Fall Instructional League Report: Part 1
by jparks77 on Oct 4, 2008 10:28 AM CDT
50 comments
I had the privilege of attending the FIL last week and I’d like to share some of my observations on the players whom I was able to either see play in game/simulated/side action, speak with personally, or gather information about from the players/scouts in attendance.
On Blake Beavan:
Blake Beavan: Lots of Beavan during my trip. He closed out the Friday game by uncharacteristically walking two batters, one on four pitches. He ended up getting out of the inning by striking out two batters, but he wasn’t that sharp. In his one inning of work, Beavan threw 29 pitches, with 26 of them being fastballs. Considering the average velocity of his fastball was 90.3 mph, I assumed he was only throwing two-seamers. However, when I was discussing the game with Beavan, he told me he was only throwing four-seamers and that he didn’t throw a single two-seamer. Odd.
I have enough for a good interview with Beavan, but I think I’ll wait until the spring to bust it out. Enough has already been made of his velocity drop and I’d rather not recycle the same subject matter. I will say this: Beavan is quite aware of his velocity dip, but feels confident that it will return to the 92-95 mph level.
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Main.
He’s been The Man in my book since his AZL debut. I let him slip to 7 or 8 with the ascent of Holland and Feliz and drafting of Smoak, but I’m glad to hear if I bump him back up to the top 5, I wouldn’t be out to lunch, since I wanted to keep him up that high but felt I would only be playing a hunch rather than actual evidence. I’m really glad I got a chance to see him at Clinton this year and that my eyes weren’t deceiving me when it appeared that his fastball was a baffling pitch for hitters. That seems to me to be as much of a weapon as a 98-99 mph heater.
Good stuff Jason.
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 4, 2008 12:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great read
Looking forward to part deux. It’s great to have another source for such detailed reports.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Oct 4, 2008 12:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
Reports like this make the off season a little more bearable
by BEW on Oct 4, 2008 1:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Jason
Were you there long enough to watch Robbie Ross pitch in a game? I know Jamey saw him in a side, but he left before Ross actually pitched.
by LiamP on Oct 4, 2008 1:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the scouting reports, Jason
Do you think that Main is better equipped to handle Bakersfield next year than Kiker/Poveda/Reed/Phillip did this year?
I know you dislike comparing prospects, but comparables give me a sense for what I can expect from a young player. The guy that has given me the most trouble finding a comparable pitcher is Boscan. High groundball rate/high K-rate/advanced secondary pitchers/excellent control. Is there another pitcher with a similar profile as an 18yo? There are those who say that control pitchers who get by with good secondary stuff usually dominate until they get to AA. DO you think that Boscan will have trouble in Frisco when he gets there in a couple of years?
by spurdynasty on Oct 4, 2008 1:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Boscan
The comp that comes to mind is Jair Jurrjens. They both feature sinking fastballs thrown in the low 90s, with above-average curves and good change-ups. Boscan has better command at this point than Jurrjens had at a similar age, though. A better statistical line as well.
I expect Boscan to put up a similar pitching line as Jurrjens did when he was a 19 year old in the Midwest League in 2005.
by jparks77 on Oct 4, 2008 1:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I think Jurrjens has a slider instead of a curve, but yeah.
If Boscan develops the same kind of velocity as Jurrjens I’d be pretty happy.
by LiamP on Oct 4, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you going to talk about some of the hitters?
Go Rangers!
by rooster on Oct 4, 2008 3:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Questions...
Mr. Parks,
You opened the door:
1) Did you see Reinier Bermudez pitch? I heard that his fastball hits 97 MPH. I guess that since Bermudez was at Fall Instructionals, his visa issues have been settled, right?
2) Last year Geuris Grullon started four games and came in as a reliever in nine games. This year, he started just once and was a reliever in his 13 other appearances. Do you see this Grullon as a starter at any point?
3) Is Fabio Castillo staying in the bullpen, or will he get another shot as a starter?
4) Was Jacob Brigham pitching at Fall Instructionals after missing all of the 2008 season due to Tommy John Surgery?
Oh, and thanks for posting what you saw, and I look forward to reading anything else you have on the subject.
Republican or Democrat? You mean I have to pick just one? But what if I love violence AND hate liberty?
by YourNameHere on Oct 4, 2008 4:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Answers
1) I didn’t see Reinier Bermudez.
2) Grullon needs to correct his control issues before he moves back into a rotation.
3) I haven’t heard anything official, but I think Castillo will be given more opportunities to start.
4) Brigham was there and working out. I didn’t see him throw.
by jparks77 on Oct 4, 2008 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks...
Thanks for the answers.
I was also curious if Tim Murphy was around at Fall Instructionals. When you, Jason Cole, Mike Hindman, and Scott Lucas did your Top-20 Lists at the Dallas Morning News Blog, all of you included Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Michael Main, Martin Perez, Blake Beavan, Neil Ramirez, Wilfredo Boscan, Wilmer Font, Tommy Hunter, Eric Hurley and Omar Poveda. I was curious if Tim Murphy’s name entered the discussion. When Baseball America ranked its Top-20 Prospects in the Northwest League, Murphy was listed at number 8. Since Perez was at 2, Ramirez was at 4, and Boscan was at 6, I wanted to know if Murphy’s name deserves to be mentioned as close to those guys in your Top-20. Do you disagree with Baseball America’s Top-20 for the Northwest League? Was there a significant decline in talent in the Northwest League after Boscan?
Republican or Democrat? You mean I have to pick just one? But what if I love violence AND hate liberty?
by YourNameHere on Oct 5, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reviewing your Top20 at the DMN Rangers blog
and I have a few questions. Hopefully you won’t mind sharing your thought process for:
(1) Ranking Main 8 slots higher than Kiker. Both pitchers have three potentially plus pitches and excellent K-rates.
(2) Ranking Perez six slots above Boscan. I suspect it is an age thing, but Boscan’s professional production has been significantly better than Perez’.
(3) Ranking Borbon ahead of Beltre.
by spurdynasty on Oct 4, 2008 7:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Answers
1) I simply think Main is a much better pitcher with much better stuff. That’s not a knock on Kasey. Main is just a very special arm.
2) Nothing to do with age (well, not much anyway). Perez, like Main, is simply a very special pitcher. He has the raw stuff, the intelligence and the work ethic to become one of the top prospects in baseball in a short amount of time. Both arms will be moving up on my updated list that I will produce with Joey on BTiA.
3) That was a tough one. I’ll explain in more detail in part 2 when I cover both players. Basically, I choose to go with reality vs ceiling, although I’m actually quite high on Borbon’s skill set. I think he is going to be a better major leaguer than people think.
by jparks77 on Oct 4, 2008 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Jason
Am I correct in assuming that you are of the opinion that Feliz, Holland, Main, and Perez all have ace potential? Do you think that there are other pitchers that are likely to join that group? Font or NeRa, perhaps?
by spurdynasty on Oct 4, 2008 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ace is a strong word
I think each of those pitchers need to significantly improve aspects of their game in order to classify as having “ace” potential. I guess it’s just semantics, but I tend to prefer the distinction, “top of the rotation”, because I think legit aces are the rarest thing in baseball.
The next arms to join that group….? Good question. I think it will be a player we aren’t expecting. I think it will be an arm like Castillo or Pimentel. A player with tremendous raw stuff that just has the light go on.
by jparks77 on Oct 4, 2008 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is this "Ace" you speak of?
A bunch of midgets with no arms could pitch better than us. -iorange555
by boomer1 on Oct 4, 2008 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would put my money
on NeRa. But I have nothing to base that on, beyond the scouting reports I have read.
by clark on Oct 4, 2008 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My guess is Boscan
my two most fave stats with the minor leaguers are k/ip and k/bb. I know Jamey Newberg will call me a super dumb idiot-boy and passive aggressively mock me for days on end for talking about prospects based on stats when I haven’t seen them, but I like using stats. They’re nice. Stats don’t give you the whole picture, but they’ll good at highlighting some guys who have a greater than average chance at really breaking out as they move up.
Case in point: Boscan posted a 70k/69.1ip and 70k/11bb in ’08 in Spokane.
The first stat is good. Any time you can get more than K per inning, you’re doing pretty darn well, even though that rate will inevitably drop as he moves up. That second stat, however, is unpossibly great. 70/11? That’s silly.
For reference, ‘08 breakout king Derek "Don’t Call Me ‘Dutch’ Cause Brian C. Thomas Doesn’t Think It’s Clever Enough" Holland gave us an indication this season might be coming by posting a 83k/67ip and 83k/21bb ratio in Spokane in ’07.
I’m intrigued by NeRa’s potential, as his 52k/44ip ratio is pretty nice. But his 52k/29bb ratio gives me night terrors. I like to see a minimum of 2:1 ratio in that stat, and NeRa doesn’t deliver it. That’s not to say he can’t or won’t breakout, it’s just to say that I don’t see the statistical markers that would lead me to believe he’s gonna breakout next season. If he can get the walks down a little, though, he could shoot up the list pretty darn fast. He’s supposedly got off the charts stuff.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 5, 2008 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you, Dirk
Boscan’s uncanny combination of strong K-rate, outstanding control, and excellent groundball rate as an 18 yo is remarkably rare. As noted above, I’ve racked my brain for a good comp and as near as I can tell, it does not exist. I appreciate the Jurrjens suggestion from above, but Jurrjens K-rate has always been average at-best. Trevor Cahill is another near-comp, but his walk-rate is more than double what Boscan has posted in his two years of professional baseball. Given his unique and outstanding statistical profile, I’ve got Boscan at #4 on my personal Rangers pitching prospect list.
Dirk: Do you have your season tickets for Hickory yet? I am anxious to read your scouting reports of Boscan, Perez, and NeRa.
In an attempt to spark a discussion, my ten favorite Rangers prospects going into 2009 are:
- Holland
- Feliz
- Main
- Boscan
- Perez
- Hurley
- Kiker
- Poveda
- NeRa
- Font
by spurdynasty on Oct 5, 2008 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Jurrjens comp
had more to do with physical similarities than statistical ones. They both have have a similar arsenal of pitches and pitch strengths, although as I mentioned, Boscan had the superior statistical line at a similar age. I do however think Jurrjens’ stat line as a 19 year old in A ball represents a realistic expectation for Boscan.
As for Boscan, I’m hesitant to expect a “Holland like break-out” in ‘09 (not that you suggested as much). Part of Holland’s break-out was aided by his physical maturity. Boscan is still very young and has yet to grow into his frame. He stands about 6’2’’, but I doubt he weighs over 165 lbs.
As he continues to physically mature he is no doubt going to face several different periods of adjustment. His work ethic is so good that I have no concerns about his ability to accept these adjustments, merely suggesting that he isn’t the pitcher he is going to be. It might take a few years before the “real” Boscan shows up. That’s a scary thought considering how good he already is.
by jparks77 on Oct 5, 2008 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
More on Boscan
Jason: In your write-up of Boscan, you stated, “He might not ever be considered a "top of the rotation pitcher," but I think he has what it takes to be a very good Major League player..”
I am curious what metrics you use to identify a “top of the rotation pitcher.” And where, in your opinion, does/will Boscan come up short in achieving that status as a prospect?
by spurdynasty on Oct 5, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Top of the rotation"
It’s my feeling that Boscan is going to be more of a groundball/pitch to weak contact pitcher that has respectable, but not exceptional K rates. That’s not a knock on Boscan. I think he is an incredible talent that has a very good chance of not only making it to the majors, but to have success once he gets there.
Of course, the projection I just described could be considered top of the rotation by some. It’s semantics. I just think his skill set points to a pitcher that will be able to eat innings and keep runs off the board without relying on an overpowering fastball or grotesque K rates to do so. If that is “top of the rotation”, then I think he fits in that category.
I personally think of playoff scenarios when I consider who fits the “top of the rotation” distinction. I ask myself if I would want this guy to take the hill in game 1 of a playoff series.
Ultimately, this is a silly exercise. Projections often get thrown out of the window and that is especially true when dealing with 18 year olds with only short-season stats and limited scouting reports to go on. Meaning, that I reserve the right to change my mind when other data because available. ;)
by jparks77 on Oct 5, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"considered"
I took that to mean (and I agree that it’s likely) Boscan won’t ever be the favorite of those who rank prospects. He’ll always be viewed as a mid-rotation guy but might end up being like a John Lackey, who didn’t get a ton of “he’s an ace” talk on his way up because of underwhelming K rates.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Oct 5, 2008 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Holland like Break-Out
Yah, those are very rare. The fact that we had two crazy breakout pitching prospects this year boggles my mind. We could go a decade and not see another pitching prospect explode onto the scene like Feliz and Holland did this season.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 5, 2008 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Season tix?
Heh. Hickory’s about 2 hours each way, so I don’t think season tix are gonna happen, but I’ll make it to more than few games, and certainly I’ll be there front and center when they make their trip to Greenville, SC (where I live). I’m going to try to get some video, though I’m guessing I’m gonna have to be pretty sly about it since I doubt they let people videotape. Without a doubt though I’m going to get some good photos and post whatever photos/impressions I can get.
About you list: Did you forget about Beavan, or just don’t like him that much? Either way it’s scary that you just made a top ten pitching prospects list that didn’t have Beavan, Robbie Ross, Tim Murphy, Joe Wieland, Kennil Gomez and Fabio Castillo. I mean… Wow.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 5, 2008 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hickory and Beavan
I didn’t realize you were two hours from Hickory. That is very disappointing news; I was really looking forward to the weekly A-ball updates from the Dirkatron.
Regarding Beavan, I didn’t forget him. His lost velocity and low K-rate have pushed him to #11 for me. As with the other pitchers you listed (+Hunter, Diamond, O’Campo, Jones, Garr), I remain very interested to see how Beavan progresses next year. But the Rangers Top10 pitching prospects is going to become an increasingly difficult nut to crack.
by spurdynasty on Oct 5, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your list
For me that top 5 is pretty close, and separated from the 2nd 5, with Font and Ramirez having the best chance at closing the gap next season. Beavan, though, I think you’re underrating. I think he has as much chance to succeed as Kiker, and certainly as Poveda. Adair’s comments in MJH’s interview cemented my opinion on that.
In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.
by t ball on Oct 5, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree on Beavan
He’s sort of the anti-NeRa.
His k/ip ain’t that great (73k/121ip), but he has fantastic control so his k/bb ratio ended up sterling anyway (73k/20bb).
If Beavan can bring those K numbers up even just a little he could be truly special. And if they don’t… then you’re still looking at a guy who strikes out enough to get by, walks no one, and keeps the ball on the ground. A Derek Lowe starter kit I’d call him.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
by thedirkatron on Oct 5, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kiker/Poveda vs Beavan
As recently as a few weeks ago, I had Beavan ahead of Poveda and neck-and-neck with Kiker. Based on no information, I had convinced myself that Beavan was featuring a 2-seamer in Clinton which had reduced his velocity and increased his groundball rate. Jason mentioned a couple of days ago that Beavan was throwing ~90MPH at FIL and that he was throwing a 4-seamer. That was a revelation for me and suggests that Beavan has legitimately lost pace on his fastball.
If Beavan doesn’t get his 4-seamer back into the mid-90’s, then he’s unlikely to miss enough bats to dominate opponents at the higher levels. In my opinion, that would make Beavan Tommy Hunter, Part 2. I like Tommy Hunter but I would not rank him among the ten best pitching prospects in the Rangers system.
As for Kiker and Poveda, they are both legitimate three pitch pitchers despite being just a year older than Beavan. While neither prospect can match Beavan’s control, they both miss a lot more bats. And they survived Bakersfield. I really hate Bakersfield.
by spurdynasty on Oct 5, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't the Fall Instructional League
a series of simulated games? And it’s from rookie through High A level? I would think the Arizona Fall League games which is up next is more important.
by seasmurf on Oct 5, 2008 9:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well you're wrong
AFL only involves six players from any given organization. Look at the six involved from the Rangers and compare them with all of the players involved in FIL.
by Brett Perryman on Oct 6, 2008 7:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
two players Chad Tracy and John Whittleman come to mind. Which those to never get the attention thats due.
I don’t think I’m wrong about this. The Fall Instructs are really nothing. Why are you trying to defend a series of simul;ated games from rookie level to High A?
by seasmurf on Oct 7, 2008 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question(s)
Do you know what a simulated game is? Why do you continue to belittle the fall instructional league?
by jparks77 on Oct 8, 2008 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not trying to belittle the intructs
I just think some of you blow this fall instructional way out of proportion when it comes to evaluating talent. I don’t think it’s the best at evaluating talent. But appreantly you and others think it’s the best.
by seasmurf on Oct 9, 2008 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Part II??
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Oct 7, 2008 9:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Part 2
should it really be all that interesting? Jason Parks did a great job on the Fall Instructional League Report. But, seriously I think most are more interested in the Arizona Fall League
by seasmurf on Oct 7, 2008 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes we are. I rest my case
Arizona Fall League.
Oh. nevermind. Nobody here is following the players we have in the AFL. Screw the AFL this year. Lets get all excited about the Fall Instructs
by seasmurf on Oct 9, 2008 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who are you?
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 8, 2008 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
...should be dropping Saturday, I think...
Jason’s come down with the flu. We were originally shooting for a Wednesday release but that’s been all but ruled out.
by Joey Matschulat on Oct 7, 2008 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason, Joey, FYI, but half the time I try and post a comment on your site it just ignores me like I am Longhorn at da Club
Last week I took a pleasure trip. I drove my wife to the airport.
by Brian Thomas on Oct 8, 2008 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's showing that your comment went through
I deleted the earlier duplicate one that evidently got chewed up. We both appreciate your kind words.
by Joey Matschulat on Oct 8, 2008 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
More Instructs
Jason Cole’s instructional league observations. Great stuff.
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=324&f=4063&t=3164191
by jparks77 on Oct 10, 2008 8:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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