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Some guy's top 101 prospect list

Someone over at Minor League Ball posted his top 101 prospect list, with comments...

Given that things are slow, and given that there are quite a few Rangers prospects mentioned, I figured it is worth a link and a look...

Check it out...

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I saw that a few minutes ago

He seems to really undervalue Rangers prospects….

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Nov 10, 2008 10:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm no prospect guru

But having Feliz at #18 and Holland all the way down at #33 seems kind of stupid to me. Those two should be right there with each other.

A Lonestar in California

Just say no to Scott Olsen.

by lonestarJon on Nov 10, 2008 10:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He has them both pegged incorrectly...

What’s the question of durability with Feliz? He’s said to have an effortless delivery. Holland he incorrectly drew a conclusion based on a ranking that was from single A and I believe Manuel said that he’d been much higher on the AA list of prospects. Also, the comment on Perez was simply praise rather then diminishing Holland’s value.

by slimshadty12 on Nov 10, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Feliz

Yeah the guy really shows his lack of knowledge on prospects when he says Feliz has durability issues. He is basing that strictly on his innings per start. Nevermind the fact that Feliz jumped about 100 innings from the last two years to this year and the Rangers practically shut him down the last 6 weeks of the season before the playoffs.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 11:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Feliz

His durability issues are sort of like the difference between bad credit and no credit. He hasn’t proven that he doesn’t have durability, but you have to still wonder if he will at this point.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 12:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That list has no love for the Rangers

I take it he doesn’t see this as a top 2 system even. Feliz at 18 and Holland at 33 is wrong. At least he ranked Holland this time around though. The last time, he didn’t think Holland was worth anything in the top 50.

Why is Andrus at 62??? Its amazing how much he has lost in some of the rankings I’ve seen. His OPS dropped 25 points between high A and AA, but he is still just 20 years old right now!!! How did he go from the 19th ranked prospect in baseball (according to BA) yet is now 62 on that guy’s list?

And then Beltre is ranked at 66 which totally throws me off. The potential is there, but if you have question marks on Neftali Feliz doing everything right statistically in AA, why rank Beltre that high.

And raise your hands if Main or Max Ramirez don’t rank ahead of Julio Borbon on any of your prospect rankings. I don’t know enough about the rest of the prospects in baseball, but as far as the Rangers go, I don’t think he did a good job at all.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 10, 2008 10:33 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Main

I think we need to give people a bit of a break on him. You wouldn’t be this critical as of information from, like, August…or at least you shouldn’t have been. Most people outside of our Rangers bubble haven’t had the opportunity to read what Jason and Mike and Jamey have said about Main in FIL, and for that matter, FIL is often wisely discounted because folks are prone to get overexcited about guys based on it. Leyson Septimo was the star of instructs last fall, or one of the top few. Did you hear one word said about him this year, other than how he had really, really bad control problems?

Also, I certainly have Ramirez ahead of Borbon in my mind, but I don’t think it’s ridiculous for someone to not.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 12:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Its not necessarily that Main isn't in the top 100

but its seeing Borbon ranked so far ahead of him, and especially Ramirez being so far down on the list and beneath Borbon I think is ridiculous.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 10, 2008 1:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I’m pretty sure that Ramirez won’t be on BA’s list, and Borbon might sneak in (though I kind of doubt it).

I agree that Borbon being ahead of Main is stupid at this point.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 1:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Borbon

I was just looking at the mid-season community prospect rankings that had Borbon ahead of Holland (who was 14th).

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I did not think that Feliz had durability concerns.

He has the one of the easiest throwing motions that I have ever seen and I thought he just had been limited on innings b/c of age.

by CRUSHDAVIS on Nov 10, 2008 10:36 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Just please

Don’t let Nolan read that.

by Keynes on Nov 10, 2008 11:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Inevitable Backlash

Anyone who has visited that site somewhat regularly over the last year should have noticed a lot of Rangers love going on. Derek Holland was championed pretty heavily during his rise, and Smoak somehow went from being drafted 11th to being the second most highly ranked player from that draft on some of their lists, behind only Buster.

I agree that his ranking of Neftali vs Holland makes little sense. A lefty with advanced secondary stuff is at least on par with a righty whose main asset is an easy high 90’s fastball, if not ahead, by standard logic.

But while he appears bearish on Max and Holland, he is also more bullish on Borbon than we have previously seen. And with Main, the general baseball fan would have no way of adhering to the hype we have seen around Main since instructs. His inclusion in the “just missed” list was surprising, at least to me. I think he shoots to the top 50 next season, but this offseason I doubt we see him in many top 100s, especially from people who are not “plugged in.”

by clark on Nov 10, 2008 10:38 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

8 in the top 100

isn’t bad. But I’d include Teagarden to give us 9, and place Vallejo and Beavan on the “fringe” list

"Calmer than you are... "

by Walter Sobchak on Nov 10, 2008 10:39 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Teagarden

lost his prospect status, I believe, using this guy’s criteria.

by clark on Nov 10, 2008 10:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

either that

or he was recently kicked in the head by a horse.

by clark on Nov 10, 2008 10:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Vallejo

I don’t think he belongs anywhere near the top 100.

by jparks77 on Nov 10, 2008 11:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

And I like Vallejo a lot.

by Keynes on Nov 10, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you're probably right

and I felt that way about Duran a year ago…but I find a guy with top-end speed and good defense at 2B to be pretty valuable, and I think if Duran had 2B open in the majors he’d be on his way to proving himself worthy of a prior fringe top 100 ranking

but I’m no expert

"Calmer than you are... "

by Walter Sobchak on Nov 10, 2008 11:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Butchered the meme a bit there, no?

Shouldn’t it be ‘Newberg will make all your base be belong to him’?

by Keynes on Nov 10, 2008 12:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

uh

“… all your base are belong to him”

/horse dead

by bushe on Nov 10, 2008 12:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

'Will make are you base are belong to him'

 I think you have to switch ‘are’ to ‘be’ given that he preceded the it with ‘will’.

But I see your point in preserving the original mistranslation.

by Keynes on Nov 10, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Doe!

I mean, wait….

D’oh!

There, at least I got that one right ;)

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.

by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 12:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A deer?

A female deer?

by Keynes on Nov 10, 2008 12:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

AH YES!

That’s the episode where Bart gets an Elephant (Stampy), one of my all time favorites. A great line from Homer about the ivory dealer who wants to buy Stampy: “Lisa, a guy who has lots of ivory is less likely to hurt Stampy than a guy whose ivory supplies are low.”

Also in that episode, Homer begins to sink in quick sand and says, “First reach in and pull my arms out… Next I’ll pull my arms out with my face”.

Brilliant.

"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.

by Haeger Champ on Nov 10, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

wow... butchered that

(and I can tell it’s driving you all nuts)

Homer says, “First I’ll reach in and pull my legs out. Next I’ll pull my arms out with my face.”

There, that should do it! Now, let the rec’s commence. (I joke)

"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.

by Haeger Champ on Nov 10, 2008 2:12 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

REC

"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst

by Chase Irwin on Nov 10, 2008 5:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll give him one

for persistence, if nothing else.

I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.

by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 7:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

also,

interesting to read his comments on Bowden, coming from a Red Sox fan. This guy has always been young for his league and enjoyed pretty nice stats, including a dominant run in the most hitter friendly park in professional baseball. So he must having something going for him…

by clark on Nov 10, 2008 10:41 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

me too

I think Bowden has somehow become underrated.

by clark on Nov 10, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, after seeing how all over the place he was on our guys

I tend to take his other scouting reports and rankings with a grain of salt as well, but yeah, maybe we are underrating Bowden a bit. I do know soxprospects.com had him as their prospect of the year or something.

FWIW, I liked Bowden better than Masterson right fromt the start, personally.

A Lonestar in California

Just say no to Scott Olsen.

by lonestarJon on Nov 10, 2008 10:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It is funny...

…who would have thought, last year at this time, that people would be pissed because Derek Holland was only ranked 38th on a national top 100 prospect list?

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2008 10:42 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

the same could be said

for Feliz. He was a pretty big wild going into last season. I think some people take his explosion for granted, but I know the Braves don’t.

by clark on Nov 10, 2008 10:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Feliz, though...

There was a lot more buzz about him at this point last season than there was about Holland. Holland came out of nowhere.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2008 11:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

true

I hope he doesn’t disappear back into nowhere.

it’d be VERY nice to have a lefty that throws gas and has two other good offerings in our ballpark for the long term

"Calmer than you are... "

by Walter Sobchak on Nov 10, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

He made a lot of money when he signed, and then played well in SPO.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Nov 10, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Holland

Last offseason, Jamey had him ranked #40.

He was behind, among others, Johnny Whittleman, Brennan Garr, Omar Beltre, Danny Ray Herrera, and Michael Schlact.

Feliz was #10 on Jamey’s list, and I think some folks suggested he was too low.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2008 12:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Going by rankings, he has had an abnormal rise to put it lightly.

Going by his signing bonus, it looks like the org predicted it. Plus I think he was projected to go in the first few rounds had he re-entered the draft.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Nov 10, 2008 1:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

They predicted it about like

they predict Evan Reed or Clark Murphy to. Nobody expected him to do what he did.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 1:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I find the comments here a bit funny

I might not agree with his every ranking, but really, come on folks. Saying Holland is only #33 is some kind of travesty? Personally I might rank Feliz slightly lower and Holland slightly higher, but every team’s most avid fans could probably raise a point or two as to why their guy should be higher.

This is a pretty solid list, and I think he’s judged the Rangers guys pretty fairly for someone who is not a Rangers fan.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 11:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think its funny

how he didn’t have Holland in his original top 50 at all. He pretty much put Holland there because he didn’t want to get that much crap for not having Holland as a top 50 prospect. And his reasoning for not having Holland higher is because Manuel said he is a really big Perez fan and because BA ranked him as the number 9 prospect in the Midwest league, effectively ignoring his Cal and Texas League performance.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Nov 10, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I had a good chuckle about the Perez justification there too. Didn’t really make a lot of sense.

by Keynes on Nov 10, 2008 12:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed...

I mean if you’re ranking Rangers prospects and somebody puts, let’s say Davis Stoneburner ahead of Justin Smoak, that’s bizarre. But there’s a lot of criteria that goes into evaluating prospects (age, size, scouting reports, current and historical stats, level of competition, durability, etc.) and those points of comparison can’t necessarily be viewed separately from one another. It seems some people have a hard time understanding how other people judgments don’t conform to their own.

That being said, I think RedSoxFaithful made a pretty good list. If people on this board are spending hours weekly looking over the Rangers’ Minor League System, imagine trying to do a comprehensive list regarding all 30 teams, especially when baseball is going on almost all the time, and at certain points not all players are playing. In fact, some players this guy is having to evaluate might not have played their first game professionally.

As for my opinion, of the 101 guys this list has, I’d have kicked somebody off and put Michael Main in his place. While I don’t know enough about other teams’ minor league systems, I know that at the very least I’d have Main ahead of fellow Texas Delegation Representatives Julio Borbon (#79) and Max Ramirez (#82). But I keep in mind that there’s a distinct possibility that both Borbon and Ramirez might turn out to be very good players and Michael Main doesn’t become the top-tier starting pitcher that many of us are expecting him to be.

As far as the Neftali Feliz ranked at 18 and Derek Holland at 33, there’s some question about the discrepancy there. But when you think about it, there’s 14 guys between the two on this list; that’s about 0.47 prospects per team. If you think they are neck-and-neck, I would think it possible that there are 14 other prospects of similar caliber in all of baseball. It could be that the talent level between the prospects ranked 18-33 is simply hard to differentiate. Then again, maybe using using certain criteria, it’s not quite neck-and-neck between Feliz and Holland, and there’s room for several prospects between the two.

Can you believe it? They're bringing back the Five Dollar Footlong. That's right, the Legendary Depression-Era Porn Star is back!!!

by YourNameHere on Nov 10, 2008 1:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OT - Neyer responds to EG

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3693167&name=Neyer_Rob

For those of you who love sportswriters going after each other about the GG awards….

I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles

by Dirk Diggler on Nov 10, 2008 11:11 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Ha, finally someone brought out the +/-

The very thing EG has been so carefully skirting all along.

A Lonestar in California

Just say no to Scott Olsen.

by lonestarJon on Nov 10, 2008 11:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

heh

"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst

by Chase Irwin on Nov 10, 2008 5:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think this list isn't bad

Andrus is low for me, and I can’t see ranking Tommy Hanson outside of the top 20 at this point. Some of his bottom end guys just aren’t right imo, but I’ll probably say that about BA and BP too, for different reasons.

But it’s a respectable list.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 12:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Borbon/Ellsbury comp

I had compared the minor league stats for the two players several weeks ago and was similarly pleased with how similar the profiles for the two are (save the BB’s). I think/hope that RedSoxFaithful is onto something.

by spurdynasty on Nov 10, 2008 1:37 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Save the BB's

That’s a pretty important thing, though. If Borbon could bump up that walk rate just a bit I’d be a lot more excited about him.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 1:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

That’s like saying, save being able to hit, Drew Meyer is a lot like Chase Utley.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 1:48 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Heh

Meyer and Utley may be ever so slightly farther apart than Borbon and Ellsbury.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 2:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously though

Ellsbury had a career .390 OBP in the minors. Borbon is .353. When Ellsbury dropped to a respectable .280 BA this seaosn, his OBP dropped to .336. For Borbon that’s more like .320. It’s an inescapable issue until he gets better about it.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 3:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully no clunky formatting on the way...

While you probably won’t have much difficulty finding guys who had high On-Base Percentages in the minor leagues and didn’t do much, if anything, at the Major Leagues, I don’t think the decline in Jacoby Ellsbury’s OBP is all that telling. Lot’s of guys have OBP’s in their rookie seasons that are below their minor league numbers. What I want to know is what comes next. For reference:

Curtis Granderson:
Minor Leagues- .300/.383/.497
Rookie (2005)— .272/.314/.494
2008 Season—— .280/.365/.494

Nate McLouth:
Minor Leagues- .292/.367/.427
Rookie (2006)— .233/.293/.385
2008 Season—— .276/.356/.497

Adrian Gonzalez:
Minor Leagues- .296/.365/.448
Rookie (2005)— .227/.272/.407
2008 Season—— .279/.361/.510

Xavier Nady:
Minor Leagues- .297/.368/.525
Rookie (2003)— .267/.321/.391
2008 Season—— .305/.357/.510

Justin Morneau:
Minor Leagues- .310/.378/.527
Rookie (2004)— .271/.340/.536
2008 Season—— .300/.374/.499

Ian Kinsler:
Minor Leagues- .303/.379/.500
Rookie (2006)— .286/.347/.454
2008 Season—— .319/.375/.517

Chase Utley:
Minor Leagues- .282/.357/.465
Rookie (2003)— .239/.322/.373
2008 Season—— .292/.380/.535

Nick Markakis:
Minor Leagues- .301/.380/.471
Rookie (2006)— .291/.351/.448
2008 Season—— .306/.406/.491

Can you believe it? They're bringing back the Five Dollar Footlong. That's right, the Legendary Depression-Era Porn Star is back!!!

by YourNameHere on Nov 10, 2008 4:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I don’t think it’s all that telling either. I think he’ll hit better than .280 as a veteran and get on base a lot more. But he’s got the margin of error of a decent walk rate and approach at the plate. If he manages to hit .300 and get closer to his minor league walk rate, he’ll put up a real solid OBP. If Borbon manages to approach .300 and doesn’t lose a bit off his walk rate, his will still be underwhelming. Borbon has to challenge for batting titles, improve his power by a fair amount (could happen), or improve his approach to be a positive offensive factor.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 6:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Borbon

Your attitude on Borbon is really intriguing. You obviously don’t like the guy. Theres a guy in Seattle who has a career line of .330/.370/.430 and he is not considered anywhere close to underwhelming. In fact he gets MVP votes most years.

If Borbon can come in and put up .300/.350/.400 and add in 40-50 SBs that would not be underwhelming.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 7:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Of course not

If he becomes 300/350/400 I’ll be a pretty big fan. I really want him to become that, and he seems like a great guy to have on the team. All I really ever point out is that he’s got work to do to put up a .350 OBP if he’s a .300 hitter. He’s going to have to improve his walk rate to do that, though, and how often do we just assume that a prospect is going to be a .300 hitter?

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 7:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at those numbers

It’s telling that most suffered in their rookie years — but most of them kept about the same spread from AVG to OBP. If Borbon does that he’ll have a poor OBP even if he hits .280 as a rookie. Borbon just has very little room for error. He pretty much has to hit .300.

And taken with Adam’s point below about guys w/o much power, he really needs to hit .300.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 8:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The difference is...

…that Ellsbury’s walks didn’t translate to the major league level. Which isn’t uncommon for these patient, no-pop guys.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2008 4:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The difference in what?

Ellsbury’s walk rate in the minors was a little more than one per ten official ABs (I think it was about 9.2). This year it was about one per 13.5.

Borbon is one per 18.8 this year, right at half as often as Ellsbury. Let’s say that he is able to maintain that rather than see it drop at all. He’s still going to have a worse OBP for his BA than Ellsbury by pretty close to what I said. I didn’t discount him linearly with Ellsbury. And it’s not like Ellsbury walked a ton or saw his walk rate just fall apart. He was decent in the minors but not a walk machine, and his rate didn’t fall so far that you wouldn’t think he could improve some on it and get back to the same area that his minor league number was. Borbon is just less than acceptable.

And extra power – at least based on their performance in the minors – isn’t going to account for it. He has an identical SLG to Ellsbury’s despite playing in the Texas League and Cal League only, while Ellsbury played, in addition to the Cal League, in pitchers leagues.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 6:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And I should clarify

I just said SLG. If you take isolated power:

Ellsbury SLG-BA: 426-314 = 112
Borbon SLG-BA: 425-321 = 104

by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 6:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think the little, speedy guys without much power...

…have a harder time translating high walk rates in the minors to the major league levels.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2008 7:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's fairly logical

"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst

by Chase Irwin on Nov 11, 2008 9:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Jake Arrieta at number 20-something is cool

because his brother is on the same highschool team as me.

by cashman on Nov 10, 2008 8:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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