Playing Time for Boggs

by Excel Hearts Choi on Nov 10, 2008 9:56 AM CST

On Sunday night, Adam linked to an article which says the Rangers should trade for Crisp. While this would seemingly improve the OF defense, Adam states doing so would make things rather complicated as there are a number in-house candidates for the OF positions. From the Sunday Night Linkaliciousness post:

...[Crisp] would just seem to further complicate an outfield situation where you've got Hamilton as a given, and then Nelson Cruz, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, and Brandon Boggs vying for playing time, with John Mayberry Jr. and Julio Borbon waiting in the wings.

However, I wonder about how much the Rangers should base their offseason plans on Brandon Boggs. A lot of this comes down to strikeouts. In their Season Awards Recap, the Hardball Times gave the Steve Balboni Award (terrible K rate) to Andruw Jones. Brandon Boggs was an honorable mention.

Now strikeouts are a pretty contentious subject around here. For those who ignore high K rates, this can be done if other, more valuable offensive skills are in place. Using the stats compiled by the Hardball Times, I came up with a list of the top ten players by K's. These players meet the "Qualified" criteria, which is a certain number of plate appearances. Since Boggs did not get as much playing time, I am only using rate stats as a comparison. The players used for this comparison are Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard, Jack Cust, Dan Uggla, Carlos Pena, Chris B. Young, Matt Kemp, Jim Thome, Ryan Ludwick, and Mike Cameron.

K/AB

When looking at these eleven players by their K rates, Boggs ranks 4th on this list behind Cust, Reynolds, and Pena.

OBP

In terms of getting on base, Boggs ranked eighth. Only Cameron, Reynolds, and Young were worse.

SLG

Boggs ranked dead last here. The next player (Young) had a 44 point difference. Boggs was nearly 200 points behind Ludwick (ranked first) in this category.

OPS

Boggs is again last. This time, however, the gap, which is 25 points, shrinks between him and Young.

To recap, Boggs is up with the MLB leaders in terms of his K rate, but lags behind (in some instances by a significant amount) these other players in key offensive categories. The counterpoint to my critique of Boggs is, of course, sample size. If only Boggs got more AB's then he would not look so bad when compared to those full-time players. In 2009, can the Rangers afford to give Boggs significant playing time at the major league level? Literally, he is hitting just over his weight (.226 vs. 205 lbs.). I'd be disappointed if the Rangers kept Boggs on the 25-man roster. Adding a few more hits would add a lot in terms of value. Boggs had a .303 BA/BIP for the season, so it is not as if he had an "unlucky" year. He just needs to put some more balls in play, which means cutting down on his K rate. Doing so would also bump him up the list in terms of OBP. As for SLG, Boggs came up as a CF'er, so I don't put much into the fact that he did not slug as high as Carlos Pena. The Rangers have plenty of offense, what they need is some defense. As a LF'er, Boggs made 33 plays out of zone. Boggs could very well end up as a starting OF'er for the Rangers, but he needs consistent playing time to work on making contact. This can only happen in AAA. As for Adam's original point, the OF is still crowded with or without Boggs.

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I'm all for him in AAA everyday

as an emergency 4th OF for the big club, in case of serious injury to someone. It’ll be good for him to get to play everyday. It will be interesting to see what happens if JMJ makes strides in the minors if he gets a shot with the big club at the expense of Boggs.

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by Maximilian on Nov 10, 2008 11:13 AM CST reply actions

AAA is getting crowded

Does Boggs deserve the PT over Borbon?

Also, wth didn’t Boggs get any time in CF in ’08?

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
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by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 11:37 AM CST reply actions

Boggs

It looks to me like the Rangers have decided CF is not the position for him.

Unless we sign a veteran OFer to be the 4th OF Boggs will be on the big squad.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions

AAA is getting crowded

Does Boggs deserve the PT over Borbon?

Also, wth didn’t Boggs get any time in CF in ’08?

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
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by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 11:37 AM CST reply actions

WTF?

I only hit Post once, I promise.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions

We get the point

"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst

by inactive lsb user on Nov 10, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions

Boggs

The guy was rushed to the bigs last season and probably should have spent the entire season at AAA. He had a breakthrough year in AA back in 2007 and everyone was all over his jock wanting him to be the starting CFer before we got Hamilton. He is a nice 4th OFer and had flashes but just like with Duran needs more time. Right now it looks like he will almost be assured of being in the majors as the 4th OFer next year which is a shame. Unless we sign a veteran OFer to be that guy we are looking at an OF of Hamilton, Byrd, Murphy, and Boggs.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 11:38 AM CST reply actions

Cruz

You’re not considering him as part of the OF picture?

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by Maximilian on Nov 10, 2008 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

Zoinks!

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions

I knew I was forgetting someone

The whole time I was typing I had that feeling I was leaving someone out. I figured it was Bradley. Doh

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions

Yep

When I clicked on this post I was worried that you were going to be advocating playing him every day… I agree with everything here. Boggs was a useful guy to have around last year since the rest of our outfield had injury problems. But I’m content to go into the season with others in the OF. At the same time, his presence allows us to be able to trade Byrd without worrying too much.

Boggs wasn’t a disappointment last year, but he didn’t really show much that suggests he should be assured a job next season. If he tears up Arizona, showing some power in ST, maybe you go into April with him on the roster, particularly if one of the other OF options is beat up or injured. But I’d prefer to see him get ABs in AAA.

by JBImaknee on Nov 10, 2008 11:39 AM CST reply actions

So

I assume the concensus is that Murphy has earned the spot in LF over Boggs 100% of the time? Is Murphy really going to be the 3rd outfielder? (All things equal; no signings, no trade for OFers.)

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by FuturePants on Nov 10, 2008 11:45 AM CST reply actions

Platoon?

Boggs has killed lefties in the past. Although they may want to give Murph more of a chance at getting better v/lefties.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 11:50 AM CST up reply actions

Most of the time

I think against righties he is the man and I would play him against some lefties. He wasn’t atrocious against lefties but against the good lefty starters I would sit him and play Boggs.

Boggs will get plenty of playing time. When Hammy needs days off from the field he will play, when Byrd needs days off he will play. They may not be consistant ABs which can be argued that he needs but he should get 400 or so ABs this year, if we only have those 4 OFers.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 11:50 AM CST up reply actions

did anybody notice that Boggs was one of the best OF defenders in the ML?

We all say that we want to improve the defense, but when we have an excellent defender, it seems that nobody wants him in the lineup.

I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.

by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 12:01 PM CST reply actions

I was going to say pretty much

the same thing, but couldn’t find the stats to back it up.

by Keynes on Nov 10, 2008 12:03 PM CST up reply actions

based on what

is he one of the best OF defenders in the ML?

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-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 10, 2008 1:01 PM CST up reply actions

dewans +/-

top 10 (I think 6th or 7th) among LF, and I think you could extrapolate based on his limited playing time that he probably would have been #1 overall with regular PT.

I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.

by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 1:17 PM CST up reply actions

thanks

Since LF isn’t exactly easy in the Ballpark, wouldn’t having him stay in LF be better for the team. His arm would be put to use more as a LF than if he was just in CF and we already have Byrd who can play a good CF and Borbon on the way.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 10, 2008 6:42 PM CST up reply actions

Based on watching him play...

…he’s damn good. Gets a good jump and takes a good route to the ball. Has a great arm and maximizes it by catching the ball and getting into position to make a strong throw. Excellent defensive player.

613photo

by Black Francis on Nov 10, 2008 4:45 PM CST up reply actions

I agree

I think he should be getting time in CF, because his defensive skills seem like they would play well there. For all the talk about Coco Crisp and his defensive prowess, I’m not at all sure that he is any better of an OF defender than my man Boggs.

I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.

by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 4:52 PM CST up reply actions

I like Boggs

And it may take a move trading Byrd or Murphy to promote him to regular status. It’s not significant in any overall view of Boggs, but just from watching I’d guess that the percentage of his throws that resulted in outs last year was really high. Boggs in left and Cruz in right makes it like putting up a stop sign at each base.

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by Ed Coffin on Nov 10, 2008 6:41 PM CST up reply actions

Ah, the symmetry.

by inactive lsb user on Nov 11, 2008 9:03 AM CST up reply actions

i think, ideally, the best OF situation would be

vs. LHP

LF Byrd
CF Hamilton
RF Cruz

vs. RHP

LF Murphy
CF Hamilton
RF Cruz or Byrd (ride the hot hand)

Boggs has little value in my mind. He’ll be 26, but he’s never really shown anything to me (even in the minors) that suggest he’ll be anything above a 4th OF.

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by willamos2 on Nov 10, 2008 1:20 PM CST reply actions

I love Boggs

as our 5th outfielder.. I don’t expect to see Cat with a roster spot over Boggs, especially with Davis and Blalock.

by octoberty on Nov 10, 2008 1:21 PM CST reply actions

I think...

…he has enough promise that you want him playing every day, not sitting on the bench.

613photo

by Black Francis on Nov 10, 2008 4:42 PM CST up reply actions

I guess so

I just really like him on the big club.

by octoberty on Nov 10, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions

Boggs is perfect

as minor league injury replacement. He fields pretty well, and its probably too early to make a call on his bat.

As far as K’s or other stats, it would be tough to get past the whole small sample size and first time up thingie.

I don’t see us having a crowded enough house in AAA that it would cause any problems stashing him there.

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by DJCahill on Nov 10, 2008 1:25 PM CST reply actions

1 one word. fielding

by Save us on Nov 10, 2008 3:44 PM CST reply actions

So...

11 words?

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions

11?

by Save us on Nov 10, 2008 4:49 PM CST up reply actions

x

1 one word

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 5:18 PM CST up reply actions

smart ass

by Save us on Nov 10, 2008 6:08 PM CST up reply actions

Beats the opposite...

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 6:12 PM CST up reply actions

Could have also been

11 fielders … Boggs counts as two.

/Snicker

by inactive lsb user on Nov 11, 2008 9:05 AM CST up reply actions

Where are these guys playing in 2009?

If the Rangers were to have Brandon Boggs at Triple-A in 2009, I imagine they’d want him playing everyday. So where does everyone think these guys will be:

John Mayberry Jr. (I imagine the Rangers won’t expose him to the Rule 5 Draft)
Ben Harrison (If not lost in Rule 5 Draft)
Craig Gentry
Julio Borbon
Steve Murphy (If not lost in the Rule 5 Draft)
Chad Tracy (Is he playing first base or left field?)
Grant Gerrard
Mitch Moreland (Is he playing first base or right field? Closer?)
Tim Smith
Engel Beltre

I figure that Mayberry is a regular at Oklahoma City unless he surprisingly breaks camp with the Rangers. He played first base at Stanford, and then played there four times for the Redhawks in 2008… Harrison is hitting .307/.381/.520 for the Tiburones de La Guaira in the Venezuelan Winter League… Beltre hit .295/.321/.407 in the second half of 2008 with Clinton. I wonder if he’s going to be playing for Bakersfield or Hickory at the beginning of next year.

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by YourNameHere on Nov 10, 2008 4:39 PM CST reply actions

AAA OF

I’d bet on Boggs-Borbon-Mayberry in OKC.

And Beltre and Smith in Bakersfield.

Moreland intriques me as a power lefty in the pen, and according to reports he was pitching exclusively at Instructs.

The rest of those names are probably career minor leaguers, in my estimation.

I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.

by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 4:50 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks...

Thanks. I’m trying to get some predictions on what the outfield situations will be throughout the system in 2009. I figure that John Mayberry and Julio Borbon will be at Triple-A. And if Ben Harrison is still around, they’d want him hitting. Mayberry has played first before, and there is the DH, so that could be fine.

I’m curious though, why move Mitch Moreland to the bullpen— where I imagine he’d be if he’s converted to a pitcher— after he hit .324/.400/.536 this year for Clinton?

I’d also like to know why everyone is so down on Chad Tracy. At Bakersfield, he struggled initially the first two months of 2008, then:

June: 102 PA .326/.402/.528
July: 136 PA .292/.368/.542
August 25 PA .417/.440/.875

And then when Tracy went to Frisco, over 24 games, he hit .344/.386/.505.

Can you believe it? They're bringing back the Five Dollar Footlong. That's right, the Legendary Depression-Era Porn Star is back!!!

by YourNameHere on Nov 10, 2008 5:10 PM CST up reply actions

Chad Tracy

Professional ~~blogger~~ hitter.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 5:23 PM CST up reply actions

Oh, Ben.

You were gonna be a real plaer until those injuries hit…sigh.

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 5:20 PM CST up reply actions

*

player

"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 5:21 PM CST up reply actions

correction

playa

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 10, 2008 6:44 PM CST up reply actions

Boggs

He’s a terrific outfielder. Cannon arm. He didn’t spend much time at AAA, so I wouldn’t mind seeing him go back. At every stop in the minors he did K a lot but he also got on base. I think he could use some time at AAA.

613photo

by Black Francis on Nov 10, 2008 4:41 PM CST reply actions

Pics

a lot of great pics on your site. I know nothing about photography, but those are some well composed shots. I especially like all the architectural ones, the buildings, etc. with lots of texture.

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by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 11:55 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks

I appreciate that. Somehow my site came up during one of the political threads and I noticed that a lot of people went over an looked at several photos, so I thought others might be interested.

613photo

by Black Francis on Nov 11, 2008 8:35 AM CST up reply actions

Very cool site

impressive work

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by Dirk Diggler on Nov 11, 2008 8:46 AM CST up reply actions

Thanks.

613photo

by Black Francis on Nov 11, 2008 4:31 PM CST up reply actions

Agree with the conclusion - probably not the methodology

Howard, Thome, Pena, etc., are probably not the best comps (which you concede at the end). I’d say they have high K rates because they have high slugging and OBP. That’s almost like looking at Pierre’s tiny K rate and saying he’s an incredible player.

But yeah, his Ks are troubling but like you said, small sample size and very good defense.

Nothing pithy here. Please move long.

by WyoRanger on Nov 10, 2008 5:38 PM CST reply actions