Holliday to the A's
As you've probably seen by now, Matt Holliday has been reportedly dealt to the A's.
I wanted to hold off on posting anything about this until there was some word as to who the A's are giving up. Tim Brown says that the A's are giving up Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street, which is a strong package.
I would be disappointed if the Rangers gave up an equivalent package (although I do think Beane is selling high on Smith).
Why do this, given that the A's finished well out of first place last year?
Well, it could be that Billy Beane looks at the Angels and sees a team who well out-performed their expected won/loss record based on run differential, and could well be losing their closer and their starting first baseman. Beane could see the division as more winnable this year.
He could also be figuring that either 1) Holliday helps get the A's into contention in 2009, and then leaves and nets the A's two draft picks, or 2) Holliday doesn't get the A's into contention, but can be dealt this summer for about what the A's gave up to get him.
It also shores up the A's biggest weakness last year, which was production from the outfield.
Gutsy move. And realistically, if the Rangers' target date to contend is 2010, one that I think helps the Rangers. If the Rangers were hoping to contend in 2009...well, it just got tougher.
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142 comments
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Comments
So, does Beane think
he’s on the ‘verge of something special’ here?
Seems like he’s ‘in between’ here…
Jindal '12
by Longhorn on Nov 10, 2008 2:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Not if they are planning
on Furcal as well.
by tyd3311 on Nov 10, 2008 2:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i think Beane
saw a chance to buy a primo player at a pretty decent price. He gave up depth in his system without giving up blue chips. And now he’ll either flip Holliday at the deadline or take the 2 picks in the next draft. Not a bad move. Makes OAK a little more intimidating.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 10, 2008 2:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Blue chips
Big factor here. I could see Anderson helping them by June 2009.
Not sure who he wants to close, don’ t know their roster well.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Nov 10, 2008 2:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
One thing
I think that Carlos Gonzalez has been increasingly more likely to be a bust lately. I wonder if they didn’t just decide the same thing, since the other two are really pretty marginal assets. He’ll probably look better in Coors though.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 2:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
and just because CGon hits well in Coors doesn’t make this a bad deal for OAK. It wouldn’t be the same as, say, the DBacks trading away Quentin.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 10, 2008 2:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i wonder how this will
effect Holliday as well. He’s barely an 800 OPS guy away from Coors…
Jindal '12
by Longhorn on Nov 10, 2008 2:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh it will affect him
Changing to the harder league will, like it did Miggy Cabrera, and there is no question that he benefits from his home field. He won’t be an 800 OPS guy, though, I don’t think, and history would support that. Guys who leave Coors with big differences in their splits do tend to do better than their road split. He’s a good hitter, but I wouldnt be surprised if he’s a sub-900 OPS guy at least.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Road splits
I think some of the negative Rockies’ road splits come from not only playing away from Coors, but also playing a significant number of road games in their division at places such as San Diego, SF, and LA Dodgers. All of those places are very pitcher friendly ballparks.
by brentash on Nov 11, 2008 12:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A's package
basically equivalent to Harrison, FX2, and Andrus?
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 2:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
FX2
or CJ? Either one I guess…but yeah I think that’s comparable…
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 10, 2008 2:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no
at least, perception is that greg smith is a lot better than harrison. the other two are similar enough but i bet the deal doesn’t get done if the a’s offer harrison
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
by ab03 on Nov 10, 2008 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ehh
neither are very impressive, both made ML debuts last season with poor peripherals, but Harrison has better stuff and a couple years youth on his side. I think I’d take him over Smith personally.
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 3:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"He’s basically told himself unconsciously that he can’t be any good unless he catches 130 games a year. If he played with the baseball smarts of a guy like a David Eckstein, he’d maximize his talent and be an incredible player." - Andy Seiler, Texas Rangers Analyst
by Chase Irwin on Nov 10, 2008 4:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This is sort of like when...
…Beane got Carlos Pena, after giving up a lot to get him, and then moving him just 3 months later, having decided he wasn’t going to hack it.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
laird, ramos, jason hart, and ryan ludwick
if memory serves.
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, at the time...
…it wasn’t viewed as “nothing.”
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Havent ludwick (albeit late in the game) and Laird turned into relatively successful major leaguers?
by Michael Cave on Nov 10, 2008 3:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
If you look back on that string of events after the trade it can be effectively argued that the rangers got the better of that deal.
by Michael Cave on Nov 10, 2008 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We got Laird
They got Ted Lilly in the end.
by tyd3311 on Nov 10, 2008 3:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
In that
3 team trade they also gave up bonderman and german. Then flipped Lilly to the Jays after an effecitve yr for Kielty
by Michael Cave on Nov 10, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
basically it was nothing for nothing
but, I would say, Fuson slightly won that trade because of Laird.
Jindal '12
by Longhorn on Nov 10, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
I thought i was agreeing with you that their package was more than “nothing”.
by Michael Cave on Nov 10, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's responding to tyd
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 3:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
i just responded. My fault :-)
by Michael Cave on Nov 10, 2008 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry
misread your response man. my apologies. Damn formatting on my work computer.
by Michael Cave on Nov 10, 2008 3:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
I have no reason to think otherwise.
by tyd3311 on Nov 10, 2008 3:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Im just kidding anyway.
Laird may still turn that into a win.
by tyd3311 on Nov 10, 2008 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You are right
we also gave up the legendary mike venafro
by Michael Cave on Nov 10, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Mario Ramos
You make me sad.
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 10, 2008 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
re:
i remember when that trade went down and Jamey knew before hand and wouldn’t tell us what the trade was going to be but that it would change the AL West for the next several years.
Ahh, the good times…
Jindal '12
by Longhorn on Nov 10, 2008 3:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
just like he now knows
Crisp is flippable.
kidding…
by clark on Nov 10, 2008 3:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I spent that early morning trying to figure it out. Didn’t even come close, which is unfortunate, because I would have never guessed that freaking Mario Ramos was the pitcher that they would use the Pena chip on. My favorite guess was Juan Cruz, though that didn’t really fit with the AL West thing.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 3:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rolling the dice
I think you are right. He’s taking a gamble on this year and worst case he flips Matt for prospects or just takes the draft picks. Anything that dips into their farm system is a good thin if you ask me.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
by TheBZA on Nov 10, 2008 2:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Do you mean Beane sees the Angels...?
Physician: Primum non nocere
Batter: First, make no out
by Chad Crudup on Nov 10, 2008 2:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
This is the first time in awhile...
…that I can remember Beane trading away young guys for established talent…hitting, at that. Seems like a break from his MO, especially the last few years. Interesting.
by FuturePants on Nov 10, 2008 2:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Beane
is a master of finding market inefficiencies. This move might signal that he feels prospects in general, and specifically those that he is trading away, are over-rated.
Really his MO has been to zig when everyone else is zagging.
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not trading any prospects, though
But yeah, I think he just thinks this represents value along with a player he can really use.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, no prospects in this deal
but I think Gonzalez is similar to Salty in some ways. They were both very highly ranked prospects that have struggled and lost some value. One more horrid season from either of them and their value is almost completely down the drain.
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I'm just kidding
Gonzalez is a prospect, especially in the terms you’re using, unproven players with all of their service time left.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gonzalez
Man i think you said this earlier but to me it just seems that his swing is rather “hitchy” for a lefy swing. I think he is a good athlete that never puts it together. Honestly, giving up street, gonzalez, and smith is not bad for the A’s. I think smith was a bit overblown. Street helps the rockies but the A’s had him for sale for a while, it seems.
by Michael Cave on Nov 10, 2008 3:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
and add to that the fact that he has a poor approach and a questionable attitude/makeup. He’s talented for sure and still very young, but you have to wonder. He wasn’t exactly the consumate hitter in the upper levels of the minor leagues either.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 3:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And when he's done zig-zagging.
That’s when he zogs.
by LiamP on Nov 10, 2008 3:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bah, market inefficiency, etc.
Not every single Beane trade is some major new baseball innovation. It’s just a trade of guys he doesn’t value that much for a guy he thinks can help him this year, and/or maybe net him a couple of nice draft picks if he doesn’t.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 4:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The similarities to the CoCo-Lee deal are pretty crazy.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I find it humorous
that people so often champion his genius immediately after every deal
I'm undefeated in fights. Have I been in any? No. Thats because people know my f'ing status. Don't mess with the elite. - Miles
by Dirk Diggler on Nov 10, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s just a trade of guys he doesn’t value that much for a guy he thinks can help him this year, and/or maybe net him a couple of nice draft picks if he doesn’t.
Come on, there has to be a fancy way to classify that as a move that no mere mortal could even conceive, much less attempt.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing that sticks in my craw
is if Daniels makes the exact same trade a lot of people would be saying WTF?
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 8:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe if Daniels can put together a team so good that it loses a few divisional series here and there over a decade plus, he’ll get the leeway that Beane has so earned.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 10:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday
You think he’ll light up Arlington the way an Athletic never has before?
"Relying on the government to protect your privacy is like asking a peeping tom to install your window blinds."
by Maximilian on Nov 10, 2008 2:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Hard to top
Swisher. And that’s just off the top of my head.
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
by TheBZA on Nov 10, 2008 2:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jack Cust was the best against Texas this year.
1.118 OPS in 61 ABs vs. the Rangers. Can’t find an efficient way of narrowing it down to just TBIA games.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
by ghtd36 on Nov 10, 2008 3:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I should just dig deeper instead of being an idiot.
Oakland OPS leaders vs. Texas by year
2007: Nick Swisher (1.189)
2006: Nick Swisher (1.000)
2005: Jay Payton (!!!) (.967)
2004: Mark Kotsay (1.060)
2003: Scott Hatteberg (1.122)
2002: Eric Chavez (1.078)
2001: Jason Giambi (1.413) (!!!)
2000: Jason Giambi (1.288)
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
by ghtd36 on Nov 10, 2008 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Giambi is a .301/.436/.616 hitter in Arlington, but I didn’t look up what he was just with the A’s.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Giambi has always been a Ranger killer
I always grew up knowing the A’s as a bunch of solid players who you couldn’t pick out of a lineup if your life depended on it. Yet every year, they would find a way to beat you with that pitching.
This is an interesting move for sure. Holliday is quite a player, IMO.
"Relying on the government to protect your privacy is like asking a peeping tom to install your window blinds."
by Maximilian on Nov 10, 2008 3:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting...
This is kind of the anti-Beane move. But it does make sense. The A’s desperately needed someone like Holliday on their team. And I think that it makes sense in the big picture – at minimum he gets two #1 picks for him – and its very realistic to think that he gets 90% of that value back at the trade deadline.
That said, I don’t see how the A’s will be competitive next season unless they make some other splash elsewhere. Their rotation is pretty decimated at the moment, past Duchscherer they’ll have to rely on their young (admittedly promising) arms. There is little reason why you won’t just pitch around Holliday in that lineup (Ooooh… Jack Cust… oh no…)
Also, you have to think that he’s trading low on Huston Street. I think 2008 was a mistake for Beane – he should have looked as his team and traded guys like Street and Blanton before the season started.
by JBImaknee on Nov 10, 2008 3:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Were the A's under
any 40-man-trumps-all pressure? Did they create some roster room they needed?
by shroomer on Nov 10, 2008 3:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
look at that, they were last in hitting last year and they got a big name hitter.
gee, thats just crazy…
by Save us on Nov 10, 2008 3:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Good point Seth
if only we could acquire Halladay for Cruz, Hurley and FX2. I bet JD would be all over that!
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 10, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I propose...
…Andrus, Feliz, Cruz, Hurley, Harrison and Saltalamacchia for Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez!
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
by ghtd36 on Nov 10, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's rich.
"One man, five scoops." -- shroomer
by ghtd36 on Nov 10, 2008 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is bigger news?
the A’s acquire Holliday
or
Lisa loses 12 lbs in 2 weeks and goes from “flab to fab”?
"They shouldn't throw at me. I'm the father of five or six kids."
-Tito Fuentes, after getting hit by a pitch.
by Haeger Champ on Nov 10, 2008 3:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Nice deal by Oakland.
Reminds me a lot of the CoCo and crap for Carlos Lee and Cruz deal JD swung a while back.
Makes sense for both clubs.
This division is gonna be no joke the next 3 or 4 years.
Well, except for Seattle ;)
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 3:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Just keep Strasburg away from them
I’m a little afraid of a staff with him, Felix, Morrow, etc.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They're going to get a quality player regardless though.
Hopefully the Nats use their freaking brains and take Strasburg, but White/Ackley/Green aren’t exactly chopped liver.
If Aumont fulfills his potential and they re-sign Felix, they could have a pretty beastly rotation in a few years.
by LiamP on Nov 10, 2008 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't Strasburg say he would refuse to sign with Washington or Seattle?
by Inkara1 on Nov 10, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That would be fun
I hadn’t heard it.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hm... all I can find online now is some comments from one guy at LL.
by Inkara1 on Nov 10, 2008 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I can see a guy
wanting to avoid that Nationals organization. Everything you hear from the inside and outside is that they are horribly run as an organization. The Mariners part surprises me, unless he’s just trying to figure out a way to get to the Padres.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 5:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bascik shredded
the Nats this weeekend on the Ticket. Said he’d rather retire than go there…
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 5:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I was really surprised that he’d just come out and say that, especially since he’s not likely to have that many other options, if any.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 5:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're forgetting
Ticket Saturday afternoons!
I am the motherfucking shore patrol, motherfucker! I am the motherfucking shore patrol! Give this man a beer.
by TheBZA on Nov 11, 2008 8:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That'd be awesome
I went to several San Diego games at the end of the season to root for them to lose just so they’d pass Seattle for #2 in line behind Washington. Of course, the Padres are so inept they can’t even lose games when they need to.
I’m certain Strasburg would rather stay in San Diego than Seattle. But the question is does he have the guts to follow through the bluff. If I’m Seattle, I’m picking him anyway.
by JBImaknee on Nov 10, 2008 6:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
True.
But unless Dr. Zoinks can pull off some real magical magic I just can’t see them being a serious threat, Strasburg or no, before ’11 or ’12.
They have too many holes.
I guess it could happen if a bunch of things went right, but I don’t see it.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Premature
Let’s see how Strasburg handles this year and being a pro before we worry too much.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was just so impressed with him
while watching the olympics, even though he struggled at times.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 5:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But I'm very optimistic
that Seattle could ruin just about anyone and then trade them to Cleveland for a bag of balls. They’ll draft him and then immediately promote him to AA, make him a reliever and call him up to the majors, change his delivery and then send him back down to the minors and make him a starter again.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 8:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and just once more for the record:
~.850 OPS on the road from 2006-2008.
I’m just sayin’ is all…
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 3:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
are you saying that is low?
as someone said, he’ll likely overperform his road splits so you shouldn’t be all that shocked if he ends being >900OPS (which i would peg as a basement). Taking that into account, wouldn’t you still do the trade?
""If they'd have told me you can make the team but you've got to shine the shoes, I'd have been there shining shoes." -Bradley
by ab03 on Nov 10, 2008 4:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm saying Coors field has inflated his numbers and they'll come down a bit.
But yah I’d still do that deal if I was Oakland. A .300/.400/.500 player is still really, really good.
I expect him to be a .875-.925 OPS player this year, depending on how much Oakland depresses his average and power.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
contract year though
wouldn’t surprise me to see him explode this year.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Nov 10, 2008 4:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I hereby challenge you to convince me that the "contract year explosion" is not a myth.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Contract Years
Wikipedia has a short blurb. It also takes you to a book called Economics, Management, and Optimization in Sports.
I for one remain unconvinced about its existence in MLB. The NBA maybe.
"LSB: We’re all-scaploading, all the time." -AJM
by BAC on Nov 10, 2008 6:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The NBA absolutely.
But as far as MLB goes, I believe there’s no such thing as the “contract year performance boost”. Maybe in a very select few cases, but for the most part I don’t think it’s true.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 7:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think The Hardball Times
had a study that exploded that myth a year or two ago, but I’m way too lazy to search for it. Bugs me, too, when people trot that out.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 8:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oakland trade
so does this mean that the awful Rangers will now finish Last in the Division next year?
I soloed in the Mile High Club!
by horsedooty on Nov 10, 2008 3:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
How does this trade make Seattle jump us?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 3:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Right, because
Seattle is a model franchise this close to winning.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 4:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
right
ok I give yall that we are now in 3rd place if the team plays like they did last year?
I soloed in the Mile High Club!
by horsedooty on Nov 11, 2008 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Weird trade.
The Rockies couldn’t get a better package? Even though I think the A’s got a pretty good deal, I’m surprised to see them make it. It’s not their kind of move, and especially when they’re not “one piece away.”
That said. . .
Well, it could be that Billy Beane looks at the Angels and sees a team who well out-performed their expected won/loss record based on run differential, and could well be losing their closer and their starting first baseman. Beane could see the division as more winnable this year.
This is exactly why I want the Rangers to look in to how cheaply they can fix the bullpen and defense.
by philkid3 on Nov 10, 2008 3:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Rockies
Im guessing they looked at their division and see how winnable it is and figure that they are best served by getting ML ready players back instead of a bundle of prospects tat may take a couple years to help out. All three of these guys can step in immediately and play with two of them being under control for several years to come.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Nov 10, 2008 4:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The bullpen I think will be fine.
I hate spending money on bullpen arms. FX2 proved to me that he could handle the closers role. Behind him we’ve got Jack Benny and Ceej hopefully due for a return to form. Madrigal is only going to get better. Loe and Littleton can be useful. Gabbard and the Pirate play the LOOGY role if needed. Even Fuku might be useful with a year of acclimation under his belt. At most I’d say we could use one cheap veteran in here in the mold of a Guardado. Nothing expensive, though. Avoid paying solid money to non-closer relievers.
The defense all comes down to finding a good defensive 3b for next year. If it’s Metcalf, fine. If it’s trading for Marco Scutaro, I’ll do butt-naked backflips down the street.
Other than that I think simply having a full season from Cruz in RF and Davis at 1b will go a long way toward helping out the rest.
And if we get that and Kinz can somehow cut down on the dumb-dumb errors, we might just be much better than okay defensively.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 4:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
I know that the frugal sorts and statheads both agree that you skimp on the bullpen, but I don’t think that’s the right approach for the Rangers. I’m not saying that they should overpay for Brian Fuentes because he saved games. But I believe like philkid3 that, along with drastically improving their defense, having a dominant pen is a realistic way to really change their fortunes.
First of all, can you have dominant relievers in this park? Yes. That’s important because we’ve yet to prove that you can have a consistent, dominant starter or that the Rangers can locate that guy and get him here. The 1999 rotation was not good, but that team won a whole lot of games and a division because of an excellent offense and a dominant late relief group. Same goes for 2004, not a great rotation but very good late relief. Those are the only two good seasons that the team has had in the last decade, and they’re the two seasons where it had a great pen.
Best of all, dominant late relief, especially if you have three of them, is huge in the playoffs, as is the lack of it.
So, you’re argument is that resources need to be spent elsewhere. I’m not sure if you’re saying just for now or for the long run. I agree with the notion that bullpens are generally undependable, but that’s largely because of two things, injuries and relying on pitchers with mediocre talent who have had one good year. The Angels pen has not been unreliable or inconsistent over this era. The Yankees’ hasn’t. I know that I’m swimming against the stream here, but because of their situation, I think that the Rangers should place a real emphasis on putting together some pitchers who can anchor a dominant pen. Francisco and Wilson can be players in that, but in roles other than closer and preferably 8th inning as well. Maybe Madrigal has enough stuff to figure there. Maybe Strop does. Whatever, I believe that a way that this club can become pretty scary is to do the best that they can with their rotation, but if they can get it to an upper half group, follow it up with shut down guys at the end, and they will win a lot of games. That’s one reason I’m not going to shoot myself in the head if Feliz turns into a dominant reliever rather than what we’d like to see.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 4:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
interesting take
love reading your takes, especially when they buck the conventional wisdom around here.
I don't hate everything. In fact, I think LSB is just groovy.
by tricer on Nov 10, 2008 4:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually we agree.
I love the idea of a dominant reliever and think having a killer back end of the bullpen is a huge advantage and one of the reasons why Anaheim so consistently crushes the pythag W-L projections.
I guess I was assuming he was talking about free agency where there’s a tendency to, like you said, overpay for a guy like Fuentes because he’s saved games, or to throw big money at good but not great relievers like Juan Cruz or Scott Linebrink.
Yuck.
I totally agree building a butt nasty back end of the bullpen is a good way to maximize your team’s wins, but I don’t want to see us commit a ton of $$$’s to do it. I think it can be done cheaply and smartly.
And you’re not alone in thinking it wouldn’t be all bad if Feliz turned into a dominant closer. I’d love that. I’d love him as a starter more, obviously, but the idea of a real genuine door slammer out there in the ’pen makes my pants fit tighter.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Rule 5? No…talk to the hand.
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2008 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad we agree
I kind of thought I’d get hammered for that opinion.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 5:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Power bullpen
Between Diamond, Beau Jones, Feliz, Frankie, CJ (Who I think has some pride and will bounce back), and an outside acquisition, our bullpen could really come together come July-August next year.
by tyd3311 on Nov 10, 2008 5:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And, given that Arlington
seems to be such a difficult place for starters, having a really good bullpen is a way to leverage the middle innings when starters are getting tired in the heat. I’m counting on the rotation getting better over the next few years, but I’m not necessarily going to count on the starters pitching 7 and 8 innings all year long.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That could be a reason to be in on Cordero.
Coming off injury, he will be cheaper, cannot demand the closer’s role, and may be signed with some incentives. Get him for three years, if/when Strop or others of his ilk are ready to move up, Cordero could easily be flipped, especially considering how valuable BP guys are in July.
Would you go 3/15, including incentives for him?
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
2004
Rangers bullpen was incredible that year which basically kept them in the hunt all year. Just look at these numbers and tell me what’s most interesting.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TEX/2004.shtml
Is it Brian Shouse’s 226 ERA+? No, for me it’s the $14,000,000 towards the bottom.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
by WyoRanger on Nov 10, 2008 5:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wow
I remember that bullpen being good. But, Jesus. I don’t remember them being that good.
"LSB: We’re all-scaploading, all the time." -AJM
by BAC on Nov 10, 2008 6:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem was
everyone, management included, counted on them being just that good the next year.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Nov 10, 2008 8:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
As I said above, I think that injuries and selling yourself on guys with mediocre talent are what tend to cause that. The two very solid setup men, Almanzar and Francisco blew out their elbows, Mahay got hurt as well, as I recall, and guys like Mahay and Shouse are decent pitchers but not talented enough to sustain awesome seasons one after the other. I think that most of us felt like Cordero looked hurt for a fair portion of 2005 as well.
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 10:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
fwst blog
* General manager Jon Daniels said that infielder Joaquin Arias was put through a workout Monday in Arlington, and his arm strength has improved. He will return to the Dominican Republic and play shortstop later in the week under the watchful eyes of Scott Servais and A.J. Preller.
by tyd3311 on Nov 10, 2008 5:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
YAY!
This could be very good for the team, in many ways.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Nov 10, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
particularly in the “trade him at some point” way. :)
by Brett Perryman on Nov 10, 2008 5:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Laird + Arias for Bonderman would be nice.
Won’t happen, but doesn’t mean I can’t dream.
by LiamP on Nov 10, 2008 5:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sheesh
make it Laird and Padilla for Bonderman. That would be cool, too.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 10, 2008 6:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bonderman > Padilla
If you get a positive report on Bonderman’s health, he is a much better pitcher than Padilla.
When healthy, Bonderman posted a tRA+ of 105, 107, 131, 117, and 89.
In the same time period, Padilla, by comparison, posted a tRA+ of 79, 103, 102, 83, 88.
Bonderman, when healthy, is a decent upgrade over Padilla. If you take out last year for Bonderman and 2007 for Padilla (years where they were both hurt), Padilla has averaged a tRA of 93. Bonderman, by comparison, has averaged a tRA of 115. That makes Bonderman a really good #2 starter. Padilla, on the other hand, is an average #4 starter.
Here is more information on tRA+ and how it translates in rotation spots:
http://www.statcorner.com/blog/2008/10/rotation-slots-by-tra.html
Bottom line, Bonderman is a much better pitcher than Padilla when healthy and is younger. He also has more upside. If it only cost us Laird to upgrade one spot in our rotation like that, I would hope we would take it.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 10, 2008 6:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If nothing else
Padilla loves it here, and can handle the heat. I know, that’s two of the five points of necessity. The others being talent, durability, and good luck.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Nov 10, 2008 6:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My problem with Beane's approach,
or at least the current results of his approach, is that he has failed to actually develop a legitimate young core under team control for a long period of time since the big three were broken up. The Rangers have three guys (Kinsler, Hamilton, and Davis) on their 40 who I would take over any player on the A’s 40 when considering salaries and team control, and the talent coming through our system matches (at the very least) what is coming through their system.
As long as his MO is to trade guys like Haren and Swisher for more kids, and then trade those kids for a guy who nets draft picks the next winter, they will continue to be a second tier team with a first rate farm. Everyone loves to champion his approach, but this winter he looks like any other GM. Give him a little money, and he goes for quick fixes like Holliday and Giambi, instead of locking young guys in to long term deals.
by clark on Nov 10, 2008 5:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
As others have said...
a very unexpected move. I don’t think anyone could have sen this coming.
I agree with AJM here. Beane is just rolling the dice to see if the A’s can contend. If not, they take the picks or deal him at the deadline for a similar type package or maybe even better prospects.
The talk of he A’s going after Furcal or trying to get Giambi back are also interesting to me. Perhaps this makes the Angels think harder about spending more $ now thinking that they just won’t be handed the division in ’09.
I like seeing Gonzalez leave the AL West, I think Smith will fail miserably in the NL – especially at Coors, and who knows if Street will stay healthy. I have a bad feeling that Beane will find a way to make this look like another great deal for the A’s.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Nov 10, 2008 6:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Good move for Oakland
Greg Smith’s value is never gonna be higher. He really isn’t that great (5.34 tRA, 4.87 DIPS, 4.84 FIP, 5.36 xFIP) and I can’t imagine he will improve at Coors.
Street is pretty good, but getting expensive. Oakland has plenty of in-house replacement options for Street.
I guess this hinges on what you think of Carlos Gonzalez. All in all, I think Oakland made a good deal and even if they don’t contend and take draft picks, it’s a fair deal. Even from Colorado’s perspective, it isn’t a terrible deal. They can contend next year, and they have filled a couple holes on their roster.
by Stephen Rushin on Nov 10, 2008 6:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Kill me now.
Fox Sports headline-
Apparently, the Bay Area is a lovely place for a Holliday … Matt Holliday. The Rockies are close to sending their star OF to the A’s.
Fire Todd Dodge. Seriously. Back to Suckville with a loss to FLA ATL but whatever, SUCK IT WESTERN KENTUCKY! 1-9 baby!
by sprite on Nov 10, 2008 6:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Holliday to the A's
Just a thought – the A’s attendance was down about 13% last year at 1.66 million. Only KC was behind them in the AL. Beane is not immune to the necessity of having to get fans to come to the games. Last year’s A’s team wasn’t very good and their woeful offense was painfully boring to watch. Not sure how many tickets Holliday will sell, but it’s a sign to the fans that they’re committing to put a better team on the field in 2009.
by Randy Richardson on Nov 10, 2008 6:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Probably a factor
Although it cuts the other way for the Rockies – probably moreso. I know lots of Rockies fans and they’ve sworn up and down that they’d abandon the team if they didn’t sign Holliday to a new contract. That’s just anectodal and Holliday already implied he wasn’t going to re-sign with the Rox, so it probably made sense for them too.
Nothing pithy here. Please move long.
by WyoRanger on Nov 10, 2008 7:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, gutsy move by Beane
But I’m not sure if Holliday alone will revitalize their offense. This obviously solves their OF production problem, but that’s about it – their infield still looks like crap offensively.
Just say no to Scott Olsen.
by lonestarJon on Nov 10, 2008 8:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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