The fascination with Scott Olsen
Mike Berardino has a story out today about the Marlins' payroll situation, which includes this Rangers relevant part:
Late-blooming John Baker is the starting catcher unless a better option comes along. That could depend on the Rangers' expected pursuit of Olsen, for whom they might be willing to dig into their deep surplus of catchers (Gerald Laird, Jarrod Saltalamacchia).
The Rangers' "expect pursuit of Olsen" dovetails with earlier discussions about the Rangers supposedly being interested in him, and T.R. Sullivan says that Olsen is "definitely a possibility" in his mailbag yesterday.
Here's the thing, though...
Scott Olsen isn't really that good.
He's young and left-handed, so he has that going for him. But after throwing up a 4.22 FIP as a 22 year old rookie in 2006, he's had a 5.33 and 5.02 FIP the past two years.
He'll be 25 at the start of the 2009 season, but he's got three years of service time, so he's already arb-eligible. It isn't like you'll be getting a guy who'll be making the minimum and has a ton of time before he's f.a. eligible...he's eligible for free agency after the 2011 season.
His Ks per 9 have dropped from 8.27 to 6.78 to 5.04. His walk rate dropped to just over 3 per 9 last year, which makes his K/BB ratio bad rather than horrible, but his walk rate was 4.33 per 9 in 2007.
Oh, and he's allowed 1.35 HR/9 in his career, despite pitching in the N.L. in a good pitcher's park, and he's got a career 39.8% flyball rate versus 39.7% groundball rate, so you don't even have the "he sucks, but he's a sucky groundball pitcher" argument you sometimes get for bringing in bad pitchers (see, e.g., the Electrician).
And also, after averaging fastball velocity in the 90-91 mph range prior to 2008, last year, his average fastball velocity dropped to 87.8.
And PECOTA isn't impressed, projecting (before his disappointing 2008 season) his weighted mean ERA to be floating around 5.00 from 2009-2011.
Oh, and he's apparently developed a reputation for being something of a jackass, having had run-ins with his teammates and the law and getting suspended by the Marlins.
So, yeah, I'm just kind of curious...why would the Rangers be targeting him? I can understand viewing him as an Aaron Sele (circa 1997) type reclamation project if you could get him without giving up a ton. Gerald Laird for Olsen, I'd probably do, I guess, although I don't think the Marlins would be interested in Laird, given their payroll situation.
But one of the three young catchers? For a guy who, it doesn't appear, would deserve to be slotted ahead of guys like Matt Harrison, Scott Feldman and Eric Hurley?
I don't get it. I don't see why you'd deal a Ramirez, Teagarden or Saltalamacchia to land Scott Olsen.
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I knew he had struggled
but I did not know the extent.
Like you said, Laird for Olsen? OK.
Any of the other 3? You gotta give me more than Olsen back.
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 28, 2008 12:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Concur
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Oct 28, 2008 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am sure
the Marlins won’t trade Miller or Vlostad. The only one I would be interested in is Nolasco. How do Bucholz and Nolasco compare?
Nolan Ryan should be the Rangers president, GM, manager and pitching coach.
by RangerMad on Oct 28, 2008 12:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nolasco >> Bucholz
Nolasco pitched absolutely lights out in the bigs for a full season. Buch is all promise
At this rate, he’ll be throwing 107-110 by 2012
by trident on Oct 28, 2008 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Nolasco...
but there is a lot of “promise” in Buchholz.
I’d be ecstatic with either.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Oct 28, 2008 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Olsen
His name arises because he’s arb eligible. The Marlins are either actively shopping him, or their beat writers are taking the educated guess he’s available.
Agree, if that’s all that’s available for a young catcher (ie, a bidding war among Boston, Detroit and Florida results in nothing better), the Rangers should just hang on. It starts to look absurd having all the depth, but you have to get something more promising for Salty/Tea/Max even if it requires digging a few layers into the minors.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 28, 2008 12:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The problem with that argument
is that the Rangers are getting close to a point where their hand will be forced. Worst case scenario, you could have Salty and Laird platoon again in 2009 – but more likely than not you will decrease their value yet again – and Tea and MaxRam in the minors. But by 2010, you’ll have 3 major league catchers, plus one (MaxRam) who will be ready also.
I think the Rangers really need to trade either Salty or Laird this offseason. Both guys played ball with the platoon situation last year, but they’d be pushing their luck to do it again (both are candidates for outright rebellion). Furthermore, both are about to lose most of their trade value – Salty will go from a good trade chip to a bad one with another iffy year, and Laird will be near free agency. If you cannot get the ‘young major league ready good starter’ then you go for someone further out with that potential or for hitting or something.
That isn’t to say you rush into something – I still trust JD to find something good. But I’m not holding my breath for a future Cy Young winner for Salty or Laird.
As far as Olson, if you can attribute some of his performance issues to his head-case status, then maybe you trade for him if you have reason to believe those problems are behind him. I think guys like Olson and Greinke are difficult to project based on past numbers, simply because you don’t know whether those past numbers are indicative of their skills or their head.
by JBImaknee on Oct 28, 2008 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
My biggest fear is us holding on too long and not getting enough for our young catchers
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 28, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If all you can get for Salty...
…or Ramirez is Scott Olsen, I’ll take my chances holding onto both of them.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 28, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
But like JBI said if we hold on too long we run into having to trade one and not getting back what we should for them. While Scott Olsen would be a bad trade right now if we hold on too long i doubt we could even get a Scott olsen this time next year if we still have all four.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 28, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I certainly wouldn't trade Ramirez for Olson
There isn’t any real risk to keeping MaxRam in the system for another year.
If all you can get for Salty is Olson, then Salty’s trade value has already taken a pretty bad beating. The question you’re face wtih is whether you think another year of platooning with Laird will improve his value any? I would be very surprised if Salty’s value could go up in such a circumstance.
Now, I’d rather move Laird for someone else and have Salty start than trade Salty for Olson and start Laird.
by JBImaknee on Oct 28, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't Olsen throw harder
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 28, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His fastball has lost a significant amount of velocity.
I believe he was throwing a FB around 87-88 last season.
by Stephen Rushin on Oct 28, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Olson is leverage for Boston .... I hope
I’m hoping that the Rangers are using the Olson rumors to scare the Red Sox into doing a Salty for Bucholz trade. (Crosses fingers)
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Oct 28, 2008 1:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Truly amazing
That would be truly amazing considering Bucholz was considered the feature piece in some potential Johan Santana deals. To go from getting Johan Santana to getting Gerald Laird is absurd (even if the circumstances are considerably different).
The Rangers already have their share of junk (and I am not talking about his pitching repetoire) left-handed pitchers. Why add another. Quantity is not a substitue for quality in this instance.
What about the Royals? Do we have any interest in Mark Teahen? Could we flip Blalock; then turn around a put together a package for Teahen instead of Grienke? He’s be considerably less and definitly an upgrade at third base. I doubt the Royals really need a catcher, however I’m just brainstorming. I believe I recall some crazy beat writer suggesting Teahen could win the batting title in 2008. They were way off.
by Heebs on Oct 28, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teahen
I guess that would play a major factor. By the looks of it he is a terrible third basemen. If this is true, then he’s probably useless. He can’t hit well enough to play first or right field (like he did mostly in 2007 and 2008).
I wonder what happened in 2007 that made his power go away. In 2006 he looked like a pretty good ball player. He had some decent pop (.874 OPS) and his K/BB was nearly manageable at about 2 to 1. His OPS+ was 122. The last couple years he’s lost all of his power and he strikes out more. I wonder if a better coaching staff/ballpark could make him serviceable.
by Heebs on Oct 28, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andrew Miller
If the Marlins ask about Salty or Ramirez, I might ask about Andrew Miller. I doubt they will deal Volstad or Nolasco. Miller was a lot better than his numbers indicated as he was the victim of Florida’s bad defense. His FIP in 2008 was 3.96. Just a thought.
by Stephen Rushin on Oct 28, 2008 1:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Love the player, doubt they deal any of their ML starters, though (Olsen excepted).
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Oct 28, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could ask...
but they would laugh at you.
by Heebs on Oct 28, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Miller
He’s the kinda guy you wouldn’t mind trading Salty+… he was the main piece (along with maybin) and the Cabrera deal
by Baseball North on Oct 28, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree
I just don’t think Salty would do it. The plus would have to be a pretty good plus.
by Heebs on Oct 28, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't know we were (supposedly) targeting Olsen.
That’s distressing, if true.
by philkid3 on Oct 28, 2008 1:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
thats terrible if true
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
by NYTXFAN on Oct 28, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not true
it’s just true that he’s expected to be available, Fla needs a catcher, TX needs pitching, and people are doing the math and speculating.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Oct 28, 2008 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
olsen
i have no problem with dealing two years of Gerald Laird for Scott Olsen. His WHIP was 1.31, which, without checking, I am pretty sure was almost .2 better than any starter we had last year. He has been relatively injury free and i think he still has projection, especially if he can regain his velocity. he is the sort of underperforming natural talent that this team should be identifying and targeting, especially if they bring in a pitching coach who can actually help develop pitchers.
by clark on Oct 28, 2008 1:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
and keep in mind
he played in front of one of the few infield defenses that was worse than the Rangers last year, and our OF defense is probably much better as well, esp if Borbon comes up and moves Hamilton to a corner next year.
by clark on Oct 28, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marlins payroll
they have announced that they are willing to go up to 40 million this year, which means they could deal one arb eligible guy for another as long as they viewed it as a better reallocation of their assets.
by clark on Oct 28, 2008 1:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
adam
i have not seen anyone suggest that the Rangers could trade any of the three “young” catchers for Olsen. The only trade i have heard seriously bandied about is Laird for Olsen, which i would do, and it sounds like you would too. two years of Laird for three of olsen seems like a no-brainer.
by clark on Oct 28, 2008 3:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I haven't seen anything talking about Laird for Olsen
And I don’t see why the Marlins would want to do that, given that they are trying to reduce payroll, and Laird would cost more than Olsen.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 28, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For Nolasco and a reliever...
How about Salty, Arias (allowing them to trade Uggla at high value), Mayberry and a pitcher.
No impact on our major league roster really. I would like a deal like that for Nolasco or Miller. 3 for 1 or 4 for 2.
Wouldn’t mind doing that deal and finding a way to get Marshall or Hill from the Cubs and then letting it ride for 2009.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
by pbpsean on Oct 28, 2008 3:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why would Florida do that?
Unless the pitcher is someone like Main or someone high level like that, I don’t see why on earth they would even consider that.
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 28, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For Nolasco and a reliver
Florida would want something very substantial like Davis, Salty, and a prospect.
Arias and Mayberry have very little value.
by Stephen Rushin on Oct 28, 2008 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Davis - Nolasco straight up
Which team declines that deal?
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
by tricer on Oct 28, 2008 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's tough...
Nolasco had some injury problems in 2007. While Nolasco was phenomenal down the stretch last season, the Rangers might have some reservations about dealing Davis for a pitcher that has an injury history.
At the same time, the Marlins might also view Nolasco as a possible ace. They might want to contend in 2009 and would prefer to deal Olsen.
Either way, I think that is a pretty fair trade. I think it would be a tough decision for both teams.
by Stephen Rushin on Oct 28, 2008 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not that this means anything at all
but Scott Olsen’s 2006 looks a lot like Zach Greinke’s 2008. The k-rate, gb-rate, and whip are almost identical.
What would you ask Nolan Ryan: "... as a former pitcher, what would you think about having a useless lug standing out there behind you."
Then I'd tell him that useless lug’s name is Michael Young. -- lonestarJesus
by tricer on Oct 28, 2008 4:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to the Scott Olsen sucks party.
Scott Olsen sin’t [sic] good. At all.
He’s pretty terrible. Look at that horrible tRA. (tRA is the like the bigger, stronger, better-looking older brother of FIP.) If he pitched here with our defense he’d have an ERA north of 5.5, easy.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 7, 2008 3:12 PM EDT reply reply actions actions 0 recs
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 28, 2008 8:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
this is where
the great dirkatron and i disagree. he played in front of a horrible defense in FL, and he had a 1.31 WHIP. I’ll take that at the back end of my rotation any day. If he can get his velocity back up to 90, he could be a bargain.
by clark on Oct 28, 2008 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too many walks, not enough strikeouts. Just terrible peripherals.
Once hitters got a read on him and his stuff he came crashing down to Earth. Even when his velo was at 90 (like in ’07) he still sucked.
2007 Marlins 6.78 k/9 4.33 bb/9 1.56 k/bb
And last year was even worse. Just an abject disaster.
2008 Marlins 5.04 k/9 3.08 bb/9 1.64 k/bb
And the defense in FLA might be the greatest, but it’s maybe not as bad as you might think. And certainly it didn’t treat him too bad. A .266 BABIP in ‘08. Our BABIP against was .322. Even if you simply split the difference there you’re looking at a huge hit to his WHIP. Add to that the fact that our ballpark is more hitter friendly than FLA and he’d be coming to the much tougher AL… and, yah. He’d get ownershipped ridiculously hard over here.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 28, 2008 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have enough
of those already, we don’t need to be trading a catcher for another.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Oct 28, 2008 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not even Larid?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Oct 28, 2008 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
*Laird*
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Oct 28, 2008 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather take
a batter arm in return for a different catcher and just keep Laird around if that’s the best they can get for him.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Oct 28, 2008 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough...
not a bad option either.
As long as that better arm is on the table, at least one catcher needs to be moved for pitching imo.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Oct 29, 2008 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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