Given that it’s likely to be a couple of years before guys like Feliz and Holland really have an impact, I think someone like Peavy is a good way to bridge that gap as long as the price is right. It all depends on the price.

I saw something from his agent today that seemed to take some of the certainty out of not pitching in the AL. It’s probably all negotiating stance anyway. If the Rangers swing a deal for him they might be able to sweeten his deal and get him to sign off on it.

Peavy is not McCarthy, Young, or Danks. But it all depends on the price.

his stats were worse this year than last year!
he went on the DL this year – doesnt that mean he is about to break down?

or my personal fav

holland is already better than he is

< / sarcasm >

As I just said about 2 minutes ago in the last thread before I saw this put up.

He’s been in on everyone over the past few years. Santana last year, Zito and Matuszaka before that, Greinke at the deadline. The contract situation for Peavy is far better than it was for Santana. I would be as happy to see Peavy as a Rangers as Santana.

The odds seem really low, considering his unwillingness to play in the AL. I don’t think Nolan can talk him into it.

but i’ll pass on that short striding scap loader. thanks.

on a scale of 1 to 10 what would you say the chances that Peavy to the Rangers realistically happens? 10 being very high and 1 being very low.

It’s an irrelevant sample size (two starts, 9.2 innings), but I get a kick out of the fact that Peavy is a lifetime 0-2, 12.10 pitcher in the playoffs. Doesn’t really matter, but hey, it’s there.

Agree with the overriding point that Texas should definitely investigate Peavy and perhaps make a fair offer, but I see plenty of reason to tread warily, because it would still require a tremendous commitment in terms of cash and prospects.

And, realistically, I just don’t see a deal happening given the obstacles on both sides.

that the Rangers go after him…

I just don’t thin he’d waive his no-trade to come here. We’d have to kick in a hell of an extension that might make it a little less palatable.

I am convinced that the Padres will demand too high a price. Having said that, it doesn’t hurt to ask. If the Padres will accept a Matt Garza type deal AND Nolan convinces Peavy to waive his no trade clause, then I could get behind that. I just find that scenario very unlikely. The Padres don’t HAVE to trade him this year. They can wait till mid season or next year to see if someone gets desperate and the price improves.

But I don’t think you can just reject out of hand the possibility of going after a Jake Peavy, given that the Padres are willing to move him.

Is that what this series of posts is about… just to tell us that the Rangers are interested?

I would imagine they’re interested in pretty much any young, top-of-the-rotation talent at this point.

I can expect to see a series of posts campaigning for Zack Greinke next, right?

By Chris O’Leary – from May of ’08, updated a coupla days ago – tick tick tick

I think it’s likely he remains a Padre.

But this is the type of deal that the Rangers absolutely have to explore. One of the good things about quality minor league depth is that you can use it to acquire quality established players. There’s little question that the Rangers now have in their system what it takes to get just about any pitcher that makes his way onto the trade market, and they could acquire such a guy without totally bankrupting the farm. If there’s not an ace in the system right now, one is within reach. For the first time I’m actually optimistic we’ll soon see a Rangers pitcher high up on the statistical leader boards. Two if they’re really, really lucky.

But as for Peavy himself, I’ve never really been sold on him.

hasn’t he had some arm problems the past couple of years?

didn’t someone in SD at the time of the trade say that when he’s on his game Eaton is better than Peavy? Woops.

would he waive his no-trade to play in a stadium that turned an ERA champ – a guy who somehow managed a sub-3 ERA in the AL no less – into goo? This might be Mike Hampton-to-COL redux.

Petco is the ultimate pitchers’ park. Then in the NL West (unbalanced schedule), Dodger Stadium is also a pitchers’ park, and so is AT&T Park. Colorado is more neutral than it used to be.

Here is his game log from this season.

Looking at it… is the new Busch Stadium hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly? He pitched there once and gave up four home runs in seven innings, almost a quarter his total for 173.2 innings all year. He gave up two at Minute Maid park his one appearance there. He gave up one HR in Yankee Stadium (in 4 IP). Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is supposed to be a hitter’s park, but he gave up 0 HR in 6 IP.

The rumor is the Padres are trying to throw Greene’s contract in with the Peavy deal in a Beckett/Lowellesqe package. This clearly makes the two teams (Rangers and Padres) not very good fits to deal with each other, if this is in fact the case. Peavy of course could be dealt without including Greene; but it does seem like this is a priority for the Padres. Could we possibly see Greene come over here as well and see the position tango happen?

Greene to Short, Young to 3rd. Or Greene to second and Kinsler to Left? I don’t really think Greene is a very good player but I wonder if this has legs.

I don’t see it happening. It seems that there are plenty of other teams who need Peavy worse than the Rangers which will drive up the price. Could the Rangers get him (no-trade clause aside)? Sure. Should they? Not if the deal costs Holland or Feliz plus a top 50 and 75 player.

Here’s my vague problem. The Rangers are one season removed from being the Padres. The basic difference was three good trades and two good drafts. The Rangers just need to keep developing their own prospects right now.

I’d very much prefer the Rangers signing some type-A FA since their draft pick is protected. Don’t know who but they might as well cash that in now.

Nate Silver came to my law school to give a talk about polling.

Before it started I asked him two things:

Feliz or Holland: Feliz

Do you give up either for Peavy: no

He will be breaking down with an albatross contract when this team is really ready to contend

pass, stick with plan, develop players. This is a trade you should make for a comparable player 2-3 years from now when it might mean a title

Derek Lowe’s N.L. ranking in FIP:

2004 – Was in the AL (4.26)
2005 – 27th (Still only 4.16)
2006 – 7th
2007 – 13th
2008 – 3rd

Not bad, eh?

I don’t know how to look up xFIP, but let’s do a quick tRA (which is better than FIP) look at Peavy, Lowe and the Grink.

- – 2005 – 2006 – 2007 – 2008
Peavy: – 3.20 – 3.92 – 3.09 – 4.15

Lowe: – 4.12 – 4.13 – 4.29 – 3.51

Grink*: – 5.22 – n/a – 5.03 – 3.97

Peavy’s 27, Lowe is 35 and Greinke turn 25 tomorrow.

-* He went crazy during the ‘05 season, his ’06 was insanity-reduced to the tune of only 6 ip’s, and he was a swing man in ’07 as he built his arm strength up, only starting 14 of his 52 appearances.

Phil (NJ): Any thoughts on the Peavy derby? Is Towers selling high? What team(s) would be a good for him?

Steven Goldman: He’s not selling quite as high as if Peavy hadn’t been hurt this year, but high enough. The ideal destination would be right where he is, or the Dodgers, or someone else with a nice, friendly park. I’m not saying that Peavy won’t be a good pitcher for any team that acquires him, but his career ERA in road games is 3.80, and it was 4.28 this year (1.74) at home. In the wrong park, he could really fail to deliver on very high expectations.

And that would be RBiA. Once again, no thanks!

Major League sources told MLB.com that Peavy is strongly believed to be drawing the most interest from the Dodgers and the Braves, and that a deal could be completed in the very near future, possibly in the next week.

Almost no one in Gaslamp thinks Peavy is going to Rangers:

Why would Peavy want to come to Texas?