world, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn't Gomez pretty big too?
Every time I look at him, he looks like he could fill into another type of hitter. Like Hanley’s size… much bigger frame than Borbon
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
by trident on Oct 14, 2008 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's very big
If Gomez can advance his approach, I think he can develop into a very good player. However, after looking at his MiLB numbers and the scouting reports, I don’t really see a player that isn’t always able to execute adjustments.
This is a very coarse stance and I do realize how valuable he is with the glove. I can guarantee that if Gomez was in the Rangers system I would cut him more slack. He has been rushed and his offensive development has taken a hit.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
*that IS always able to execute adjustments
Sorry. I need coffee.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bud Selig knows we hate him. That’s why he comes on here and posts as Steal Home… to get some measure of revenge.
by macromorgan on Oct 13, 2008 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Borbon
I don’t know where these walks are coming from so far, but I would love to see that newfound discerning eye carry over into next spring. A .300 hitter with plus defensive range is one thing, but a .300 hitter who sports an OBP closer to .400 is quite another.
by clark on Oct 13, 2008 11:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If borbon
develops that kind of eye then he is a future all-star. Question: Would a 300/350/480 line be acceptable? Basically, where does his OBP have to be at for him to be considered a good leadoff hitter?
by booyahcaveman on Oct 13, 2008 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be a good leadoff hitter?
It would need to be top four or so on the team to be a good leadoff hitter. And ony a good baseball team in our ballpark, I think that would be about .340 (so, unsurprisingly, right about league average), preferably closer to .350.
But I don’t think it’s smart baseball business to go after someone as a “prototype lead off hitter.” Instead, you get the best collection of nine players you can and then build your lineup based on who you’re starting. In that mold, just because Borbon wouldn’t be best served at leadoff for us, for whatever reason, doesn’t mean he would be a problem starting for us.
So, assuming he can be at least an average centerfielder, a line similar to 300/360/400 would be about what I’d want at minimum to be fine with his performance (with batting average frankly not mattering). More stolen bases at an 80% or better rate and and a higher slugging (about 2 slugging points for evern OBP point at least) would make up for a lower OBP.
by philkid3 on Oct 13, 2008 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: .340-.350 or so
That, also, is a minimum, and you would also be hoping that’s coming from a position where offense is more valuable than it is in centerfield if the guy is starting for your team.
BUT if it’s top four (or so) in the lineup, it’s livable at leadoff.
by philkid3 on Oct 14, 2008 12:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And one more note.
Since our pitching is probably never going to carry us, we’re going to need an above average offense.
Which means your probably going to be hoping for an even higher OBP at lead off, meaning that .340-.350 range is still pushing it.
by philkid3 on Oct 14, 2008 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
leadoff
Why does Borbon have to bat leadoff? Kinsler looked very comfortable there this year so why not stick Borbon in the 9 spot.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 14, 2008 7:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because when Washington sees all that speed...
…he’s going to throw Borbon’s OBP (or lack thereof) out the window and put him in the top spot to be his “sparkplug.”
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Oct 14, 2008 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
See also: Arias, Joaquin.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 14, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
-1
See also: Audition, Late Season
I really think they were throwing Arias out there to try him out, and also showcase him a bit. I think he is gone by ST.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
by Rodney on Oct 14, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's overly optimistic thinking IMO...
…I truly believe that Wash saw Arias fitting the leadoff “profile”.
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Oct 14, 2008 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't Washington
Say something retarded along the line of that he “wished” he had a real leadoff hitter (as opposed to Kinsler’s mighty everything with the bat)?
by FuturePants on Oct 14, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he wanted Kinsler to be in a position
where he could drive in runs.
by tyd3311 on Oct 14, 2008 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinsler's bat
would look very nice in the 3 hole, I believe.
by clark on Oct 14, 2008 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinsler's bat would look good anywhere...
…he’s a good offensive player.
Where managers get in trouble is when they start “slotting” guys based on less important factors like speed and lack of speed.
The best and simplest philosophy is bat your guys who make outs less often higher in the order than the guys who make outs more often.
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Oct 14, 2008 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My favorite philosophy
is to spread the poor hitters throughout the lineup so you aren’t stuck with an inning of 3 .700 OPS guys.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 14, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On top of how well Kinsler
hit the ball, he was on a pace to steal 40 bases and score 140 runs.
The Rangers scored more than 900 runs this year with Kinsler predominantly hitting lead-off.
There’s no reason to move him.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Oct 14, 2008 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but are you talking about much of an offensive player if a guy needs to go in the nine spot? If his OBP is in the 330s and hit SLG doesn’t exceed 400, what do you have? I have no problem with Borbon in the nine slot even if he develops into a 350 OBP guy, because he’d play that leadoff role but not take up an extra AB away from one of the great hitters on the team. But he needs to offer something beyond a nice batting average and volume of SB if he’s going to be an offensive asset.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 14, 2008 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glad you said this...
…“because he’d play that leadoff role but not take up an extra AB away from one of the great hitters on the team”
This is just the type of philosophy I think our manager fails to understand. Make sure your better hitters get the extra ABs.
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Oct 14, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
a .480 SLG from Borbon
would make him a Grady Sizemore lite. I don’t know if even the most generous projections have him at a .480
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
by trident on Oct 14, 2008 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since our pitching is probably never going to carry us
I beg to differ. 2 years.
by tyd3311 on Oct 14, 2008 7:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I really still don't like our prospects at pitching enough to think they're definitely going to carry us.
It could happen, but I don’t see a reason to expect it.
And two years for the Feliz’s and Hollands to reach their ceiling I think is optimistic.
by philkid3 on Oct 14, 2008 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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