13 days to election
as of 10-22
real clear has obama up 7% on average
projected electoral votes...
rcp- obama 364 mccain 174
538 - obama 344 mccain 194
pollster - obama 286 mccain 157 tossup 95
electoral-vote - obama 364 mccain 171 tie 3
karl rove - obama 313 mccain 171 tossup 54
//////////////
"battle ground polls"
FL obama +1.5
NC obama +2
OH obama +2.5
MO obama +2.7
NV obama +3.3
IN mccain +3.8
MT mccain +5.6
WV mccain +6.5
GA mccain +6.8
NM obama +8.4
NH obama +9.4
MN obama +9.6
WI obama +11
PA obama +11.4
IA obama +11.8
MI obama +11.8
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Comments
TX is a battleground state.
McCain is only up by 20% :)
"Obama is a Christian - He's always been a Christian...But.........what if he is[a Muslim]? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer is no, that's not America." Colin Powell on Obama/Muslim assertions.
i live in oklahoma
and mccain is up something like 62% to 32%
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
I'm proud to be in the 32.
Although I have no discernable ties to OK anymore, I don’t even think any of my relatives live there, because it’s the last place I lived in the US before I moved, that’s where my absentee vote went.
I doubt they polled OK expatriates
Maybe there are hundreds of thousands of moderates and liberasl that Oklahoma scared off the continent, who’ll all vote for Obama?
South Carolina ain't much closer.
It’s funny cause three of our four local TV stations are based out of Greenville (SC), but the 4th (ABC, maybe?) is based out of nearby Asheville, which is in North Carolina and you can always tell if you’re watching the one that originates in NC cause there’s Obama/McCain stuff on there non-stop, whereas the SC-originating stations have no presidential shit cause this state is republican as hell.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 22, 2008 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah
michigan mccain gave up on. mccain gave up on new mexico too and is thinking about colorado. but i went ahead and listed them.
some polls released today have mccain catching up on colorado (maybe he won’t give up there?) NC, FL and ohio.
i think mccain should give up on pennsylvania and put his resources back in colorado, florida and ohio. one last push in iowa wouldn’t be a bad idea. i think his campaigning in new hampshire is pretty wise too. but give up pennsylvania already.
hopefully obama continues to air ads in Indiana but DOES NOT visit there. i don’t think it’s really worth it, unless he’s nearby in missouri or something.
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
oh
and i only list PA because mccain insists on spending $$$ there. who knows, it may work, but as i state above it’s probably foolish when he could spend elsewhere.
http://www.buchanan4pres2008.org/
NIXON: NOW MORE THAN EVER
PA
I live in PA, and all the news coming out says it’s over in this state by a fairly wide margin. So people aren’t even listening to McCain anymore here.
Iran
Apparently Iran is considering a strike vs Israel I don’t believe this at all. Very convenient for this to come up now with questions about Obama foreign policy and that other countries will “test” him. Meanwhile this went pretty much unreported in the media.
"Obama is a Christian - He's always been a Christian...But.........what if he is[a Muslim]? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer is no, that's not America." Colin Powell on Obama/Muslim assertions.
Interesting second link
I seem to remember hearing something along those lines a while back – but maybe I just imagined it. But of course it won’t get any play, as it isn’t consistent with Bush being a complete psycho war monger. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure Bush would have filled up Israels planes himself if he could, but he’s at least a little bit rational.
If it wasn't for
the financial crisis, McCain would have a ~7pt lead. IMHO
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
But would he have had to tap Palin
if he wasn’t already in desperation mode?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 23, 2008 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
He tapped her before the crisis
Not literally, of course…
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 23, 2008 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Possibly literally
After all, she admitted they’d only met once, there wasn’t much talking, and it’s not like McCain’s adverse to infidelity :)
I wouldn't say no
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
I doubt it
but if he wasn’t following the disastrous Bush presidency he probably stomps Obama.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
+1 on that
heads up with no past/bush i dont see how obama could compare to mccain (but then again we dont live in a vaccume lol)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Yep, McCain 2000 whoops Obama's ass
However, if it wasn’t for the debacle that is the last eight years, Obama probably isn’t the nominee, either.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 23, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
heres all i have to say
if obama was white and inexperienced would he have beaten clinton?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Not a good question
He’s black. I mean, what if you were black? What would you be doing right now? If you want to ask the question “could a young, relatively inexperienced white male have beaten Clinton” I would say that anything’s possible.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
im trying to think of a good comparison of an inexperienced (white) guy
but i am braindead from work
how about this, if he wasnt as charismatic as he is would he have beaten clinton? no i dont think so
your right, its a bad question
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions
That's my point.
McCain had no negatives, except among evangelicals, in 2000. He may have been the most popular pol in the country.
So while the evangelicals could succumb to push polling and atwatering and whatnot, thus derailing McCain in the primaries, like we saw, if the 2000 McCain makes it to the general, he’s pretty unbeatable.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
If it was the McCain of 2000 as opposed to the McCain of 2008
I can’t guarantee I’d have voted for him, but I would’ve felt OK with the election turning out either way.
I can’t say the same today.
is it a case of
“obama will say anything to win”
while mccain will DO anything to win?
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
Why?
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I think
Obama would be winning against old McCain, new McCain, Romney, Huck, or anybody else. Now, if you said 2000 McCain would demolish Kerry, I’d agree.
by brettgardner on Oct 24, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
why do you think taht?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 24, 2008 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Look at
The buzz he creates. That’s going to beat most people in most years. I’d be saying the exact same thing if he were a Republican, too, if you’re disagreeing because you think I’m some partisan.
by brettgardner on Oct 24, 2008 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, but he is only 8 or 9 points up
With the last 8 years, and with McCain now LINKED significantly to Bush, unlike the 2000 McCain, and the economy, and it is still close?
Disagree.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
McCain blew it
when he didn’t oppose the bailout.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
How much better off we would have been if he had one the 2000 race...
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Hooked on phonics, I obviously meant "won"
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Every election
Is trapped in the context of its time, so it’s impossible, and illogical, to wrestle one candidate from context and leave the other one untouched.
by brettgardner on Oct 25, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Any real undecideds out there?
I’m interested to know if that demographic actually exists. There is what, 5-7% in each poll that don’t answer?
Now, you may be insane to actually admit you are undecided with this crowd – you’ll have enut and 4him spamming your e-mail with political ads for the rest of your life – but I’m honestly curious whether such a thing exists or if it is a media creation to get people to watch the news.
I got a few TMs a few weeks ago
Some stuff saying “Obama refuses to be sworn in with the Bible if elected President. He’s a muslim. Vote McCain”. And that was WAY after the whole “Obama is a Muslim” thing was floating around. I just laughed and erased it.
David Sedaris has some thoughts on undecideds
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2008/10/27/081027sh_shouts_sedaris
Dreaming of 2009
fun article
I like this quote
To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. "Can I interest you in the chicken?" she asks. "Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?"
To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.
I think that intelligent people can disagree about whether McCain or Obama will make a better President. But anyone who is truly “undecided” at this point really isn’t paying attention enough for me to want them to be voting.
I will say that “willing to change your mind” is not the same thing. In fact, I’d say that willing to change your mind is something I want most people to be open to.
i dont' agree with sedaris's characterization of the choices
but what could possibly be looking for to change your mind at this point?
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
I dunno
A string of hushed-up murders by one candidate being discovered or a huge scandal that sheds new light on how douchey and corrupt one of them is might do it.
Beyond that…
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 22, 2008 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions
i guarantee you
that if it came out tomorrow obama was still using drugs it would end it for him
mccain? i dont know what would totally sink his ship?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I think lots could sink McCain's ship
well… one could argue that it is already mostly underwater anyway. But his populist “I’ll pay off people’s mortgages” message was so horrendous that that alone could keep lots of supporters from voting for him. Fortunately for McCain, he’s backed off it some.
McCain is certainly walking a fine line politically, and has done a pretty good job of it. But as he starts throwing populist policies in there just to get elected, he becomes a much worse choice for President.
Obama could do the same thing too – of course. But he’s been ahead so he hasn’t had to resort to desperation tactics like that. I doubt his base would ever leave him (whereas McCain’s could just stay home). But Obama could lose independents by moving to the left on a major issue. He’s too smart to do that though, and doesn’t need to.
sry i meant things outside the polotical realm
wasnt specific
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Quasi-outside
Having some more “senior moments,” like he has had the last couple of days (which I don’t fault him for, campaigning is a beating of the highest order), more severe ones, would probably do it.
Also, if that bombastically vitriolic temper of his flares up on camera, I think that’d do it.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 23, 2008 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah
all he has to do is drop of a few f-bombs on national TV and he’s looking at a 20 point.
Funny enough this likely wouldn’t affect Obama’s chances. Not that he’d ever do that.
thats true
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions
David Sedaris...
is hilarious. My girlfriend bought me When You Are Engulfed in Flames, it’s great. The only one I haven’t read, I think, is Barrell Fever.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
forgot to mention
the online nickelodeon poll that had obama winning by only 1%
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
could the RNC
loan obama some wardrobe money?

"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
photoshopped?
somethnig is off in the picture….
or obama has hella long legs
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 22, 2008 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
real pic
it’s the angle that makes the legs look long
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
not photoshopped.
Shallow depth of field.
by Black Francis on Oct 22, 2008 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions
they both are
im sorry, but i do not really identify with either one of them. hell to start it off both made how many million last year? (or were worth it)
remember, were a republic lol
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions
hmmmm, that is what they want you to think!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081023/ap_on_el_pr/ap_poll_presidential_race
"Shut the F*** up Lloyd!!"- Superagent Mr. Gold
The media doesn't treat the campaigns differently...
nuh-uh, no way…
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/22/study_coverage_of_mccain_much.html
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Would you agree
with O’reilly that the media is “corrupt?”
"Obama is a Christian - He's always been a Christian...But.........what if he is[a Muslim]? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer is no, that's not America." Colin Powell on Obama/Muslim assertions.
But since story came from a media source
can it really be trusted?
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 22, 2008 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
awesome lol
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd like to see that study
What do they define as negative?
by Black Francis on Oct 22, 2008 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions
nah, it doesn't have anything to do
with the economic collapse, and mccain’s apparant cluelessness on the topic. nuh uh, no way…
just for fun...
again i qoute the man, myth and legend:
I’d also challenge you to point me to a post where I’ve used the terms “liberal media bias.”
~ benmor, “OT:DDT”
again, just because you don’t say the words, doesn’t mean its not a drum you beat….
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
One more thing...
When you run the most negative presidential campaign in recent history, deny the press access to your VP candidate, and forbid certain reporters from traveling with the campaign, what do they expect from the media?
"Jesus was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor"
you do realize he had to do it since the media luvs them some obama
lol
i keed i keed
but really, what did you want him to do. he had to do what he thought he had to do to win. he thought that to win he had to pick palin (which he probably did have to do), and had to protect her, and btw dont act like obama hasnt been negative himself here.
the point is he HAD to do it.
i mean, i guess when your losing in an election you SHOULD run clean ads and just give up, right?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Denies access to the VP?
Palin’s had more Q&A sessions with her press corps than Biden has the last month or so.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Insta-Ben
“I’m not on either side…it is just coincidence that I bitch constantly about one side while passionately defending everything the other side does.”
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I've never said I'm not on either side.
I’m on the side of divided government, which means that this cycle I’m supporting McCain.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
That's dumb.
That just means you have to vote for him, not defend every aspect of his campaign and whine all the time about media coverage.
by brettgardner on Oct 23, 2008 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Brett has a point.
I think that argument is complete crap. The fact your brother calls you out on it is pretty hilarious.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
No, Brett doesn't have a point.
And Adam believes all kinds of silly things.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
OK.
I’m voting for Obama. I’ve followed his career for three years now after reading “Dreams From My Father.” It’s no secret that I’m pro-Obama.
But I also like John McCain. I respect him, I think he’s got some terrific ideas and I think he’d make a decent President.
All that being said (I did so for the sake of transparency): Does anyone else think that Sarah Palin has made John McCain unelectable?
Consider the fact that if McCain is incapacitated, Sarah Palin would hold the same office as Abraham Lincoln.
Let that simmer in your mind for a little bit.
Sarah Palin… Franklin Roosevelt.
Sarah Palin… Ronald Reagan.
Sarah Palin… Thomas Jefferson.
Sarah Palin… George freakin’ Washington.
And it has nothing to do with her being a woman. She is just anti-intellectual, and that kind of scares me.
Oh, and she also thinks that the Vice President is “in charge of the U.S. Senate so if they want to they can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes.” Which is, you know, totally factually incorrect.
I just think that Palin would prove to be the biggest reason for a possible McCain loss.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
I do like
that the left can bring up Palin’s name, and the name alone conjures up the same level of horror that the the Right has for Pelosi. You just have to say the name and you get the shudder.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
That's exactly how I feel
I shake my head in disbelief at every sign that says “McCain – Palin”. How could anyone honestly believe that she deserves to be in the White House?
my thoughts
who were the other choices?
pawlenty? blah
ridge? would have been a very good pick…but not pro choice
lieberman? sinking ship. would have gotten smoked in a landslide obama victory
romney? in hindsight may have been a good choice, money wouldnt have been an issue (IIRC even w/ the money he took from the gov’t he can spend his own money during the strech run? any ideas?) + would help w/ economy
palin has helped to get more support from the right
now, was she the BEST choice? at the time probably. she was better than ridge/lieberman for sure. she was probably better than pawlenty as well. so that makes her what, at worst the #2 pick?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions
romney would look genius right now...
…would be the equivelent of obama picking warren buffett…
“oh, the economy is screwed up?… i’m still making money, let me do it for us!”
romney would have been a great pick at this point, but the republican base wouldn’t have come out in droves…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
heh
yea thats true
like i said though, was she better than ridge/pawlenty/lieberman
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions
It sure didn't help with his ongoing argument that Obama wasn't ready
Because he looks 700 times more ready than Palin does.
I'd say so.
I have several friends that lean right, that can’t bring themselves to vote for McCain because of Palin.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
If you're not a far right winger
…the pick smacks of judgment problems, and when you’re running against the idea that you’re Bush-like, that’s not a very good problem to have at all.
I disagree with Knockout in that there’s no way she should have even been in contention for VP. There are a LOT of people he could’ve chosen who would’ve been better choices. There are a lot of Republicans out there.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions
who do you think he should have picked that would have given him a better chance though?
personally i was quite interested in jindel but then with the hurricane/him saying no tahnks basically that was that
i didnt mind crest (gov of FL ) either
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions
btw other than romney
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Just about anybody
If he were truly a maverick he wouldn’t have worried so much about appeasing the base, just like he didn’t worry about it in 2000 when he was a stronger candidate. Bush made him his bitch only because the GOP establishment got behind him really early and he had a shit ton of money.
The Republican Party has thousands of members and holds thousands of elected offices across the country. You’re going to say she was second best among all of them? If that’s true then your party really does suck, man, because Palin hasn’t been very impressive to most people.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions
easy to say
but when you want to win you want to win
who would risk political suicide just to thumb his nose at the party?
btw, if obama were “truly bringing change to washington” he wouldnt have picked biden btw…
and fwiw, palin did what she was supposed to do whic h was energize the base, his chance to win
you think him going with his heart, lieberman, would have been a winner? fuck no. would have been the biggest landslide of the last 50+ years
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Winning
It was a bad pick in terms of winning. She’s energized the base, but that didn’t matter because it was too late in the game. McCain had blown so much money early on that his ground game is still suffering. Even if the evangelicals got in earlier they still need help from the campaign itself.
So his only chance at winning was to grab undecideds and independents, and Sarah Palin has not helped there. There must have been someone in the Republican Party who would’ve been a better pick is all I’m saying. Agreed about Lieberman. He may have indeed brought over some independents and the like but he would have driven away others. McCain should have chosen someone fiscally conservative and socially moderate-leaning-right. The evangelicals would show up just to vote against the Democratic ticket so yeah, he could have taken him for granted.
I don’t think Biden was a bad pick on behalf of Obama. Biden’s been in the Senate a long time, yes, but I think he’s clearly on board with the kind of change Barack Obama’s talking about.
But, anyway, McCain lost this election back in 2007. He only got the nomination because the Republican field was so weak. It’s just not his year. 2000 was, but unfortunately for all of us the money started flowing to W like crazy, and he was also someone who thrilled the evangelical folks. Perfect storm.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions
you really think that if he had picked pawlenty/ridge/lieberman he would be even CLOSE?
yes, romney would look like a great pick…in HINDSIGHT
who do you think he would have picked?
and if you blast mccain for not being the “maverick” by picking palin but then are ok w/ the biden pick thats a fucking huge double standard.
he’s clearly on board with the kind of change Barack Obama’s talking about.
ya know what, i bet palin is “on board” with what mccains talking about as well…
you cant blast mccain for “not being a maverick” and taking palin then talk about how good the obama pick of biden was.
now a pick of kane would have been a “pick for change” but he didnt pick
my undersatndin is that he paniked and picked biden
not that it matters, but he would have won in a landslide had he picked clinton imho
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions
It's not close
As of right now, anyway, this election is nowhere near close in the electoral college.
I don’t know who I would have picked because I’m not a Republican and no longer work in politics to the extent that I know all the players in the other party. But I do know that I wouldn’t have picked someone like Palin. I would have targeted independents and undecideds like I said.
The ‘maverick’ thing. Let’s ignore the fact that McCain was much more of a maverick in 2000 than he is these days. I’m sure even you’d agree with that. And I will agree with you that Palin is indeed something of a maverick in that she’s apparently willing to take on business interests and appears to have a sincere disdain for corruption (I never really cared about "troopergate"). But the fact remains that she doesn’t help pull in independents and the like. Maybe if she were better known she would have, but she’s not. She just hasn’t added anything to the campaign that really counts. I’m trying to be objective about this. Who’s winning more self-identified independents: Obama or McCain? What was the trend after the Palin choice?
I don’t think there’s any evidence that Biden was a “panicked” decision. Clinton would have been the obvious choice in terms of winning the election, but after the election was over it would have presented problems. I’ve always liked Biden and think he was a good choice because he’s not going to drive away Democrats, independents, and undecideds. He’s also a smart guy who’d be an asset in the White House.
The partisan side of me wants to talk about other stuff regarding Palin, but I will leave it there and just say this: McCain has a bunch of disadvantages and wasn’t going to win this election unless he ran a flawless campaign after the primaries were over. He didn’t, and his VP choice is a part of that in my opinion.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions
But the fact remains that she doesn’t help pull in independents and the like. Maybe if she were better known she would have, but she’s not.
i agree with that but that said mccain to me seemed to be pulling further and further away from the basewho was getting more and more disenchanged with him, palin changed that
biden is smart, he would be a great asset (not saying that at all)
but my thought was that for “change”, etc biden was a pretty not so much good choice (in my conservative eyes) from that side
and +1 on the mccain disadvantages, if ridge was pro-choice he would have been almost perfect in my eyes (wildly popular in penn., strong on homeland security (duh!), etc BUT that was his killer)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, but you could have got the base to turn out
by saying black, communist, muslim, terrorist-sympathizer. Didnt need the VP for those Jesus Freaks.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Palin and McCain's flawed campaign
I think Palin is too easy a target for McCain’s impending loss, and your analysis is pretty fair about it. She’s not a strong pick – but I’d argue that she does what she was intended to do. Whether that strategy (tactic?) was correct may be a different story.
McCain put himself in a position that made his VP selection matter too much. Between receiving the nomination and picking Palin, McCain was floundering in some netherland between the Right and Moderates. He tried desperately to make both sides happy for 3-4 months there, resulting in the watered down Independent McCain with little cross-over appeal, yet still not trusted by his base. He managed to put himself in a position where no one liked him.
So he had a choice – pick a conservative VP choice and make the Right happy, allowing him to run to the middle safely; or pick a moderate guy and keep trying to run to the Right. I think McCain thought that Palin may have the potential to be a pick for the Right, but her charisma and limited history taking on corruption would allow her to sufficient to the moderates and he could close the deal by running his type of campaign without worrying about Rush Limbaugh.
Palin’s problems aside, I think the flaw was that McCain didn’t hold up his end of the deal. Palin could be ultra-conservative, botching interviews all day long so long as McCain actually ran as McCain 2000. But McCain stayed in that nether-land between moderate and conservative, He never gave independents a reason to vote for him. That was his responsibility, not Palin, and not that of anyone else he would have picked.
McCain lost this election because I think he just lost his edge in being John McCain.
Joe Biden could step on day one and be a respectable president
Sarah Palin could not.
That’s the big difference.
McCain's puzzle
is that without Palin, he never would have gotten the socially conservative vote. I know LOTS of people who are only going to vote in this election (for McCain) because of Palin.
It obviously was a pick that alienated a big number of people. But I think that it got him more votes from the right than you realize.
yea i agree with this
but then again palin and i share a lot of viewpoints
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
It probably did get him more votes from the right.
But we all know that this election is going to be decided by independents (like myself), and well… she’s not winning indys.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
No
without Palin, he never would have gotten the socially conservative vote
I don’t believe that for a second.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions
i think one of two things would have happened
either people would have voted for mccain because he was not obama
or people wouldnt have come out at all
i think you underestimate how little john mccain (especially the ’00 mccain) does/did for the “base” of the party.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions
x
i think you underestimate how little john mccain (especially the ’00 mccain) does/did for the "base" of the party.
I disagree. I don’t think the base likes McCain at all…if the base would have coalesced around a single candidate in the primaries, rather than having several people it supported, McCain wouldn’t have been the nominee.
But I don’t believe the Dobson crowd would have just stayed home.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
don’t think the base likes McCain at all…
this is what i meant?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
and i doubt ALL the dobson crowd would have stayed home
…but i bet a lot would have
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
In any case...
…this makes Palin the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in 2012…
Which would pretty much guarantee Obama 2 terms.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Hmmmm
What about when McCain hits the media circuit after he loses and scapegoats her.
Speaking of, doesn’t she have to run in 2012? What, traditionally, do VP candidates who are sitting Governors do after they lose?
If she runs in 2012 and doesn’t win the nomination, it’s her political career dead at a very young age?
Just thinking out loud.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
x
What about when McCain hits the media circuit after he loses and scapegoats her.
I think it is more likely Palin hits the Rush/Hannity/Dobson circuit and says she wanted to take it to Obama and talk about the things that really matter to Joe Sixpack, but McCain just wouldn’t do it.
If anyone gets scapegoated, it will be McCain. He’ll be blamed for being too soft, too moderate, not a true believer, and Palin will be another McGovern or Dukakis come 2012.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
heres a question
can she beat bobby jindel?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
bobby jindal won't run in 2012
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Very possible
But I think McCain is a grade a A-hole with a giant ego that will not allow him to go quietly after he loses.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
Well
The base already didn’t like him, and they’ll view him bitching about Palin as yet another betrayal of conservative beliefs in a long line of them.
It would just make Palin more popular.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Again very possible
Should be some good laughs when McCain does SNL after the election.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
If Palin is smart
she’ll go back to Alaska, be the governor for the next 2/6 years, and then run for Senate (either against Stevens (or whoever wins this year) in 2014, or an intraparty challenge to Murkowski in 2010). Then let someone else be a sacrificial lamb to Obama in 2012, and then Palin can come back onto the national scene far more qualified and vetted than now in 2016. She’ll have been either a 2 term governor or a 1 term governor and a Senator – both strong track records – and will have gone through a national campaign.
But you’re right, she’ll probably be stupid and run in 4 years and get slaughtered
They would have turned out
to defeat the Commie Muslim-extremist black terrorist, regardless of the VP.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
The Dobson crowd
First, I’ll confess I am NOT one of them. But I know many who are.
Their fundamental fear is that whoever is the next President will stack the courts with pro-choice, anti-religion judges. If you talk to those people, they are fully convinced that McCain is JUST AS BAD as Obama.
If they boycotted McCain and he lost huge, then they’d have flexed their muscle in the Republican Party. McCain HAD to throw them a bone. He wasn’t going to promise ultra-conservative judges or anything (that’d kill him in the general election), so he offered them Palin. He figured it’d be a statement that the right would care about but no one else would. Prior to Palin, the CW was that VP doesn’t affect people’s choices.
What's an anti-religion judge?
What does that entail, exactly?
I’m genuinely wondering.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 23, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't know
Against God in the pledge of allegiance?
Says high school football coaches can’t lead team prayers?
Allow’s gay marriage?
I have no idea – but those are the types of things they would probably say are anti-religion.
Ah, okay.
So people who are pro-separation of church and state are anti-religion.
That’s disappointing.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 23, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
i agree with a.j.
…the conservative right might not have come out at 100%… but who else would they have voted for?… they are more ardent about voiting than most groups and would eventually have voted for mccain out of fear for the black guy… they definitly wouldn’t have been swing voters… mccain should have gone after the middle from the start and let the base come to him out of their lack of options…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 23, 2008 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
but thats kind of the point
people WOULDNT come out to vote and for mccain to win he had to get as much of the base as he could imo
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions
They wouldn't have voted
Prior to Palin lots of these churchgoing, classic red meat conservatives had conceded the election entirely. When I’d ask about McCain, they said “I’m not voting for him because of X” I know lots of these people – because I fought with them saying that they were being silly. They were adamant.
They obviously weren’t going to vote for Obama. But they’d sit home and not vote. Palin changed that. If he had picked a Lieberman or Ridge, sure he’d have nailed many of the independents (10-20% of the country), but that 40% base would have dried up fast, and he’d still be looking at a 10+ point deficit.
I disagree
since I think, for the most part, this election is a referendum on Barrack Obama. On the ballot, they might as well put:
Obama — D
Not That One — R
Here again why I think the Repubs made a huge mistake by nominating McCain. I think this is a really interesting race if either Romney or Huckabee had received the nomination. At the same time, I think Clinton would have crushed any of the Repub nominees.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree that McCain was a disaster choice
and I think that was the problem. McCain is reviled amongst certain Republicans (I won’t say conservatives, necessarily). Hated. For the same reason that many liberals have always claimed they would be “okay” with McCain (up until now), those people despised him.
With his VP choice, he really had three options. Go for the independents with Lieberman or Ridge – but then he’d have lost the far right 20% of the party. Go for a conventional boring pick (Romney, Pawlenty), but then he risks not making inroads with either independents or his base. Or go for a pick to vitalize base and hope that independents like them also. By picking Palin, he shored up the base, and he took a risk that maybe independents would like her. Obviously he was wrong.
But I promise you – if he had picked someone who made independents happy (save possibly Romney), he’d lose this race by 15 points.
There was an article recently in... I believe the New Yorker
And it wasn’t that anyone in the campaign thought she was the best choice, so much as she was the choice by attrition. That is never, ever a good way to choose the candidate for vice presidency.
At least McCain knows whats going to sink his campaign.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/23/mccain-lambastes-bush-years/
“Spending, the conduct of the war in Iraq for years, growth in the size of government, larger than any time since the Great Society, laying a $10 trillion debt on future generations of America, owing $500 billion to China, obviously, failure to both enforce and modernize the [financial] regulatory agencies that were designed for the 1930s and certainly not for the 21st century, failure to address the issue of climate change seriously,” Mr. McCain said in an interview with The Washington Times aboard his campaign plane en route from New Hampshire to Ohio.
“Those are just some of them,” he said with a laugh, chomping into a peanut butter sandwich as a few campaign aides in his midair office joined in the laughter.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
See...
…I can’t hate John McCain. He seems like a good enough guy; we just disagree on big issues.
Every time I’ve seen him talk away from the political arena (Daily Show, Letterman, that Catholic charities roast), I’ve really come away impressed.
The problem is that when he starts talking about how we have to be proactive with our foreign policy (read: pick more fights) and that the “health of the mother” is just a loophole, I just can’t take him seriously.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
heh add biden to the list of what might sink obama
same article as cahill linked
Mr. McCain said Mr. Biden has now as much as acknowledged that the world will be more dangerous if Mr. Obama wins the presidential election.
“We live in a dangerous world and Senator Obama’s running mate has just assured Americans it’ll be a heck of a lot more dangerous if you elect him president,” he said.
Mr. Biden predicted at a fundraiser Sunday that if elected president, Mr. Obama would face immediate challenge from a hostile power or terrorist group intent on testing the first-term senator.
“Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember, I said it standing here, if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”
Mr. Biden said Mr. Obama would have to make “some really tough” decisions when that occurs, adding emphatically: “As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you it’s going to happen.”
The Democratic vice-presidential running mate said he could envision four or five scenarios, citing the Middle East and Russia.
Mr. McCain called Mr. Biden’s comment “the most remarkable comment I have ever seen in presidential politics.”
“Now he is saying — if we elected Senator Obama as president of the United States we are going to have an international crisis in these very dangerous times with the economy in the tank?” Mr. McCain said.
At a press conference Wednesday in Virginia, Mr. Obama noted Mr. Biden’s words, saying that although “Joe sometimes engages in rhetorical flourishes,” his central point was correct and a reason to back the Democratic team.
“His core point was, the next administration is going to be tested, regardless of who it is,” Mr. Obama said. “The question is: Will the next president meet that test by moving America in a new direction, by sending a clear signal to the rest of the world that we are no longer about bluster and unilateralism and ideology?”
In a statement, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responded: “It’s not leadership for Barack Obama to promise to be straight with Americans, only to dismiss serious statements and concern from his own running mate as simple ‘rhetorical flourishes.’”
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
That's a terrific spin job by McCain.
Biden was commenting on the fact that yes, in the first months of his Presidency, he will be tested. Then he went on to say that he is completely ready to take on any challenge.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
it was a joke since biden has also said numerous other things about obama and that agree with mccain
im actually somewhat suprised no one has brought up his cutting iraq into 3 areas by ethnicity lines lol
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions
The cutting up of Iraq
happens with us involved or without us involved is my guess. Within a year of us pulling apart, my guess is you will see the Shi’ites in the south trying to secede with the oil.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
if the kurds all congregate in the north eventually “kurdistan” will try to break away from turkey and turkey will NEVER, EVER let that happen.
they will invade kurdistan/iraq if they try to break away (and they will)
you can bet on that.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions
I believe its very likely to happen
after we leave. I really think it’s inevitable that Iraq goes “Yugoslavia” on us, and trying to hold it together without a strong central force isn’t going to happen, and I doubt our military will continue to be that strong central force indefinitely.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
i agree with this to a poitn
but what happens when turkey invades iraq?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions
I always thought that was a good idea of Biden's
Since it is practically inevitable that an Iraq not run by an iron fist will divide into three parts, it would have made sense to gear our post-war plan to ensure that the transformation was peaceful (as peaceful as possible) and fair. Instead, it’ll likely just go into a 2nd civil war.
There is this weird sovereignty tradition at the UN and in the State department that we should always honor national boundaries and be fundamentally opposed to having more countries. Obviously this is because so many important UN nations (Russia, China) and US allies (i.e., Turkey) have strong separatist factions. But a 3 state solution, with properly negotiated division of oil rights, etc, always made sense to me.
Yep
always honor national boundaries, even if they were artificially put on the map by the British less than a hundred years ago. Most of the mideast problems are due to artificial British map-making early last century.
If we don’t divide into 3 while we are there, they will divide into 3 after we leave, and, as KoK points out, the Turks will come in, perhaps followed by the Iranians, and we will probably have to come back with the UN.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
the turks will invade if it comes to it
IIRC they almost did when we came into iraq in the first place.
they have a STRONG kurd population who wants to break away in their south and add it to a kurdish population that wants independence in the the northern part of iraq and you have a powerkeg waiting to happen
if we did the 3 state thing what would we have done when this happened. how does oil rights get divided in that case? does turkey get some of the money?
its going to be a HUGEEEEEEEEEEEE clusterfuck
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess what I'm telling you
is we end up with 3 states either when we are there, or when we are not there. Sure Turkey is going to do something about an independant Kurdistan. However, after we leave, how do you propose to keep it from happening?
We can control the situation when we are there, we have no prayer of controlling it after we leave, and I doubt the American people will support a redeployment.
I see about zero chance of the civil war not happening after we leave, and we are going to leave.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
right and right
when we go it will probably go to hell
the question is will this lead to a backlash against whoever the president in power is?
what effect will this have on the cost of oil?
does oil rich iraq attach itself to iran?
does the oil rich part of iraq join OPEC?
question cahill: what do you think we should do? leave ASAP?
its going to be a giant clustefuck…and of course it should be interesting because of syria/turkey/iran/israel already in the region
what happens w/ kurdistan/turkey/iraq and iraq/iran could be catastrophic
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I think we should start dividing it up
while we are there. Because its going to be less of a clusterfuck if we are there to control it then it will be if we are gone. Us being in there will help keep Turkey and Iran out. Us being gone almost insures they will get involved.
I thought we should have tried to divide it earlier though. Time is ticking on our stay there, though
1) The American people won’t let the deployment go on indefinitely.
2) Our Military really can’t react to anything else with half its combat force in Iraq, and the other half repairing, retraining and refitting from Iraq.
3) We can’t afford the level of military presence we have at the tax rates Americans want to pay. It costs a lot of money to keep combat brigades deployed.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
once again the 3 points are true
but i dont know if we can control it
again, IIRC turkey basically said they would invade no matter what in order to keep southern turkey from breaking away
iran,eh wont get involved while were there i dont think
but then again i dont think that having us in the area kept them from doing too much as it was…they arent going to march their army across the border i dont think
its gonna be bad…
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Iran is already involved
We have to buy off the militias there to keep the peace.
But yeah, like I and many others have said since before the invasion, this thing is going to be a mess. Dick Cheney said it himself when he was asked why we didn’t go all the way to Baghdad in 1991. Ethnic and religious animosity galore. Suppressed for decades by a dictator and the moment we leave all hell is going to break loose.
To be honest sometimes I don’t even think it matters when we leave. We cannot stop Iraq from destroying itself until it starts to already, and then we go in with a true coalition to stop it and come up with a solution, which will likely be a multi-state one. We cannot occupy Iraq forever. We may as well get out now and get ready to go right back. If not now, the same thing will happen later.
And this is why the “surge” is so misleading. Well the surge is what it is, but those who say we’re winning because of it don’t understand the whole picture. We literally are paying off militias (terrorists) to knock it off. That together with a larger troop presence has helped things to settle down, but both are band aid solutions.
I’m not any more optimistic about the endgame in Iraq than I was two years ago, four years ago, or five years ago. We’re talking about something that could very easily end up in a regional war involving Iraq, groups within Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and maybe Syria. Ethnic cleansing and the whole bit.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions
talking about something that could very easily end up in a regional war involving Iraq, groups within Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and maybe Syria. Ethnic cleansing and the whole bit.
.
agreed
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
i gotta believe...
…if biden believed that barack couldn’t stand whatever “international crisis” was coming ready he wouldn’t of brought it up… it spin by dissection and its really lame that american people are dumb enough to take things that far out of context….
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
now this could actually get interesting - no matter who is elected
Mr. McCain said Mr. Obama’s giant fundraising total — he announced this weekend that he raised more than $150 million in September — is going to produce “a scandal.”
His campaign and the Republican National Committee have released the names of all his donors, including those who have contributed less than $200. That’s not required by federal election rules, and Mr. Obama has declined to release his small-dollar donors, leading to speculation that some donors are trying to circumvent fundraising laws.
“History is a clear indicator. Senator Obama has unleashed a force which we will pay a very heavy price for sometime in the future if not now, because it’s very unlikely we can track down and document the contributions that he refuses to reveal,” said Mr. McCain, who co-authored a bipartisan bill to overhaul campaign fundraising laws.
wasnt there already some questions about obama taking money from foreign nationals?
the story is actually a pretty good read…
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
who obamas or mccains?
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Donors/
can search by state/name/zip/etc
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Donors
I think only actual US citizens should be allowed to make donations. No corps, LLCs, unions, etc.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
I imagine that would be impossible to enforce
in a country with free speech.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
what will happen is whats already happening
companies will give their people bouuses and request they give it to a certain political candidate
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions
heh
in chicago a pet fish got a voter registration material lol
The only “agent of change” Princess ever supported was the person who refreshed the water in her fishbowl. Now Lake County election officials want to investigate out how the dead goldfish received voter registration material.
Paperwork sent to a “Princess Nudelman” likely came from the “Women’s Voices, Women Vote” project, said Lake County Clerk Willard Helander, a Republican, who said she has spotted problems with nearly 1,000 voter registrations this year.
“I am just stunned at the level of people compromising the integrity of the voting process,” Helander said Monday. She wants to require some voters to show IDs at the polls if she finds that problems, including nonexistent addresses and questionable signatures or registrations, are clustered in certain precincts.
Beth Nudelman of Buffalo Grove, who owned the fish, said Princess may have ended up on a mailing list because the family once filled in the pet’s name when they got a second phone line for a computer.
“There was no fraud involved,” said Nudelman, a Democrat and supporter of presidential candidate Barack Obama. “This person is a dead fish.”
In August, Women’s Voices, Women Vote sent nearly 1 million mailings to Illinois households using a list that mistakenly included some pets, said Sarah Johnson, a spokeswoman for the not-for-profit Washington, D.C.-based group that seeks to encourage more voting among single women.
The mailing list, purchased from a commercial vendor, included names from warranties, magazine subscriptions and other sources where people may have filled in a pet’s name, Johnson said. The group attempted to screen out the obvious ones.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
omg not 1000 voter registrations!!!! that'll swing the entire election!!!
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 23, 2008 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
of course
1000 here, 1000 there, that doesnt make a difference
which is why both sides are going after the other regarding voting lists/registration/fraud
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions
That's like saying...
a few fraudulent $500 – $1000 Obama donations are no big deal.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
but has he only taken a few? (no one knows)
have there only been 1000 shady voter registrations? (no one knows)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Exactly...
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2008/10/021856.php
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
OK, again.
Voter registration fraud is an exceptionally small problem, because Mickey Mouse and Duran Duran aren’t showing up to vote.
Just pointing that out.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
you really think its not a big deal?
btw im including voter fraud to stripping names from voter rolls
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions
I really think that voter registration fraud is not a big deal, yes.
Now, if someone starts registering his REAL name 15 times and voting 15 times, that’s voter fraud.
But registering Mickey Mouse to vote isn’t going to result in anything harmful, because he’s not going to show up at the polls. ACORN is really getting screwed here, because these people they hire are filling out fake voter registration forms just to get paid.
“If I fill out one for each of the Looney Tunes characters, I’ll make a bunch of money!”
It just sucks for ACORN, because not only are they losing money because of these people, but they’re also getting (unfairly, IMO) demonized by the media.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
ACORN gets what it deserves
you make wages based on that kind of incentive, that’s exactly what happens. we’ve seen the same shenanigans in incentive stock option plans. books are cooked to meet the incentive.
and its my understanding this
a) isnt the first time ACORN has gotten in trouble for something like this
and
b) is not all that is going on
one way or another it shouldnt be allowed…
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I did read a good point
That while the problem isn’t as much that these fake people are actually voting (though who knows if people are abusing absentee rules in some states), but the problem really is that we’ll inevitably hear “only 60% of registered voters actually voted in the election” and “voter turnout was 30% in this minority precinct – there must have been voter suppression, people must have thrown away their votes!”
Even if everyone knows that isn’t the case, you’ll get people telling segments of the population that the Republicans made sure their votes didn’t count. And they’ll point to the discrepancies in registration/actual turnout as evidence
Ha, I called it
Palin’s $150K wardrobe will be going to charity, just as I predicted in the other therad.
Really, the smart thing for the RNC to do would be to say that after the election they plan to auction the dresses off for charity. All the rich white women who love Palin will gladly shell out more than cost to get her dress.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/22/mccain-palins-wardrobe-donated-charity/
No mention of the rich white women buying it at auction though.
uh, NOW they are
just sayin.
will it be the same type of charity that barbara bush donated to after katrina? you know, the one that went to her son. the fake charity.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
Aaagggghhh...!
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/10/23/would-obama-dems-kill-401k-plans.html
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
If that even came close to happening
you would see a massive rollover from 401ks to IRAs.
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
You'd probably...
also see a movement from paid employees to contractors (so that they could use SEP IRA’s) at middle management and above in corporate settings.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
The chances of that happening...
…are about nil…
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I disagree.
Politicians taking advantage of the general public’s fear of the market? Not nil.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Oh, yeah, I forgot...
It is Obama, the scary black Muslim socialist/communist, coming to strip people’s 401ks from them.
What a sack of crap.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't care...
if Obama is black, and in the hypothetical scenario that he were a Muslim, I couldn’t give a shit. The socialist label, though, is much more concerning.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Yeah, yeah...
Because Obama is a socialist, and is going to take away everyone’s 401k plans with the connivance of the liberal media, because Joe Sixpack is too dumb to know any better and will be scared into going along with it.
Right.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Wouldn't surprise me.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Hah.
I love it when you run out of arguments (which generally happens pretty quickly).
by brettgardner on Oct 23, 2008 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Are you forgetting
that Buffett, quoted liberally in that article, has Obama’s ear?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Buffett is a socialist, too
He’s giving away all his wealth before he dies. Thus, he’s in favor of “redistributing wealth.” That’s socialism, right there.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Heh
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
This has as much chance of happening
as Clinton’s Health care proposals in 1992.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
haha
Mr. Presumptive President Elect, anyway.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions
The
Barack my world chick is hot.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
+1
Thanks for the link Longhorn.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
i think hes talking about this?
McCain staffer says she was mugged, had ‘B’ cut into face
Thursday, October 23, 2008
By Michael A. Fuoco, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Pittsburgh Police are investigating a report by a campaign staffer for John McCain that she was mugged and the letter B was cut into her face following a robbery in Bloomfield last night.
Police say the 20-year-old woman, who is from Texas, reported that the attack occurred after she withdrew money from an ATM at Liberty Avenue and Pearl Street.
She said a man armed with a knife demanded her money. She gave it to him and began walking toward her car, which has McCain stickers.
Although the robber had moved away from her, he became agitated when he saw her car, punched her in the back of the head, pushed her to the ground and carved a B into her face, she reported.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Why the letter B?
oBama? Bush? Bitch?
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
i presumed that was what longhorn was linking to?
beyond that idk
people will make assumptions because she worked for mccain
barack? who knows
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Bullshit?
Which is apparently what even Michelle Malkin is calling this story.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah
but uberlibs like BZA tend to shrug stuff like that off because it’s the norm of their ilk. He must be use to it by now…
heh
I’ve never been shot at with a pellet gun, but try putting an Obama sticker on your car and driving around Frisco. I’ve had people yell, cut me off in an open roadway, flip me off, and give me really dirty looks at gas stations. Very uncivil, but the difference is I know that even though it’s happened numerous times, I will not pretend it’s the fucking norm. How many people live in the Plano/Frisco area? 400,000? Most are probably Republicans and most apparently don’t give a shit what sticker I have on my car.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions
enjoy that lol
i just stay away from talking about politics at work and at home (live with 2 dems lol)
makes everything easier.
confine it to this board + my political oriented friends (of whom 90% are democrats/liberals lol)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Go play in the kiddy pool.
I come home from class and find this guy lumping me in with scum. Where did I give the impression that I was for knifing women? Who employs you? Do you gather up golf balls at the driving range? I guess they had to find someone to do that.
Of course I don’t shrug this off. It’s terrible. There are crazy people out there on both sides of the aisle. However, lumping me in with someone like that is completely idiotic and typical from your dumb ass.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
evidently the "most accurate pollster in 04" is saying its a close race
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536
IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven
McCain has cut into Obama’s lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.
obama: 44.8
mccain: 43.7
undecided: 11.6
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
Who needs Drudge..
..When we got you?
Anything else you saw on drudge you want to tell us about?
"Jesus was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor"
i just linked to it
now im about to link to what 538 says about it…chill
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions
wait
you mean i support mccain?
that must mean i copletely ignore all news that i dont agree with
and that i dont want that “radical black muzlem en pow’r fer the next fore years” and i live in the sticks?
/sarcasm
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions
i live in DC. SW DC for what thats worth.
i work at a place that is OVERWHELMINGLY pro-obama
i have a college degree in political science, i will go to law school one day.
i conider myself to be educated, quite a bit in international affarirs and domestic affairs.
but am i a moron for supporting mccain?
is my viewpoint worth any less than anyone elses because i dont agree with you?
comethefuckon
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions
but am i a moron for supporting mccain?
is my viewpoint worth any less than anyone elses because i dont agree with you?
nope and nope.
Why has obama refused to disclose his birth certificate?
…are you SURE?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions
But, of course, your contention is that all democrats and liberals are morons.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions
not at all
there are valid viewpoints on both sides, and hell i can see how someone who was pro-choice can have a valid viewpoint.
do i agree with it? no but is it something that an intelligent person can backup/support and that i can understand? yes
its like ron paul, do i like his foreign policy? no but can i agree/debate with people who do/who think its valid? of course
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 24, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
He was replying to Longhorn
It seems his brain consists of little more than an AM radio tuned to conservative talk radio.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
oops
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 24, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes, I see nothing to believe that you aren't a bright, reasonable guy that tries to see the other side of an argument
I will say, however, that I don’t think Newt truly believes that statement in your signature, and hopefully you don’t either.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
You're not a moron
If people at work are suggesting that you are, you should figuratively use argument to beat the shit out of them. People who resort to calling you a moron aren’t typically good at arguing, and even a life long Democrat like me understands that a lot of the conservative ideology makes sense. There are lots of ways to embarrass these kinds of dolts who will insult you on the basis of disagreement.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions
just people on here
see its possible to have a talk with you because you understand there are other viewpoints out there that are just as valid as yours, even if you dont agree to them
bravo, sir
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
By the way
…I lived in DC for a while. Well, Arlington on Columbia PIke. Took the bus to the Pentagon every morning where I caught the metro to get to work near the hill. It was a hell of a lot of fun.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions
yea i live in SW
work up by mchpearson
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
read 538's interpretation of the poll
particularly their breakdown of 18-24 year olds who went something like 72/28 for McCain
heres my question
what if it IS just a typo?
wonder if that skews it at all?
we will see tomorrow (will update)
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
fivethirtyeight post about it (nate silver)
So, there is an 0.000000002% chance that IBD/TIPP just got really unlucky. Conversely, there is a 99.999999998% chance that one of the following things is true:
(i) They’re massively undersampling the youth vote. If you only have, say, 30 young voters when you should have 100 or so in your sample, than the odds of a freak occurrence like this are significantly more likely.
-or-
(ii) Something is dramatically wrong with their sampling or weighting procedures, or their likely voter model.
My guess is that it’s some combination of the two — that, for instance, IBD/TIPP is applying a very stringent likely voter model that removes you from the sample if you haven’t voted in the past two elections, which would rule a great number of 18-24 year olds out.
A pollster could get away with a turnout model like that in 2004 (when IBD/TIPP did well in estimating the national popular vote), when the split in the youth vote was relatively small between John Kerry and George W. Bush. They can’t get away with that this year, when the split is much larger
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
That poll sucks
Nate Silver already ripped it to shreds on 538.
The poll says McCain is beating Obama with the 18-24 y/o’s 74-22.
"Jesus was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor"
I'll believe
that the 18-24s turn out strong when they do. The talk of 18-24 turnout has been much higher than the actuality for the last 20 years it seems like.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
thank you
they have been talking about it for how many years?
as a member of the 18-24 age group i know that a lot of ppl talk the talk but when it comes down to it they do jack shit
maybe obama will change that…but like cahill…illl believe it when i see it
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
The turnouts in the primaries were higher than usual.
That said, the issue isn’t the turnout, but whether 74% of the 18-24 group is going to vote for McCain.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions
im not saying anything about the 74% for mccain (i am a mccain suppporter and i KNOW its not that high)
im sayin gi doubt as many people who have said they will vote..do vote…especially in the 18-24 range
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions
ok?
What does that have to do with the fact that their sampling of the age group is probably 50 points wrong?
"Jesus was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor"
im not talking about their sampling age group #
im saying overall i bet the 18-24 age group does not show up…again…like it has continued to do (not show up) for the last how long?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions
hmmm
Wanna bet?
In 2004, the 18-30 group turned out at almost 52. I’m guessing it will pass 60 this time.
"Jesus was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor"
wanna bet?
yes…i have how many years of history on my side?
2004: 18-24 turnout was 47. went up 11
2004: 25-34 turnout was 49, up 9
overall turnout was at 60, up 4
18-34 went up 15% and was still only 51.5% (52). you think it jumps ANOTHER 11 points for 18-34? jumping 24% (from 36% in ’00) to 60% in 08 among 18-24 year olds?
how much do you want to bet on that?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
turnout info?
Where are you getting it at? I saw 51.9 for 2004.
"Jesus was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor"
i saw 51.5
.4%, big whoop
it was census info btw
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions
If the sample size
of the 18-24s is small, and their turnout is low, it likely doesn’t matter in the big picture numbers how they turnout.
If you poll 1000 folks, and only 19 of them are 18-24, it scarcely matters in the big picture of things if they split 14-5 or 5-14.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
the problem with the poll was that they sampled more than 1.9% at 18-24
so the discrepancy can come almost exclusively from the error in sampling.
Even if they had reduced their 18-24 numbers, Obama probably has a significant lead
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
also
realize the last few days it had been closer to 45-45 each way
and like nate said, depending on their model this may be the way it happens (45-45, not 75-25)
now heres a question, if i linked to HP would say the same thing, i seriouslyseriouslyseriously doubt it.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions
regarding that poll that has obama up only 1 pt
it’s wrong. but so are the polls that have him up 14 pts.
his lead is probably between 6pts and 10 pts. when you average the 13 and 14 pt polls with the 2 1 pts polls you get 7 pts.
that’s about where all the OTHER polls are.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
rcp and 538 averages of those polls
*they don’t use the same polls, but you get the idea…


for the average to get to even, it would be a VERY sharp drop. sharper even than obama’s rise after the debates started and the RNC/Palin bounce wore off. but like we all know, the national polls aren’t important, but the state polls. but the national polls LEAD the state polls for the most part. mccain will need to take advantage of obama’s time in hawaii.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
do i think mccain will win? no
do i think mccain COULD win? possibly
it should be interesting to see if obama coninues to trend down or if he stablilizes in the 538 poll/etc
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions
The donation story...
this is right about the time that he wouldn’t have a whole lot of time for damage control, if the media decides to run with it.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
yea
depending on what happens/if he releases it
…which i doubt he does for that very reason
that said, i wouldnt be at all suprised if a fair amount of the $$ is from shady sources, etc.
150 mil in one month is too much not to have some funny money in it lol
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions
continues to trend down?
how is he trending down?
the 538 isn’t really a trending down. the red line is the trend and it’s pretty stable. i guess technically is trending down, but at the pace it would about 3 1/2 months for it to reach tie status
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
lol
yea sry now that i take a closer look
hes down like 1/2 pt (first glance thought it was ~1 full point+
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Useless
If you would read the material I linked to, you can see for yourself that a certified copy of Obama’s birth certificate exists and is authentic. Just because somebody files suit doesn’t mean anything.
I could file a petition against you for stealing my underpants if I wanted to. Would that mean that you stole my underpants? I sure hope not, you fucking weirdo.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions
That was a joke, you see
None of my underpants are missing.
by Black Francis on Oct 23, 2008 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions
And if they were...
…we know who would have taken them:
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah they are
u just got all in a hissyfit ’cause supposedly some people yelled at u while u were driving.
aww…
Do you really think...
…Obama wasn’t born in the U.S.?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 23, 2008 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I often wonder who the people are who belief this neo-con
trash when it surfaces. Now I know … and should have known.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions
and you know what?
9/11 was an inside job!
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
Great source
obamacrimes.com. No doubt fair and balanced.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions
i think worldnetdaily
is their source too.
you have wingnut sites using each other as sources, but they are run by the same guy. it would be like keith olbmermann saying, “according to rachal maddow John McCain kills orphans”
and then rachal maddow saying, “according to keith olbermann John McCain kills orphans”
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
Speaking of Olbermann
he went off last night during his story on O’Reily getting a new deal that both he and Maddow beat O’Reily in the ratings for this last period. I haven’t seen this anywhere other than him reporting it.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions
they beat them
in the 24-35 year old demo (i think)
not total viewers. but FNC’s ratings have been going down for the past year plus while msnbc has been going up. maddow has doubled her ratings.
http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/ratings/
^^updates cables news ratings almost daily. the night he was talking about was tuesday.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
They should give or not give
$10 million/yr contracts based on one night’s ratings? Was that Olbermann’s contention?
by brettgardner on Oct 23, 2008 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions
don't take anything he says seriously
i mean he did take a BIG PAY RAISE even while nbc had massive layoffs (though w/o him msnbc would have lower ratings than cspan2)
and he takes any chance he can at jabbing oreilly. but the contract came right at the same time when oreilly got beat in that demo for the first time ever. while his ratings have been slipping and keith’s have been going up.
hell no fox shouldn’t let oreilly walk. he’s their cornerstone.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
i should add
that oreilly and hannity rub cnn and msnbc’s noses in their lower ratings all the time.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
fuck msnbc
its a shitty network
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 23, 2008 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions
As is
Fox
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
heh
fuck MSM?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 24, 2008 7:41 AM CDT up reply actions
I think hardball w/ Chris Matthews is an excellent look at politics
Morning Joe, former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough’s show, is also very good.
Have you seen either of them, and, if not, what do you base their “shittiness” on?
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions
just meant in general
more towards MSM
but then again i watch some of fox’s shows (really just listen to fox news sunday, which isnt a bad show)
o’reilly’s radio show is pretty good. i used to like hannity like 6+ years ago when he was actually not a fucking nutcase.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 24, 2008 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, if you truly are interested in politics, you should check those shows out
Recent studies showed that MSNBC had 27% of their coverage as political, compared to 13% and 12% for Fox and CNN. And 100% of MSNBC primetime is political.
Now, is Keith Olbermann a bigass liberal? Hell yes. And his show is pretty one-sided. So skip him. You could probably skip Rachel Maddow, too, although that show is so new I haven’t seen it but once or twice.
But Matthews and David Gregory (who replaced Tucker Carlson, definitely not a big ol scary lefty), as well as Morning Joe Scarborough (neo-con, but not a hard core one), have a really good, distinguished, diverse group of commentators. Unlike OReilly and Hannitty and Hume, who have a bunch of conservatives and some popdick, third-rate nobody who “represents” the left wing POV. For example, I’d bet you’ll catch more of or an equal amount of the National Review crowd on Matthews, Gregory, and Joe as you would on Fox.
It sounds like you made up your mind about a network you never even watched.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
realize i have become very unhappy with the majority of the MSM
personally, now i read most of my news online + listen to fox news sunday (they do a podcast)
thast about all that i do/listen to
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions
It is the 25-54 demographic
He has frequently beat OReilly in that demo. Of course, OReilly pretty much beats everybody overall. He got the geriatric set on lockdown.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
That's a lot of bullshit
I can scan a document that looks as clean as Obama’s depending on what JPEG compression I use. This isn’t 1991; things have come a long way. Take that article to photo.net where people know their shit, and they will rip it to pieces.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 7:13 AM CDT up reply actions
as a former texas resident
i must ask, does noriega have any chance against cornyn? i really dislike cornyn.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
In a word "No"
Rasmussen has Cornyn up by 15 points.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions
What's funny
Is that Cornyn is extremely unpopular, but I guess people trust the devil they know.
by brettgardner on Oct 23, 2008 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
He came out with all those hokey soft-spoken commercials
where he’s dressed up in full Cowboy high fashion. I suppose that works for some. I don’t really know his story, but I’ve never seen him on the hill proudly donning his XXXXX black felt.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 23, 2008 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
Those are the shittiest ads ever. He was a judge, not a cowboy.
by brettgardner on Oct 23, 2008 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Precisely.
My dad, for example, hates his guts. But he doesn’t know anything about Noriega, so he’s just not going to vote on that one.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
hell no
The Democratic Party in Texas hasn’t won statewide in years. Noriega doesn’t have the money to fight Cornyn and the DNC has obviously not given him much help, either. There are efforts underway to rebuild the party here but they’re starting at the bottom; it will be a while before they can mount a serious challenge in a big race.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 7:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Rebuilding the party
If the Dems every do rebuild in Texas, I’m not sure that it won’t still be the same people winning the elections. Remember back in the 90s when just about every Dem switch parties? Phil Gramm, Ralph Hall, Carol Keeton-Strayhorn-Rylander-McClellan-Jones-Smith … there were others, just can’t remember. Doggett stayed true to the party but had to move into a liberal district to get elected.
Texas politicians seem to bandwagon like no other.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 24, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
No doubt...
…there will be some of that if the Democrats make some gains, but not before.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
John Connolly was the forerunner
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
re: ralph hall
evidently he was one of the ppl the republican specifically drew district lines so there was no way he could win
…then he flipped parties right after that and won anyway
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions
I voted today
Gotta love early voting.
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
"Football is like having a fling once a week. Baseball is a relationship." - oc
by The Best Micah on Oct 23, 2008 11:29 PM CDT reply actions
Next season on "Dancing with the Stars"

I didn’t create this. I got it in an e-mail and I just thought I’d add some entertainment value to this thread :)
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
"Football is like having a fling once a week. Baseball is a relationship." - oc
by The Best Micah on Oct 23, 2008 11:33 PM CDT reply actions
Smoke and mirrors?
"Everyone knows that Barack Obama has created the biggest money-machine of any politician in American history. But it is becoming increasingly evident that Obama’s money-machine is largely fraudulent and therefore criminal. One can imagine a world in which newspaper reporters think it’s a serious matter when a Presidential candidate tries to buy an election with illegal and fraudulent contributions. That, of course, is not the world that we live in. Have you seen Sarah Palin’s shoes?"
"As the Powerline reader has noted, if "John Galt" of "Ayn Rand Lane" attempts a contribution at the McCain campaign, it gets rejected. Which is just as well. If the Republican candidate’s website were intentionally set up to facilitate fraudulent donations, it would be on the front page of The New York Times. But, as it’s King Barack the Spreader, we can rest assured the crack investigative units will be too preoccupied with Governor Palin’s shoes over the next two weeks." Mark Steyn
thats sounds bipartisan and even handed...
does your god believe in slander?
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
What's slanderous there?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
well..
…saying one candidate can accept fictitious, fraudulent, donor money and the other doesn’t or can’t is ridiculous.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
Ridiculous...
I agree. But the experiment has already been run. Obama’s website does accept donations from fictitious people. Obviously, if it’s true, it’s not slander.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
+1
Obviously, if it’s true, it’s not slander.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 24, 2008 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
sorry...
….instead of slander, how about derrogatory?… is your god derrogatory? does he believe in name calling? does he believe mccain should be president? is that better. i believe i used the wrong term so i conceded the point on that word, slander… but i won’t take gloating from you on this point… especially when i haven’t had a useful give and take with you on this board that didn’t end with you evading questions and quoting scripture.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 24, 2008 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, leaving God out of it...
is it okay to run a campaign where you specifically set up your credit card processing to accept fraudulent donations?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
well...
…is it acceptable to say that because there is a bias towards one candidate he is getting to do things the other can’t? which is what steyn is saying… i thought we were past grand conspiracy theories…
should the obama camp accept campaign donations from fictional characters? probably not. but who’s to say whats fictitous and whats real? could there possible be someone named michael mouse? is that ok, but mickey isn’t? honestly, where are we afraid this money is coming from?… you think Ahmadinejad is really bankrolling obama?… the whole arguement is dumb from the outset. worried about donations $200 at a time…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 24, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
The problem...
is that if you take off the default controls in credit card processing software, it now becomes possible to exceed the federal limits on campaign contributions.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Shouldn't the
FEC require the verification software to be turned on?
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
According to the reports...
they are debiting the “fake” accounts. You can try it yourself, if you’d like.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
I didn't continue
responding to you on the other thread b/c of your mocking and attacking tone. If you’d be willing to interact in a civil manner, then I’d be happy to give and take with you.
Can you imagine if white McCain supporters did this
To a black Obama supporter?
http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/news/17789356/detail.html
Think you might have seen it on a few front pages?
You're a little late
Someone posted this link earlier.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Lol,
the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy inventing the “truth” to help their cause? I’m shocked, shocked that the Goebbellesque right wing would do something like this.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
I'm Shocked!
Shocked! that a political worker would make up a story like this just to bring more race based politics into this.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Today might be the day...
i didn’t wanna make a whole new fanpost for this… but after the U.S. futures fell so far as to trip the all stop breaker last nite, today might be the day of the final big sell off, or it might be the day we see the djia drop more than 1000pts…
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/24/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008102406
basically, the thought is, everyone has finally had it with this market… hedgefunds are finally starting to pull the remainder of their funds out of equities and the global selloff, along with weak earning reports… for all those that said the “cascading crash” was over, its going to get worse before it gets better…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
Hedge funds...
You seem to not be understanding how they work. Hedge funds only settle redemptions at certain times… one of those times is just around the corner. So, indeed, there’s probably some selling pressure from large hedge fund holdings… but to term it “hedge funds are finally starting to pull the remainder of their funds” isn’t really accurate.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
i was trying to simplify...
so, when i post now on, should i just expect you to post right after?
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
I just get...
a little irritated at armchair analysts repeating what they’ve read somewhere. It contributes to herd mentality and panic.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
As if...
…that’s not what’s already happening.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions
How come those in the security industry
don’t get as wound up about herd mentality that is inflating the balloon and creates the speculative bubble in the first place, and only worry about the herd mentality that pops the bubble?
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
They do.
I never said otherwise.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Sure they do
that’s why they have circuit breakers in place for when prices go up too fast, and the prevent long selling on stocks that go up too fast. Oh wait, they don’t. They just prevent short selling.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Are you referring to the emergency order...
of the SEC from several weeks ago? It expired.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
no...
…he’s refering to the “emergency ciruit breaker” that is in place to stop all orders when the djia breaks a certain percentage… its in place to stop a free fall… like last nite, all orders were placed on hold when the market essentially hit the -6% mark…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
No he's not.
Or, at least, I don’t think he is. He’s specifically referring to short selling.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
the short selling list...
…was mainly on financials, and it did expire last week… but the “circuit breaker” is in place for whole market moves…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
He said:
“Oh wait, they don’t. They just prevent short selling.”
That would seem to be talking about the emergency order.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Not picking nits.
That’s what he said.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
RIF
that’s why they have circuit breakers in place for when prices go up too fast,
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
If you're talking about...
Halting the market in the event of large declines, vs. not on large increases, I’m curious as to what you think the policy should be?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
You should have symmetrical stops
on both upside and downside. Building bubbles is probably far more dangerous to the market longterm than popping them. Either that, or have no stops at all.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
No stops at all...
is where I would go.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
could you reconscile...
…a statement about no stops and the statement below that the markets aren’t rational or effecient? seems like stops would help ineffecient and emotional markets…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
Because I think...
as a free society you have to live with inefficiencies, irrational behavior, and, yes, unfairness.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
yeah...
…the hands off approach has worked really well for us…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
Regulation
doesn’t work, either.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Little regulation
Hasn’t that approach proved rather damaging? It seems pretty obvious that even the most intelligent traders will do stupid things as emotion overcomes any sense of logic or urge to act in their own long term self interest. With no regulation you’re setting up the economy for a series of booms and busts aren’t you?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
That would be true...
if there hadn’t been any regulatory participation in what’s happened. But there was. The regulators fall victim to the same emotions the traders fall victim to.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
So
no matter what, regulation or no, we’re just fucked? I say aim higher and keep trying for a balance of regulation and freedom of markets.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
To a certain extent...
yes, “we’re fucked” either way. Regulation isn’t going to solve all problems. Neither is an unfettered market. Both have their problems.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Most traders
will do what it takes to make their bonuses.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
and i think this is where...
…we disagree, because i don’t trust any person out for profit to always do the right thing. and with the interconnectivity of our economy, thats lethal.
creating new vehicles and selling them without a full understanding of how they work or their true value has shown itself to be a double edged sword…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 24, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
oh sweet baby jesus...
… note to everyone: don’t ’ef with ben when the dow is down 400 pts, he tends to be cranky…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
Look at the bright side
Thousands of people will get off work early today after it falls 1100 points, and they’ll no doubt spend lots of money on domestic alcohol. That should improve things a bit.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions
I think...
there’s going to be significant buying pressure. Early morning selloffs often lose steam as people start picking up bargains. But, I’m not a psychic.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Yeah
But if the market were rational you have to admit that a lot of this would not be taking place. SELL SELL SELL! Later on today or perhaps on Monday, some of the very same damn people will say, “hey, these stocks are CHEAP let’s buy some!”. It makes sense in some ways but it’s bizarre at the very same time. If you can’t admit that then maybe you’re too close to it.
I mean, the British GDP falls and markets around the world go nuts. Did anyone expect the British economy to grow? Why should such news set off this sudden selling spree?
My lay opinion: Markets are usually rational in good economic times (with some exceptions) and totally fucking emotional in bad times. That’s not 100 percent true across the board with every trader and every stock, but on the whole? It’s mass insanity.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions
"dogs and cats living together! mass hysteria!"
quote, anybody?
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
See...
that’s the problem…
The markets aren’t rational. I’ve had discussions with Adam about this, who’s a staunch efficient markets guy, and it just really isn’t true. That’s why you should follow efficient markets principles for your core portfolio, but utilize any information advantage you have for your risk capital.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Communication Problem
Evidently I’m confused. I seem to remember you and I going round and round about this before and disagreeing about it.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't remember that.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
x
Apparently it was someone else, then. I’m good at remembering arguments but not good about remembering who made them.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions
arrmchair analysts...
….like…uh……you?
"Jesus was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor"
I work in the industry.
So I’m an officechair analyst.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
dude... i work for a bank...
is that industry enough for you?
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
No
You could be Fed Chair and STILL not know as much as Ben does!
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions
No
You see, anyone who disagrees with him is an armchair analyst. You just have to agree, and you’ll be just fine.
by brettgardner on Oct 24, 2008 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah...
Brett’s half a semester in law school makes him a legal expert. Don’t forget that he also worked on Capitol Hill, has a masters, and whatever else he can throw onto his c.v.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Seems only fair
since you answering the phone at TDAmeritrade makes you an expert in markets.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
More conversant...
and knowledgeable in the topic than most here, I’d say. The same as Brian Thomas knows more about cruise missiles than the rest of us.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Not me.
I’ll take BT on missile knowledge any day of the week.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Ludwig and I
Share a birthday. So I have that on you.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
No peak
Just one long plateau of greatness. :)
Actually the ensuing track on that album is one of my favorites, Dear Prudence.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Dear Prudence, While My Guitar Gently Weeps, Here Comes the Sun
Top 3.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
I love the White Album
But I can’t stand USSR. Despise it. Makes me think Ringo was more important to that band than people realize. (coincidentally, Don’t Pass Me By is one of my favorites)
Dude
that’s a terrible song. I’d agree that Ringo was important, and underrated a bit, but that song sucks.
His subtle fills are gold on tunes like A Day in the Life and Strawberry Fields. Rain is my favorite track for Ringo, though. They recorded the bass and drums at breakneck speed, then the vocals slowly.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Here is why I like the song
I put myself into the moment of 1968 Beatles. John is realizing his artistic potential and both he and Paul are experimenting with new stuff on their own. George has finally found the sound that works for him and is . So t
I can imagine Ringo saying “I want a song in there too”. Its such a shocker of a song in an album whose theme is that there is no theme. Probably the track least representative of the Beatles on the album, yet so quintessential Beatlesesque at the same time.
Imagine being a teenager opening up the White Album for the first time and hearing that song. Its just a key part of the picture, to me.
If that doesn’t make sense, I’m sorry. I still appreciate the song though.
Yeah, but
Then I’d listen to “Sexy Sadie”, “Martha My Dear”, “I Will” or “Blackbird” and get over that and “Piggies” pretty damn quick.
by brettgardner on Oct 24, 2008 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
That one's a laugher
Couldn’t they at least have changed it to “Girls”?
My least favorite cover, bar none, is Mr. Moonlight.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I think
“To Know Her (Him) is To Love Her (Him)” is a pretty bad cover that it seems they only played to get in nice with Decca.
by brettgardner on Oct 24, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
The overall sound
on that album is great as a rep of the British beat band style, but some clunker songs on there.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
We need
An OT music thread. It’s Friday….
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
I think
I’m one of the few that feels their strongest period was the rawness of their Silver Beetles/Hamburg era.
by brettgardner on Oct 24, 2008 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I enjoy that sound
much more than I used to. The raw energy and the direct connection with the American influences is great.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
i think john said that was his favorite era
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
my beatles guiltyt pleasure
maxwell’s silver hammer. the idea of nobody liking the song, everybody hating everybody but, through it all, john mooning paul to make him laugh is awesome to me.
but i like everything about it. subject matter, zaniness, efforts to make it a single.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Yep.
But through all the bullshit, I still know more about the law than you do. That’s the pillow I sleep on at night.
by brettgardner on Oct 24, 2008 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Did you ever see Boiler Room?
That’s Ben.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
I'd probably get paid more...
if that’s what I did.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Hah.
So I guess we’re all relegated to only speaking about what matters which are in our “field”? So I’m qualified to talk about college and law school, you’re qualified to talk about securities, and we’re both completely unqualified to talk about baseball or any other sport.
Gotcha. The brainpower on this guy is outstanding. Off the charts. I wonder if he’s still qualified to condescendingly sneer about my superior knowledge of the law to his decade-long foray into the complexities of being a gofer for a real attorney. At least the prodigal son has come home now, and we’re all blessed with his substantial knowledge of the securities industry.
by brettgardner on Oct 24, 2008 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions
and i get worn out on...
… who reserve condemnation about some things but reserve the right to say its different when they do the same… but everyone has their pet peeves i guess…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
Why stocks will remain crazy volatile until the election
I’m not going to blame the market entirely on Obama’s impending win (it is going to recover regardless), but here is why it does affect it.
People say his capital gains tax raise doesn’t matter, since no one has cap gains now. But that is a weak argument. Because it directly affects people’s incentive to invest TODAY.
Capital gains taxes basically dampen upside potential to an investment. Yes the market is risky now, but its also really cheap – it is easy to believe that I could easily make 30% the next year by investing today. But that 30% profit will be taxed, so must be discounted. Now, if McCain wins, I discount it to, what, about 25% (I’m not Ben, so I’m no expert here :). But if Obama wins, I have to discount the upside potential to about 22%.
Now that doesn’t seem like a big deal, but it is in risk management. The risk in the market is so huge (lets say 50) that a 25 max return may be a smart investment, but a 22% max return wouldn’t be. If Obama wins, it is actually smarter to wait until the market stabilizes (the risk to the market decreases) and then invest. Sure – this will lower your potential max return – but the risk of a stable market is considerably more palatable.
So Obama’s threatened Cap Gains tax isn’t going to always hold the market down. It will only hold the market down while it is really volatile (incidentally, same with housing purchases – also affected by cap gains). Once the market stabilizes, it should have little effect. But it does have an effect of causing chaos right before the election. Chaos that helps Obama.
Kind of a genius move, actually.
If it were a rational market
folks would be buying on the chance of an Obama victory. After all, the Market has consistently done better for Dems than Repubs since WW2.
Certainly GWB isn’t going to help matters being the first president since the War to have a declining Dow on his watch. Every other President has left office with a higher Dow than when he took office, but W will interrupt that 60+ year streak.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Eh
The tech bubble crashed just after Clinton left office; and the housing bubble crashed just before Bush left office. Both were guilty of letting bubbles grow – Clinton was just lucky that he left office before his burst. (Unless you think the technology bubble of 1998-2001 was legitimate, and that Bush ruined it somehow? But you’d probably agree otherwise)
Maybe there are some policy differences that cause that sort of trend, but I would think most big investors are more specific than R/D when choosing their investments.
Bush
actively pumped his bubble by using deficits to pump the economy, and talking the wonders of the “ownership society”. Had Bush actively worked to minimize the deficit, by either cutting spending or raising taxes, he probably could have popped the housing bubble 3 years ago, with much less damage to the economy.
Occasional recessions aren’t the worst things in the world. They keep the downside risk fresh in buyers and sellers minds.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
I'm not saying Bush isn't partially to blame
Heck, One could easily blame Greenspan on both bubbles – and he was around for Clinton’s as well.
I don’t really think that presidential policies have that much to do with stock prices in the long-term (barring disastrous economic policies). My original point was a short term observation about how fear of a capital gains raise would affect investment timing.
I fully expect the market to rise 30-50% in the next four years, regardless of whoever wins. And we all know that they’ll be touting that as why we should re-elect them in 2012.
I find it hard to believe that it's a significant factor
The markets are just balls out insane right now, period.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
You don't think...
investors, and particularly institutional investors, price in factors like the potential capital gains rate?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
gagreed
see we can get along.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 24, 2008 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm sure they do
I’m just saying it’s not the biggest thing going right now.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I disagree to an extent
Hedge funds move markets. You don’t see massive volatility like this from individual investors.
Now, I don’t think anyone here can pinpoint exactly WHY people are selling.
But, those guys managing billions of dollars in assets certainly factor in that sort of thing in every trade they make.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 24, 2008 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Obviously it isn't the only factor
There is of course a lot going on.
But you don’t think that some of the volatility is due to the election? With one candidate openly campaigning that he is going to raise taxes on investments? Of course that is a HUGE influence on the market right now. Its not the cause, but any administration change is a huge level of added uncertainty – much less one that represents major philosophical shifts (whether good or bad – whatever. Its still unknown)
And specifically, I’m talking about how a potential capital gains tax raise is a disincentive to invest in a risky market, not a factor that causes the market to be risky. Though I guess I am arguing why such a threat can keep the market in its turmoil longer. This is a lot more specific an argument than “Investors are scared of Obama’s scary socialist policies!!!!!!!!!”
The way I see it
Well, I don’t really agree with Obama’s plans to increase the capital gains tax. I don’t agree with him on everything…just making that clear to everyone. But at the same time I don’t think it’s much of a disincentive to invest. The market itself is a disincentive right now, and once it hits bottom it will be arguably the absolute best place to put whatever money you have left whether or not the capital gains rate is increased. I think the all the major indexes will, someday, return to their previous levels. Most people do, I think. So no matter what the rate is the stock market will beat everything else to hell. What alternative do they have, really?
With so many other shaky fundamentals I just don’t think that’s on people’s minds right now. Maybe it is…I don’t know.
What I do know is that I took all my money out of the market a couple of years ago and starting investing in my own business. If it goes under I’m obviously fucked. But I actually think I will benefit through all this, and by the time stocks have bottomed out I should have some money to invest again. That’s why I’m not particularly fond of the capital gains tax increase, but it’s not going to stop me from buying in low. I still have faith in American business.
But, anyway, I’m not dismissing that it has some effect. There are far more ominous things going on that the looming spectre of a capital gains tax hike.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Fair enough
We’re not really that far off. I agree the market itself if the big disincentive. My argument is just that a cap gains tax raise has the effect of dampening what little incentive there currently is in the market. I’m definitely not saying it is causing the problem (though I think the election in general adds just enough uncertainty to an already unstable system to mess things up). But I also disagree with the argument that it has no effect at all.
Interestingly...
Speculation in US News and World Report about this very thing…
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
If you don't put it into a capital gains instrument
you can put it into an income instrument and get taxed even higher. Or you can spend it.
I don’t see it making a big impact.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Another Bushie type for Obama
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081024/ap_en_ot/mcclellan_obama
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
lol
yea
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 24, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Best Job Markets for coming months/years
Pimping
Repossession/Recovery
Liquor stores, whiskey producers
Bookmaking /Casinos
Auctioneers
Bankruptcy Attorneys
Weapons manufacturers
Organized Crime
Arson investigators
hmm
pimping but no whoring?
so there is a lack of middle management in prostitution… who knew?
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 24, 2008 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions
The list was hastily put together
You are encouraged to add your own. I think the pimps will benefit more than the prostitutes, though.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions
never underestimate...
the need for skilled labor.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
by ivysafety39 on Oct 24, 2008 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions
can you guys read this
I’m interested in what ya’ll think…
http://market-ticker.org/archives/623-The-Stark-Choice-Now-Facing-America.html
by corbsclinton on Oct 24, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Sounds like craziness...
to me.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
yeah
I thought it was weird too but there were a few things in there that i hadn’t seen or hear before. I thought the part about how each time the government bails out a corporation we are privatizing the debt and that works against us when we are trying to unfreeze the credit markets. Foreign money goes into guaranteed gov’t securities instead of flowing into companies
by corbsclinton on Oct 24, 2008 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions
possibly...
but I sure as heck don’t think we have hit bottom yet and anyone close to retiring right now lives in fear that all their planning went to crap and they aren’t going to be living the same life after retirement they thought they were 6 months ago. If we haven’t seen the worst, I’d hate to see it. My 401(k) was down 42% YTD yesterday. Luckily, I’m only 30 and not 65-70 and need to start drawing on it while its down.
by corbsclinton on Oct 24, 2008 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
I think it's very possible
that the market drops more, but this guy makes it seem like there is some vast conspiracy afoot. The only surprise was he didn’t hawk his own financial newsletter or something as the way out.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
If someone...
is close to retiring right now and isn’t mostly in fixed income instruments, they deserve the reap what they’ve sown.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Spoken like a true "money manager"
If you weren’t smart enough to use my services than I hope you have a shitty retirement that ends in a long, painful death.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 24, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
You don't have...
to have a money manager or RIA to understand that as your time horizon gets shorter, you need to reassess your risk tolerance.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Seemed like a really crass statement
Maybe I took it the wrong way.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 24, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Is it a crass statement...
to say that people that buy houses they can’t afford deserve to get foreclosed on? Or that people that run up large credit card debt deserve what they get?
Making poor investment decisions is no different than the dumb financial decisions other people make.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
thats akin to saying...
… people that don’t know what to do with money don’t deserve it to start with…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
No...
it’s akin to saying that in a free society, people are free to do with their money what they wish, even if their decisions are extremely foolhardy.
Modern portfolio theory isn’t some cloistered and secretive concept.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Considering that retirement can be
a 40-50 year period for some folks, I doubt a lot of the better off folks are “mostly” in fixed income. Folks probably need a fair bit of equity still with the long retirement times. I know quite a few folks who are retired in their 40s and 50s.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
And...
they are most likely in a far greater percentage of fixed income securities than they were pre-retirement. Long retirement ages does not change optimum equity percentages… in fact, I would think that an extremely long retirement would make larger equity percentages a poor choice.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
economy crashes
and cheap hookers are a dime a dozen. But good pimping is a skill fine tuned over years of practice.
I'd say...
Phillip Morris and Budweiser. Sin stocks haven’t taken the same kind of beating, that’s for sure.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
damn
90% wow
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 24, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
heres all i have to say regarding the market
(specifically the housing/real estate market)
if you have the money, how is a hell of a great time to invest.
evidently same w/ some stocks, but i dont know much of anything about that
but housing/real estate…damn. prices so low (or going so low) its nuts
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
More...
in support of divided government…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_shlaes&sid=ajqlZ8OwW6rY
Split power averages 9% positive return on the market, unified White House and Congress averages 8% negative return.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
I believe it.
I do think we are better off with Dem presidencies and Rep legislatures though. I think the purse strings really close up there.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
That's something I don't doubt
However, I will leave it for Republicans to get themselves elected on their merits instead of switching sides in order to get divided government. I’m all for a strong GOP that makes sense. They’re just a little off the rails right now and will be back.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh NOW trhe media decides to cover this story
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27350530/
Not one word about it in a single mainstream media source anywhere on earth, UNTIL it turns out she may be lying.
In fact I knew they would start covering it only when it turned out she might be lying. Sure enough I flip over to MSNBC and there it is. But it was never on MSNBC when it looked real.
Now they will use it to attack McCain more. “Why, look at his crazy supporters!” The story will be plastered all over the media now.
It still could be real, then it will disappear again. The media will cover it up.
That is
If the liberal bloggers dont send somebody to firebomb her house and kill her, first..
I would sleep with one eye open if I was her..
Brian Thomas?
Have you helped the liberal bloggers look up her adress, place of employment, and kids schools yet? So you can attack them?
Just wondering.
Anybody familiar with the liberal hate blogs
Knows exactly what I’m talking about too.
That’s exactly what they’re doing..
As opposed
to the Conservative hate blogs and hate radios that spawn pychos like you, Longhorn, and that bimbo?
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Heh. Big ol liberalass hate-mongering me
It always cracks me up when your macaca-hating ass singles me out as the arch-liberal.
Have I just done a better job of getting under your skin?
I’m a big social liberal, yes. I’m also about to leave the house to pick up my new toy, a reasonable facsimile of this:
http://www.gunbroker.com/auction/ViewItem.asp?Item=114061468
Hungarian AKs are the best, FYI. Chinese are pretty good, too. Or so my lib friends tell me.
I’m really baffled, though, as to why you chose a story that completely contradicts your mind numbingly repetitive central premise.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
assualt weapons
I think it would be cool to have one, but I kind of wish the ban were still in effect. I live right across the street from the Dallas Police HQ and a a few cops live in my building. I was talking to one in the elevator the other day and he said they’ve been seeing a lot more AK’s and AR15 type weapons in the last few years on drug busts (I think he must be on SWAT but I don’t know). The cops really don’t like it. Their body armor apparently isn’t made to withstand 7.62 rounds, and they really hate hi capacity mags for obvious reasons.
But I’m far from anti-gun. I carry a model 1911 .45 and it’s a pretty serious handgun.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Their body armor isn't made to withstand any carbine rounds
I don’t really get what the point of banning hi-cap magazines does. It is a feel good, do-nothing provision.
The basic premise is, as best as I can tell, that a criminal, a guy who has already decided to commit felonies and violent crimes and the like, is gonna stop and say “Van Damn, I wish I could take my Bushmaster AR-15 with the 75 rd drum on this here bank job/home invasion, but the law do be the law. Oh’s well. I’ll just go w/ the .357, it being legal in all.”
It’s ridiculous.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I understand that, but here's how I and probably the cops look at it
1. These things being legal means more are being produced. I went to a gun show in June and the place was full of assault weapons. No surprise.
2. More people buy them, then. Some may be drug dealers but have clean records so far. Some may be buying them for someone else. Or maybe they don’t even check backgrounds on them…are they treated like a regular rifle or what? Either way, they’re getting bought.
3. Once the guns are loose, guns get stolen. This is actually a big problem in home burglary.
Either way, the more that are out there, the more criminals will have them. They just permeate.
Banning high capacity magazines would make them scarce and expensive. If I were a SWAT guy trying to raid a house and the guys inside had hicap mags, I’d be a lot more worried. Obviously they can fire more rounds before having to stop to reload which isn’t a good thing for a violent criminal to be able to do. I know if someone were shooting at me I’d rather them not have so many goddamn bullets, haha.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions
thats awesome re: 1911
ive always wanted to shoot one
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions
Brady Ban had a sunset clause.
Ended in 2004.
But maybe you think it is automatic? It isn’t, although contrary to what most people think, there are instances where it is legal for a private citizen to own full auto. It has to have a sear, which is what the ATF considers to be the actual gun, built before 1986. Most weapon laws have had grandfather clauses built in.
The ATF considers that weapon a pistol. If I put a stock on it, it would be considered a short barreled rifle, which requires a 200$ tax stamp and lots of paperwork hoop jumping. Minimum legal length on a rifle is 16 inches. That pistol is 10.
But to answer your question, a private citizen cannot go out and buy an automatic AK. In many states, there are magazine restrictions, CA being the most restrictive. But in about 40 states, it is perfectly legal to buy a semi-auto AK or AR-15 or the like, and have a big fat 100 rd beta c-mag on it.
Those who would sacrifice liberty for safety deserve neither.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 24, 2008 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions
This was on
CNN for sure last night, but some of the facts were wrong, mostly because she has changed her story a few times now and nobody really knows the truth. In fact, I would venture that if it didn’t turn up fast enough in Sharky Time, its because unlike Drudge (who had it in bold with the word ‘SHOCKER!!’ before he had any facts) maybe they wanted to get the story straight before trying to incite an already divided and edgy nation. Maybe.
Gasp
Research the story thoroughly before reporting? Blasphemous!
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
I challenge you
Or anyone else to find a story by the media with a straight up bias. I’m sure your excuse that they don’t bother to report it at all. Riiiiight.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Yeah lol
Getting their story straight, because thats what the liberal media is know for.
Downt wotry about Bill Ayers, heres another report about how much the GOP spent on Sarah Palins wardrobe! Thats the real issue facing our nation!
If they had
posted the story before they got some actual facts, you would accuse them of trying to smear an innocent Republican. They delay to get some semblence of facts and you accuse them of trying to delay making Obama look bad. They are damned if they do, damned if they don’t with you.
x
But it was never on MSNBC when it looked real.
It never looked real to realistic, logical people. Had hoax written all over it from the time it was first reported.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 24, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
SHE ADMITTED SHE LIED
Oh noes, who is Sharky going to rail about now?
http://kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html
Shocking
No one could have guessed that at the time.
Well, except for Drudge on those who jumped on the story to do the “look how awful the left is” bit…
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
yep, shocking!
The only question left to ask is if the McCain campaign was involved in this scam. Seemed too good to be true for the GOP, In McCain’s “alamo” Penn. , a young white female mccain staffer is attacked and robbed by a large black man who carves a B in her face after seeing her mccain sticker. Can we call him Joe the Mugger?
"Jesus was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor"
Shocking
that she made up the attacker to be black. I wonder what she was trying to accomplish?
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Doesn't it seem odd that she chose a "B"?
Seems like an “O” would have both made it easier to deface herself and made the whole thing a little more believable.
She also might have wanted to draw blood if she is going to claim that he used a knife. The picture makes it look like he whipped out his flat waiter.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 24, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
McCain Camp
…not involved. I don’t think they’d go this low, and if they would, I think they’re probably smart enough to make the “B” go in the right direction. She freelanced this one.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, I'm sure she did
and after seeing folks like Longhorn and Sharky, it’s not surprising that McCain could have unbalanced followers capable of this.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
This Post
Was a pretty good discussion, really, until the Shark surfaced. Hopefully he won’t behead himself and leave a “Liberal blogger did it” note.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't forget
The slanderous accusation made towards me yesterday.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
What did he say
I’m not going to wade through this whole thing.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Re: Pittsburgh Volunteer
but uberlibs like BZA tend to shrug stuff like that off because it’s the norm of their ilk. He must be use to it by now…
That’s our Longhorn!
Because, you know, I’m always talking about how much I love violence against women!
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Hm.
“…the norm of their ilk”? What a strange sounding phrase. I may have to use that somewhere.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
This is an epic fail for a number of people.
Sharky, Longhorn, this Ashley Todd girl, and (kind of by default, through no fault of his own) John McCain. Race-baiting isn’t going to go over well.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
How is...
John McCain race-baiting?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Like I said, by default.
I should have said “by association,” the point being that because she is a McCain volunteer, that sentiment is going to reflect back on him.
That’s not fair, obviously, but it’s the way it works.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
There is going to be a spin cycle
where folks who don’t officially work for the Obama campaign pin it on McCain. Part of the usual Political tomfoolery.
Its kind of like the Football coach being responsible for the boosters they have zero control over.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
no offense
but if anyon eis race baiting it was obama with his “dont look like them people on the dollar bills” and “funny sounding name”
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Has any Republican
brought up race in this campaign?
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
It depends
Do you consider the obsessing on Obama’s middle name bringing up race?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions
come on
o’reilly hastn done that
nor have i
now for the rest of the guys out there (nutcases, yes they probably have)
but dont act like there arent nutcases on your side either…
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
How about...
all the birth certificate crap.
Or the “that guy” comment in the one debate. (I didn’t think much of it but some did)
Look, you’re right, there are nutcases on both sides. However let’s not think that race isn’t an issue in the election because it is. Obviously the media has to be careful about it though.
I wonder how many people thought Powell endorsed Obama because he’s black?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Rush
I wonder how many people thought Powell endorsed Obama because he’s black?
Limbaugh came right out and said it the day after. And since Rush said it, probably at least 30-40% of the Republican base believes it.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 25, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Limbaugh came right out and said it the day after. And since Rush said it, probably at least 30-40% of the Republican base believes it.
your way smarter than to seriously think that
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions
30-40% of the republican base
I would peg limbaugh’s following as around 30. Maybe fluctuates closer to 20 on occasion. But 20% is absolutely the low number. His listening audience alone accounts for that (13.5M). 126M cast votes in 2004, and about 40% (in a good month) are republican.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
My side?
I’m a libertarian-right-leaning moderate. I’ve given up trying to figure out who is on “my side.”
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm sure Sharky and those who also regurgitate freeper talking points
believe she was bullied into a false confession or some such bullshit.
Looks like...
one of your favorites, Michelle Malkin, said early on it was likely bogus…
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/23/why-that-mccain-volunteers-mutilation-story-smells-awfully-weird/
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
More news on the Caribou Barbie front
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081024/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_money
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
Ask Adam...
about the image consultant hired to work on a jury case when he was still a legal assistant.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
headsmackingly stupid
Spending this much for make up is obviously stupid, but primarily it’s offensively stupid that they would allow expenditures like thisand the $150,000 for clothes to show up on the expense reports. They are selling her as the anti-elitist, working mom, hockey mom, and this completely undercuts that argument. Kind of like John Edwards campaigning as savior of the poor when he’s getting $400 hair cuts. Actually, this is quite a bit worse than that.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
You don't vote
Because you’re 12. Go away.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Yes
But yours wasn’t funny.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
heh
+1
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 24, 2008 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Dousche
Is that German feminine hygiene?
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 24, 2008 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
ahh steal home shows up
dude…really? …REALLY?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions
The Republicans are really losing their shit
It’s almost sad to witness, really. If this keeps up Obama is going to win by double digits and the D’s will get over 60 seats in the Senate.
"You’re the only here who contributes schtick only." - brettgardner
I don't think the Senate thing will happen
It could, but it’s not likely. I think they’ll end up gaining a bunch but not that many. 57, 58 seats most likely.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Aaaaaggghhh!!!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122480907545265123.html?mod=todays_us_opinion
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Good old liberalism
This is what happens when the Republicans get corrupt and fall apart. The Democrats can get away with bad policies that they have been trying to do for 40 years. Can’t blame them – the Republicans would do the same thing if they controlled the White House and near-filibuster proof majorities in Congress.
Now, if the Republicans had any guts at all, they’d take the 41 or so left in the Senate and block stuff like this. But they don’t.
however
as for this exact policy, it gets pretty close to admitting that Social Security is a TAX and not an investment. I fully consider that 6.2% out of my paycheck gone, just as if it said “Welfare tax”. I’m being taxed to supplement old people’s retirement.
As a tax, I see no reason for it to be ignored in tax rebates. That pimply 19 year old kid only paying SS tax won’t see any of that social security money anyway. So he too should get a rebate from his old people tax.
Can't get serious about fixing...
social security, because the old people are the only ones that reliably vote.
They should means-test the shit out of it.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Sooner or later,
folks will admit that SS is a welfare program and not a retirement program. That’ll be the first step in getting benefis ultimately reduced.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
It should be a welfare program...
but if they insist on the Ponzi scheme idea of FICA taxes funding current expenditures, they should means test it and stop pretending that at some point in the future the program is going to magically become solvent.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Problem with reducing benefits
People live on that money, like it or not. For those with poor families who can’t help them out there would have to be another welfare program for the old. Americans aren’t going to tolerate old people going hungry and living without heat any more than they already are. For those old folks who have middle class children to help support them, it will take money away from their grandchildren’s college savings and the like.
Everything has a cost.
I would like to see means testing and reform of SSD, which is a huge government program that’s regularly defrauded and taken advantage of.
Personally it would suck to see the retirement age go up. My mom’s waiting to retire and has some health problems. If her benefits are delayed or reduced guess who’s going to have to support her? Me. Is it my fault she can’t manage her finances? No. It’s not the taxpayers’ either and I realize that.
by Black Francis on Oct 24, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I think if there's an adjustment in the age or benefits...
That there should be a healthy grandfather clause on it. Maybe something where people retiring in 10 years or more will have the reduced benefits, at least giving them some possibility of gaining supplemental income in that time, while the people within 10 years or already retired will not see any decrease.
Not conforming to the official narrative...
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/sarah-palin-b-3.html
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Ok...
Obama has this thing in the bag, and Biden can stick his foot in his mouth from time to time (as he did a couple days ago). I think this is a smart move. All Obama has to do in the next 11 days is avoid the huge blunder.
Palin on the other hand will continue to be the attack dog and continue to prove how incapable she is of the position she was chosen for.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Palin
You know, if she spends the next 4 years getting acquainted with major policy points she could be a formidable candidate in 2012 or 2016. The neo-cons and religious right will gleefully blame McCain for losing the election and support her. Biden is definitely not a threat to win the nomination.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I don't see it...
I can’t see Palin ever being a realistic candidate for president.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Well...
you’re not exactly her target audience.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
independents are
and i don’t see how independents will feel any sort of comfort with her.
maybe in 12 years when we’re not in an economic crisis anymore will we be willing to let stupidity back into the white house
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
I wouldn't say she's stupid.
But, even if she were, I wouldn’t see how it would matter, unless we expect the president to micromanage the entire executive branch. The president is a politician, not a clockmaker.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
i wouldn't say she's stupid either
stupid like a fox seems like an apt comeback
but she certainly gives off that quality. and the actual qualifications for president differ with the qualities that people look for in a president
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
But you are, correct?
Would you vote for her?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
If the Dems controlled Congress.
Sure.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
that's ridiculous
the party stalemate does not trump all. Would you vote for Ann Coulter if Dems controlled Congress? David Duke? Rush Limbaugh? Palin isn’t the same but you can’t justify her just because of the party stalemate you want to create.
And there’s a good chance Dems dont’ control congress past 2010. We’ll see who you vote for in 2012. back to not voting…
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
If the Dems don't control congress...
I’ll vote for a dem president. No big deal.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
what if congress is split
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
I would have...
to figure out who’s policies would be least likely to be enacted in the split congress.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
some legislation does work to decrease government control
Admittedly, most of those are republican. But things like social security reform, tax cuts would seemingly be stuff you are looking for. you dont’ want to enact those policies either? what if one party came out and said they would get rid of the SEC?
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Bush...
had a narrow majority in Congress and couldn’t pass Social Security reform. It’s something I concede that I will never see reformed in a way that I will find meaningful or positive.
As for other policies, I’m basically of the opinion that 90% of anything Congress does is going to be something idiotic, so I’d rather them do nothing.
And I’d prefer that they not abolish the SEC.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
really?
I’ve talked to many securities litigators and they all wonder what it is that the SEC does that the DOJ couldn’t do.
But I’ll accept that even when Congress is trying to cede control, they try to make some power grab in another way.
But, I also think it’s silly to think that the President/Congress not being of the same party means that policies won’t get passed. There are lots of Bush policies that have gotten passed by the Democrat Congress that they probably wouldn’t have had it been a Dem president in there.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
There are a lot of things...
that are done at the SRO level. There are things that are done at the fed level (Reg T, etc.). I don’t have any specific problems with the way that it works now. I’d prefer that an aggressive NY state governor like Spitzer would not be able to hold a company hostage.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Minimize the bleeding.
A divided government is still going to pass laws. My hope is that a divided government would pass fewer laws (and no major ones).
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
How many major laws...
…were passed from the time Clinton was elected President until the GOP Revolution that took over Congress?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2008 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions
She's not dumb
She just hasn’t been a local politician until recently. She was a small town mayor a couple years ago, and Alaska is fairly small and insular compared to most states. She’s smart and obviously has political talent. If she gets up to speed on policies I don’t see why she couldn’t be a viable candidate. I wouldn’t vote for her, but I could see why some would.
I don’t think she has the intellect to be a great president, but she has the talent to be a great politician.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
she's ran a pretty half assed campaign
i don’t think you can look at what she’s don in this race as a gauge for what she will do in a presidential race that starts in the primaries.
also, i think gender biases will affect her more than hillary.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Sarah Palin is not a moron, nor is any of this her fault.
Sarah Palin hasn’t run the campaign, McCain’s people have run it into the ground.
You’re Sarah Palin – really a nobody who suddenly becomes governor and 2 years later is offered the VP nomination. You have no preparation at all – never mind for the VP job, but for the campaign.
You get the phone call offering you the job – what do you do? Say no, and possibly anger people who actually matter in the Republican Party (unlike the schmoes in Alaska she upended). Also, you’re governor of Alaska – not a major political figure yet – you have no idea if you’ll get a shot at this again. If you have ANY political ambition, you have to say yes.
So she says yes and assumes the people in McCain’s camp know what they are doing. But they don’t! She is trying to learn how to run a national campaign AND trying to learn specifics/details of policy AND has to deal with more people watching her every move every second than even knew her name three months ago.
No, maybe she wasn’t the ideal choice. But that wasn’t her fault – if you ask me, she’s done an amazing job in going from someone with her background to what her standing is in the race right now. Its McCain’s team’s fault for not having vetted her out sooner (wait, maybe asking her to learn all this stuff so fast will be too much) , its his taem’s fault for not having a rational unvieling gameplan when she entered (far too much pressure got onto those interviews, thanks to their mystery policy at the onset). Its his team’s fault for not having a cohesive message that she would fit into.
by JBImaknee on Oct 24, 2008 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
ok
this is like all those people who think motley crue drummer is the best ever because he’s doing it with one arm. I applaud Palin’s valiant efforts and her ability to not know an answer to a question and still manage to spit something out without running off the stage. I applaud both of them for dealing with so much incompetence in their campaigns that they can’t get good direction or a unified consistent message.
however, palin is a total dumbass. the things she doesn’t know and is learning – she should already know those things. Why? Because I know those things and it’s not even my job to know them.
perhaps moron was not specific enough. I think she is savvy and street smart but she certainly is not knowledgeable about most things that have to do with knowledgeable politics and her governing style would be to surround herself with advisers of the republican party’s inner circle and listen to them non stop. That, to me, is a moron.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
damn
tommy lee does have 2 arms (at least)
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
I didn't say she was the best ever
I’m just saying that a lot of problems people see in Sarah Palin’s campaign style can be attributed to McCain’s whole campaign being a disaster.
As for Katie Couric; I had a news crew stick a camera in my face and ask me something once. I sounded like Rainman asking where the bathroom was. I fully believe it is possible that she was a bit out of her league with those interviews – so much pressure not to fail that she cracked. Now, should she know that stuff backwards and forwards that she could answer it without thinking – Yes. But that is McCain and his people’s fault – not hers.
I can understand the opinion that you want someone more educated/intellectual as president. I agree with that as well. But I think it is a little much to say she’s a moron. She’s obviously pretty bright about some things to get this far – I refuse to believe she’s an idiot. People may disagree with her on some important issues – that is fair. But dismissing her as a dumbass is a little much.
no, it really isn't
she’s a dumbass. why are people so reluctant to say that? she’s horribly retarded. her educational background is less than stellar and she doesn’t seem to have a grasp of any political issues or civic issues. I understand getting nervous in front of news crews but i’m not judging this based on one interview. she’s been in the public now enough where you can tell she’s just ignorant.
and, her political successes really shouldn’t be proof that she isn’t. you can get pretty far in politics with good looks, great personality, making the right friends, and backing the right policies. brains aren’t even a great forecaster of political success.
but, tying it back to my previous point, I don’t think the American people will elect an obvious dumbass to the presidency in a time of economic crisis. probably not in war time either (one bigger than the current one).
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
your someone who would think im an idiot for supporting mccain/palin
or an idiot for sharing a lot of the same policy viewpoints as palin.
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions
get over yourself.
You should be careful saying stuff like this
she’s a dumbass. why are people so reluctant to say that? she’s horribly retarded. her educational background is less than stellar and she doesn’t seem to have a grasp of any political issues or civic issues.
I’m sorry, but not being an expert of civil issues doesn’t make you a dumbass or retarded. It may make you less than qualified to be in a major political office (like I said I agree with before). But tone down the insults here. Is everyone who went to University of Idaho “horribly retarded”? Is everyone who can’t name all 9 supreme court justices “a dumbass?” I have a friend who I am convinced is a genius when it comes to neuroscience, and by genius I mean truly gifted. Is he a dumbass for not knowing federal level political issues backwards and forwards?
And yes, I understand saying she shouldn’t be running for Vice President. As I pointed out – she’s obviously not qualified for that. But you’re not helping your cause any by hurling insults because she doesn’t meet your personal standards of whatever. I have known and seen plenty of people who are really "dumbass"es, “horribly retarded” and “morons,” and Sarah Palin certainly is not one of them.
If you really believe that, then you are a poster child for why 80% of the country doesn’t like elitist liberals, which is why the charge suck for so long with Obama.
yeah, I guess I should be more compassionate and understanding
it’s ok if you don’t know what the VP’s duties are or if you can’t name a Supreme Court case. At least you’re trying hard!
Call me elite, I don’t care. But, I have a standard of what a dumbass is and isn’t. And she doesn’t pass my test. If you think my standards are too high, then so be it. Obviously there is not objective standard to who is and isn’t a dumbass. She just happens to not pass my subjective one. What are you getting so bent out of shape for?
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Questions
What percentage of the population would pass your subjective opinion of what a dumbass is?
Do you think she’s in the bottom 10% of the American population in terms of intellect?
Bottom 25? Bottom 50?
Or are you grading on a curve, which makes her not a dumbass if she were the Mayor of Wasilla, but a definite dumbass if she’s running for VP?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions
i don't think she should have been mayor
but she probably couldnt’ have done that much damage as mayor.
I would say bottom 25
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
No way she is bottom 25 in the country
Go to WalMart sometime and listen to some of the people talk in there. I was behind someone who was confused when asked “is that credit or debit?”
I’ll give you that she’s probably bottom 25% of people who make it to executive level of politics (mayor, governor), much less considered for being a VP candidate.
So if she took an IQ test...
…she’d score around an 80-85?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 25, 2008 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions
and that number does seem too low
though I don’t really know about IQ enough to give a good answer.
also, IQ is inherently strange. I never would have thought James Woods is so high (if it is) and JFK’s was so low.
I’m copping out but whatever.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
IQ
is just like LSAT—predictive only in the absolute aggregate. Plenty of outliers that buck the trend.
by brettgardner on Oct 25, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions
i take this back
i have no way of judging this for society as a whole. I grew up in an upper middle class public school system. there, i would place her in the bottom 25
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
lol
This is funny on a lot of levels.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
please enlighten me
upper middle class public school smacks of elitism?
i find it mind bogglign that people like you call people dumbasses left and right on this board yet you think palin is something more. please. you’re not running for political office. just say what’s on your mind.
if you really honestly think she isn’t, then you are delusional – which has seemingly been established already.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
No...
upper middle class public school doesn’t smack of elitism. It just smacks of delusion on your part to say that she’s easily in the lower 25% of people at whatever upper middle class school you went to.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
delusion?
no it doesn’t. unless you think she’s a lot smarter than she is.
the upper middle class thing was just to hedge against the idea that maybe I’m not exposed to the bottom 10% of the population but my high school wasn’t exceptional or anything and if you don’t believe in nurture over nature than it is irrelevant.
but i don’t really have any problem with you disagreeing with me that palin isn’t smart. i’m fairly confident in my assessment.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Fairly confident in your assessment...
heh.
Well, I went to a magnet school. By definition, my classmates were supposed to be smarter than average, and I can, in no way, speculate whether Palin is smarter or dumber than any of my former peers. On what basis am I supposed to judge?
Similarly, you don’t know anything about this woman except her record and what you’ve heard her say, and I’d argue that her record doesn’t indicate that she’s stupid. Frankly, I get irritated with this crap… disagree with someone on the issues, but don’t call them stupid because you don’t know.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
I love this.
So when do we come within the encompassing circle of “knowing her”? If ab03 says hi and she shakes his hand, is that “knowing” her? I love that we don’t get to use a person’s record and words to judge whether or not he or she’s stupid (though it is telling that you use her record to prove that she’s not stupid.)
Also, I would love to know what definition you’re looking at that proves magnet schools contain “by definition” smarter than average students.
by brettgardner on Oct 25, 2008 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions
i know as much about them as i do about you
or anyone else on this board and I’m pretty sure I’ve called people on this board stupid (but I am wrong a lot and I try to apologize when I can).
It’s not that big of a deal. Why would you get more upset about that than if I called her ugly and surly. It’s just a character trait among many. Plenty of people on the Dem side that I think aren’t very bright – thus wouldn’t make very good Presidential candidates right now
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
I suppose...
what I find irritating about it is that this is a common trope from the left… conservative candidates are often characterized as “stupid.” Hell, often people from the left characterize anyone who disagrees with them as “stupid.” It’s irritating and non-productive.
Being a political candidate encompasses a lot of skills, many of which have no bearing on someone’s intelligence. For instance, much of the “question answering” depends on learned skills that are similar to what you would see in “improv” or “freestyle rapping,” i.e., taking the unexpected and weaving it into your message.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
"no bearing on someone's intelligence"
you don’t say? i think i heard that somewhere else in this thread.
you know, it’s not a common trope from the left. it is a common characterization of democrats made by republicans. “elite, snooty, etc”. but nobody calls mccain dumb, nobody calls cheney dumbs, nobody calls rice dumb, nobody calls rove dumb, nobody called rumsfeld dumb…
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
am i a dumbass because i agree with her policy viewpoints?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
do you agree that the VP runs the senate?
do you know what the Bush doctrine is?
i’m leaning that way anyway
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
your gonna pull out “the bush doctrine”
what wold you say it was? honestly…i was under the impression that this had been put to bed
you really think shes that dumb? …really? i just dont understand how you think someone that is a complete idiot can be elected mayor, gov and be vetted/run for veep
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions
what would i say it was?
u.s. has the right to pre-emptively strike a country to ensure its own security.
if you think the answer is more nuanced, then fine. i would have been fine with her mentioning pre-emptive strikes.
and i’ve already stated that political success isn’t a good indicator of mental aptitude.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
But the Bush doctrine...
doesn’t have a clearly defined meaning. She said, as I recall, “what do you mean by that,” he clarified, she answered.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
that's not how it went down
and if she knew what it was (like had any clue), she would have been able to answer “do you agree with the bush doctrine.” why wouldn’t she just say what she agrees with. it was obvious she hadnt’ heard the term before.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
also, Universtiy of Idaho is not what I was referring to
I’m talking about how she minored in political science and still doesn’t know important federal level issues or obvious ones like what the VP does.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
also
evolution issue – might as well be a litmus test for me. Maybe it’s a political thing and she’s trying to appease a base. But if she honest to god doesn’t believe in it, she’s a dumbass.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
There's...
no inherent conflict in believing in creation and evolution. Does she say she doesn’t believe in evolution?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
no idea but...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDrhVR8d2Gk
as far as that answer she isn’t wacko.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
Sounds like...
she’s not a new earther. Don’t see any inherent problem with the answer.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
well obviously that answer is fine
her previous answers were not
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
What were her previous answers?
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
The only thing I've seen...
…is that she supposedly told someone in Alaska at some point that dinosaurs and humans lived at the same time. Given the lack of corroboration, I’m inclined to dismiss that.
However, she can’t really come out and take a position on the subject, because a lot of her support comes from the Dobson crowd that supports a Young Earth Creationist view, and would view her as something of a traitor if she professed to believe in evolution and that the earth is 5 billion years old.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2008 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course...
…it appears that a significant portion of the American public believes (generally) in the Young Earth theory, at least as far as human life goes:
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2008 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions
And the number
is pretty steady. This never ceases to amaze me.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
well
she said that both should be taught. now she appears to say that creationism doesn’t have a place in public education
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
+1 jbimaknee
VG post
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions
2012
I see an Obama presidency as either a stunning success or epic failure (as far as popularity goes). So in 2012, you’ll have either a juggernaut who cannot be defeated or someone who is so weak that HILLARY will go after him.
I think under the Juggernaut scenario, Palin would be a moron to run (really, whoever would sacrifice their political career in a run against a popular in-office Obama is probably too stupid to be President anyway). Instead, we’ll see someone who can offer a stark contrast to Obama and maybe getting too old to wati until 2016 (Giulliani?, maybe Romney?, Gingrich wants to mount one serious try?). Palin against a strong Obama doesn’t make sense.
Under the Obama failure scenario, I think Hillary would challenge him, and possibly win. Palin vs Hillary doesn’t make sense (though Palin would probably get the VP nod again, in that case).
Two other things. I think Bloomberg runs in 2012, and Palin is in no hurry. I think if/when they lose, we don’t hear from Palin much until she runs, as a Senator or something, 2016 or 2020.
In 2012
I think Obama will have the economy in his favor and win an easy re-election. I can’t see the Republicans sacrificing Palin in that scenario. Maybe Gingrich would run and to try to steer the issues in favor of the Republicans so that they could pick up some seats in Congress. Come 2016, Palin could become a very formidable candidate for President. She would actually start running in 2014 and by the time the primaries she would be very well versed on the issues. Wasn’t that the Obama game plan?
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
can't make plans like that THAT far in advance
a lot of palin’s lure is that she is hot. will she bee that pretty in 8 years when she’s 52? possibly.
i’m not convinced she could make it out of primaries. her name may wear off, she shine may be gone. who knows?
regarding gingrich running in 4 years? he will be 69. he’s also unpopular and very divisive. he worked wonders in 1994 for his party, but essentially let them down. ask tom coburn.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
yea
i have a friend who is very politially active back in TX who said from the beginning that he thought mccan/obama would both be one term presidents
i think i am starting to agree
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions
policies
IIRC i dont agree 100% with what he thinks but either obama will be unbeatable in four years or he will be very very weak i dont think he ends up in the middle
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
i could be wrong
but i think drudge is using the english language liberally when he says that “early voters are about evenly split politically”
everything i have read shows that dems for the most part (at least in battleground states) are double, tripling even quadrupling repubs in early voting.
that gallup article says that dems and repubs are basically split evenly on intent of voting early. it is not a poll of people that actually HAVE voted early and their party ID.
drudge makes it sound like they are voting early in the same numbers. they are not the same thing.
if the gallup article/poll holds true, then DEMS double the republicans in total votes cast. i doubt that. i’m gonna guess that republicans will out vote dems on election day (or roughly tie), but the early voting will put the dems over the top.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
drudge has his agenda
i don’t think anybody is going to dispute that at this point
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Yep
Drudge isn’t as blatantly biased as the Huffington Post is (at least Drudge cares more about shock value than whatever his agenda is), but he’s been pretty bad about polling data this year.
But then again, I’m pretty convinced most media sources have some sort of bias, which is completely fine as long as you realize it and weight the source accordingly.
via media matters
Michael Savage, Rush Limbaugh, and Jerome Corsi suggested or asserted that the true purpose of Sen. Barack Obama’s current trip to Hawaii is not to visit his ailing grandmother, as Obama claims, but rather to address rumors — widely debunked — that Obama has failed to produce a valid U.S. birth certificate. However, in addition to FactCheck.org and a Hawaiian Health Department official, even Corsi’s employer, the right-wing website WorldNetDaily, has reportedly determined that the birth certificate provided by the Obama campaign is authentic.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
Just pathetic...
The guy went to see the woman who raised him and is basically on her death bed.
So some neocons start up with this birth certificate BS. That’s pretty low, even for those 3 assclowns.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
The dems...
did the same thing with Cheney in 2000.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
well they could have raised a fuss about McCain
(who wasn’t exactly born in the 50 states) but never did
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
what could you say?
that suddenly after how many years of running/winning/being in congress suddently it was all null and void and he couldnt run for the president?
lol thats not “not raising a fuss” – thats being politically smart
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Heh
I just realized that if that story (McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone – he can’t be President) had ANY legs at all, Karl Rove would have used it in 2000 to take McCain out. At least there is some truth behind that story, unlike the ones they made up in South Carolina…
hmm
and obama hasn’t been in political office at all?
it’s not like karl rove is like a god who always makes the right play. But the mechanics of trying to disqualify mccain based on that are just too difficult to pursue. Requires an intepretation of the Constitution that I think the Supreme Court would have to rule on. Who has time for that?
http://lettersinbottles.blogspot.com/2008/02/mccains-canal-zone-birth-disqualifier.html
Fleshes out the issues. You’re right though, the issue looks like it would support McCain. But it’s not anymore stupid than going after Obama because you think he forged his birth certificate. At least McCain’s issue is a question of law that might go the other way
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
your really and truly going to compare the limited elections that obama has been in
to the how many elections mccain has been in?
…comethefuckon
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
probably the weakest point
and you got nothing about the other ones. do you even remember what you are arguing? The fact that republicans are going after obama about Birth certificates (if they are) and democrats didn’t go after mccain on natural citizens are pretty much the same decision.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Actually...
…the issue there was Cheney changing his registration from Texas to Wyoming so he could qualify to run with GW.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2008 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions
oh that's what he was talking about
i remember that. eh. that’s different because it’s…less cruel.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
It's analagous.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
not quite
the obama birth certificate issue is questioning his honesty and the legal status of his ability to run for president. and it’s bogus.
the dick cheney thing was never a question of legality. what he did was legal. he just changed his permanent address and where he was registered. there were no allegations of secrecy and illegal deeds. at least from my memory.
it was akin to hilldawg carpetbagging NY.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
Not really
Is there really any legitimate question about whether Obama was born in the U.S.?
On the other hand, Cheney clearly was a Texan, and he clearly changed his residency and registration to Wyoming for the sole purpose of being eligible to be VP.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2008 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions
It's analagous...
because it’s a stupid bullshit technicality that gets like 5% of the electorate all worked into a tizzy because they think it matters.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
You can have two people from the same state
The problem is that electors from that particular state (in Bush/Cheney’s case; Texas) are not able to vote for both of them. Obviously in 2000 that would have mattered quite a bit (though I guess the vote for VP would have gone to the Senate, which was Republican).
I could be completely wrong about that though.
i don't remember that
and i wasn’t calling out republicans. i was callin gout savage, limbaugh and corsi
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
Savage isn't a Republican
He’s a straight-up turd sandwich. He makes Hannity and Malkin look like Walter Cronkite.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 24, 2008 8:53 PM CDT up reply actions
or is he a giant douche?
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
Yeah
Savage kind of goes in the same class as Ann Coulter, though I don’t know what he is – I guess he’s conservative in a bizarre fanatic sort of way. I’m shocked that so many people listen to him.
Limbaugh, Hannity and Malkin at least try not to be blatantly out and out bigoted. They just don’t care a wit about the other side’s point of view.
I think he was 5th in terms of listeners
which is pretty amazing
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
wow
years ago I knew a guy who listened to him (I hadn’t heard of him at the time). He was an angry bitter guy, and so when I heard him in his car one day, I realized why my friend listened to him. Apparently bitter, angry people like bitter, vicious talk show hosts.
of course
rush made a lot of money figuring that out and apparently there are enough listeners like that to go around. you gotta figure there are people that listen to people like that all day long. To say nothing of their political viewpoints, they will keep you in a tizzy all day long. lord knows what the next 4 years are going to be like for them.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
How to Take American Health Care From Worst to First
An Op-Ed piece in the NYTimes by:
Newt Gingrich, John Kerry & Billy Beane
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/opinion/24beane.html?_r=2&th&emc=th&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 24, 2008 11:10 PM CDT reply actions
Great
now we’ll get political writers fomenting against guys sitting in their mothers’ basements coming with health plans.
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Over at Athletics Nation Blez has this:
I wonder if it means we’re going to have a new measure for doctors, something like accurate diagnosis created (number of times poked with a needle + incorrect lab tests ordered + number of minutes spent in waiting room + number of trips to the physician required/number of days of pain free relief). And VORIP (value over replacement insurance provider) which could be something like Number of times request to see a specialist rejected+number of times forced to use a generic medicine+number of times refusal to pay for unauthorized emergency hospital stay/number of times insurance company doesn’t hassle you about something they should cover.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 24, 2008 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Newt and health care
I’m telling you, he’s a good voice on this.
I saw him present on Science and Health care to a group of academic scientists (obviously not his most loving crowd). They were hanging on every word he said. Newt is a smart man, with very good conservative ideas yet is a realist about what is feasible in the current economic and political climate.
Newt
I agree, he’s a pragmatic guy willing to push good ideas. His style rubs the wrong way sometimes but he seems a tad mellower since being out of office.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
As long as he isn't...
bitching about family values and extramarital affairs.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
True
I’m willing to chalk that up to political expediency, and since his hypocrisy resulted in a ten year exile, I’m willing to forgive him now. Especially since the Newt-less Republicans are a disaster
I think that humbling experience
may be behind his relative mellowing. Relative, I say.
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A neat article about why the republicans are losing house seats left and right
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=56a3ea96-037a-45a3-9885-4558580577f9
And from the end, a point consistent with my earlier point about why I think the Dems are in trouble if they win too much
The Democrats’ adaptability spells victory—for now. But Pelosi’s big, fat, motley family could get dysfunctional in the 111th Congress
….
But Blue Dog Democrats may face more vigorous left-wing opposition in 2009. The House leadership favored conservatives in the 110th, and progressives often capitulated for the good of the party. But, explains Edwards, that forgiving spirit won’t last forever. If Kratovil [conservative Democrat] wins in November—a Democratic miracle—it could soon be tears of frustration he’s weeping. “We’re done laying down everything for the Blue Dogs,” Edwards [liberal Democrat] warned. “I talk to progressives and we say, ’We’re done giving in.’”
why are dems in trouble if they win too much?
is it a foregone conclusion for you that progressive policies are going to fail?
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
No, they may not fail
But I firmly believe that most of the country isn’t gung-ho to try out those progressive policies. The mandate the Democrats is that they are not Republicans. If the believe they have a mandate for everything, they’ll go down in flames like the Republicans 8 years ago did.
If Obama sticks to health care and energy, then yeah, he’ll be fine. But if they try to socialize 401Ks (like that WSJ article I think Ben linked to suggests), then they’ll be in the same trouble the R’s are in.
we'll see what progressives do
especially under the direction of Obama. He’s already tailored his policies to be more mainstream. I don’t think they’ll have much energy to do much more than pass healthcare and make bailout decisions and they aren’t going to go so far left on something that like the bailout where the initial fall out will be a worse economy (government by dow).
If they can get a handle on the economy while passing some infrastructure and minor welfare laws, I think the public will be ok with that. I don’t think the Progressives will just blow their load and try to get in as many left leaning policies just because they can.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
here's the real issue
where is the fight going to be? For Clinton, he had to decide gays in the military as his first law. That pretty much set the tone for his slightly left of center administration.
What will be a similar litmus test for the Obama administration in terms of picking between progressives and slightly liberals? Here’s where a savvy Republican minority might force the issue.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
I'd be willing to bet
That Obama could nominate another Roberts and/or Alito when Stevens and (possibly) Souter retire, scrap his broad healthcare agenda, do an about face on the top tax bracket, and adopt any number of other conservative policies, and Republicans would still hate him, and Democrats would still love him.
Not really related to the topic, I know.
by brettgardner on Oct 25, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
crazy talk
yikes!
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
He is right, in part at least
I think a lot of people just project whatever image they want onto Obama, positive or negative. He’s like Hillary Clinton, except with her, most people have a negative view of her even if they don’t know why. I am hoping Obama uses his political capital to take some chances and be really moderate, taking the chance of pissing off the base. I’m afraid he’ll use it to do something too far left and allow himself to be pushed further that way by a too Democratic congress.
I view Obama as more open minded than McCain, though, and willing to listen to solid opinions that might not fit the part platform.
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i have no idea why you have that preconceived notion about Obama
too far left? really? I’d bet a lot of money that he won’t pass anything too far left at all. especially if it isn’t popular
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
You read pretty selectively
if that’s all you got out of that post. Some of the things he is proposing are definitely left leaning, some not so much. I think he’ll be more centrist than the GOP fears, but they’ll still claim he’s Karl Marx.
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this line
“I’m afraid he’ll use it to do something too far left and allow himself to be pushed further that way by a too Democratic congress.”
was all I was responding to. I just don’t see any basis for it. people were claiming in the primary that he wasn’t all that progressive to begin with
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Obviously some on the right would
just like had Bush nominated another Ginsberg and took “compassionate conservatism” to the extreme compassionate side.
But I’m willing to think that many conservatives are skeptical but open minded. The fear is because they just don’t know what they are getting. Note some of his endorsements (Christopher Buckley, for one).
Buckley
is being called a traitor (and worse). No, the hard core righties think they know exactly what Obama is, and no matter what he does they will hate him. If he jettisoned the Education, Commerce, etc. departments like Gingrich’s drew wanted to they’d still hate him.
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Blue dog democrats
are kind of being chased out of the party just like libertarian Republicans are. If the 2 groups had a party of their own, I’d join them in a heartbeat.
"Oh well, McCain is pretty communist anyway,... we can be 70% communist with McCain,"-Sharky
That's kind of what I think may happen
because you know the lefty Dems (Kos people, etc) aren’t going to see the similarity between them and the DeLay takeover of the Republicans. They are already talking about how they’ll have such a majority the moderate Dems won’t matter.
It all really depends on Howard Dean. He got the Dems into this powerful a position by embracing the Blue Dogs. But we’ll have to see if he can keep the far left of his party from taking full control. He’s smart enough to see what happened to the republicans. There are more Red States than Blue ones – there is no way the Dems can ever hold the Senate by forcing their party to the left.
Just saw McCain's latest ad
“I’m Joe the Plumber”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AB7MiMlf49s
Since the campaign is running with this, it must be working, right? If it is working, why isn’t the Obama campaign countering with the fact that Joe the Plumber stated that he’s going to make more than $250,000 when he buys his business?
How many Joe the Plumber’s make in excess of $250k?
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 25, 2008 11:58 AM CDT reply actions
I think it works
and I think Obama’s people have realized that it hurts them far more to attack “Joe the Plumber” than to just ignore him.
Its also better for people to think that he already is rich than simply wants to be rich. The dream “I’m going to make more than $250K someday” resonates with a lot of people. Better to just make it seem like he’s already rich.
$250K
is rich? Is that gross income, adjusted gross or net?
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
Median U.S. household income is $61.5k
Four times the median would be considered rich to probably 75% of the population.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 25, 2008 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
And here's the link
just so BT doesn’t beat my ass.
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 25, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Okay
Now he’s really going to beat my ass
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2008/02/median-us-gross.html
by robert_d_wilfong on Oct 25, 2008 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Pehaps not "rich"...
but very well off. Gross or net.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
just because mccain is continuing to do something doesn't mean it's working
he has to run some kind of ad with his money.
He also probably has internals that show that it’s working in Penn and WV. We’ll see how that goes.
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Joe the Hypocrite
Says the other day that he’s ready to get out of the media spotlight…except then the next day he said he’d consider running for congress in 2010. This guy is enjoying his 15 minutes, but I hope it doesn’t overwhelm him.
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did you wear a leather jacket?
did they call you a whipper snapper?
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
I voted today too
There were only 2 older women voting and they seemed to be confused with the voting machine.
they really need to get rid of those
with so many older technophobic voters and seemingly no increased efficiency in ballot counting, just use write in ballots. or at least have people there willing to help and make it clear to those people that their job is to be completely unbiased. of course those aids would increase the inefficiency of having voter machines
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
Well
I had the choice of paper or electronic.
by brettgardner on Oct 25, 2008 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
i never voted in oklahoma
if i get a choice, i gotta go paper ballot. my apologies to the trees.
"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
I agree
I would have chosen a paper ballot as well but I wasn’t given the option. No need to worry about vote-counting fraud in Texas though so I guess it wouldn’t matter.
i don't think it is an issue of fraud
just an issue of making sure people are voting for who they think they are voting for
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
pollsters graph today

"At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt."
-John McCain to his wife, in front of reporters
interesting video
something in this for both sides I would imagine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxT0ELP7az0
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
what is it?
"I don’t know of a single thing Obama’s done except talk and write." - Newt Gingrich
"I'm more happy to be a Dallas Cowboy than when I got my first bike" - Roy Williams (WR)
by knockoutking on Oct 25, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Jesus.
I’d expect something silly like that from an opinion show, but some local news hack? I’d be pissed off, too.
Those weren’t questions designed to elicit an answer, they were designed to make Biden go on the defensive. How pathetic, and if somebody did that to McCain or Palin on a local TV show, I’d be just as disgusted.
by brettgardner on Oct 25, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
what's funny
it looks like the guy that posted it on youtube is a mccain supporter. I feel like a lot of conservatives would like this interview because it forces the real questions. or even more than that, a lot of people would like these “real” questions asked to both sides then the milquetoast questions they do get.
I mean, biden answered them fine. he got a little mad at the end but we still got legitimate answers to those questions. was there anything wrong with it?
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
There's
Nothing wrong with asking what Biden’s response is on a myriad of issues, but prefacing a question with a silly, outrageous quote is just meant to ruffle him and it comes off as very unprofessional and low-rent.
by brettgardner on Oct 25, 2008 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah
personally, the interviewer made me angry but I have my own personal biases when it comes to these things.
juxtaposed against this interview, it is a little worse: http://www.wftv.com/video/17712615/index.html
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley

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