Projecting the 4H Club

I think it was the esteemed Mr. Coffin who originally hung the “4H Club” moniker on Hurley, Harrison, Hunter, and Holland. Ed, if you’re out there, I hope you don’t mind me using/stealing the phrase. 

Since 1990, 77 American League pitchers have started at least three games as 22 year-olds in their debut seasons.  Interesting names on that list include Appier, Abbott (Jim), Danks, Lester, Mulder, McDonald, Radke, Carpenter, Buchholtz, Volquez, Santana (Ervin), Carmona, Westbrook, Litsch, Verlander, Escobar, Mussina, Hentgen, Harden, Gordon, and Erickson.  Joining that list in 2008 were three Rangers (Harrison, Hurley, and Hunter).  A fourth is likely to join them as Derek Holland is expected to get his first shot at the major leagues in 2009.

To develop a sense of what we might be able to expect from the Rangers’ 4H club over the next few years, I reviewed the performances of the other American League pitchers who had debuted at the age of 22. 

Year-by-year stats
22 yo season – 77 pitchers averaged 12 games and an ERA+ of 96.4.
23 yo season – 67 pitchers averaged 18 games and an ERA+ of 94.0.
24 yo season – 52 pitchers averaged 20 games and an ERA+ of 96.1.
25 yo season – 40 pitchers averaged 19 games and an ERA+ of 100.8.
26 yo season – 29 pitchers averaged 21 games and an ERA+ of 101.2.

The falling number of pitchers in successive years is a combination of players being transitioned to the bullpen, moving to the National League, and failing to remain in the majors.  In addition, 18 of the players from this dataset have yet to reach their 26th birthdays, meaning that they contributed to the earlier age categories but not the latter.  Overall, 65% of the pitchers that debuted as starters at the age of 22 years old had at least decent major league careers.  As a group, the pitchers started as slightly below average and became average to slightly above average over a three to four year period.  When you begin to look at the individual pitchers within the collective, it becomes apparent that the pitchers can be readily categorized based on their annual performance trajectories.

Classes of Pitchers
The 77 pitchers in this group can be broken into three primary groups based on whether they were above average (ERA+ > 100), slightly below average (ERA+ = 75-100), or significantly below average (ERA+ <75) in their first years.  Each of the three primary categories can then be bisected into pitchers who maintained their first year performance and those whose performance changed as they matured.  Provided below are the numbers of pitchers who fit into these six categories and how the pitchers in each group performed on average during the seasons when they were 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26.

Class I - Started hot and maintained
22 pitchers (29% of the total) had an ERA+ over 100 as rookies and then maintained that level of performance through all or most of their careers.  On average during the first five years of their careers, the pitchers produced an ERA+ of 138 (22 yo), 110 (23yo), 118 (24yo), 130 (25yo), and 127 (26yo).  As a group, the pitchers averaged ~25 starts per year after the ~15 that they started in their debut seasons.  Notable examples from this group include Appier, Erickson, Gordon, Harden, Hentgen, Mussina, McDonald, and Zito.

Class II – Started hot and faded
Only 5 pitchers (6% of the total) started with an ERA+ greater than 100 and then posted an average ERA+ below 100 during the rest of their careers.  Sam Militello, Doug Waechter, Jason Bere, Jimmy Haynes, and Joe Kennedy are the members of this club.
 
Class III – Started below average and climbed
14 pitchers (18% of the total) produced an ERA+ that fell in the range of 75 to 100 in their rookie seasons and then managed to become average to above average starting pitchers within 3 years.  On average during the first five years of their careers, the pitchers posted an ERA+ of 88 (22yo), 116 (23yo), 106 (24yo), 110 (25yo), and 103 (26yo).  Notable members of this group include Ervin Santana, Chris Carpenter, Eric Milton, Brad Radke, Jon Lester, John Danks, and Mark Mulder.

Class IV – Started below average and failed to stick as starters
14 pitchers (~18% of the total) produced an ERA+ that fell in the range of 75 to 100 and failed to remain starters after various numbers of auditions. Eight of the pitchers have become relievers and the other six are either in the minor leagues or out of professional baseball. Members of this group include current and past Rangers Kam Loe, Jason Standridge, John Wasdin, and Matt Perisho.

Class V – Started bad and became good
Only 5 pitchers (6% of the total) comprise this class (Verlander, Volquez, Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins, and JP Howell).  Each of these pitchers has experienced success in the major leagues after having rookie campaigns that ended with an ERA+ below 75.  Two pitchers who debuted this year (Tommy Hunter and Gio Gonzalez) have a chance to join them.

Class VI – Started bad and never recovered
11 pitchers (14%) started with an ERA+ below 75 and simply failed to remain in the big leagues beyond a few years. 

You’ll note that the list above captures only 71 of the 77 pitchers who began their American League careers as 22 yo starters.  The other 6, including three Rangers, have just completed their first or second season and have yet to reveal their class affiliation.  More than half of the pitchers (38 out of 71) in this analysis have proven to be average to significantly above average major league starters.  Approximately ten others have become successful relievers.  Worth noting is that slightly more than half of the average to above average starting pitchers from this group were productive as soon as they were called up while the others required as much as three seasons to hit their strides. 

So where will the four Rangers that are currently or soon to be members of the 22yo club likely fit in the classification system above?  Only time will tell, but I’ll speculate below.

Hurley
In 5 starts spanning 24.2 innings, Hurley posted an ERA+ of 80.  Of course, prior to his final start when he gave up 6 ER in 2 innings, Hurley’s ERA+ was north of 100.  Depending on whether you believe that an uninjured Hurley would have finished the season with an ERA+ greater than 100 or between 75 and 100, the historical data would suggest that he would have an 80% or 50% chance of becoming an average to above average major league starter. 

Harrison
Harrison had 14 starts spanning 77.2 innings and posted an ERA+ of 79. He fits comfortably into the group of pitchers who comprise Class III and Class IV.  As such, it would seem that his odds of becoming an average to above average starter in the American League is about 50:50 with a better than 75% chance of at least sticking in the bullpen.

Hunter
In three starts, Hunter pitched 11 innings and was blitzed (ERA+ = 27).  Most pitchers with that type of introduction to the big leagues fail to stick as starters.  As noted above, the two exceptions are exceptional (Verlander and Volquez).  Like Hunter, Verlander and Volquez started only three games as rookies.  Hopefully, that’s an omen.  In regard to Hunter, it is clear that he was rushed to the major leagues due to injuries to the major league staff.  Furthermore, the number of innings that he pitched is far too small to provide reliable numbers. 

Holland
The best pitchers in this cohort started well and simply kept it up.  Appier, Gordon, Harden, Hentgen, Litsch, Lester, Mussina, McDonald, and Zito all had ERAs of 3.5-4.5 in their first seasons and by and large, maintained or improved their numbers as they went.  If Holland is the stud pitcher that he appears to be, then history would suggest that he will be a very productive pitcher beginning with his rookie season.

Bonus Coverage
Brandon McCarthy debuted for the White Sox in 2005 as a 22 yo starting pitcher.  He started 10 games and posted an ERA+ of 111.  Only Harden, Ben McDonald, Zito, Appier, Mussina, Erickson, Jason Bere, Escobar, and Litsch have started at least ten games at the age of 22 and posted a higher ERA+.  Since his rookie season, McCarthy has posted ERA+ of 101, 93, and 106.  Based on his peer group, McCarthy should be putting up numbers consistent with a top-of-the-rotation starter.