Rosenthal on Peavy
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 3:49 PM CDT
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PrintKen Rosenthal has a new piece up that focuses on the potential market for Jake Peavy, and includes the Rangers in about a dozen teams that could be in the mix:
The Padres surely are intrigued by the Rangers' farm system, but moving from pitcher-friendly Petco Park to hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark would not be Peavy's idea of fun.
Rosenthal says the Astros don't have a chance because they have nothing to trade, and quotes a g.m. as saying that the BoSox could possibly do something with an Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson package, which the Rangers could conceivably top by offering Borbon/Andrus/Feliz (or Holland).
The problem with Boston, of course, along with Texas (and the Yanks and Mets and some other teams) is that Peavy has a no trade clause and is supposedly not that interested in playing in the A.L. Atlanta, I think, would be the favorite to land Peavy, since he's already said he'd waive his no-trade clause to go there, and the Braves have some tasty pieces they could dangle to make a real strong package.
But this is a place where I think the Nolan Ryan factor could come in to play. If the Rangers had a strong offer on the table, such that the Padres were willing to let the Rangers have contact with Peavy to discuss waiving the no-trade, don't you think that having Ryan pitch Peavy on coming to Texas might have some influence? Yeah, it is a bitch to pitch here, but you've got the big offense, some good young talent coming up, and Nolan Ryan personally asking you to come play here?
And I've seen some comments, both here and on the DMN blog, suggesting that we should forget about Peavy, that he'd just be Chan Ho Redux, but I think that's crap (and I'll address why sometime this coming week).
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Nolan may be the reason why Peavy wouldn't come here
would you waive your no-trade clause after reading about the team president demanding the players throw more innings?
Pretty please?
Let me give you two hypotheticals…
Do you think we’d better off heading into ’09 with “a” or “b”:
a:
P, Jake Peavy @ 6yrs @ 20mil per season (as you suggested)
and
Keeping our second round draft pick in the ’09 draft.
b:
P, Derek Lowe 3 yrs @ 17-18mil per season
and
P, Neftali Feliz
SS, Elvis Andrus
CF, Julio Borbon
I seriously don’t understand how you can advocate this team dealing so many good young assets (and is that even enough for the Padres, btw?) for a very expensive veteran pitcher at this point.
I agree that it’s crazy to think he’s Chan Ho part duex, but do you really think it’s in the best long term interest of this ball club to trade what it’d take to get Peavy here and then give an extension he’d almost certainly demand to sweeten the deal so he’d actually accept the deal?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
So Dirk
Are you advocating that the Rangers sign Lowe? I personally think that would be a very good signing myself.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
re:
I like Lowe and certainly wouldn’t mind us signing him, but mainly what I’m advocating is patience and smart allocation of our resources.
To specifically answer your question: I’d love to see us offer Lowe a high dollar three year deal to see if we could bring him in here. But my guess is someone will go four or even five year on him and we’d be SOL. I’d try to pounce quick, though, and see if you couldn’t get something done while the big dogs are fighting over Peavy and Sabathia and the others.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
4 or 5 years for a 37 year old?
I doubt teams offer that
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Lowe is 35
with a career +122 ERA not bad IMO
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
So hes gonna be 36 next year
And you want to commit to him through the age of 40?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
A 3 year deal wouldn't be bad
If that is what it took to get him here.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
Indeed.
He’d pitcher the first few months of the third year as a 37 year old, which isn’t terribly old for a sinkerballer with a clean mechanics and a really track record of healthatude.
It’d make me happy if we got him on a 3 year deal.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Not me.
Like I said, I wouldn’t want to go beyond three years.
But I think one of the big market teams is gonna miss out on the Sabathia/Peavy derby and get desperate and go at least 4 and maybe 5 years for the guy.
When you look at how many big market teams have money coming free this off season the market starts to just look scary as hell.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions
He's been consistently good, but, okay. Replace that with any of the other FA's then.
Sheets, Burnett, Sabathia, etc.
Or even a lesser trade target.
Don’t you think we’d be better off?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Not really
Peavy is what we are hoping, if everything goes right, Feliz or Holland might turn into.
He’s a legit #1 starter. He’s what the Rangers have been missing for years. And he’s only 27.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions
So is Sabathia, though.
For the record I’m fine living in a world of great offense/solid defense/merely good pitching (which is what I think we’re heading toward in ’10 if we stay the course with our youngsters) even if it means not having a true Peavyesque “ace”.
If you really, really want a true #1, let me ask you this:
How would you feel if the Rangers got CC for something like 6/150?
And, slightly OT, what do you expect CC to get on the open market? 6/150 actually feels a little low to me. Your market predictions are usually pretty solid.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions
6/150 would be fine with me
Don’t know what he’ll get. More than that, though, probably.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
hmm
Peavy is what we are hoping, if everything goes right, Feliz or Holland might turn into.
Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah McCarthy, is what we are hoping, if everything goes right, Danks might turn into. No more trades for older pitchers!
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Oct 20, 2008 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't worry.
If we keep them, Feliz or Holland will turn into busts. However, if we trade them, be assured they will be in the Cy Young race.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Lowe
What’s your problem with him?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 19, 2008 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions
i endorse this message
i’d much prefer the rangers stay the course with developing the young talent.
i’d rather roll the dice on 2 possible top end pitchers than trading for 1 legit #1 who has pitched in an extreme pitchers park
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
If it means
Parting with Holland or Feliz then I have to say no.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
What if it means...
…parting with, say, Matt Harrison?
Or Michael Main?
Or Martin Perez?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Do you really think
That they would take Harrison, Main or Perez over Holland or Feliz?
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
If you threw in a catcher, then they'd probably have to think about it, imo.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions
If you sub in a catcher...
…for Borbon, you might be able to sub in another pitcher for Holland or Feliz.
Salty, Andrus, Harrison for Peavy?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Yah, okay.
I think at that point you pretty much have to do it.
But isn’t that pipe dream central?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know
Is that package worse than the Lowrie/Ellsbury/Masterson package Rosenthal discusses?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess not.
Do you think the Padres could accept that package, though?
It sounds like not nearly enough to me. I was expecting a somewhere in the ballpark of the Teixeira/Haren/Bedard deals, only maybe a bit more.
I’ll concede the point though. If Rosenthal is right about the type of package it’d take to get Peavy, we’d be stupid not to jump in head first. You’re right about that.
I just think it’s gonna take more than that.
But I’ve been wrong before. (Cough, Corey Patterson and Jason Botts and many others, Cough, Cough)
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Salty/Andrus/Harrison
That was the Teixeira deal, for all intents and purposes. Feliz and Jones were something of throw-ins at the time, and Atlanta was also getting Mahay. You could consider Feliz and Jones as being compensation for Mahay, if you like.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Do you think
That Atlanta didn’t know or have any idea of what they had in Feliz? If that is true big props to our scouts.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
Feliz
No one (other than Kevin Goldstein) was all that high on him before this season. He was considered the 4th best prospect in that deal at the time.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions
People were high on him.
He’s the guy I wanted in that deal, so I’m pretty sure other people knew about him at that point, too.
And wasn’t he ranked 5th by BA in a very, very loaded system (ours) a few months after the deal?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm inclined to value the upside
but he was far and away more critical to me than Harrison.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 19, 2008 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions
i don't know about that
he may have been much further away than Harrison or Salty – but I think many knew how high his ceiling was.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Oct 19, 2008 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions
His ceiling was awesome
but at the time, he had a good fastball with some control problems and only in rookie ball at 19 years old. The potential was there, but he was very raw and far away. His likely ceiling at the time I believe was just as a good relief pitcher, maybe a good closer.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
His likely ceiling at the time was about as high as a 19 year old in rookie ball can get.
Think Martin Perez.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions
According to at least one source in the Rangers org,
Andrus, Schafer and Feliz were the players at the top of our wish list in that trade. Harrison wasn’t a main target and Jones was a very unexpected surprise.
this was my understanding
the hold up was on if harrison was “healthy” hence jones
andrus/schafer/feliz
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 7:51 AM CDT up reply actions
That is true
Jones was insurance for Harrison. Harrison was put on the table by the Braves. The Rangers originally wanted to target Andrus, Schafer and Feliz.
Feliz was a player the Rangers wanted, like Andrus, when they were originally signed by the Braves.
i remember hearing that about andrus
but not feliz before
and about beltre from the redsox too
hmmm good scouting?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
If you hadn't heard about Feliz
you weren’t listening to the right people. I brought him up gleefully as the trade options were being discussed, and while Bill Ballew was quite remissed in his Braves rankings (as usual), BA did feature Feliz highly in league rankings.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 20, 2008 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Sure they did
but they also knew what they had in Tommy Hanson and chose to keep that.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 19, 2008 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Feliz was very definitely NOT a throw in.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions
feliz wasnt a throw in at all
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 7:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes, No, Maybe, Maybe Hurley
I’m with dirk on this one. I’d like to see someone like Lowe in here. Sit on our assets and be very willing to flip some next off season. Besides, I’m counting on most of their stocks to rise.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Have you changed your original idea?
Because when you first brought this up it was Feliz or Holland.
"Colt mccoy sucks, mack brown needs to be fired." - Longhorn
by LSBUser on Oct 19, 2008 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm asking him...
…if it is no if it meant parting with Holland or Feliz, if he’d do it if it meant parting with one of those guys I listed.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
I do
Salty, Harrison, Borbon, Andrus for Peavy in a second.
but nothing with Feliz or Dutch.
"You can't reason with your heart; it has its own laws, and thumps about things which the intellect scorns." - from A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court, by Mark Twain
however
I would rather sign Ben Sheets for 3 or 4 than do this trade.
"God doesn’t step in and give us immunity from bad things. Otherwise, there would be no reason to cultivate faith." -TedFord
There is no way
I give Sheets 3 or 4 years with him being injury prone. I would offer him 2 years with a IP clause in it.
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
I like his injuries
he always bounces back from them, plus it gives others a shot.
"God doesn’t step in and give us immunity from bad things. Otherwise, there would be no reason to cultivate faith." -TedFord
duh
the more oft-injured a pitcher is, the more you get to plug in your other guys! how else are we gonna start 16 guys next year?
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Oct 19, 2008 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Easy explanation for his post
"Colt mccoy sucks, mack brown needs to be fired." - Longhorn
by LSBUser on Oct 19, 2008 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions
OMG
I had never seen that.
I don’t know what to say to shit like that.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions
OMG
y’alls reactions are making me laugh so much…!!
this is exactly what I was going for.
"God doesn’t step in and give us immunity from bad things. Otherwise, there would be no reason to cultivate faith." -TedFord
by dstar442005 on Oct 19, 2008 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not equipped to say
What it would take. But I do think Jake Peavy is probably this organization’s best chance to get and keep an ace. If CC saw a light in the sky that said “become a Ranger and thrive”, that’s different and I’d be delighted. Otherwise, Jake I’d take.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Oct 19, 2008 5:36 PM CDT reply actions
I really do not understand why this is generating any discussion.
His agent has come out and said he’d need a “lot of convincing” to join any AL team. If that’s the case, I think he’d need like 5 blowjobs a day from Jessica Alba to come here.
You're out of your mind
If its Jessica Alba, it would be like 2.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Are we talking old indescribably hot Jessica Alba?
Or the new baby-ruined version that’s only sort of incredibly hot?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Well the good news is
that neither Holland nor Feliz was a first rounder, so we’re allowed to trade them.
did you finish
the “Charting the Organization” series?
I remember the LHP being the last one I saw, did you ever do the righties?
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
Don’t recall if I did the last one. It was in the can at least.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 19, 2008 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Greinke
I still like the idea of trading for him better. I like Peavy, but I just don’t feel right about trading a ton of talent for pitcher who’s k/9 and bb/9 rates both declined this season. Also, I can’t see the Padres accepting a package that doesn’t include Feliz or Holland.
I doubt the Royals except a deal without Feliz or Holland either.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
evan grant
suggested that Salty and Andrus could headline a package for the Grink.
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
Yeah, but I think Drayton would be unwise to go for that.
He needs 2 powerbats, and he might be able to gamble on Aviles at SS.
Go Rangers!
I don't know that I'd trade Chris Davis straight up for the Grink.
And I’m on the record as loving me some Grink.
But I think Davis is a truly special young player.
I’d have to think long and hard on that shit.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 19, 2008 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Davis - Holland - Feliz:
These are the three names that headline Kansas City’s wishlist.
Which two do you want to hold on to?
Por que?
Why can’t we sign a FA and hold onto our core?
A Hambone/Borbon/Cruz OF combined with a FFace/Andrus/Kinsler/Davis/Smoak IF/DH and one of our stud catchers is just a beastly lineup offensively and (this next part is important) defensively in ’10.
If we roll out that lineup with a rotation featuring the best combo of Millwood, FA, McCarthy, Hurley, Harrison, Hunter, Holland, Feliz, Nippert, Gabbard, Kiker, Poveda, Whoever at that point, isn’t that pretty damn ridiculous?
We’ve got waves of talent coming up, let’s not dilute it unless we get a deal we feel we absolutely HAVE to make.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
i really think thats the ultimate deal there for rebuilding
OF: hamilton (trade), borbon (draft), cruz (trade)
IF: FOFT (trade), andrus (trade), kinsler (draft), davis (draft), smoak (draft)
catcher: maxram (trade), teagarden (draft), salty (trade), laird (draft?)
pitching: millwood (FA), mccarthy (trade), hurley (draft), harrison (trade), hunter (draft), holland (draft), feliz (trade), hunter (draft), nippert (trade), gabbard (trade), kiker (draft), poveda (sign)
thats a LOT of “home grown” talent (guys who spent a yr+ in rangers minor league system) – only free agents signed would be millwood which is INSANE
plus the other guys in minor leagues
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Laird was part of the Pena/Ramos deal, btw.
But, yah.
Our ’10 team has the potential to be ferocious in all three aspects of the game. I want to hold onto to as much of that potential as we can.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Pitcher signings NEVER – N-E-V-E-R work, just ask Mike.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 20, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
It does seem to me
that the list of $10+ million a year FA starters is more bad than good. I’d love to see a list of all the FA signings getting that much or more for a 3+ year contract for this century, but I’m not sure where to pull the FA signing info from.
It just seems there are more Zito’s, Parks, Hampton’s, Pavano’s, Brown’s etc. than there are big time successes.
Some of the best signings, like Colon, also fizzled out towards the end of his contract. Clemens was a good signing. However, its much easier to come up with a list of bad FA pitching contracts than good ones.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
I doubt if anyone would dispute that
I think that there would need to be a strict way of evaluating it to get a meaningful result, since FA pitchers are sort of destined to not be worth it, considering that they are in such great demand that whoever gets most of them has paid the very most that anyone can fathom that guy getting. And it’s not like 95% are complete failures, as some have made it appear. But there is little question that it is a perilous route, at least to whatever degree you’ve risked your finacial situation, or that there are more disappointments than successes.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 20, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Obviously, the 2 places we need improvement is pitching and defense
So why the hell would we give up Feliz or Holland let alone Feliz or Holland AND Andrus (i thought you hated MY and his range??). If they make this trade, it just may be the stupidest one made by my JD, and his stupidest right now is pretttty hard to top.
If the 2 places we need improvement is pitching and defense...
…then we would give up Feliz or Holland to get Peavy because we believe Peavy is a better pitcher.
If Feliz or Holland ever are close to as good as Peavy, we should be doing backflips.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd rather trade for Peavy
than Greinke, seeing as how Peavy would be around for years and Greinke will be around just till 2010. I still don’t understand the idea of trading for Greinke unless an extension has been made part of the deal. Either way I’d rather they stand pat and not trade for either though.
by groundingout on Oct 19, 2008 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions
worse ERA than the year before
and when he leaves his pitchers park, especially if he goes to texas he will be much much worse
Okay
He had a worse ERA in 2008 than 2007. That means he’s on the decline? Particularly since he’s just 27?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 19, 2008 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I swear to god.
You of all people should know better than to argue with steal home.
he will slightly decline if he goes somewhere else?
but if he comes here, he will completely suck?
stick to the plan, dont be impatient, and grow your own?
dont rush and trade a gold glove SS, a young ace, and a .300 centfielder?
theres so many things wrong with your statements
1) peavy had a CY YOUNG year in 2007. that kind of means that hes unlikely to repeat his numbers…especially when hes on a gawd-aweful team
2) its a lot to say that your trading a “gold glove ss, young ace and a .300 centerfielder” when they have a combined total of zero AB or IP at the major league level
3) STFU steal home. actually leave like you have promised like 3 or 4 times.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions
there are so many things wrong with your statements
1-he did decline though
2-Adrian Gonzalez, Armando Galarraga, Chris Young, and John Danks also all had done nothing in the big leagues when they got traded
3-1 time
JD can not trade prospects or pitchers. We have already seen what happens when he trades prospcects or pitchers. San diego trade, white sox trade, etc.
Peavy
if the cost was like AJM mentioned earlier in this thread, “Salty, Andrus,Harrison” Then it’s a no brainer. But the Padres will hangup right away. While that might be a good offer coming from the Tigers, like has been said many a time, the depth in the Rangers system is going to be held against him here and we’ll have to include Holland or Feliz to get it done. I don’t think it’s worth it. Plus I know it’s Peavy, but you still have to be wary of an NL pitcher coming to the AL.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. 35-23 to ULM? Come on. Well, at least we were competitive for once. Baby steps.
salty/andrus/harrison/borbon would be an interesting offer from both sides (even throw in hurley?)
that said no way we get anyone i dont think w/o trading davis/feliz/harrison
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 7:55 AM CDT up reply actions
NO TRADE
No good pitchers want to come to Arlington. The ballpark is not fair to pitchers why would they want to come here? All pitchers want at least an evan chance when it comes to ballparks, ours offers none.
no good pitchers want to come to arlington because…
…we are the least storied franchise in baseball
…we are the oldest team never to win a pennant
…we are the only(?) team to never win a playoff series.
free agents typically want money, followed by a chance to win a ring. the rangers have never even been past the ALDS
now that may change in the future…but for the time being i seriously doubt it does
the issue is that if we offer the same money/years as say the dodgers/angels/yankees/redsox/whoever why would you pick texas over those teams?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think any player really cares we've never been out of ALDS.
Who cares if the Mainers won a playoff series in the 90’s and we didn’t?
You think players are really so dumb that they’d look at the quagmire’s in Seattle, KC, Pittsburg and Baltimore and choose those them over us because of storied-ness? I doubt it.
In terms of judging a franchise I’d assume that it’s all about who has the best chance to win going forward, during the time that the FA is here. That’s all they’ll care about. I imagine they could care less about what some team did in the 80’s or 90’s.
But let’s not kid ourselves. It’s all about the money. All this other shit is beside the point.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
kc, pittsbur,g baltumore, seattle
so were above THOSE guys?
you missed my point. if your offered the same amount of money by the texas rangers or the boston red sox and are from, say the west coast, who are you going to sign with?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Thats not a fair comp
Teams like Detroit and Chicago (AL) and Cleveland would be more on par with the Rangers. And if we offered as much as any of those three I think players would sign with us.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Here's a Hypothetical
Say we money whip CC and he signs with us. Do you think Peavy would then consider us since we’d have a solid 1-2?
I still think it doesn’t change anything just because of his reluctance to play in the AL.
Heh.
Yah, that’d be nice. But you’re looking at ~50mm per season for those two guys, plus ~20 for Padzilla and Millwood. That’s ~70mm for the front four of your rotation. Add Franchise Face and the bullpen and you’re already at about 100mm and you still have to find a way to pay the rest of your offense.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions
trading for a Peavy/Greinke type
accelerates the timetable for contention and would need to be coupled with a move like the JJ Hardy trade that Adam proposed a while back. Add a solid SS and a top of the rotation pitcher and maybe this thing can climb into contention next year, but either of the moves in isolation really isn’t doing enough to fix the problems IMO.
I think you have to make at least a couple of moves involving farm parts for now contributors with the focus on 09-10, or hold onto all the farm parts and build for a future contender in 2011 and beyond. To go halfway on either plan makes no sense to me.
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
Improving defense
of, instead of giving up top level talent for Hardy, you could improve the defense in other ways.
You could add Crede to play 3rd on a one-year contract, trade for Crisp to play CF (moving Hamilton over to RF) and give the starting catcher job to Teagarden. Those moves allow you to improve the defense at 3B, C, CF, and RF. They also don’t handicap the team long-term, or block any young talent long term, as Borbon can eventually take over in CF in 2010 and Andrus can take over at short in 2010, moving Young to 3B.
If you improve the defense with those types of moves and add a Peavy/Greinke/Nolasco type pitcher, I think you can reasonably expect 85 wins or so, which would at minimum give us a decent shot at accelerating our timetable for contention.
by Stephen Rushin on Oct 20, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think Crede does much to improve the IF defense
as long as MY is at SS and Kinsler is having his lapses, the defense as a whole is not going to be efficient.
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
Well
I would argue that improving the defense at multiple positions (CF, RF, 3B, C) will at least improve the Rangers ability to prevent runs. Adding a top-notch defensive CF is a pretty good start. Hamilton was passable in CF, but Crisp might be the best in the league. Hamilton would be a well above-average RF.
Teagarden is a marginal improvement over Laird. Crede is a significant improvement at 3B.
I agree that Young will still be an impediment improving our infield defense. Nonetheless, I think it is pretty well settled that he will be the starting SS in 2009, whether we like it or not. But, I think there are ways to improve the defense without making Young switch positions.
by Stephen Rushin on Oct 20, 2008 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
crisp is again something i would be interseted in and i woudl think would not cost too much if your already doing a deal with boston…
then again their of is what, jd drew, ellsbury, bay, crisp? i mean they have guys like moss (got hurt maybe?) and co at upper miniors too i think
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
i really like the idea of trading for crisp
quite a bit actually. ESPECIALLY if we trade byrd
an OF of cruz/crisp/hamilton + teagarden helps defense a LOT
hell if you go with FOTF at ss and say metcalf at 3b it helps quite a bit
is crede better on defense than metcalf?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Where would Hamilton play in that alignment?
I don’t think he or Cruz would be a good fit in LF.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
We'd have to give up a lot of our
trade chips for Peavy/Hardy, and we would be shooting a big chunk of our wad to win now. Personally, I’d rather try the Tampa Bay plan and not be real active in the trade numbers.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
sure
but if you are going to make one of those moves, I think you have to make both of them. Adding an elite SP, or adding a premium defensive SS – either of those moves in isolation don’t do enough to address the problems. So I’m basically saying that we need to pick our window and devote nearly all resources towards that end – either make enough moves to contend, or sit tight and continue hording young talent.
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
I agree with that,
and I don’t think our window has opened.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Would you look into adding a veteran starter through FA, Cay-Hizzle?
Or are you in total bunker down and wait for the help to arrive mode?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Nah, I wouldn't mind a FA
depending on the price. Other than MY’s horrific contract, we are in pretty good shape there. I think if we start winning, you could see payroll jacked to $90-$100 million, based on MLB contracts and the uptick in revenue that winning would bring.
My only issue with FA pitching is that I think Zito’s 7/$126 might be the price of poker. For that price, I probably fold even for CC.
However, I’m definitely not a big fan of trading for a pitcher. Peavy scares me a little. While he may not be a CHP, there is a chance he is a Zito in RBiA.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
im not so sure about that
iwouldnt mind trading for hardy – worst case is you flip him later or he gives andrus another year + of time in the minors
now adding an elite SP is something you cant do on your own but i think you could afford to add an elite defensive SS and bump FOTF to 3b
heh as long as that “elite defensive” ss isnt adam evertt you should be ok
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
An interesting link on the current Callis chat:
Nate (Madison): Do you think the Brewers should look to move JJ Hardy to 3rd base and move Escobar up to play SS?
Jim Callis: Yes, or look at moving Hardy to second base and Weeks to the outfield.
What does this say about Hardy’s level of defense? Is Callis full of it? Or is Escobar the one we should be after?
The party line
is that Escobar is a big upgrade defensively over Hardy, and that Hardy is average at best. I don’t know that the party line is correct, but Escobar is probably pretty flashy.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 20, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
escobar
i thought was the “best defensive SS” in the minors
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
That’s a little more sweeping and subjective than what I’ve heard, but yeah, that’s pretty much what it sounds like scouts are saying. The distinction that I was hoping to make but really didn’t is that scouts are a lot more convinced that Hardy should move to another position to accomodate Escobar than certain metrics are, such as Dewan’s plus/minus. According to that, I guess it’s possible that Escobar would perform better, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense to move the best performing SS in the majors to 2B or 3B. So you either trade Hardy or look a lot harder about which one to slide over.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 20, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think Peavy would be a 'Ho redux
But I don’t think he’d be worth what we’d have to give up for him. Looking at his splits, I think going from PETCO to the RBiA – not to mention NL to AL – would seriously expose him and make him look like a much more average pitcher than the one PETCO makes him appear to be. He wouldn’t be second coming of Chan Ho, but he might be the second coming of Vinny Padilla (numbers-wise I mean) – and I don’t think trading an arm an a leg to San Diego for more Padilla numbers would be worth it.
"M’s fans are such weenies." - Zywica
C'Mon now.
Padilla is not a good pitcher. Below average in every way. Even during his down season Peavy was still well above LAIE status.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
padilla is really an average ML pitcher
career 100 era+
top 10 comparable pitchers:
Kris Benson (966)
Mike Bielecki (961)
Mark Clark (960)
Joel Pineiro (959)
Carl Pavano (958)
Joey Hamilton (957)
Jake Westbrook (957)
Oil Can Boyd (955)
Jason Marquis (954)
Len Barker (952)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
is a REALLY average ML pitcher
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 20, 2008 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
The Peavy Bandwagon
I’m signing up to ride shotgun on Adam’s Peavy bandwago. And when you guys are hopping on in a few months, you’ve got to get in the back.
I am even willing to trade one of Davis, Holland, or Feliz for him. Plus a bunch of other guys. I personally believe a package of quantity as opposed to high quality could get it done; but if it takes a Davis or Holland, I do it.
Obviously Petco helped him, but he’s quite simply a dominant pitcher. I’ve watched him a lot living in San Diego, and he’s the real deal. Something I have never seen in a Rangers uniform. Jake Peavy is a true #1 – far more so than anyone who has donned a Rangers uniform in the past 15 years, maybe even since Jenkins.
I believe (though obviously don’t know for certain) that he’s a better health risk than Sheets or even Sabathia. Never mind the fact that Sabathia WILL NEVER SIGN IN TEXAS and it’d be a huge longshot to sign Sheets.
As good as Feliz and Holland look, the odds they will turn into Peavy are still very low. And Peavy is not Bedard (one great season and a few good ones) or McCarthy (one good season and good minor league numbers). He’s a Cy Young winner and someone who has dominated since he arrived in the big leagues.
Now, if you make a move for Peavy, you then have to go for it. Try to get Heath Bell in the deal. Make another trade for a Greinke or sign Lowe.
People are ignoring the health risk with Peavy.
I’ve heard his name mentioned quite often when people are talking about dangerous mechanics, which sacres me.
Even in this article AJM linked to you get two references about how risky everyone seems to think his health is:
“This is different than the Haren situation for multiple reasons,” one general manager said, referring to right-hander Dan Haren, whom the A’s traded to the Diamondbacks last offseason. “First off, the contracts are far different. Second, Peavy is a greater health risk.”
The other concern with Peavy, as the GM noted, is health. Though Peavy produced three straight 200-inning seasons from 2005 to ’07, he missed nearly a month last season with a strained right elbow, and rival scouts describe his delivery as “taxing.”
I know, I know… Every pitcher is a health risk. But I’m not selling the farm and laying out a huge dollar long term contract for a guy I don’t have even a moderate amount of trust in. Probably he’ll keep on chugging and prove me wrong as hell, but what if we trade four good young players and give him a 6yr/120mm deal and then his shoulder breaks down in the next year or two like so many speculate it will? We’d be f’d in the a. There’s no way a franchise like ours can withstand having 20mm sitting in the trainer’s room. This move just doesn’t make sense for us right now.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 20, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't you see, Adam?
You’re killing independent thedirkatron!
by ghostofErikThompson on Oct 20, 2008 10:34 PM CDT reply actions
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