and not “yearly,” because I expect those guys to push for deals of five years and get at least four, while all indications are that Sheets will probably only get three.

I could easily see Ryan Dempster getting a four year, fifty million dollar deal, and Sheets signing for three years and 45 million.

it almost makes too much sense to happen.

Considering that Sheets has strong ties to the area and the pitching coach, and that the Rangers desperately need a pitcher of his stature and have the money to sign him, it only makes sense that they’d get together.

Yes he’s had injury problems. It’d be great to structure the deal with some protections against a cataclysmic failure of his arm. But those injury concerns exist regardless of where he goes, and they really exist for most possible pitching acquisitions out there.

but someone reputable recently wrote that after the arb raises, the current payroll will be about 6-7 million shy of last years number, and Hicks and JD have said that they expect to stay real close to the same payroll.

There isn’t much payroll room to play with.

This is me, teaching you to fish…

The guy, when healthy, is very good. That fastball can be blazing and he carries a nice sinker. He also doesn’t seem to give up a lot of homeruns which would be nice in this ballpark.

He does, however, seem to have an injury concern as well. He really seemed to wear down at the end of the 2007 season (where he was lights out in the first half) and as we know he was injured for the greater portion fo the 2008 season. I also read a scouting report which says he tends to wear down after the 5th inning. I have confidence in our bullpen rebounding, however I hate the idea of spending decent money on a guy who might not make it regularily past the 5th/6th. He averaged 6.3 Innings/Start in 2007 and 5.7 in 2006. He also pitched better on the road in 2007. Interesting.

than any of the rest of the Ranger arms.

which means he’ll probably get something like 4/65 guaranteed.

if we are aggressive at the onset and try to secure him before some of the other pitchers are taken off the market.

buy early if you are targeting a specific guy, and buy late if you are just targeting a specific need. Olney was quoted on ESPN today as saying he expects a large number of bargains to still be around in February because of the economy.

I’d put Sheets at #1 without even having to think about it.

there is a pretty decent chance we try pretty hard to unload either Millwood or Padilla. There are a couple of teams, including the Mets and Braves, who might be interested in Millwood considering it is a short commitment and that he has had success in the NL East before.

I would imagine that would be the best way to make this work financially.

Hicks has said he will raise payroll if its for the right players. Sheets fits that bill IMO. But we also have to count hammy and a possible extension in there as well. If they work one of those out and it goes toward this seasons payroll adding Sheets as well could push it toward 90 mil which I do think is out of the realm of possibility for next season.

If he’s interested at all you have to nab him. He’s the type of top of the rotation guy the Rangers long for.

Make it happy Big Daddy!!

wihere you have multiple years w/ vestiing incentives

Even if he thinks that i don’t see what he could do to mess with our 2010 chances. We have a ton of talent on the farm who are almost ready and even more a few years away. We won’t lose our 1st round draft pick if we sign a FA.

Here is a short list of potentially desirable pitchers who are eligibile to become unrestricted free agents in 2010:

Erik Bedard
Jose Contreras
Doog Davis
Justin Duscherer
Rich Harden
John Lackey
Brett Myers

These guys could be free agents if an option is declined:
Josh Beckett
Cliff Lee
Brandon Webb

There are a lot of potential aces coming available for 2010 as well.

Yes, I think that may have been a concern in his hiring.

is the paltry amount of money he has Tazawa signing for, and the 2/12 deal he has Wolf signing for. Weird, because last year he generally overshot his estimates.

That makes Buchholz a little more expendable… Seriously. That’s just too much starting pitching.

Sheets is one of those players that is a legit, #1 pitcher when healthy. Sheets has averaged a tRA+ of 133 over the last 5 years. That is well above the typical #1 starter. (With some years as high as 153 and 143). According to tRA, Sheets has been a #1 starter 4 of the last 5 years, and in the one year he wasn’t a legit #1, he was a very strong #2 starter. I see very little downside outside of health.

And, if there is no structural problem with his arm and he is willing to come to Texas, it’s a slam dunk. Sure there is a health risk, but he has started at least 24 games in every year except for one in his career.

And he is still only 30. Hell, if you are worried about payroll, trade Padilla or Millwood. I know people are talking about how this team can’t be competitive in 2009. Sure, they are unlikely to be competitive in 2009 with the current roster, but if they add Sheets and say trade Padilla and Laird for Bonderman, you suddenly have a very interesting team that could contend and isn’t mortgaging the future.

I don’t think that being competitive in 2009 has to necessarily mortgage the future. The only concern I can think of is the fact that you would want to leave 2 or 3 rotation spots open for young pitchers like Harrison/McCarthy/Hurley. But, you can still accomplish that goal even if you add Sheets.

But this is all a moo point if his medicals don’t come back looking pristine, no?

That makes me feel much better. I’m tired of the Rangers giving these huge contracts to people who haven’t earned them. What would you expect out of Sheets in a full year at RBiA?

I’m scared to consider what Harden’s pricetag might be if he pitches 200+ innings next year and becomes a FA

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