Defining Starter Roles

Defining what the oft-bandied terms "ace" and "third starter" and "back of the rotation caliber" and such nonsense should actually mean. At least one functioning definition.

From Royals' Review by way of Beyond the Boxscore.

over 3 years ago philkid3 13 comments 0 recs |

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I find it interesting

that the gap from #1 to #5 is smaller when using FIP and xFIP than ERA.

Doesn’t surprise me that Greinke measures as an ace.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Oct 21, 2008 6:42 PM CDT reply actions

well, ERA is a combination of pitching talent, ballpark, fielding, and luck/statistical anomalies

FIP removes everything but pitching and ballpark while xFIP removes most of ballpark. that will reduce the variance between pitching lines.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 8:20 PM CDT up reply actions

let’s say you have a 100-win team. are they more like to be a 95-win team (in true talent) who got lucky or a 105-win team who got unlucky? obviously the first one, which is why we regress performance.

with pitchers, is a starter with a 3.00 ERA more likely to be a 3.50 ERA guy who got lucky or a 2.50 guy who got unlucky? obviously the first, again. so when you go from ERA to xFIP, you’re squeezing the actual ERAs back towards true-talent.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 21, 2008 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Reducing variance

I didn’t think of it that way even though I was well aware of what FIP and xFIP were.

I like this because it’s a nice update of a similar think over at BTB a couple of offseasons ago where they tried to figure out what people should really expect from, say, a #4 starter. I think many have somewhat unrealistic expectations of #3-#5 on any given rotation and don’t realize that if your 5th starter puts up an ERA of 5.00, he’s above average for his job.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Oct 21, 2008 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions

That is something that definitely gets overlooked a lot

When you are talking about a number 4 or number 5 starter, all you really can hope from them is that they can go at least 5 innings and not give up more than 5 runs. There are a few rotations in the league that can expect more than that, but most rotations go through the same thing.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Oct 23, 2008 6:50 AM CDT up reply actions

no, you should most definitely expect more than 4 or 5 runs over 5 innings from every starter in the majors

a 5.00 ERA is more like 3 runs over 5 innings, or maybe 4 over 6.1 or 6.2

sure, those 5 in 5 outings will occur (probably mixed with some solid 2 or 3 runs in 6 innings starts, but they aren’t helpful.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 24, 2008 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions

a big part of being a legit "back of the rotation" starter

is the ability to take the ball 30+ times and approach 200 innings.

What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."

Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus

by tricer on Oct 26, 2008 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions

Ok, that's unrealistic

How many teams had 5th starters start 30 games last year? I’m too lazy to look it up but I’m going to say zero. And I bet there are very few teams that had a #4 starter get anywhere close to 30.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Oct 28, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions

Great Link

Wonder how the Rangers starters stack up.

This is the Texas Rangers, professional destroyers of hope, we're talking about. - BAC

by nikpin on Oct 21, 2008 10:16 PM CDT reply actions

Using xFIP

Only two pitchers qualified. The first is Kevin Milwood, who, by xFIP, is actually a high-end #2. This reinforces the belief that we were too hard on Milwood and not hard enough on the defense.

The other pitcher who qualifies is Padilla, and he was a solid #3.

Among pitchers who started at least five games. . .

Ace
None

#2
Kevin Millwood

#3
Vicente Padilla
Sidney Ponson

#4
Matt Harrison
Kason Gabbard
Luis Mendoza
Dustin Nippert

#5
Scott Feldman
Jason Jennings
Brandon McCarthy
Eric Hurley

Those who spent a lot of time as relievers (Mendoza in particular I think) had an easier time keeping their FIP low, I think. Still, that’s a heartening list. The fact that Harrison was almost good enough to be a three as a rookie is a good sign. What’s bad is that we can’t keep the pitchers healthy enough to have a rotations of #2s-#4s. And the defense just refuses to help them out.

by philkid3 on Oct 23, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions