Contemplating Jake Peavy
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 15, 2008 12:21 PM CDT
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PrintI'm about to get on a plane to California, and zywica will be blogging tomorrow and Friday. But before I left, I figured I'd throw a discussion question out there for this afternoon...
Jake Peavy is supposedly being shopped. And Peavy is under contract for four more years, just turned 27 this year, is a really good starting pitcher, and is exactly the type of guy the Rangers should be trying to acquire.
The Rangers are also one of the few teams that have the heavy-duty prospects necessary to get a deal done.
Joe Sheehan had an interesting exchange about Jake Peavy in a chat session yesterday:
Ryguy86 (NY): What's an overwhelming package for Jake Peavy?
Joe Sheehan: A top-15 prospect, top-50, and top-75 guy, at least two of whom can be on the field by June.
Well...the Rangers can do that package, without too much of a problem. Offer the Padres a choice of Holland or Feliz, any one of the Rangers' three young catchers, and, say, San Diego's choice of one of the low-A arms (presumably, Beavan, Main, Ramirez, or Perez). Or the Padres might prefer Elvis Andrus, to replace Khalil Greene before long.
And as a sweetener, the Rangers could also offer the Padres their choice of Cruz, Mayberry or Murphy. Because realistically, I think the "overwhelming package" described by Sheehan might not be enough.
Now, Jake Peavy has a no-trade clause, and at this point probably wouldn't waive it to come to the Rangers. Of course, money talks and b.s. runs the marathon, so I think an arrangement could be reached...say, a 2 year, $50 million extension tacked onto the end of Peavy's current deal, plus turning the 2013 option into a guaranteed deal at $22 million.
So...here's the proposed deal...San Diego's choice of:
Feliz or Holland
Ramirez, Teagarden, or Saltalamacchia
Any one of the pitchers below AA, or Elvis Andrus
Cruz, Murphy or Mayberry
Plus the Rangers give Peavy a 2 year, $50 million extension to his current deal, which has $70 million over 4 years to go (assuming that 2013 option is picked up).
What do you think? Do you do it? Do the Padres?
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though i dont think
peavy would waive to come here, i like the idea up until the 50 million dollar extension.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Oct 15, 2008 12:26 PM CDT reply actions
I kinda hate the idea.
I suppose I fall into the category of not trading for an ace. Like Spurdynasty wrote, it will not pan out in the end, and the club isn’t a pitcher away from contending. Therefore, why the need to mortgage the future for right now? Yea, its Peavy and under control for awhile, but what if the pitchers are the real deal? TINSTAAPP (I know!) However, with the Rangers luck, the players that get traded are going to be the ones to explode where the players they keep will underperform or get hurt or have visa problems, etc. Next year, I could see making a move because the team will know better its personnel, and (in theory) ready to contend.
1/20/09 - The end of a error.
kinda high?
Feliz, Salty, Beaven, & Cruz is reasonable….. gotta consider Holland (closeness to MLB) and Main untouchables…..
If the deal can be worked out with out Feliz, Holland, or Main?!?!
Davis, Salty, Kiker, Cruz, Harrison???
by Baseball North on Oct 15, 2008 12:29 PM CDT reply actions
Agree - Holland May Be Better Than Peavey Right NOW...
I also think Harrison might be as good or better than Peavey in the long run. Plus, he’s a lefty and one that’ll gobble innings. Don’t just give away a lefty for no good reason.
Feliz may have the ability to be better, but, at this stage, it’s still a crapshoot.
And, I’d rather send Laird and keep Salty to back up C & 1B and DH a bit. His ability to switch hit (i.e. bat lefty) would be an ideal compliment to Teagarden.
My “overwhelming” package (if we have to jack up the payroll to bring Peavey on) is:
- Feliz or Poveda
- Laird or MaxRam
- Any one of the pitchers below AA, or Elvis Andrus
- Cruz, Murphy or Mayberry; and
- The Extension – by the time it kicks in, it’ll be more market-appropriate.
If at first you don't succeed, try the outfield! Ed
Agree – Holland May Be Better Than Peavey Right NOW…
I also think Harrison might be as good or better than Peavey in the long run. Plus, he’s a lefty and one that’ll gobble innings. Don’t just give away a lefty for no good reason.
my head just exploded.
peavy won a cy young last year
peavy is going to be 28 last year
peavy has pitched 27 starts over the last 6 seasons in a row
harrison/holland have…about what? less than halfa season in the bigs?
Feliz or Poveda
so feliz/maxram/main/cruz —> this would be laughed out of the room
also are you comparing feliz to poveda?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
sigh
you can’t be serious that Holland may be better than Peavy right now. Come on.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 15, 2008 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions
That's an overwhelming offer
All the “ifs” considered. As good as Peavy is, and will continue to be, I don’t make that offer. Just opinion, but I think between Holland and Feliz, you’ll get one pitcher equivalent to what Peavy can bring to RBIA. And I think counting on Cruz now for a couple of years and Andrus for several years to come is a better menu that extending Jake P by $50 mil.
But here’s my “before consideration” hitching post. Even if Peavy wanted to come here, and did so, who’s the other top of the rotation pitcher in 2009-2010? One ace is not sufficient in the AL, IMHO, and the mix of Millwood, Padilla, et al probably won’t make up the 72 wins by starters I think is required to win out.
If I really, really want Jake Peavy, and he’s OK to pass over his no trade to be here, I dangle Josh Hamilton and Brandon McCarthy to SD, and if the balk, I hang up.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Oct 15, 2008 12:31 PM CDT reply actions
You'd trade Josh Hamilton for jake Peavy!!!!????!!!???!!???!?!?!?!?!?!??!????
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I would too
"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states" - Barack Obama
by LSBUser on Oct 15, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
WHY?
Hamilton is better and cheaper.
I’d much rather have Volquez than Peavy.
I assume you hate the Hambone/Volquez trade then?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
There's nothing to get
It’s freaking crazy.
I’d punt three babies off a bridge and light a hobo on fire if we traded Hambone and McCarthy for Peavy.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
on babies and hobos...
can you honestly say you wouldn’t do those things anyway?
by Royal Swine on Oct 15, 2008 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don't punt the babies
Hamilton is magic in the press and limelight, but there are (and we have) center fielders who could make a contribution. No not as good as Josh, but good enough to play a contributing role for the Rangers. McCarthy has experienced the kind of damage (the supposedly insignificant cracked shoulder blade) that makes him just another tall, formerly high upside RH SP (that SD seems to admire).
Peavy, for all the detraction about his home/road splits and off and on HR tendencies, is a better pitcher than anyone the Rangers can justifiably put on the field in 2009. Yes I think Holland will force his way up, and I even think Harrison will stick and be a good midrotation guy. It isn’t even important to get Jake to extend. A #1 on an interim basis might be a good purchase, even at the high price offered.
Bottom line, it equates to winning more games without hurting the team’s future. Don’t be so emotional about Hamilton. He’s a high value asset, and that value isn’t likely to get any higher.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Oct 15, 2008 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
We have them?
Are you referring to Marlon Byrd or David Murphy? If so, then no, we do not have them.
by brettgardner on Oct 15, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Marlon Byrd
10th best CF’er in baseball last year.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions
devils advocate here
but look at it this way
danks —> mccarthy
volquez —> hamilton
would you have done danks/volquez or volquez/mccarthy for peavy before this year? hell yes.
also, if the team decides that cruz is the real deal and that you are cutting bait with mccarthy why wouldnt it make sense
it kind of boils down to this, would you rather have the best hitter in the game or the best pitcher
personally i think hamilton is worth keeping for multiple reasons, the least of which is that he keeps people coming to the park and is a damn good player
but if you think that his stats are replaceable by running some combo of cruz/bradley/someone else and you think that mccarthy is doomed to be injured a ll the time/never recover what he once was and that hamilton may slip again/body will break down why WOULDNT you do it?
hamiltons value is probably at its highest peak right now
peavys value is probably about as low as it could be right now
peavys era+ over the last 2 years: 159, 137 (he was 59% better than the “average” pitcher in 07 and 37% better in 08) – and has made 27+ starts the last 6 straight years
hamiltons ops+ over last 2 years: 131, 136
you can argue that its a hell of a trade, remember going into this year peavy was coming off a cy young award at age 26. hamilton going into this year was a guy who may or may not replicate his stats, may or may not back slide and whose body may or may not break down
mccarthy may or may not ever be anything.
peavy is a known quantity.
do i think we should do the trade? no. but dont act like its the worst trade EVER here guys…its somethign that would actually make sense on some fronts
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
You'd...
light a hobo on fire regardless as to whether or not the Rangers made this deal. You just like lighting hobos on fire, tron. It’s what you do and you do it well. There’s no shame in it. We’ve all tried it or at least thought about it. But you know, you actually go out there and you make it happen.
by ghostofErikThompson on Oct 15, 2008 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
And I really mean that.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't hate that trade
It was a good trade at the time and has worked out for both teams. I have no problem with it.
Hamilton is cheaper but for how much longer? And I don’t agree that he is better. And mainly, I want to move him while he still has value before his past comes back to bite this team in the ass
"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states" - Barack Obama
by LSBUser on Oct 15, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
his past
Do you mean his years away from a regular baseball regimen?
I can see his downtime being a fitness problem eventually, but I don’t think his addiction will re-emerge.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I hope you are right
"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states" - Barack Obama
by LSBUser on Oct 15, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't bet on it
>>>but I don’t think his addiction will re-emerge<<<
From the very little I know of addictions that statistics would say it does re-emerge.
I think this is my problem
The Rangers are more than one pitcher away from winning anything. If they could get Heath Bell in the deal to fix up their bullpen and there are other moves coming down the way as well, I may consider it.
I don’t think that it is too much to pay if you are a sure-90 win team if you don’t make the deal. But Peavy alone isn’t taking a 79 win team to the playoffs.
agreed
and this trade would get us close enough that we would trade more prospects at the deadline for rentals, and pretty soon we’d be the same old rangers again
I’d pass on sending Holland or Feliz
by thedudeabides on Oct 15, 2008 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Would he come if we did it?
Would Sabathia come here if we executed a trade for Peavy?
I think Hicks would approve the increase in payroll for these two. Maybe even make a run at Casey Blake for 3B. Then it wouldn’t hurt so much to trade Feliz to San Diego. I say keep the local kid Beavan.
How about this 2009 rotation: Sabathia, Peavy, Padilla, Harrison and McCarthy/Feldman.
How about this 2010 rotation: Sabathia, Peavy, Harrison, Holland and Main. Yummy!
Yes I would trade Millwood to anybody offering a couple of low minors players and trade Padilla at the deadline for low level prospects and call up Holland.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
IMO
I want to know if Jake Peavy can prove he can pitch in the AL. Last year he was 0-3 against AL teams. He lost to Seattle, Minn, and New York.
The seattle game he gave up 10H, 3ER, 1HR
If you look at his career against the AL, he seems to be a different type of pitcher.
I do not think i would give up 3 stud prospects for him. Just my opinion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXWLfIgc0nA
Um....what?
Versus the AL in his career
20 Starts
120 Innings
108 Hits
33 Walks
113 Strikeouts
44 ER
13 HR
3.29 ERA
1.17 WHIP
The home run total is a little high but otherwise those numbers are pretty much the same as his overall numbers.
"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states" - Barack Obama
by LSBUser on Oct 15, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
The AL's not the problem
it’s the “not playing half your games in PETCO anymore” that’s the problem.
Plus the ridiculous price tag.
Plus the injury concerns.
Plus all the young cheap sexy talent we’d have to give up.
Plus the fact that trading for Peavy would be a crazy thing to do for all the reasons I just mentioned.
Plus I’m about to have a stroke just thinking about this.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm sort of in your camp on this
I don’t want to trade either Feliz or Holland for anyone, or almost anyone. I want both of those guys to be Rangers. I don’t know who I’d trade them for right now, but it wouldn’t be Peavy.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
who WOULD it be
peavy is one of the top 10 pitchers in the game.
he is one of the few “aces” there are
if your gonna trade one of them this guy should be on the list. i mean yea, who wouldnt want to have a lincecum but thats not gonna happen
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Peavy would be
if you were trading for the Peavy of this year and the last couple of years. But I’m a little less sanguine at giving up that much potential for the expensive, aging Peavy of the next few years with that extension. I think away from Petco and the NL he’s not the same guy, though still very good.
I am ready to err well on the side of caution with Feliz, Holland, and Main. Those are the three arms I would have to have a gun to my head to trade away right now. I might be convinced to do that deal without the extension, but my Rangers homerness can’t imagine Feliz and Holland reaching the big leagues with another team.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Side of Caution?
>>>I am ready to err well on the side of caution with Feliz, Holland, and Main.<<<
Is that really the side of caution, the side with the extreme unknown? Isn’t the side of caution the known entity who has been performing at near CY levels for a couple years?
Not sure I’m on board with the trade, but the pitching prospects are not necessairlly the side of caustion.
Peavy
The extension is the part that scares me.
I would definitely offer them Feliz, Saltalamacchia, Andrus, and someone like Cruz or Mayberry for Peavy.
And if they took that deal, I would make a run at J.J. Hardy with the idea of moving Young to 3B and signing Hardy long-term before he hits free agency.
by Darrell McKown on Oct 15, 2008 12:43 PM CDT reply actions
yea if you do that deal you almost have to
have a follow up deal to shore up SS for the future
side question: can vallejo/duran play SS?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Nope
If the Rangers were close to the Halos and one player may make the difference then I say go for it but the Rangers are not that close. So it is a no from me.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
No Trades!
Can’t we just put a moratorium on trades? With JD’s scouting and drafting, this team will win the World Series sometime in the next five years as long as we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot with a trade like this. Use FA to supplement the holes in the farm and call it a day. Every time JD tries to do something like this he screws it up. (Note I support JD but I cringe at the thought of him trading for yet another pitcher to win this year while giving up a pitcher for the future).
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
signing FAs...
…if they are good FAs they will cause us to lose good draft picks…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
True but ...
I was thinking more along the lines of adding type B stop gap FAs. You only get a type A if he’s young, healthy, and productive. Oh and you have to also manage to snag him away from the other big spenders. The Rangers shouldn’t be signing FA that are going to cost them draft picks (like the mistake known as Cat).
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Oct 15, 2008 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
not this year!
yay
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Hell to the no
He’s overrated cause of Petco (4.15 tRA, which is good, but certainly not great) and the health of his arm scares the shit out of me. You bring Peavy in here and he’s a ~4.00 ERA guy, which is nice, but certainly not worth anywhere near we’re talking here. And that doesn’t even factor in the injury risk, which I think is a very real concern.
If you’re willing to pay 6/120 plus a butt load of good young players for Peavy, why not just up the dollars a little bit and get a much better pitcher in CC Sabathia and only give up a second round pick? Or go cheaper and snag Lowe, Sheets or Burnett?
Or pay less in terms of prospects and get a younger, cheaper very similar pitcher in terms of talent guy like the Grink?
Absolutely no Peavy trades. None. Nope. Not gonna happen. I protest.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
no no no no never never never no never no
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
this is something that does make more sense
If you’re willing to pay 6/120 plus a butt load of good young players for Peavy, why not just up the dollars a little bit and get a much better pitcher in CC Sabathia and only give up a second round pick? Or go cheaper and snag Lowe, Sheets or Burnett?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree
That’s about the smartest thing that’s been said in this thread.
Peavy vs. Burnett vs. Lowe
2005 = 134 vs. 115 vs. 114
2006 = 99 vs. 115 vs. 124
2007 = 154 vs. 119 vs. 118
2008 = 137 vs. 106 vs. 126
The total investment in Peavy is also going to be north of what the other two would require, I would think.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 15, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
EXACTLY!!
I totally agree! I actually think Sabathia would consider playing here when he looks at the BOATLOAD of help he is going to have on the mound in the NEAR future AND the tremendous offense he already has to work with here. And it will only be getting better.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
Peavy
This conversation is just for fun anyways, because he wouldn’t waive his clause to come here.
But no, I don’t offer the packages listed above. I am firmly in the “don’t trade for an ace” camp, especially when that ace has pitched for the single most pitcher friendly club (when considering the park and the division) in baseball throughout his career.
Here's what I think about this idea
That’s a ton of money/talent to throw at a guy that (a) hasn’t been that peripherally jaw-dropping outside of Petco over the last three seasons and (b) isn’t going to be enough by himself to turn this team into a legitimate World Series contender. Everything this team does should be geared towards moving closer to that goal.
Put another way, I’d probably rather sign Sabathia than do something like this. And I’d have serious reservations about Texas legitimately pursuing C.C. even if the word from the top wasn’t that the Rangers weren’t going to significantly expand payroll in 2009.
Very, very dangerous. Not something I’d advocate doing.
by Joey Matschulat on Oct 15, 2008 12:55 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
What a rotation!
Sabathia, Holland, Feliz, Harrison and Main by 2010! Hell, we have so much picthing talent ready by 2010, we could actually consider a six man rotation to keep everyone rested and healthy!
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
Wow
I was a “nah” before I read this post, but now I’m a “hell no”.
That is a hell of a package to offer for anyone, and right now Grienke looks sexier to me than Peavy. His arm does have some legit mileage on it, though he rarely closes out his own games when compared to a horse like Doc, CC, Webb. Plus his injury history has to be a slight red flag, not to mention I’ve read some things about his delivery that scare folks.
If Grienke is any cheaper than Peavy, that has to be the deal to make. Still, I don’t give this package for Grienke. Holland, Feliz, and Main should be off limits. That means Andrus, CD, Smoak, Hurley, BMac, or Harrison will have to go, which I am easier to accept. Probably 2 out of that group, 1 position player and 1 arm. Plus a low level guy like Kiker, Beavan, Ramirez and one of our catchers.
That is still a hell of an offer, and only worth it if you can extend Grienke, but I just don’t see the good that comes from dealing one of our 3 best arms, all of which could arrive by September 2010, for anyone right now. Not with our track record in trading arms recently.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
greinke?
over PEAVY?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I had that thought.
If Grienke could be had for less than Peavy, I’d rather go that route.
There is discussion about Hamilton for Peavy. What about Hamilton for Greinke? Anyone? Anyone?
Go Rangers!
No and No
Young, cheap, crucial… and still room for improvement. I have a really hard time believing this was Hammy’s career year.
Plus the guy likes it here and considering everything he’s been through should be open for discussion on an extension.
Hammy should be in RF for 6 yrs. But if we’d gotten to see Cruz a little more this year, then maybe you could consider Hammy…
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
Yah
Superstar’s are the rarest commodity in the game. When you have a young marketable superstar talent in the prime of his career you don’t trade him unless you’re blown away and/or you can no longer afford him.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions
young marketable superstar talent in the prime of his career
jake peavy: May 31, 1981
josh hamilton: May 21, 1981
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I know their ages.
Thank you.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
you do realize then that
peavy is as much in the “prime of his career” as hamilton then…
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes.
But what does that have to do with what I said?
You do realize that Hambone was a much better player in 2008, right?
Plus he’s much, much, much cheaper.
Plus he plays everyday, which is more valuable, imo (though this one’s debatable).
Plus Peavy has injury concerns that at least equal (and in my mind, far exceed) the concerns about Hambone’s issues.
You’d really trade Hambone for an overrated PETCO-aided super-expensive pitcher like Peavy? Man. I just don’t get it. Please explain, in detail. No ambiguous statements like “It’s the pitching, stupid!” Please seriously explain.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Not necessarily
Hammy could be improving still, he’s still getting used to the rigors of 162 game baseball.
You’ve quite possibly seen the best out of Peavy. Not saying he’s bound to decline, but he sure wouldn’t improve with a move to RBiA. And Hammy is a great fit for our park.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
o ok i thought you were saying
if all is equal you would take greinke over peavy
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
bc of asking price
If they cost the same (in prospects), I wouldn’t pay a king’s ransom for either. But, Grienke should come cheaper so that’s where I would try to add.
As for cost, I think you could get away paying Grienke a little less as well, but you need to act quickly. If he puts up another year of improvement you’ll be paying more for him than the great Jake.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
why do you think another year of improvement for greinke = more valuable than peavy?
compare stats
if both are on the open market tomorrow peavy blows greinke out of the water on how much he gets
peavy would probably get as much/more than sabathia gets this offseason
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
sabathia: career 3.66 era, 121 era+, 7.56 k/9, 2.84 bb/9, 1.24 whip, .81 hr/9, 8.36 hits/9, 1660 IP on his arm
peavy: career 3.25 era, 121 era+, 8.96 k/9, 2.90 bb/9, 1.19 whip, .91 hr/9, 7.77 hits/9, 1260IP on his arm
how in the HELL is that “>>>>>>” better?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
i want you to explain please
why sabathis is so much better
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
so that makes that big of a difference
what about how many IP are already on CCs arm and his weight?
what about the recent overuse of CC down the strech?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah his weight
could be a huge concern. Don’t know much about his actual conditioning, but the Texas heat will break him down eventually.
because he hasn't even reached his peak yet, up until this point, he just did it on talent. - Ron Washington on Josh Hamilton
Those both scare me
I’m not a fan of money-whipping anyone.
If you grow them yourself, see if you can work out an extension like Zambrano/Peavy did. Favorable to everyone.
I’m just saying, those are surprisingly similar numbers, like eerily similar… and PETCO compared to the AL is a difference.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
right but is it a huge difference is my question
and i think the answer is not really
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions
yes, that's a huge difference
park- and defense-adjusted, Peavy’s ERA in the NL is really in the 3.25 to 3.50 range. Coming to the AL, it would be the 3.75 range.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
3.25 pitcher would have had the 5th highest ERA in the AL last year (behind lee, halladay, dice-k, lester)
a 3.50 pitcher would have been around the 10th best pitcher in the AL
yes its a lot but i would like to think he would be in the 3.25 range (and remember how bad our defense was this year too) – would have won near 20 games
for what its worth i would advocate bringing in sabathia over peavy because of what it would cost the team salary wise but im just saying that its not such a huge difference between the two (and its not like peavy would not also adjust as well)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:00 AM CDT up reply actions
+ no injury concerns
+ CC was really, really good in ’08 and Peavy was only sort of okay.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
no injury concerns for sabathia?
the guy has a TON of innings on his arm
the guy weighs way too much
and if your only going to think about 08…thats pointless
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
heh
I like how you take what I say out of context. (When did I say I was only looking at ’08?)
I’ll admit I probably should have only used one “>” i my first post up there. I was wrong, you were right. I am very ugly, you are sexually attractive. I’m stinky, you have a very pleasant natural musk. I have no friends, you have to hire an assistant just to keep track of all the many people who come to your yearly birthday party.
You win.
Happy? Can we stop it with the sniping now?
Listen, I think Peavy is pretty darn good. Top 15-20 in the bigs. But I think CC is top 5. Plus Peavy’s mechanics and arm troubles scare the shit out of me. That’s what it is.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
+ CC was really, really good in ’08 and Peavy was only sort of okay
and the end is all you had to say in the first place
no need to be a tool
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess we can't stop the sniping.
I take back all those nice things I said.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
its true
there is no need to be a tool
you said why you liked CC more, end of story i thought
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
That's what she said.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Proven pitcher in the American League.
Plus, I don’t believe Arlington is REALLY any worse than pitching in Milwaukee or Cleveland. If you are a great pitcher, you can be a great pitcher here too.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
I don't bring CC to Texas for more than a sponge and a used 3B coach...
His size will really cause him to suffer in the Texas Heat. Plus, he really extended himself in the stretch run for the playoffs. If he has another great season left in his arm, it wouldn’t translate to TBiA…
If at first you don't succeed, try the outfield! Ed
I don't buy into the whole "too fat for a hot climate" theory. Sorry.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
You
don’t think that has even the slightest bit to do with Kevin Millwood’s slight underachievement since he’s signed?
because he hasn't even reached his peak yet, up until this point, he just did it on talent. - Ron Washington on Josh Hamilton
Maybe the very, very most slighest of slight bit.
But I don’t think it’s a real factor at all, no.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I didn't
mean to narrow it down strictly to weight. You can be overweight but still be athletic.
I just go based on my personal experience. I’ve played ball in texas and in oklahoma, and to me just the difference in heat and humidity is huge.
because he hasn't even reached his peak yet, up until this point, he just did it on talent. - Ron Washington on Josh Hamilton
You can be normal wieght and be unathletic, too.
Wouldn’t the heat screw with an unathletic skinny just as much as it would an unathletic fatty?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
nope
the amount of body heat that is generated from the extra body fat makes a difference.
Then you could also look into things like asthma, which fat people have a much higher percentage of suffering from than skinny people.
It’s pretty hard to prove/disprove any of this. just thought i’d throw out some experiences i’ve had.
because he hasn't even reached his peak yet, up until this point, he just did it on talent. - Ron Washington on Josh Hamilton
Tomorrow Peavy blows Grink out of the water
But after another year of improvement, even slight improvement, from Grienke I would like him more. He pitches in the AL first and foremost. Plus, he’s 3 years younger with a lot less wear on his arm and a less violent delivery.
I looked at their stats pretty extensively over the past season, and I’ve been familiar with Peavy for 5 years… so I know it looks askew.
However, I’m not paying for the last 5 years, it’s the next 5 I’m worried about.
If Grienke played for the Rangers he would be deemed so untouchable by LSB people’s heads would spin just thinking about how fast JD would lose his job if he were traded in a deal for ANYONE.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
In the abstract?
Probably Peavy, though it’s probably closer than you’d think.
But once you figure in age, health, cost in terms of young players and cost in terms of dollars… don’t you think the pendulum swings in the Grink’s favor?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I disagree with your categories
of 1.5 and under as poor, and 2.5 and over as good.
League average is about 1.5.
I’d be fairly happy with starters that were 2:1 or better. 4:1 should be labeled Exceptionally awesome.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Yah, anything over 2:1 is okay with me
anything over 3:1 makes my underwears fit tighter. 4:1 is just nuts.
88 pitchers qualified for the ERA title this year.
9 had 4:1 or better this year.
35 had 2.5:1 or better.
7 pitchers had a 1.5 or below k/bb ratio this year, so that is pretty damn bad for a full time starter.
For those who are curious:
Daniel Cabrera was the worst at 1.06
Roy Halladay was the best at 5.28
Kevin Millwood led the Rangers full time starters at 2.55
And constant source of LSB intrigue Zack Greinke threw down at 3.27
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
5.28...
that makes my head swim.
I wish Halladay would get more credit for the season he had.
by ghostofErikThompson on Oct 15, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Cy Young
would be enough credit. I had both he and Cliff Lee in 10×10 roto league this year, and Halladay was a better pitcher. Not by much, but start after start he’s more consistent.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
im intersted to see if he gets any MVP votes
not that he will win but still i am interested
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions
You know who really gets lost in the shuffle?
Dan Haren.
8.58 k/9
1.67 bb/9
5.15 k/bb
3.01 FIP
The guy took a big old huge giant leap into the land of acehood and no one seems to notice at all.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Screw him!
/The Don
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Wow
I’d never thought of that, but that’s just freaky.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
hell of a year
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Perhaps I should clarify
That graph is from FanGraphs.
by Joey Matschulat on Oct 15, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
how did you do that btw?
or wher eis it from?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Stay the course
Dont deal holland, feliz, main, or perez unless someone else overwhelms US. If im the padres I would do the deal in a second.
nnnnnoooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!
That’s giving away a huge chunk of our future for one pitcher, who is good, but not good enough to single handedly get us into the playoffs. The Padres would do that in a heartbeat unless they’re crazy.
"Never go with a hippie to a second location."
no way
Nolan and JD have already said they are not going after big contract free agent pitchers. This is way too risky. It would be nice to have Peavy, but it would also be nice if Feliz pitched as well as Peavy at a fraction of the cost. I think it makes more sense to trade one of the three catchers for a middle of the rotation guy.
examper
I think it makes more sense to trade one of the three catchers for a middle of the rotation guy.
I don’t mind this idea at all. I just keep hearing their names in package deals. What could Salty, Laird, MaxRam, or TT bring in on their own – or with a minor throw in.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Oct 15, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably a Bronson Arroyo-ish guy
and I don’t like that idea much. we have enough guys that are soon to be ready we don’t need another Millwood/Padilla expensive clone.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
so trading Catchers...
for prospects would make more sense? We just CAN’T keep 4 major league catchers, can we?
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Oct 15, 2008 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
i think we CAN
but we shouldn’t.
My opinion is we’ll see one of the guys gone in a package deal for a young and cheap arm with plenty of upside. An Arroyo would surprise me with the state of the team right now, but any of the names you’ve been hearing about (Grienke, Cain, JSanchez, Bucholz, Masterson, ASanchez, Nolasco) are the most likely.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
No
The Rangers are not contending in 2009 so don’t trade for an #1 or sign a FA. Maybe next year when the Rangers have a better idea in what they have in Harrison, Hurley, Holland. Feliz, et al.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
I'm not so high on Peavy
If he pitched in an average ballpark and put up the same kind of numbers, then I might like the idea of giving up that much for him. I don’t think he’s Adam Eaton, either. But his ERA will probably be around the mid 4s if he were to come here. And for that, you don’t trade what you’re proposing.
And to those who don’t like the idea of a $50 million/2 year extension. $25 mil/year for a pitcher like him might be like bargain in 2014. Remember that right now, the Carlos Silvas of baseball are making around $12 mill/year.
Nope
Too many cheap young players who could contribute in one way or another to the big league club. We may not have a guy turn out to have as high of a ceiling as Peavy, but the package will definitely be more valuable in the long run as a whole.
Line o' the day?
From elsewhere, in cyberland…
Those snarky guys on LS Ball would eat you alive
for posting such terrible bs.
Yay Team!
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Huh?
Interesting.
Where’s that from?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
DMN blog.
Forgive me, I perused the comments…
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Also, diff subject.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Padres perspective
They make that deal in a heartbeat. The Padres are in a dire situation. While they made the playoffs a few years ago and just missed last season, that is an indictment of their division more than anything else. Their lineup has maybe two or three guys in it that are good major league regulars (AGon, Giles, maybe Kouzmanoff). Their offense and defense is horrendous – they really need a catcher who can throw out guys. More than that, they need some exciting players – guys to get fans in the seats and make their team relevant.
The flip side is that their ballpark allows any pitcher to appear good, and any good pitcher to look almost great (see Young, Chris).
Given that, this is the deal I offer:
Andrus
MaxRam or Teagarden
Hurley
Ramirez or Beavan (or another high ceiling young power arm)
Borbon
Blalock
Texas receives:
Peavy
Heath Bell (potential closer)
They do this deal because Borbon and Andrus are guys who will make their defense up the middle solid and have speed – something that their offense needs in that ballpark. Hurley will be a solid #3 or possibly a #2 pitcher in Petco – home runs aren’t an issue there. They get the catcher they desperately need – either a much-needed bat in MaxRam or a guy who can fix their 90% SBA in Tea. Blalock is a local boy who they have wanted in the past. And you give them a young pitching stud to clinch the deal.
I don’t think the Padres would hold out for Holland or Feliz – they need hitters, not pitchers. If the Rangers could get back Peavy and either Bell or one of their middle arms, I do it.
as for where these guys play on the Pads
Greene is most likely gone by the middle of next season – he’s essentially where Blalock is in Texas – the team needs to move on. Andrus would easily fit in and replace his defense and add speed to the equation.
Its possible that if the Pads go into full rebuilding mode that they’ll move A-Gon for prospects as well, giving Blalock a place to play. The Padres don’t know from day to day who their CF or catcher is, so Borbon and “generic Texas catcher” will fit in nicely.
that is an interesting deal
very very interesting
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Not sure what they'd do with Blalock, but
I’d rather go in your direction and include more players rather than the highest upside players.
Go Rangers!
Hmmm. Very nice thought
Andrus, MaxRam or Salty, Ramires, Borbon, Blalock and a Single A pitcher for Peavy and Bell is a done deal.
That wouldn’t REALLY impact our major league future much. Vallejo could always move to short in a couple of years. You’ve got Beltre for future CF. Keep local kid Beavan over Ramirez. Expendable pitching depth lets Hurley go (we still have maybe 15 pitching prospects on the farm). Andrus is the only dent, but you have FOTF for five years with Vallejo and Lemon behind him.
I like it.
2009 rotation: Peavy, Millwood, Padilla, Harison, McCarthy/Feldman… and at least Holland up at deadline replacing Millwood or Padilla.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
That deal is sooooo sick
for both of us. I mean, really really nice stuff there. I don’t think you will find too many on either side of the coin that won’t agree to this. None of our “untouchables” in Main, Holland, Feliz, and CD. And Heath Bell makes this reasonable for us, because with Peavy alone I would be yelling all day about too much to risk for 1 guy.
I’d really try to get them to take a catcher not named Tea though, but I’m terribly biased because I’m a Longhorn and everything I’ve read about his D and his leadership since he was down here have been great.
Mad upps, well done mate.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
Two thoughts
1. Another Peavy will be available when the Rangers are ready to contend.
2. Our prospects, especially those you name, will be even more developed (ie, valuable) then.
Read the other comments for the flaws in Peavy’s game, but moreso this is a case of bad timing.
Go Strangers.
Bad Timing
I agree fully. Maybe next August we’ll have things more in place to make a move the one guy that can put you over the hump. Maybe we have to wait until after next season. But trading 4 supremely talented, cheap guys for Peavy could turn out very, very badly right now.
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
I lean towards #1
I have this feeling that, though he hasn’t announced it yet, Meno is growing increasingly convinced that the Rangers can compete next season if juuuuust the right moves are made and they all hit. Soon, he will explode and unleash a torrent of 2009 optimism [with graphs and catchy acronyms] upon all of us wait-till-2010 types.
tick tick tick
You forgot something
He will also come out with his latest version of “The Angels really aren’t that good”.
"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states" - Barack Obama
by LSBUser on Oct 15, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
They aren't
88-74 Pythagorean record.
Teixeira and K-Rod likely gone after this season.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 15, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Keep telling yourself that Adam
Eventually, it will be correct.
"Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states" - Barack Obama
by LSBUser on Oct 15, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Its only fair
people have been talking about the high priced vets dragging the Yankees down for about 5 years.
I agree with Adam, eventually the Angels are going to implode with age, and are going to underperform their pythag. Hopefully its next year.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
And Saunders
is pedestrian…except against the Rangers.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Heres what you do
Trade for Peavy, sign sabathia and Lowe (Free agent right?)
Make Padilla the 4 and Milwood the 5.
Resign Bradley and go into the season with the same offense.
Trade laird for 2 lockdown bullpen spots.
Win the world series.
Your welcome. Hell I would not even ask for 1/4th of JD’s salary to do this.
Um
So where does that $40+ million come from?
by Joey Matschulat on Oct 15, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
tom hicks wallet
lol
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, I definitely think the Rangers need to acquire
a young top-2 rotation guy.
Peavy. I like him. I feel ambivalent about this trade proposal, though I don’t know why.
Package A: Holland, Teagarden, Main, Cruz — in my mind this would be the package would have the worst consequences for the Rangers.
Package B: Feliz, Salty, Andrus, Mayberry — the least worst consequences for the Rangers.
I can do Package B, but I think I deal a lesser package for a slightly lesser pitcher, like Shields or Bonderman.
If Holland’s fastball is all that we’ve heard it is and it continues to be so next year, he’s probably able to pitch in the majors as a lefty specialist or some other member of the bullpen. See this discussion on Price. I’m not sure Feliz is there yet. Overall, package A has more power potential, which is why I am hesitant to say I like the trade in that case.
BTW, I think this is about what it would take to get a young #1.
Go Rangers!
who was the manager that liked to bring young SP up and have them pitch the pen?
i think it was earl weaver?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
lol
and it only is changed when an idiot owner calls for him to be transitioned INTO being a starter in te middle of the season
call it the “thast how you get hurt” plan
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Under no circumstances
do I give up Main in addition to Holland or Feliz.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Yah
I imagine the front office privately puts Main in the same category as Holland and Feliz.
I just remember after the draft the word was all their mocks landed them a combination of Beavan, Main and Borbon, but none got them all three. They are psyched Michael Main is panning out, and hoping for same from the other two. He’s no luck-out day two prospect.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions
absolutley no way
not only would i not trade holland or feliz but i wouldnt trade any of those low A arms except Beavan.
we would be giving up way way too much for a pretty good pitcher who will cost a lot and will start on the decline once he gets here
I like it.
I can’t imagine the Padres would do it, though. And parting with Holland or Feliz would be hard.
The Padres wouldn't?
Will they ever get a more impressive offer than that? Better yet, can any team beat that offer? I mean, the Rangers would be offering them arguably the best ss prospect in baseball (Andrus), one of the top 10-15 pitching prospects in baseball (Feliz/Holland), one of the better catching prospects in baseball (Salty/Ramirez/Teagarden), and a major league ready outfielder (Murphy/Mayberry/Cruz).
I can’t envision any team beating that offer. If they are trying to rebuild and thinking about dealing Peavy, that is the kind of deal I would imagine they would seek.
If we are talking about making a trade for a pitcher and then locking him up to a long term deal, I would be more inclined to ask about Greinke first. Additionally, if that was the asking price for Peavy, I might ask about some other possible less expensive (comparatively) options like Nolasco, Cain, Slowey, Sanchez, and others first.
With the contract extension, that deal is a little more palpable, though. Nevertheless, that is a lot of talent going to San Diego.
by Stephen Rushin on Oct 15, 2008 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions
lol
posthocergopropterhoc
"Why bring dividing politics to this blog Adam? Why? I get enough of it everywhere else. I don’t want it on the sports blogs I read." - tasan
Why would you do this trade?
The only trades the Rangers should make this offseason is one where they are clearing out room for the log jam in the OF or C position. Otherwise, it would take a deal where the Rangers are getting one hell of a steal to make any other trade IMO. Keep Holland, Feliz, Perez, Main, Beaven, etc. here. Develop your own aces. Sign them up through age 31 or 32 when they start breaking through and then let them hit FA and let the cycle continue. That’s the only right way to do things for the Rangers.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I'm with everyone else
That say it’s too early to make such a deal. The Rangers aren’t close enough to contend.
Seattle just demonstrated what happens when you trade the farm without being a playoff caliber team. Then compare that to these teams and where they were the previous year: D-Backs – playoffs, Mets – almost playoffs, Brewers – almost playoffs.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
+1
That Seattle comp is accurate, when you consider the production the Ms were expecting.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 15, 2008 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
You know OC
You can be quite inspirational. Thanks to you I now have a graphic response to every bad trade proposal this winter:
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
by LSJ on Oct 16, 2008 6:20 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
thats awesome
make it you profile picture
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:00 AM CDT up reply actions
awesome
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Send it Ranger's PR. That's the new motto for this offseason.
I pity the fool GM who asks for Feliz.
Go Rangers!
I'd be excited and forget that
I said this if it happened, but put me in the no camp.
If we can work out a package while not trading away Feliz or Holland, I’m all for it, but with 1 of those 2 I’m totally against it.
"You can't reason with your heart; it has its own laws, and thumps about things which the intellect scorns." - from A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court, by Mark Twain
I prefer deals
for younger (under team control), cheaper pitchers. Guys like Buchholz, Bailey, and the Sanchezes don’t require potential aces and we can use Catching depth as a big part of their acquisition.
So no thanks on Peavy for Dutch, TT, Main (or Andrus) and Murphy.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
You know...
It is pretty ridiculous to think that the Cy Young award winners from both the AL and NL in 2007 are available this off-season (or rumored to be available in the case of Peavy).
A team could conceivably add two recent Cy Young award winners this off-season, provided they are willing to part with the money and prospects necessary to do so.
Do I do that deal?
No, no, no, no, no, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Forget Peavy. His home/road splits sucked this year, and they’re not that great careerwise either. He’d go from superstar to league average with the RBiA as his home instead of PETCO.
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
+1
He turned me off at “Holland/Feliz”
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
by utlonghorn24 on Oct 15, 2008 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Late to the party.
So I’ll just say no thank you.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
The more I think about this
the more I think San Diego is ready to sell high. Peavy was not quite as good in about every way this year and is about to get more expensive. They need prospects, good time to sell their best trade chip. If they’re willing to deal him instead of building around him, that makes me feel they think he’s going to decline and it’s time to get while the gettin’s good. No thanks.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
or that they are willing to look at the future and see this is a way to rebuild
a la john daniels, circa mark teixeria trade
by all accounts they have a very good front office – i doubt they think hes going to suddently decline
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I didn't say
suddenly. I think he’d be good for a couple of years and then decline right as his contract is becoming onerous.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I like Peavy as much as anyone...
BUT…can we try to establish some kind of youth movement before we trade away our top prospects when we’re probably a year or two from being good anyway?
Padres Selling High
Dave Cameron has an article explaining why he thinks the Padres are selling high and Peavy’s best days are behind him.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
Eh
I don’t buy the argument that one slightly off year means that your decline is starting. It does indicate something to consider, but isn’t a “DON’T SIGN THIS GUY” alarm. Also, it was just a bad year in San Diego – I know you can’t quantify atmosphere, but I’d bet a non-trivial part of that 10% decline.
IMO, the biggest flaw to current statistical analysis of players is a heavy reliance on recent trends – both up and down. Certainly over the population of players, trends are meaningful. But there is so much noise at the individual level that one off season is not very predictive. Note how Bedard’s great 2007 was not predictive at all of his horrendous 2008, but a glance at earlier seasons was.
Agreed...
And I wouldn’t take it lightly the fact that he had some arm trouble this year considering what Tim Lincecum’s father had to say about Peavy.
what did he say?
link?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions
He basically said Peavy’s stats were trending down and that should set of alarms. He didn’t say the guy was going to suck, just that he wouldn’t be as good in the next 4 years as he was in the previous 4 years.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Oct 16, 2008 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Well actually he specifically said...
and I’m paraphrasing but if you cut off Prior’s legs he would throw just as hard…ditto for Peavy and Dice-K. He predicted injury for Prior and is basically calling out Peavy and Dice-K as well. Although with Dice-K, I have trouble seeing that considering how many pitches he’s probably thrown, you’d think the guy would have gotten hurt in 3rd grade if his mechanics were that troublesome.
by slimshadty12 on Oct 20, 2008 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
see, prior to this year...
I would jump on that. Peavy is guaranteed to at least be able to go out if fully healthy and dominate any game he starts. Our other starters in the minors we’d be giving up aren’t. But now that we’ve got such a rich pipeline, and we’d be giving away some of the best of that pipeline that are mostly major league ready, I don’t jump at that deal unless we were able to sign Sabathia, Sheets or acquire at least an Oliver Perez before making the trade. And you know what scared me off?
Johan Santana. The same pitcher I wanted us to throw the farm at when he was available. The Mets had at least as good of a team as we do now when they acquired him, and look what that’s done for them. I can’t say it’s been all his fault, as he’s pitched well, just not as well as they probably hoped. And it seems to me that this package is much more than what the Mets threw at Minnesota.
"Calmer than you are... "
FWIW
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/sports/braves/stories/2008/10/16/braves_peavy_trade.html
The Braves are trying to fill their biggest need by trading for San Diego right-hander Jake Peavy, a top-tier major-league ace with a Cy Young award and a Southern drawl to boot.
Go Strangers.
klaw
Trebor, Austin, TX: Assuming Peavy can be bought out of his no-trade – Padres choice of (Holland or Feliz) plus (Teagarden, Salty, or Max Ramirez) plus (Elvis Andrus or Main or other A-ball arm) plus (David Murphy or Nelson Cruz or Mayberry Jr.). Which GM hangs up the phone first? Which GM should hang up the phone?
Keith Law: That’s an absurd bounty for the Padres. I think it would short-circuit the very good future in Texas to give up that much talent, especially pitching – if Texas is going to win, it’s going to be through big-time pitching depth.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
Rich Hill-S- Cubs Oct. 18 – 3:27 pm et
Rich Hill surrendered two runs and four hits in 5 1/3 innings for Aragua of the VWL on Friday.
Hill, who is looking to put a disastrous 2008 behind him, struck out six and walked none in his debut in Venezuela. It’s a very encouraging start as he tries to rebuild his stock and put himself in position to claim a rotation spot next spring.
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