John Manuel discusses the Rangers

Brett Gardner!

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http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=23018

Vince (CA): can you forsee any fringe or sub-par teams making the jump to contention next year?

SportsNation Keith Law: Arizona and Cleveland are the most likely sub-.500 teams to contend. I suppose Texas could arrive early, but I really doubt that 2009 is the year.

he seems really high on Nolan’s impact. And the way he put it, I am totally on board with Nolan now. That gave me the warm fuzzies…really!

Good questions, and great, long, thoughtful answers. Rec it. Wow, Perez more upside than Holland?

He’s shown flashes of a plus changeup, hammer breaking ball, velocity up to 94 miles an hour.

From Jason Parks five days ago:

His fastball has excellent life and sources say he can already run it up to 94 mph. His curveball, perhaps his best pitch, is a serious hammer. […] His change-up shows promise and will end up giving Perez an arsenal of three above-average pitches to choose from.

Coincidence? Probably. But I got a giggle out of it.

Good stuff from Manuel.

is incredible.

He also makes the point that the pitching is coming in waves…

Hurley, Harrison, and Hunter are already here.

Holland and Feliz knocking on the door in 2009.

Main, Beaven, Ramirez (I’m probably leaving a couple out) in 2010 or earlier.

Perez, Boscan, Ross (I know I’m leaving out about 20 guys now) in 2011 or earlier.

They won’t all make it due to flameouts or injury, but the sheer number of high quality arms at all the different levels really is amazing.

I also know my post is nothing new, but I just had to say it anyway.

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809293571342&c_id=tex

more paragraph breaks would have been nice…

Good stuff though.

Would it be fair to say that he has the best access in the business? I figure he must have access to basically any scouting information out there. That, coupled with his experience make his voice carry a lot of weight in my estimation. His comments about the ceilings of some of the young arma and the positives that Nolan Ryan is bringing to the organization are a breath of fresh air.

http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/10/prospect-previews-rh-starters-1115.html

I think the key is for Texas is they do have talent in the field. I think everyone knows that the Rangers can hit. That hasn’t changed over the years. They’ve always been able to hit. To me the key will be if the Rangers can develop some homegrown pitching. And that’s where the Rays really are the model. Scott Kazmir, James Shields – those guys are homegrown pitchers. I know Kazmir was a Mets draft pick, but he came over to the Rays at a very young age. Andy Sonnanstine’s homegrown. So key parts of the Rays’ rotation are homegrown pitchers and that’s, I think really, the thing in history that the Rangers really haven’t had. And that’s why we’re optimistic about Texas. They do have Neftali Feliz, they do have Derek Holland. Obviously they got Feliz from the Braves in the Teixeira trade. They got a Matt Harrison. They do have this young pitching and they have it at the upper levels of the farm system, a guy like an Eric Hurley who’s homegrown, and lower in the farm system with a Blake Beavan, with a Neil Ramirez, a Martin Perez, a Carlos Pimentel. So they have depth of arms and they have impact arms.

And that’s where I think the Rangers can parallel the Rays. If they’re going to have the same kind of jump like Tampa had, a worst to first kind of deal, it’s going to be because of the progress they make on the mound. And I think that to make that kind of leap, starting pitching almost has to come from within. Because it’s just very difficult to get impact pitching from outside the organization. To do that, you usually have to make a really winning trade. A Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez – that’s a trade that worked for both. I think Texas is happy with that trade, but I think the Reds are, too. The Rangers have shown they can develop some pitching. They haven’t held onto those pitchers that they’ve developed. The Edinson Volquezes, the Chris Youngs, a guy that they had in the organization who’s had success elsewhere. So I think the Rangers have to develop it from within and then properly identify it and hold on to it.

this is a great point imo. (bolded for impact from me)
i think if the pitching can take a step forward and the defense can be middle of the road

regarding the defense i think it will take a HUGE step forward when/if they add borbon/andrus up the middle, kinsler continues to progress on defense, move FOTF to 3b and have cruz/hamilton in the corners. add teagarden to that mix and it has the potential to be a pretty damn solid defense. thats what, 2 guys who are GG caliber on defense (andrus/teagarden) + another guy that i understand is above average (borbon) + where ever davis/smoak ends up (isnt smoak considered to play GG caliber defense?).

im not so good with the stats but how many runs would the rangers have given up if they had been even a “league average” defense? i think i read on here somewhere that someone thought it would have been a .3 to .5 lower team ERA had that happened?

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texasrangers.com: What triggered the Rangers farm system’s ascension to its current high rating?
JM: I think really the biggest key for the Rangers as an organization was picking a direction.

They made the Teixeira trade and they got a king’s ransom from the Braves. You know, that might be a Herschel Walker kind of trade to bring into the metroplex market… the Rangers have been able to bring in talent from all sources. And they finally, I think, made the decision I think when they traded Teixeira that "We can’t win with this group. It’s just not working… That trade signified the direction they were going to go in. They committed to that direction and everyone in the organization is on that same page. And I don’t think that can be underscored enough or accentuated enough.

more national recognition that that was THE turning point.

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Justin Smoak was rated by most people as one of, if not the top, hitter in this draft. You could have made the case that he was the best hitter in this draft. I wouldn’t have argued that necessarily, but he’s on the short list, top five. He hit eleven home runs to lead the Cape Cod League a couple years ago. That was three more than Matt Wieters who was our minor league player of the year. He’s now in the Orioles organization. And Matt Wieters and Justin Smoak are easy to compare. They’re both switch hitters. They’re actually former high school teammates in Charleston, South Carolina. Both went to three years of college. Wieters is a catcher. I’d rather have Wieters, but Wieters got six million dollars to sign out of Georgia Tech in 2007. Smoak’s a very similar hitter, very comparable hitter, and the Rangers signed him for 3.5 million dollars. A pretty good bargain I think, when you put it in the context of the market. So that 3.5 million dollar investment on the front end, in a couple of years, Justin Smoak, it’s conceivable he could be a solid, average, if not better, big league first baseman in two years. And you’re paying him the Major League minimum and you’re looking at that 3.5 million dollar investment

There are a couple things about Justin Smoak. First off, at number eleven, he was by far the best player on the board. In the baseball draft, you can’t draft for position, you just have to, if the best player on the board is there, and especially in that case he was by far the best player on the board, you just got to take him. He was a top five talent and to get him at eleven, I think, was a coup.

remind me who thought that picking smoak was dumb?

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If Matt Harrison develops into a mid-rotation starter or the Jeff Francis clone, you know, Jeff Francis 2007 clone that people think he can be, then you’re able to lock up Matt Harrison long term because you have the money and the payroll flexibility because you have lower salaried younger players elsewhere on the roster.

thjis i LIKE to hear. jeff francis was pretty solid in 2007:
4.22 era, 215 IP, 1.37 whip, 114 era+, 63 bb/165k, 25 HR given up, 34 starts

thats 15 wins with our team.

i havent heard the francis comp before but the more i think about it the more i like it…

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I think three years ago if the Rangers had had this catching surplus, they would have had twenty-eight teams beating down their door looking for young catching. Instead, it might just be ten to fifteen. There are more catchers. Talent in the minor leagues overall is down, but most organizations actually have a catcher or two that they like. So that’s the only downside. But there are organizations that don’t.

i think this could be the most interesting part of the offseason for me. to see HOW the situation resolves itself…i hope they give maxram 500 AB at the major league level. i doubt they will (i doubt ron washington, not daniels/the front office)

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But Perez, this is a guy who’s got top of the rotation stuff and potential. He could be a guy who in future years is a guy you’re looking to as maybe a future Jon Lester, your homegrown, lefthanded, front of the rotation starter. He might even have a higher upside, I think he does have higher upside, than a Derek Holland. He’s (Holland) at Double-A, closer to helping at the big league level, but future upside, I think Perez is ahead of Holland just for his variety of stuff, clean mechanics, and ability to be a front of the rotation starter.

clearly he REALLY likes perez. also i like the lester comp a lot.

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A full season of Chris Davis. That will be exciting to watch. I’ve been in the media long enough I don’t pay for anything any more. I don’t like paying for baseball games. It just feels wrong. But I would pay to go watch Chris Davis. I’d like to get there early and watch that guy take BP.

beast.

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yes i know this was wayyyyyyyyy too long (sry)

sweet logo

ever read any tony hillerman books?

Yikes!

Kevin Towers (San Diego, CA): What kind of package can make me look great for trading Peavy?

Will Carroll: Something better than the package for Santana, but less than for Colon. I’d call Texas and try to get four really good prospects. Not really Texas, though it works — I’d just look at the rankings of Top Farm Systems and call down the list. The Padres seem committed to sucking next year, so I wouldn’t worry about the major league return so much if I’m Towers.

Zoinks!

bahays (Work – bosses GONE): For next year – Cliff Lee or Edinson Volquez?

Will Carroll: Lee … good lord, the choice is a Cy Young winner or a future TJ patient?

Yay?

lemppi (Ankeny, IA): With the pitching on the way in Tampa, do you think they could look to move Kazmir? He had his arm issue in the spring and he had his issues making it thru 6 IPs. Still he could probably fetch a good bat to play in RF and perhaps a bullpen arm. The Rays were rumored to have shopped him lightly last off-season already…

Will Carroll: Yeah, I think they could. I dont think you get nearly as much for Sonnanstine or Jackson and you need at least one slot for Price. My question is whether you could get more by dealing some prospects. Such is the trade economy now. Kazmir would really fit well in Texas, but I can’t put together a good deal there.

I think for a Kazmir type pitcher I would go as far as to throw a name like Hammy out there. But I’m probably the minority on that deal.

on Meet the Press today.

http://mvn.com/baseballtimeinarlington/2008/10/prospect-interview-series-migu.html