Marlon Byrd's Value
by clark on Oct 15, 2008 3:17 PM CDT
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PrintThere was some heated discussion around these parts last winter regarding the value of Marlon Byrd, especially when it became known that the Cubs were interested. At that point I think most of us were surprised that a 4th OF like Byrd could pique any team's interest and most agreed that his apparent sea change at the plate was more of a "wait-and-see" change.
But 2008 only seemed to confirm his transformation into a viable starting OF. Beyond the Boxscore recently posted a ranking for all CFs in 2008 and Byrd showed up 10th, behind one current Rangers CF and in front of some very eye opening names.
I think it is possible that Byrd gets taken for granted around here, although I admit he is not without his faults. His OPS was about .200 lower away from Arlington this past season and he can be a very streaky hitter, but realize that Byrd finished last season with a line of .298/.380/.462 while showing the ability to play all three OF positions. And he is cheap and controllable for a couple more years (I think).
Because of all this, I could see the Cubs rumors coming up again this winter, along with the Yankees and really any other team looking for an OF upgrade, especially an OF who has the ability to play CF. Teams that value OBP will certainly take note of the increase in walks and decrease in Ks that Byrd exhibited this year.
I agree that he is not a player this team should be actively trying to trade, but with an OF cast that already includes Hamilton, Murphy, Cruz, Boggs and possibly Borbon in the near future, Byrd is a bit of a luxury, and if he can be parlayed into something of greater value both this year and in the future, it is worth a look. So what is Byrd's market value? I'd like to throw out the name Sean Marshall as a benchmark, a solid LHP for the Cubs who I think projects as a solid middle of the rotation starter if given the chance.
Is that reasonable?
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I would certainly be interested
and if the Cubs are really focused on next year, he could be in play. But I doubt the Cubs sell this low on him, considering what he did in 2007.
Seems he had back issues
which might have led to some control problems.
I would certainly hope we inquire about him this offseason.
i would do that in a heartbeat
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions
on the other hand
that is all the more reason for the Rangers to explore the market for him. As I have said about Blalock, I would like to see if we can turn guys who could be leaving after 2009 into guys who can help in 2010 and beyond.
Age
His age prevents a feeding frenzy, but he’s got value.
Something like Jermaine Dye at a similar age, with better D…
And if a team goes after him, they’re hoping for a Dye-esque storyline during the player’s 30s.
Go Strangers.
Yah I linked to this in the Peavy thread
It’s interesting. Kind of makes you wistful for those “The Boy Blunder needs to fired immediately for not dealing Byrd for Murton! Storm the castle! STORM THE CASTLE!” threads we got inundated with last winter/early spring.
I almost suggested a Marlon Byrd for Edwin Encarnacion deal yesterday since Cincy’s known to be looking for a RH bat for their OF and have been thinking about moving Encarnacion. But then I noticed Encarnacion’s atrocious defense. Who the hell knew he was that bad at 3b? I was under the impression he was a plus defensive 3b. But, no. He’s horrible and has a track record of suck a mile long. Oh well.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
i was going to mention this...
in the “You’re the GM” thread over at Sickels’ site. There’s probably a good 3B to target who is a luxury or blocking someone with his current team, and has the ability to fill the void for us for the next couple years. But it’s not Edwin and I don’t think it’s Bill Hall.
Maybe Crede is a decent possibility.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Oct 15, 2008 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Crede can't stay healthy enough for my taste.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Yankees
I wonder what we could get for a Blalock/Byrd package from the Yankees. Perhaps a package of Kennedy/Kontos/Jackson? Not really sure what’s considered fair since the Yank’s prospects tend to be overblown.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
keep me far far away form kennedy
jackson would be interestnig though
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 15, 2008 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions
they overvalue Jackson
so i doubt we can pry him away, but i like Kontos and they have a number of bullpen arms all through their system who are intriguing. Kennedy is such a question mark at this point in his career….
not sure the Yankees would want Blalock at all
3B is set for ten years and they already have a glut of 1B/LF/RF/1B types
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
but Byrd would be a good target for them as he's a good fielder and they desperately need fielding
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
anyone interested in
byrd for melky cabrera ++
i mean yes, you woudl be buying low and hoping he gets better but the kid was untouchable last yr – not saying i woudl do it (i wouldnt) but anyone think anything about it?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions
lol yes
but OPS+ of 95 and 89 at ages 22/23 arent too bad
would you do edwar ramirez/melky for byrd?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I would do Edwar for Gerald.
He played in a lineup where he was the guy that pitchers had to go after, im sure he was seeing lots of favorable pitches to hit.
just edwar or edwar/melky for gerald?
i think the yankees would be a team that makes a lot of sense for OMFT
he has shown he can play well when only playing in a platoon situation (with popup) or when playing a lesser amt of the time
he is good on defense
he wouldnt cost too much to get (ie, the yankees dont have to trade a top prospect to get a good catcher only to find out posada can catch) and if posada cant catch laird can start
hes a vet (and is pretty develloped vs salty and co)
i think the yankees would be a good trade partner for laird – say edwar and a minor league guy/arm? edwar and carera?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
BLOCKBUSTER ALERT!
In thinking about this deal, I would try to do the following:
BORBON, Salty, Harrison, Neil Ramirez, Blalock and Arias
for
Phil Hughes, LHP Chase Wright (from Wichita Falls), RHP Edwar Ramirez and CF Austin Jackson (from Denton)
You give the Yankees their starting CF, 1B, C (of now or future), #5 starter, future starter and possibly a starting 2B. This deal would allow the Yankees to trade Cano and sign Sabathia (possibly Lowe too) and leave Tex to someone else.
We get a possible #1 starter, MLB ready lefty, MLB ready relief pitcher and a 21 yo center fielder who is local that could take over for Marlon Byrd after 2009.
The last two years have seen Austin Jackson as basically a consistent 290 hitter in AA, 500ab, 82 r, 150h, 32dbl, 6trip, 11hr, 64rbi, 52bb, 111k, 26sb, 360obp, 450slug and 800ops.
I’m sure the Yanks would want more, but that’s not a bad deal for either team.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
Or with the Cubs...
I wouldn’t mind trying to pry Marshall AND Hill from the Cubs.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
Why does it matter where guys are from?
I only ask because you made a point to emphasize where a couple of those guys are from
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Doesn't REALLY matter.
It is just nice when local guys can help bring the local team a championship.
And I wonder if it DOES help players be more comfortable if they can play close to home.
In my opinion, if you knew that Davis and Smoak would produce exactly the same stats over their careers, I would keep Davis over Smoak.
Not a big deal. Just a personal preference.
I actually think with Jackson it wouldn’t matter, but with Wright it may push him over the top.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
Yanks
I am assuming they don’t pick up Giambi’s option and put Posada back at catcher for at least the next year.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Oct 15, 2008 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions
good chance Posada can't catch
and Tex should be a no-brainer
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
nate mclouth is HORRIBLE on defense
-16??? wow
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
where do you go...
for defensive stats? what sites do you guys use?
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Oct 15, 2008 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions
That;s in the Beyong the Boxscore article posted above
Personally, I use Baseball Prospectus and Hardball Times for most of my overall fielding stats, but that is mainly because I don’t have access to John Dewan’s system.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
i like Justin's combined zone ratings, linked to in the BtB article
it’s Hardball Times RZR averaged with STATS version of the same thing (HT uses BIS as their stats provider) and then converted to runs. in my mind, the only other viable options are Dewan’s +/- (pay site), MGL’s UZR (not available for 2007-2008), and Dave Pinto’s PMR (not yet posted for 2008).
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
+/- is supposed to be the best from what all ive read
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions
he was -10 runs after like two months
so he wasn’t horrible the rest of the way and is probably more in the -5 to -10 run range going forward. although, he’s probably a corner outfielder going forward in Pittsburgh.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
i think thats what someone on BPs chat called him - one of the guys they were chatting w/
an average corner OF
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions
worst in the bigs?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions
damn
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 17, 2008 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Byrd hold down CF until Borbon?
What about holding onto Byrd until Borbon is ready? If you get rid of Byrd and Borbon is a flop, you are back to 2006 regarding CF depth.
i understand your rational
but again, I just keep going back to the idea of using 2009 to see what we have in preparation for 2010, and if that means using guys like Hamilton and Murphy there until Borbon arrives (around the ASB, I would think) then I am okay with that, especially if Byrd is able to bring in a guy who could be integral to our success in 2010 and beyond.
Im fine with that
Gauge his trade value this offseason and don’t turn down any good deals but also don’t trade him just for the sake of trading him. Borbon should be ready to start 2010 I think most people agree on that. If Byrd has a good season then he will have tremendous value at the trade deadline. A OF who can play all 3 OF positions and hits well. If we are out of contention then just about any team in would be able to use him. At that time you can either bring up Borbon a month ahead of time or go for a month with a platoon of Murphy/Hammy/Boggs in CF until September when Borbon should be up.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
From MLBTR.com on Blalock.
A scout sang the praises of Hank Blalock’s second-half hitting (.281/.324/.532 after the break). Blalock may be on the trading block.
very good for blalock,
picking up his cheapie cheapie option should be a no brainer. If a team doesn’t want to pay a descent price for him then oh well, at least we have a one year stop gap at DH.
Does anyone think we drop Cat if nobody wants him? I mean he is taking up a roster spot and really doesn’t fit in anywhere on this team. Not as a veteran player, utility, 1st baseman, left fielder, situational hitter…….NOTHING!
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Cat
He’s got value as a stopgap DH in a similar way to Hank, because Cat stays comparatively healthy. Considering he’s cheaper and will draw less interest than Blalock, I say shop Blalock and use Cat. Really competing in 2009 isn’t very likely.
Interesting tidbit on Nellie Cruz,
“. He led the team in RBI after his call-up and ranked 2nd in home runs, extra-base hits, average, and slugging”
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
Vernon Wells
Remember when we all thought we should trade for him? Yikes. I am surprised that Byrd’s offense kept up so well this year, though I still wouldn’t really count on him for it going forward. He has value, though, with his defense and at least adequate offense.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I say we trade him for Matt Murton this off season
just for old times sake.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Byrd for Murton
Sure, as long as they throw in Cahill. Heh.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Just what we need around here.
More Cahill.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 15, 2008 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions
wells
has a mike young-esque contract
signed extension 12/06
$25.5M signing bonus (paid in 3 $8.5M installments, March 1 2008-10)
08:$0.5M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
full no-trade clause
Wells may opt out of contract after 2011
award bonuses: $0.25M for MVP, $0.2M for World Series MVP, $0.15M for LCS MVP, $0.1M for receiving most All-Star votes in league
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 16, 2008 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions
To all who wanted to trade Byrd for Murton:
Suck on Marlon Byrd ballz.
by coolaid on Oct 16, 2008 8:47 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
He's been good
I would have sold at a much lower level and not gotten as much as he might potentially get this offseason.
That being said, as others have said, he’s unlikely to be a long term solution here.
R
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