Jamey's Latest Top 20 Rangers Prospects
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 8:58 AM CDT
170 comments
I just noticed that Jamey has updated his Top 20 list and was disappointed to find that the list wasn't being discussed here. For those of you who have not seen the latest list, you can find it here: http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081015&content_id=3621969&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex
Noteworthy changes in the list include Holland at #1, Smoak at #3, and Kiker down to #15. Teagarden and Hurley have been added back into the mix.
Jamey, I apologize if you planned to post a note later or if you preferred that your list not be posted here for a discussion thread.
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Vallejo vs Duran
Jamey suggests that Vallejo might be following the Duran career path and being groomed as a utility infielder next year in AAA. I have two questions regarding this potential development:
(1) Does Vallejo now rank ahead of Duran as a prospect and would he be expected to displace Duran in ~2010?
(2) GIven Vallejo’s speed and defensive chops, wouldn’t it make sense to give him a shot in centerfield where his bat might actually be adequate as a major league starter?
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 9:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
CF
With Borbon expected to be ready at the same time or before Vallejo the only reason to move him would be for trade purposes.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 15, 2008 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
or for vallejo to be able to play more positions/be more of a utlitiy player?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
true
I wasn’t thinking along those lines. Spur mentioned him as an adequate ML starter which got me thinking he was wanting vallejo to be moved so he could be our starter
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 15, 2008 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahhhh ok
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Main
I have a feeling that Main is going to end up ahead of players like Andrus and even Smoak on some year end lists. His performance in the FIL was just ridiculous. I’m tempted to rank Main in the top 3.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 9:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Main in the Top3?
Am I correct in assuming that you would then drop Smoak to #4?
On what team’s roster (Blaze, Frisco, RedHawks, Rangers) do you expect to see Main at the end of 2009?
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes...Smoak to 4 or 5
A conservative guess would be Frisco. Main is going to move very quickly in ‘09. I don’t want to suggest that he will reach Arlington, but if that did happen I wouldn’t be that shocked. I think Main could end up being the best pitching prospect we’ve ever had. He’s the real thing.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak at 3 seems high to me, too.
I’d probably put him at 4 or 5 too.
by FuturePants on Oct 15, 2008 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
why does it seem high?
college performance + what we have been hearing recently…
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak has the minor league profile of an all-star
He would be the top prospect in a lot of systems. The fact that Jason Parks, who is one of the more knowledgable people in the world when it cames to the Rangers minor league system, is suggesting that he might rank as low as five is blowing my mind. That says to me that the Rangers have five potential all-stars in their minor league system!
Jason: If you ranked Smoak #5, who would you rank #4?
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think the top 5 is probably where it should be/how it should be
1 or 2 – feliz or holland
3 – smoak
4 or 5 – main or andrus
i think that everyone can agree that our top 10 should include
feliz
holland
smoak
main
andrus
maxram
perez
teagarden
engel beltre
(wildcard)
pretty much, right?
ii mean there is a lot of guys you can make an arguement for at the back end of the top 10
font
borbon
beavan
boscan
ramirez
etc
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
beltre
I wouldn’t put him in the top 10 until he begins to understand the strike zone. Also pitchers who lose a year like Font did have a very difficult road ahead of them.
by bushe on Oct 15, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes however
both have HUGE ceilings (probably will not reach them) and thats the reaosn i put beltre in the top 10
i agree w/ you about font but to me font is a top 15 guy, even in a system as stacked as ours even though he lost a year
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still thinking about my post FIL rankings
As of right now, I have Smoak at #4 and Andrus at #5. I can’t make up my mind.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so question
your top 5 is
feliz
holland
main
smoak/andrus
andrus/smoak
right?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beavan
so let’s assume his velocity returns to working in the low 90s is he still out of that top 5 mix?
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
for me, yes
(i know it was aimed at jparks)
but i think beavan will be just outside that top 5 if that happens
actualy that would put him on the same level as martin perez, which is JUST behind those guys
if all perform next year like this year thats one hell of a top 6-8 guys
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you would say
that beavan is pretty much entrenched in that 2nd tier of pitching prospects?
For me my top tier is holland, feliz and perez (yes i know he is young but just wait he will be a top 10 in baseball guy at least one season during his minor league career)
And the second tier is headed by beavan, kiker, ramirez, ross, et al
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot
Main, he would be in the top tier as well
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good Lord
Beavan is not entrenched anywhere. This is a snapshot in time. Beavan did nothing to disappoint this past season. If anything, he impressed everyone with his maturity and ability to adapt his pitching style.
If his velocity comes back, great. But if he is truly going to be a groundball pitcher, that sort of pitcher doesn’t always need the extra velocity…as we have seen in Mendoza, it can sometimes be a detriment.
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"This is a snapshot in time."
Word.
by Jamey Newberg on Oct 15, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh i wasnt
saying he was. I helped coach a summr lg team against him when i was still in college and he was at irving. At the time a few scouts i talked to where saying he was/is Kevin Brown with a better attitude.
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Beavan a groundball pitcher?
His fastball is a four-seamer, he gave up a lot of home runs this year, and his GO/FO was 1.2.
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beavan throws both a two and a four seam fastball
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you know how much Beavan uses the 2-seamer in games? Is it his primary pitch or something that he is working on?
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He relied heavily
on the two-seamer during the season, but was using his four seamer more in the FIL. During the season he liked to use his 4-seamer against LH.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Jason
That helps true things up for me. I had assumed during the season that his velocity drop and low k-rate was due at least in part to his efforts to develop a 2-seamer. When you mentioned that his FIL performance featured all 4-seamers with a velocity of ~90 MPH, then I had assumed that I had been wrong about his MWL season. If that is all true, then do you have an idea why his two fastballs are apparently being thrown at similar velocities?
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His 4-seamer
had more muscle to it during the season. He is coming off of a very long first season and he is tired.
I think the velo on both of his pitches will be up this spring. I can see his 2-seamer sitting in the 90-93 range with movement and his 4-seamer sitting in the 92-95 range with less movement.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would make me very happy
Because Beavan with a 90-93 MPH 2-seamer and a strikeout pitch (95 MPH 4-seamer or slider) would bring him back into discussions of the Rangers’ best pitching prospects.
Regarding Beavan’s slider, I was under the impression that it was a plus pitch prior to the draft but it didn’t seem to play that way in the MWL. Do you have any thoughts on why?
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was erratic with it
He went through a few mechanical adjustment periods and he wasn’t able to find any consistency with the slider.
His fastball will be more effective when the slider returns to form. What’s amazing is that Beavan was able to be quite successful living off of a low 90s fastball. Just think about how good he will be when he puts all three pitches together.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks again, Jason
You are a fountain of remarkably valuable information.
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't consider 12 in 120 innings alot
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 15, 2008 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
0.9 HR/9IP in the MWL is considered to be quite high. If Beavan doesn’t get that under control, he is likely to have a rough season next year in the Cal League.
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given the 2-seamer/
4-seamer discussion you and Jason just had above I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come down, or at least not blow up in the Cal League. If he gets a handle on both pitches his K’s could go up a bit along with a tic up in velo. Let’s hope so.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Oct 15, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To Beavan's credit
His homer rate was much better after the first month or so of the 2008 season. That was what originally gave me the idea that he was working hard on the 2-seamer. I am relieved to hear that is probably true and agree with you that he might have an easier time in Bakersfield than I had thought just two hours ago. Perhaps we could see a Cahill-like breakout from Beavan next year!
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You want BB
to be a Negative Nancy all the time?
Huh?
;)
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
by Rodney on Oct 15, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only in this system
and only because I tend to value arms more than bats. Smoak would probably be a top 3 player in every system in baseball.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I don’t think you have to qualify “only in this system” because obviously it’s a tough list to compile for us. I think it’s a given that Smoak is top 3 (if not #1) in many other clubs’ systems. With us, I just don’t think he is top 3.
by FuturePants on Oct 15, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Main might be better than Feliz and Holland?
Is it the fact that he has three potentially plus pitches and thus a higher ceiling?
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Main already has two plus pitches in his arsenal and his change is thrown effectively off his fastball. He’s a fast-twitch athlete that has solid mechanics and excellent make-up. That my friend, is a top of of the rotation starter in the making.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ooh... I got some chills reading that
by JBImaknee on Oct 15, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same here
Main as potentially the best pitcher in the system (at least until Perez and Font develop a little more) is one of the more exciting revelations of the offseason.
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
and here i was thinking him ending up in frisco would be somewhat aggressive given how much of 08 he missed.
i always liked main more than beavan, but if his fall league performance is anywhere near the real deal, then the rangers got a steal of a pick
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Oct 16, 2008 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tommy Hunter
If Hunter develops a solid 88-90 MPH sinker, how much will that improve his prospect status? I realize this is a bit like arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, but I am very excited about Hunter as a sinker baller.
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 9:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hunter
I just think he is going to be one of those solid innings eaters. You know 25-30 starts at the back end of the rotation every yr.
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
An innings eater?
We could always use one of those.
by hiafex on Oct 15, 2008 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
rick helling II
:) id be happy w/ that
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arrrgh
Can someone post the new top 20 in it’s entirety in the thread here? My computer hasn’t been working right lately, and MLB.com is among several websites that I cannot seem to connect to for some reason right now.
Only thing is, I don’t know if that could be considered spoiling the article though – maybe I should just hope Jamey sees this and decides to help a brotha out.
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
by lonestarJon on Oct 15, 2008 9:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
heres the list
1- holland
2- feliz
3- smoak
4- main
5- andrus
6- teagarden
7- martin perez
8- maxram
9- engel beltre
10- beavan
11- julio borbon
12- neil ramirez
13- wilfredo boscan
14- hurley
15- kasey kiker
16- wilmer font
17- poveda
18- jose vallejo
19- tommy hunter
20- Robbie ross
not gonna post the whole article (too long)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I wanted was the list
You have my thanks, KOking.
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
by lonestarJon on Oct 15, 2008 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oo ok
thought you meant jameys comments as well – sry
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
few questions for jamey
-why the bump for holland to 1 from 2? was it somethign you saw in person and didnt like about feliz? or have heard about holland?
-what do you think about bevan? i know he had good stats, but he failed to make the top 20 for his league and his k/9 rate was waaaaaaaaaay too low for a “top prospect” – do you see that much of a difference between neil ramirez and blake beavan?
-why do you have hurley so high? based on his time with the rangers? (FWIW i think that he is on the same level of prospect as tommy hunter/poveda/kiker but behind boscan/font/ross)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Hurley should be higher.
He may not have the upside of Beltre of Beavan, but he’s a lot closer to being an average ML starter than those two, who have a lot of growing to do before there is any idea what their role could be on a ML team.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, if Maximus is very likely to be a ML impact bat, he's listed too low.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes and no
hes a hard one to rank one way or another – if you can guarantee he stays at catcher he is ranked much higher
if he is going to be a 1B/DH/3rd string catcher his value is lower
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe as a DH
But impact ML bats are pretty tough to come by and have value wherever they play.
by bushe on Oct 15, 2008 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
by tricer on Oct 15, 2008 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no no no my point is that if he puts up 30 HR/100 RBI
its MORE valuable at the catching position than the 1B position
value wise
starting c > starting 1b > splitting time between 1b/C/DH
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so?
if he puts up 30/100 he would have a whole lot of value at any position on the field particularly if complemented by his typical maxram style 380 OBP. You can take that from any position and be close to an all star.
by bushe on Oct 15, 2008 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you miss the point
victor martinez – he has a lot more value as a catcher than as a 1b
mike piazza – why did the guy not move despite being a horrible catcher? offensive value
a guy who puts up 30 hr from the catchers spot is a top 3 positional guy
a guy that puts up 30 HR from 1b is MAYBE a top 5 position guy
1b with 30 hr/100 rbi
howard
delgado
pujols
miggy cabrera
adrian gonzalez
prince fielder
teixeria
giambi was 4 RBI short
carlos pena
berkman was 1 HR short
youkilis was 1 HR short
catchers with 30 hr:
zero
mccann/soto tied for the major league lead with 23 each
catchers with 100 RBI:
zero
bengie molina had 95, mccann had 87, soto had 86, maur had 85
catchers with .380 OBP:
joe mauer
russell martin
brian mccann was at .373
1b with .380 obp:
pujols
berkman
teixeria
youkilis
pena missed by .003
conor jackson missed by .004
morneau missed by .006
a 1b who is 30/100/380 guy is good
a c who is 30/100/380 is UNREAL, especially when coupled with say smoak or davis at 30/100 at 1b
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's the thing
You are fighting yourself saying that a big bat C is better than a big bat DH, everyone agrees. The question is where does an “impact bat” rank? Everyone would prefer the impact bat to be a catcher. Why does Max get downgraded for possibly having to move to 1st while Smoak/Davis don’t since they obviously will never be a catcher? You really think that a potential top 10 first baseman (by your stats) in all of baseball who is already in AAA is the number 8 prospect we have?
I like how Tricer put it: If Smoak can duplicate Max’s AA performance next year he will be a top 10 prospect in baseball but for some reason people refuse to give Max the same amount of credit when he has done it and performed consistently at 300/400/500 for 4 years now. If you’ve seen Max play the guy is a line drive machine that seems to square everything up, but only swings when he gets his pitch. If I had to put bets on the ability to succeed in the majors Max would probably be at the top of the list for all our prospects even if you threw Davis, Murph, Salty into the pot.
by bushe on Oct 16, 2008 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
after looking back at what you said i thought you were saying he has equal value a C or a 1B when you were saying he had a ton of value no matter what – sorry about that
the problem is that he is kind of a guy without a position (bounced btwn 3b/C/1B IIRC the last few yrs btwn ATL/CLE/TEX) and those kind of guys tend to get overlooked. also, i think he gets a little undersold because he has been traded multiple times which would make many people say “well if he was so good one team would have kept him” – my viewpoint is that he is good enough that multiple teams wanted him/made him be a part of the deal
the second problem is the fact that he is at a disadvantage position wise because he is behind the best defensive catching prospect in baseball as well as a guy who did pretty good at the major league level this year (davis) and another guy who is seen as having GG-caliber defense at 1b (smoak) – while he is damn good he is also being seen as a guy who will rotate between c/1b/dh, which lessens his value unless he is still going to play a lot of games (say 130?) next year
now as for the 30 hr/100 rbi/.380 obp – those are stats i picked out (well you gave me the .380 obp) if he was guaranteed to hit that at the major league level i would say he has to be our #1/2/3 prospect.
and i have not seen him in person, but everone who has raves about him which is enough for me.
for me the issues are as follows:
-he does not have a “set position” and i dont think he will play 130 games between 1b/3b/dh
-he is on even ground as teagarden, but the problem is that this is a team that is already offensively above average and defensively well below average, and as good as teagarden is i dont know if the team is ready to go with someone like max behind the plate
-i do not have faith in the rangers to correctly use him next year, scratch that i do not have faith in ron washington to correctly use him next year (which would be to let him play a ton of games at c/1b/dh)
-he has players seen as very good prospects around/behind him at his positions – c: teagarden/salty & 1b: davis/smoak – which means that his lack of defense will probably come back to hurt him
what i would like to see happen next year:
-give him 500 ABs at the major league level. for him to do this he would probably have to get the most ABs from the DH position – i dont think the rangers will give him the majority of the PT at catcher this next year
-play teagarden the majority of the time at catcher, find someone who can roll as your second catcher, let salty play at AAA every day and let maximus be your backup catcher/1b.
-play blalock at 3b if he can at all play there – if not let him play 1b and put davis at 3b for this year OR see if davis can play OF?
the way it should play out for the rangers in say 3 years:
c- teagarden
dh/c/1b- maxram
1b- smoak
3b/lf?/dh?- davis
trade – laird/salty
if max puts up a 300/400/500 line next year in the bigs i will be the first one to say that hes a hell of a player.
and you know what, i bet he can. the guy is a hitting machine (from what i have read/heard/seen on here + stats) – now idk if i would have him above davis, but murph/salty for sure he is more liekly to succeed
anyway sorry for going on and on
and i seriously hope they give max 500 ABs next year…if only i had confidence in ron washington to not fuck it up.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but by that reasoning teagarden should be our #1 prospect because he is virtually guaranteed to be a long term starter in the majorleagues because of his defense…
i think hurley should have been slightly lower but thats because i look mostly at his horrible stats at AAA than his limited stats at the major league level
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait
are you talking about Hurley or Teagarden?
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hurley should have been lower
teagardens a value is not based on his bat
anyway teagarden is (prospect list wise) behind maxram, perez, beltre – so hes already no higher than 9 and hes on the same level as neil ram/borbon/boscan/etc
now do i like him a lot, yes – same w/ hunter. but the odds of either having monster years are next to nil. will both play in the majors? yea probably for a while.
anyway 200 AB at AAA is not equal to 26 starts (essentially a full season) – cant make that comparison
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's really not my reasoning.
My reasoning is that an impact bat that is very close to the majors is more likely to actually be an impact bat in the majors than an impact arm that is far down on the farm.
Basically, Maxram is less risky, but perhaps a slightly lower potential impact than Perez. I’m not sure that I would say he has lower potential impact than Sweet Tea or Andrus, who both carry significant risk that they will be mostly great defense with very little offense to contribute.
I try to rank guys based upon who is more likely to have at least one All Star season (an impact season), which is something like potential multiplied by likelihood to reach that potential. This might be different than the perceived value of a prospect.
The value of prospect depends upon the risk tolerance of an organization. Very few folks would run the risk of losing multiple years of a top-2 starter by trading Main, Holland, or Feliz before they hit the majors. That doesn’t mean they have a higher likelihood of being a star, although in this case I think they do.
I think from the perspective of the likelihood of an All-Star season the top-20 from Jamey’s list are grouped something like
Holland, Feliz
Smoak, Main, Maxram
Andrus, Teagarden
Perez, Beltre, Hurley
Beavan, Borbon, NeRa, Boscan, Kiker
Font, Hunter, Poveda, Vallejo, Ross
And, I struggle with whether Smoak and Main should be in the first group. Again, that may not be the order of their value as prospects.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
only change i would make
bump font and ross to the group with boscan/kiker/beavan, bump hurley down to that group as well
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The cool thing, of course, is that the top 9 if not more
have star potential in different ways, and I have a hard time remembering the last time that could be said. That fact cracks my noggin no matter how often I see a list posted.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My All-Star list
likelihood would be very different…
Smoak
Teagarden
Andrus,MaxRam
Borbon
Feliz (moves up if he closes),Holland
Main,Beltre
This team has not sent many home grown starters to the All-Star game and I’d give the edge to many of the hitters.
by groundingout on Oct 16, 2008 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hurley still K'd almost one per inning in AAA
He was butt ass horible in the bigs, but lots of 22 year old pitchers are suck in their first exposure to the show.
I think people are writing him too early. He’s got really good stuff. He can strike people out and he’s got decent enough control. His HR rate (1.81 after never having been above 1.60 before) and BABIP (339 after never having been above .260 before) were both way high last year in AAA and I have to believ those will normalize a bit, though his HR rate still leaves a lot to be desired even if it goes back to its normal levels (let’s say 1.2-1.4).
He’s got the potential to be a nice solid #3 starter in the mold of a Brett Myers.
I think people are letting the fact that he failed to live up the unfair expectation that he would become an ace taint their feelings toward him now.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you have to give him
another year or 2 to show something. I think he was also hurt by having a craptastic defense behind him, as was most of the staff.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
by DJCahill on Oct 15, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed with everything except Hurley being terrible in Arlington
Through his first four starts as a Ranger, Hurley’s ERA was 3.57. His final start, when he was apparently pitching hurt, killed his final numbers and people’s fond memories of his debut season.
The concerns about Hurley (high HR rate, less than stellar AAA numbers) are identical to Danks prior to this year. I agree that Hurley could easily develop into a very solid #3 pitcher.
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup yup yup
Hurley is WAY low on this list for my tastes. I mean he’s below 3 guys who haven’t even seen full season!? What would you put the odds that Perez ends up with more ML innings that Hurley? Lets also not forget how Hurley looked in his start against the Phils
by bushe on Oct 15, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
look at hurleys AAA stats
he had a 3.57 era in FOUR STARTS
thats small sample size people
how does his 3.57 era in 4 starts makeup for his essentially entire year of suckage at AAA?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His AAA peripherals don't point to suckage.
Like I said above. Great K-rate. Decent walks. He’s still got good pure stuff.
His terrible luck (high BABIP, high HR rate even for him) made him look so much worse than he was in AAA. Oh and he’s still pretty damn young.
Don’t be so quick to sour on young guys when they get to the high minors and the bigs. Lots of guys get there and find out the crap they could get away with in the low minors no longer flies up there and they need to make adjustments. I think Hurley can make those adjustments and still be a solid guy for us.
The “Brett Myers with less wife beating” comp I threw out above seems pretty apt, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
my point is that
i would be very happy with brett myers with less wife beating
but i think hes gonna be a rick helling guy
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he'll strikeout more than Helling and walk less, though HR's will be a problem for him just like they were for Helling.
Basically I think if Hurley can stay healthy he is a ~4.00-4.50 ERA kind of guy, whereas Helling was a ~4.50-5.00 kind of guy.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough
id be happy w/ that
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not sure
we saw the real Hurley last season. He struggled at the onset with some mechanical adjustments (surprise, surprise) and then slowly worked his way back, but his velocity still seemed lower than most of us expected. Then the injury happened. It is very difficult to get a true evaluation of a pitcher during a year like that.
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Butt ass horrible in the bigs?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You disagree?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he was butt horrible,
or even ass horrible, but butt ass horrible?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Oct 15, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I stand by my slightly redundant pejorative.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
24.2 IP
26 H
15 R
15 ER
5 HR
9 BB
13 K
I mean, I’d hate to hear what Tommy Hunter rates.
He had a rough outing against Oakland, nudging his HR total by two in just two innings. That slayed his HR rate.
He was competant in his other four starts. It wasn’t that bad. What it was is a small sample.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, it was a very small sample
and I’m certainly not suggesting we draw any conclusions from it. I’m just saying if you look at what he did in the bigs this season it was pretty freaking butt ass horrible.
And as for Tommy Hunter, well that can only be described as “deserves to be beaten to death by his childhood best friend while his parents watch”-horrible, although his sample size was even smaller and I still got mad faith in the guy going forward.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But dude...
Four out of five starts, as a wet-behind-the-ears rookie, he’s competant. He kept his team in the game…and that’s horrible?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see what you're saying.
You take out that one start and he was pretty darn good. But when you leave it in and look at his total performance from this year, yes, it’s butt ass horrible.
4.74 k/9
3.28 bb/9
1.44 k/bb
1.82 hr/9
5.93 FIP
6.45 tRA
Like I said, I’m not drawing any conclusions from it. It’s way too small a sample for that, and the kid is still young and talented. In fact I saw some encouraging signs stuff-wise from the kid watching him pitch. I’d probably characterize myself as one of his bigger supporters on this blog (see above). But, that being said… I still say he was butt ass horrible in the bigs this year.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holland/Feliz
What I keep hearing is that Holland is a more polished starter at this point in time than Feliz is. Based on that I’d personally rank Holland above Feliz right now myself – although when it comes to Neftali and Dutch, picking one over the other is like saying you like the red Corvette better than the yellow Corvette.
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
by lonestarJon on Oct 15, 2008 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha i like that comparison
personally i like feliz more but that may have to do with the fact that i have been following him since he was in the braves system lol
my top 5:
1a) feliz
1b) holland
3) main
4) smoak
5) andrus
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd agree with that top 5
Only with Dutch as my 1A of course.
You know, another thing I’ll admit that biases me toward him is the southpaw/RBiA thing. I just kinda think he stereotypes a little more as the perfect #1 starter for our ballpark.
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
by lonestarJon on Oct 15, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So do we really have
3 minor leaguers with ace potential?!?!
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think you could argue
at least that. Holland, Feliz and Main are all there. But Perez and Font could join the discussion at some point as well, and guys like Beavan and Boscon certainly have top of the rotation ceilings as well. It all goes back to how one defines “ace.”
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah and
i think that was discussed earlier this week or late last week haha. It just seems like in the past the Rangers have always had to rely on one or two guys to make it and if they didnt the system was a disappointment.
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kn.King...
1. I have gone back and forth on that in mind for months now. I chose Holland not only because he’s more polished (and more likely to reach his ceiling), but the more I saw of him, I think the ceiling itself might even be higher. The guy is savvy.
2. Ramirez vs. Beavan is interesting. Do you favor huge stuff in a limited sample? Or a large sample with a step down in stuff? I believe in Beavan a bunch — like I said today, how can you quibble with a teenager making his debut in a full-season league and winning like he did . . . while recognizing that his stuff can be even better as he matures?
3. You consider Hurley at #14 high?
by Jamey Newberg on Oct 15, 2008 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
1) thats what i thought about you ranking him above feliz – polish/less likely to flame out
2) i am interested in beavan actually, i think next yr its gonna be interesting to see if his stuff comes back and if it does…kid will shoot up prospect lists. i think he and neil ramirez will probably be back to back whenever i do my own rankings/we do community rankings – im not sure what order they will be inyet though…
3) yes – the kid hasnt had a “good” half season since the fist half of 2007 at frisco. he has an era over 5 at AAA, he has given up almost 30 HR at AAA, has a bad whip and was even worse his second time around at AAA – i think he is below poveda/kiker/ross – even with hunter – so that makes him what? 19/20ish?
but thats just me…
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holland
What has he done since the last ranking to displace Feliz? I’m not saying it’s incorrect, who knows he might be better than Feliz. But what has he done since the previous ranking that would cause that? Based on something you saw in AZ?
From all the raves of those who have seen him this year, Main is #1 or #2 (behind Smoak) for me as soon as Holland and Feliz graduate.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Oct 15, 2008 9:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
thats my question – if he saw something bad with feliz or heard something good about holland or if its the case that they flip flop daily for him and he cant make up his mind (i have that problem every time we do a top 25 lol)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Marcus Lemon?
WT-F-F-F-F-F!
"until they are good, they are not good" - seth
by Chase Irwin on Oct 15, 2008 9:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
is there a legit arguement to put lemon on there over the guys at the back of the top 20?
15- kasey kiker
16- wilmer font
17- poveda
18- jose vallejo
19- tommy hunter
20- robbie ross
i dont think so. maybe someone would argue vallejo but hes at AA this year and played pretty well, kiker did ok ina hitter friendly league, font makes scouts drool, hunter pitched at 235 levels this year/held his own at all of them but the bigs and ross was a guy who got mid first round money and who many liked as the best HS lefty arm in the draft (klaw liked him a lot IIRC) along with a guy (poveda) who has been on the radar for a long time and had more k’s than IP
lemon meanwhile is a career .281 hitter without a true position, who cant really steal a base (35 SB to 24 CS) who didnt lead his team in AVG, did lead his team in hits, had 43 errors (even whittleman only had 27!) – was he even the best middle infield prospect on his team?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This discussion
should not really be a critique of Marcus Lemon, because his not making this list is not an indictment on his part. He does have a true position, and it is 2B. He has very solid baseball acumen, is an excellent contact hitter with a great eye at the plate, and he has always been at least a year young for his level. There is little doubt in my mind that he enjoys a solid major league career in much the same vein as Mark McLemore, but hopefully with a higher BA. the problem is, we have at least two other 2B in our org who are or could be even more dynamic than him, so in our system he is a true luxury.
I am very excited to see him continue to progress next year in Frisco.
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lemon may have a true position but he hasnt even played one game at 2b outside of instructs, has he?
and your right, him not making this list has to do with how deep this team is in the minor leagues
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
with any prospect
it is a matter of floors and ceilings, and people tend to upgrade or downgrade prospects depending on their stomach for risk. In the world of speculative trading, Lemon is sort of a bond. On one hand, there is almost no doubt in my mind that he has a productive major league career. On the other, it is unlikely that he is ever on an all-star squad.
He has never played a game at 2B because the org is still trying to feel out his ceiling. I think they know he can play a solid 2B given his skill set, but obviously he presents more value to this club and others if he can play some SS as well.
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
I was planning on posting a heads-up, but you beat me to it, Sp.D. Appreciate you doing it.
Jamey
by Jamey Newberg on Oct 15, 2008 9:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great fodder
for offseason discussion.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Oct 15, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At this point
I have grown far too attached to this collection of talent. I imagine JD like the dragon in Gardner’s Grendel…sitting on his pile of gold and hoarding it.
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 9:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Q for Jamey
Beltre is a potentially unique talent who plays center field like a young Junior Griffey and is capable of doing anything offensively.
Can he post a .400 OBP?
Also, how much time does Andrus need to play ML-quality defense?
Thanks for the list, too.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 10:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Can he?
Yes.
Will he?
Let’s see how well he adapts to coaching.
I’m betting on him.
As for Andrus, I would say his defense is just about ready (every teenager needs some polish on decision-making).
by Jamey Newberg on Oct 15, 2008 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
read some places
that andrus could have played defensively in the major leagues at 18
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that griffey
ceiling comp for beltre pretty much the general consensus around baseball?
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Griffey posted a beautiful K:BB ratio as a 17-y.o. in low A.
I know this is a dead horse with the Engel, but he’d be so much more interesting with plate discipline.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
however you can argue that griffey had more polish as a 17 yo (if that exists). I just like the fact that our system doesnt depend on him being a superstar
by booyahcaveman on Oct 15, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Griffey comp
I think when people say, as I have said, that Griffey is a good comp for Beltre, that we are speaking about his raw tools and developing skills. I don’t think it should be read as a literal parallel. At least not yet…….
At this point, Griffey is Beltre’s ceiling, not his reality.
by jparks77 on Oct 15, 2008 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beltre is from the island
Walks are the last thing island kids develop because as the old saying goes “you can hit your way off the island but you can’t walk your way off” or something like that.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 15, 2008 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yah
I think of that saying every time I complain about Engel’s BB rate.
Next year looks like a more telling phase of his plate discipline evolution.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
But still if he goes to Bakersfield like I expect him to he will be extremely young for that level and as long as it doesn’t stay as low as it was this year i will consider it an improvement. He doesn’t have to raise it a ton in my eyes for me.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 15, 2008 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
andrus
after seeing him all season in frisco, he really does only need better decision making. he tends to rely very heavily on his athleticism which leads to him trying to make plays he probably shouldn’t attempt.
im anxious to see what he does next year.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
by rentz on Oct 16, 2008 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lots of discussion about Beavan...
Would it be fair to say that for most of you guys, you have Beaven so high on the list because it’s more of a question of “when” his velocity ticks up a few MPH again and not “if?”
I like his numbers, but so far he hasn’t really separated himself as a potential superstar yet. Personally, I do think his velocity will return and at that time his K/9 ratio will look a lot better.
by FuturePants on Oct 15, 2008 10:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like this list as a snapshot. Gives an idea of who's catching on and who's idle.
How close in your list is Tim Murphy to Robbie Ross?
Murphy has done some nice things in FIL from what I’ve read.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 11:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
T.Murph
Moves up my list just about every time I sit down to adjust it.
Corey Young, too.
by Jamey Newberg on Oct 15, 2008 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
can't quibble too
much with Jamey’s list. I would probably swap Beltre and Borbon.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
by RangerMad on Oct 15, 2008 11:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Another ? for Jamey
Neftali obviously has a high ceiling. What are the odds that he ends up as a #1 starter? As a premier closer?
I wonder if one of the reasons Holland is nearing or passing Feliz is because he’s more of a certainty to be a fixture in the rotation for the foreseeable future.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Oct 15, 2008 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Who knows?
A lot has to happen for Neftali to become a legit #1. He’s equipped to do it, but he has to do it, you know?
by Jamey Newberg on Oct 15, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know who had a more surprising year in my mind, Feliz or Holland.
I had pidgeon-holed Feliz as a RP with a fastballing fast-track to the majors, thanks to the enormous K/9 he put up in Spokane while pitching out of the pen. Before the season started, I wasn’t all that willing to believe he’d be able to carry his mid-90s heat into the 5th inning while also gaining control of another pitch or two.
Just goes to show ya what can happen.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since the offseason is boring....
Sickels has his first top 20 up. He started off with his hometown Royals.
A- goes to Moustaka and Hosmer.
B goes to Daniel Cortes, Kila Ka’aihue, Carlos Rosa, Daniel Duffy, Michael Montgomery and Tim Melville
With that scale in mind, what will he give the Rangers? My guess…
A- Holland, Feliz, Smoak
B+ MaxRam, Teagarden, Andrus, Main
B Hurley, Kiker, Poveda, Hunter
B- Beltre, Borbon, Beavan, Perez, Boscan, Mayberry Jr.
C+ Ramirez, Whittleman, Moreland
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 12:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Mayberry Jr?
I highly doubt he gets a B. If he does then about 20 other Ranger prospects should get Bs. Mayberry most likely won’t make our top 20 list.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 15, 2008 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mayberry had a B last year.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on Mayberry
Sickels likes him better than most other talent evaluators and Mayberry did have a good 1st half in 2008.
17 players in one system with a B- or better from Sickels might be a first. There is a chance that NeRa could make it 18.
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I waffled on NeRa, and I'm not convinced Perez will get a B-, but I'm almost certain
Boscan will. He had a negative tone to his assessment of NeRa, saying he had too many walks, during his checkup of the Rangers top-20 in August.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sickels
I like his site and his grading system, but sometimes it just seems built on feet of clay.
Everybody can read stats. There may very well be a viable temporary reason for NeRa’s walks that reveals anecdotally or from seeing his progress in person.
I’m far from giving up on that prospect. Mayberry’s another story, but NeRa’s jury is out.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mayberry
Sickels may be higher on him than most but I have a hard time seeing him crack our top 20. Just off the top of my head here are the guys I would put higher
Feliz, Holland, Smoak, Main, Andrus, Beavan, Kiker, Perez, Borbon, Beltre, Max, Teagarden, Poveda, Hunter, Hurley (is he still considered a prospect?), Boscan, NeRa, Ross, Vallejo
thats 19 right there. And I am sure there are others I am drawing blanks on right now. he may be a B but I don’t think he deserves one.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 15, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you on Mayberry
Mayberry is currently outside my Top 25. But Sickels has consistently ranked him much higher than anyone else and it would not surprise me to see Sickels give him a B-.
by spurdynasty on Oct 15, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough.
I wanted to project Sickels’ grades, so that’s why he’s there. I would have to give it some thought, but I doubt I could make an argument for him in my top 20.
Hurley is a prospect until he hits 50 IP in the majors. Harrison surpassed that.
Madrigal may be a prospect still. He has 36 IP, but also 30 appearances.
AJ Murray is still a prospect. I thought he was gonna stick in the ML roster this year, but, alas, it will have to be 2009 when he breaks through in the majors.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't AJ put on waivers?
x
1/20/09 - The end of a error.
by Parman on Oct 15, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep
minor league free agent
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 15, 2008 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if I'm him
and I’m looking at the huge wave of arms on the way I might be signing with another organization to get a better chance of more major league service time.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Oct 15, 2008 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last year's lists
Rays: 13 B- or better with 3 A
Rangers: 13 B- or better with 5 B+
Oakland 11: B- or better with 4 B+
I’m not going to look at all of the lists, but I think those would likely be the top 3 from last year.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still can't believe
they got Hosmer, Melville, and Montgomery in one draft. That is 3 top 30 guys. Montgomery, if I recall, was selected by BA as the number 1 prospect in his league this past summer, and he was considered the lesser talent of those three going into the draft.
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn't sickels
usually pretty hesitant to give anyone who hasn’t played in full season ball a grade much above C or C+, unless he was a top draft pick (like Hosmer).
Because of that, I doubt he has Main that high. Remember that Sickels has not seen Main this fall. I could also see him giving Borbon at least a B, citing that his numbers actually got better when he left the hitter friendly Cal league and moved on to AA competition.
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wondered about that with both Main and Borbon.
I figured Borbon’s walk rate would keep him as a B-. He had Main at a B last year. He may keep him there until he has a healthy season under his belt, just like he kept Duffy at a B due to concern about his durability.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 15, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought sickels gave main a B something last yr?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah above
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A's
Holland and Feliz get As I bet and I think Sickels is very high on Smoak too. Here’s how I think he puts em
A Holland, Feliz
A- Smoak
B+ MaxRam, Teagarden, Hurley
B Borbon, Hunter, Andrus, Main
B- Beavan, Boscan, Moreland, Kiker, Poveda
C+ Ramirez, Whittleman, Mayberry Jr., Perez
C Beltre (with higher potential)
by bushe on Oct 15, 2008 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A's
I very much doubt Holland gets an A, I think he’d get a B+ before an A. I also doubt Feliz gets an A and he too will likely get an A-.
A-Feliz, Holland,Smoak
B+Andrus(got this grade last year and was better this year,Teagarden,Max
BHurley,Borbon,Main
B-Beltre,Perez,Kiker,Boscan
C+Nera,Font
by groundingout on Oct 15, 2008 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sickels has got to love
Feliz’s high strikeout rates without having bad HR or BB rates.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 16, 2008 12:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure he does
and I dont remember his exact criteria but I think an A for him is a top 10 if not top 5. I don’t think Feliz is a top 10 prospect just yet….after the graduations early next year, maybe.
by groundingout on Oct 16, 2008 12:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i bet feliz gets an A
and i think he gives out something liek 15 a’s fwiw
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It looks like
Your right. I’m a bit confused by it but Sickels has a top 100 of his out, even though he will use different criteria for the book (what?) but he’s got Feliz at #7. He also has Alvarez and Wallace ahead of Smoak.
by groundingout on Oct 17, 2008 3:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Nice to think about, if Price had graduated this year Feliz would have been his #1 pitching prospect in baseball. To bushe below me, seeing how high he has Wallace makes me think Smoak might get an A-, which loses me a drink.
by groundingout on Oct 17, 2008 3:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't BA and BP have him
in the top 15. Feliz is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, we are actually talking about a guy who could be in the top 10.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Oct 16, 2008 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Slight change
I got a feeling that B+ will also include Holland and Smoak.
by groundingout on Oct 16, 2008 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
B+
If Smoak is a B+ by sickels I will owe you a drink. I don’t see it. Switch hitting, power bats rank well regardless of position. I guess he did give LaPorta a B+ last year and Wieters only got an A- so it is possible. However, I think Smoak has reduced the questions about him to 1: when?
by bushe on Oct 16, 2008 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Holland, Feliz, and Smoak may all be A+
Can you honestly give Hosmer and Smoak the same grade?
by tyd3311 on Oct 16, 2008 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea
a lot of people thought./think that hosmer will be the best bat out of that class
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yah, you're right
Handsome Hosmer has to be higher.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 16, 2008 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no A+
Longoria and Price only got A’s last year. I dont think any Rangers get an A, let alone A+, though I guess Feliz does have a shot at an A. One things for sure though, Feliz is getting six stars from KG.
by groundingout on Oct 16, 2008 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i know
But all three should be at least A-
by tyd3311 on Oct 16, 2008 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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